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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 2, 2025

[ Monday, December 1, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 3, 2025 ]

DAY 63 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/03/2025 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.68°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.11°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.419
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 81

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.39 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.54 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.63 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.17 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 11 in
SWE DAY: 30
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 302.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.38 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 143

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-03 07:00:05OBSERVATION20266314332.6800425.5300829.1050611.1728779166670.390.544.635.17TF0.6800480.6800430302.93385645636 3.3846429950120.4188166382134316 23133227WETL
2025-12-03 03:00:03OBSERVATION20266314332.6800425.5300829.1050611.1728779166670.390.544.635.17TF0.6800480.6800430302.93385645636 3.3846429950120.4188166382134316 23133227WETL
2025-12-02 11:00:01FORECAST20266314328.11223.70225.90710.0992656171380.0271653690.1771653694.634.807165369TF-3.88876.11230302.128393346213.05127489488260.227429078714981613123215WETL
2025-12-02 07:00:05FORECAST20266314328.74223.16225.95210.0704585748490.0799213030.2299213034.634.859921303TF-3.25876.74230302.106750979283.04235352091920.250625665079011623123218WETL
2025-12-02 03:00:03FORECAST20266314328.54423.46826.00610.0762468782550.0834646120.2334646124.634.863464612TF-3.45676.54430302.111099785633.0441460261010.243203214291181613123215WETL
2025-12-01 23:00:01FORECAST20266314327.98624.00825.99710.741991648360.1964567990.2164567994.634.846456799TF-4.01475.98630302.610853706643.25064326321980.222939063008971613123215WETL
2025-12-01 19:00:02FORECAST20266314327.96823.79225.8810.6804260152510.1846457690.2046457694.634.834645769TF-4.03275.96830302.564673751373.231519612830.222301772451741613123215WETL
2025-12-01 15:00:01FORECAST20266314328.27424.15226.21310.4975045310470.1366142470.1566142474.634.786614247TF-3.72676.27430302.427423001493.17473324327110.233275958583371613123215WETL
2025-12-01 11:00:01FORECAST20266314329.73224.4427.08610.5614237356710.1814961610.2014961614.634.831496161TF-2.26877.73230302.475390492663.19457076860550.289460518794961623123218WETL
2025-12-01 07:00:04FORECAST20266314329.73223.93626.83410.3922760275070.1602363070.1602363074.634.790236307TF-2.26877.73230302.348438418173.14208842852740.289460518794961623123218WETL
2025-12-01 03:00:02FORECAST20266314330.23624.72827.48210.4165388155690.1665355230.1765355234.634.806535523TF-1.76477.23630302.366651955383.14961396662680.310259192779781623123218WETL
2025-11-30 23:00:02FORECAST20266314330.59624.67427.63510.3484603609340.1149606920.1649606924.634.794960692TF-1.40469.59630302.315544124533.12850042486680.325501271505811623123218WETL
2025-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20266314330.0224.45827.23910.3613769184910.1444882670.2244882674.634.854488267TF-1.9869.0230302.325241516893.13250577933020.30126569414651623123218WETL
2025-11-30 15:00:01FORECAST20266314330.99224.22427.60810.4434036633730.1688977290.2588977294.634.888897729TF-1.00869.99230302.386817491743.15794759754890.342610104995811623123218WETL
2025-11-30 11:00:02FORECAST20266314329.87624.22427.0510.5980200345320.1834646660.2034646664.634.833464666TF-2.12469.87630302.502850292533.20593126790340.295335991954721623123218WETL
2025-11-30 07:00:05FORECAST20266314329.46223.43226.44710.3237631563090.1519685860.2019685864.634.831968586TF-2.53872.46230302.297001264063.12084264391270.278594320711761623123218WETL
2025-11-30 03:00:04FORECAST20266314329.78624.02626.90610.4171298770090.1775591510.2275591514.634.857559151TF-2.21471.78630302.36709563813.14979730579610.291657389048621623123218WETL
2025-11-29 23:00:03FORECAST20266314329.80424.1726.98710.3854457071680.1322835360.1322835364.634.762283536TF-2.19659.80430302.343310845613.13997003971260.29239140063291623123218WETL
2025-11-29 19:00:02FORECAST20266314329.40824.85427.13110.4618477250250.1228347120.1328347124.634.762834712TF-2.59255.40830302.400661344383.16366967093170.276445132040511623123218WETL
2025-11-29 15:00:01FORECAST20266314329.53424.74627.1410.3485354630430.1082677750.1082677754.634.738267775TF-2.46656.53430302.315600510033.12852371290920.281472488684251623123218WETL
2025-11-29 11:00:22FORECAST20266314329.33622.96426.1510.6772515431620.1826772640.1926772644.634.822677264TF-2.66456.33630302.562292406043.23053370349490.273592239367081623123218WETL
2025-11-29 07:00:03FORECAST20266314330.90223.05426.97810.4536159961030.1476378750.1476378754.634.777637875TF-1.09862.90230302.394482804843.16111580258210.338691708361891623123218WETL
2025-11-29 03:00:05FORECAST20266314330.14625.53827.8429.884252850.1153543930.1153543934.634.745354393TF-1.85460.14630301.966818763842.98471638897190.3064976909641623123218WETL
2025-11-28 23:00:02FORECAST20266314330.12824.5327.3297.08497373389030.169291430.239291434.664.89929143TF-1.87254.12830299.855185708022.12446611471210.305747811504411623124224WETL
2025-11-28 19:00:01FORECAST20266314329.19224.2626.7267.22272557103270.1586615030.2086615034.694.898661503TF-2.80853.19230299.959450267042.16652479171670.267930467982461623124224WETL
2025-11-28 15:00:02FORECAST20266314329.46225.10627.2847.29778730044320.1744095430.2244095434.714.934409543TF-2.53853.46230300.016249241942.18945477364440.278594320711761623124224WETL
2025-11-28 11:00:02FORECAST20266314330.88425.4328.1578.39231039299930.153543390.153543394.664.81354339TF-1.11655.88430300.843242388182.52476986975790.33791010177471623123218WETL
2025-11-28 07:00:07FORECAST20266314330.21825.21427.7168.18192375420690.1543307920.1543307924.634.784330792TF-1.78256.21830300.684458163422.46017731076810.309505287029491623124224WETL
2025-11-28 03:00:05FORECAST20266314330.61425.57428.0948.24520383236130.1622048120.1622048124.674.832204812TF-1.38660.61430300.73222619412.47959850393010.326271366199881623124224WETL
2025-11-27 23:00:02FORECAST20266314330.84825.30428.0767.21815553208020.133858340.343858344.935.27385834TF-1.15254.84830299.955991783172.16512900147030.336348984944571623124224WETL
2025-11-27 19:00:02FORECAST20266314330.75825.46628.1126.11477544105920.133858340.343858344.985.32385834TF-1.24258.75830299.119807054181.82905045010930.332458557865591623124224WETL
2025-11-27 15:00:03FORECAST20266314330.9225.30428.1125.95019863564670.169291430.389291434.965.34929143TF-1.0858.9230298.99488332961.77907894685310.339474009808381623124224WETL
2025-11-27 11:00:02FORECAST20266314330.43422.53226.4839.23641687677120.1480315760.3080315764.995.298031576TF-1.56656.43430301.479458852.7845899617220.318604216027181623123218WETL
2025-11-27 07:00:04FORECAST20266314330.14622.08226.1148.65488884864360.1468504730.3168504735.325.636850473TF-1.85457.14630301.041298124092.60547897411540.3064976909641623123218WETL
2025-11-27 03:00:05FORECAST20266314329.24621.97425.6113.8878024855810.15748040.32748045.185.5074804TF-2.75453.24630304.960918714174.23523700492360.270046709147531623123218WETL
2025-11-26 23:00:02FORECAST20266314332.16222.89227.5278.45154852896340.3637797240.3937797245.095.483779724TF0.16259.16230300.887935630752.54296898976290.394953857158031623123218WETL
2025-11-26 19:00:02FORECAST20266314332.5042327.7528.72043324699390.3637797240.3937797245.285.673779724TF0.50463.50430301.09071586992.62564148903310.410669324929981623123218WETL
2025-11-26 15:00:02FORECAST20266314332.16223.0927.6269.01640968584170.4196852660.4496852665.45.849685266TF0.16262.16230301.313767346092.71676837037670.394953857158031623123218WETL
2025-11-26 11:00:03FORECAST20266314330.14623.73826.94210.475858931640.5279530410.5479530414.885.427953041TF-1.85458.14630302.411177525073.16801683510390.3064976909641623133227WETL
2025-11-26 07:00:08FORECAST20266314331.06426.38428.7244.18284535474890.4889766420.4989766424.615.108976642TF-0.93660.06430297.650058893431.24502416618310.34575708009641623134236WETL
2025-11-26 03:00:04FORECAST20266314330.54226.4228.4812.21429347596880.3822836710.4122836714.685.092283671TF-1.45859.54230296.145013055270.655751970348980.323195460485791623124224WETL
2025-11-25 23:00:05FORECAST20266314331.26224.81828.040.0796349247177090.0996063530.0996063534.864.959606353TF-0.73858.26230294.504444052350.0234528392311390.35446578023411623124224WETL
2025-11-25 19:00:03FORECAST20266314332.01824.85428.4360.0795365247177090.1031496620.1031496625.065.163149662TF0.01800000000000157.01830294.504368222870.0234238539626310.388386013182661623124224WETL
2025-11-25 15:00:03FORECAST20266314331.71224.09827.9050.209324305549070.1051181670.1051181675.465.565118167TF-0.28856.71230294.604369434950.0616678550436930.374536942052971623124224WETL
2025-11-25 11:00:03FORECAST20266314333.90828.00430.9561.80337765545290.1622048120.1622048125.045.202204812TF1.90867.90830295.829899056450.533493029773270.476427440343741623124224WETL
2025-11-25 07:00:04FORECAST20266314330.16425.4327.79712.3692499502260.1598426060.1598426065.295.449842606TF-1.83659.16430303.828834626813.75813479758480.307248380800751623123218WETL
2025-11-25 03:00:05FORECAST20266314329.96625.57427.7714.1554468481980.3795277640.3795277645.395.769527764TF-2.03456.96630305.159995912494.31967610233570.29903577892991623123218WETL
2025-11-24 23:00:03FORECAST20266314331.49624.63828.06717.0857430653980.2641733710.2641733716.026.284173371TF-0.50444.49630307.330757367755.25097435647950.364856465131181623122212WETL
2025-11-24 19:00:04FORECAST20266314332.52224.63828.5817.441235411890.2641733710.2641733716.166.424173371TF0.52244.52230307.593008610365.36480207422480.411500679888151623122212WETL
2025-11-24 15:00:02FORECAST20266314331.42421.75826.59116.1633469993880.1122047850.1122047856.096.202204785TF-0.57641.42430306.649188647794.95647724319490.36164833345751623123218WETL
2025-11-24 11:00:02FORECAST20266314328.7624.11626.43816.3261856154530.1354331440.2254331446.056.275433144TF-3.2444.7630306.769628011385.00837788809720.251306324741781623122212WETL
2025-11-24 07:00:04FORECAST20266314329.96624.65627.31116.56531980290.1133858880.1833858886.196.373385888TF-2.03444.96630306.946407149425.08466539678130.29903577892991623122212WETL
2025-11-24 03:00:07FORECAST20266314330.75823.77427.26617.5636112160460.2055119220.2755119226.186.455511922TF-1.24247.75830307.683232028225.40402866504030.332458557865591623122212WETL
2025-11-23 23:00:06FORECAST20266314337.92231.02834.47517.5379320570990.1606300080.1606300086.086.240630008TF5.92241.92230307.664302003695.39579562493540.661834598423441633122214WETL
2025-11-23 19:00:02FORECAST20266314337.7631.22634.49317.8129891500370.1578741010.1578741016.226.377874101TF5.7642.7630307.867002911345.4840315825140.654773362095261633122214WETL
2025-11-23 15:00:03FORECAST20266314338.08431.33434.70917.285841808903006.356.35TF6.08442.08430307.478401896845.31502301484320.66883939539999163311227WETL
2025-11-23 11:00:02FORECAST20266314328.7617.18622.97315.0677610125360.0326771830.0326771835.215.242677183TF-3.2427.7630305.837570509534.60828742109220.25130632474178162311329WETL
2025-11-23 07:00:06FORECAST20266314328.7617.18622.9739.8123988869530.0326771830.0326771835.565.592677183TF-3.2427.7630301.912803346292.9624888555120.25130632474178162311329WETL
2025-11-23 03:00:04FORECAST20266314329.42620.37224.89914.5370257916990.0326771830.0326771836.46.432677183TF-2.57424.42630305.443585152024.4402412752640.2771606251933162311329WETL
2025-11-22 23:00:03FORECAST20266314326.0610.5818.3220.316819314944005.975.97TF-5.9418.0630309.705681118856.29223436410340.16081956519645161311225WETL
2025-11-22 19:00:03FORECAST20266314326.25810.5818.41919.215735189164005.685.68TF-5.74219.25830308.898544441995.93571263031550.16662969764595161311225WETL
2025-11-22 15:00:04FORECAST20266314329.60620.60625.10618.59472158968200.025.495.51TF-2.39427.60630308.44232118035.73539908882320.28436491018136162311226WETL
2025-11-22 11:00:02FORECAST20266314328.72426.34827.53624.979708707570.248031630.538031637.628.15803163TT-3.27620.72430313.098845886077.82111796691050.249945981767631623132218WETL
2025-11-22 07:00:05FORECAST20266314328.72426.34827.53619.9558074900640.248031630.538031637.868.39803163TT-3.27622.72430309.441294365286.17515089982990.249945981767631623132218WETL
2025-11-22 03:00:06FORECAST20266314332.52231.71232.11713.733159429759007.577.57TT0.52235.52230304.845831586384.18649640667320.41150067988815162311329WETH