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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 18, 2025

[ Wednesday, December 17, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, December 19, 2025 ]

DAY 79 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/19/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.26°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.709
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 122

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.51 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 5.09 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 23.27 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 28.36 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 23 in
SWE DAY: 14
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 293.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.80 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 159

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-19 07:00:03OBSERVATION20267915938.4699224.0600231.2649723.1577620833332.515.0923.2728.36TT6.46992122.4699214293.84184686432 6.80471957981120.7088786766645216 42152235WETL
2025-12-19 03:00:04OBSERVATION20267915938.4699224.0600231.2649723.1577620833332.515.0923.2728.36TT6.46992122.4699214293.84184686432 6.80471957981120.7088786766645216 42152235WETL
2025-12-18 11:00:01FORECAST20267915937.02223.30630.16422.2482790349373.5688995656.14889956523.2729.418899565TT5.022121.02214293.138634166366.52183012885340.648292977747221632152230WETL
2025-12-18 07:00:03FORECAST20267915936.01421.7428.87720.7554237037113.2433088385.82330883823.2729.093308838TT4.014120.01414291.980830283296.06018584589090.603644351803591632152230WETL
2025-12-18 03:00:06FORECAST20267915934.71822.67628.69721.5865055769092.8751984035.45519840323.2728.725198403TT2.718118.71814292.625928605846.31677123979830.5442615036151632152230WETL
2025-12-17 23:00:01FORECAST20267915934.7921.27228.03119.3275447987552.6322848866.13228488623.2729.402284886TT2.79115.7914290.869304409955.62178951156610.547599523148951632152230WETL
2025-12-17 19:00:01FORECAST20267915934.37622.11828.24718.5799727979032.8744110016.37441100123.2729.644411001TT2.376115.37614290.285750569065.3935013491920.528367212168971632152230WETL
2025-12-17 15:00:01FORECAST20267915934.66422.04628.35518.5421129853492.7870093796.28700937923.2729.557009379TT2.664115.66414290.256167753415.3819626571780.541755923962871632152230WETL
2025-12-17 11:00:02FORECAST20267915934.62822.02828.32823.9041226252872.5507887796.05078877923.2729.320788779TT2.628115.62814294.417720833877.03779730187030.540084609070731632152230WETL
2025-12-17 07:00:06FORECAST20267915935.2422.74828.99422.8337953091992.5287415236.15874152323.2729.428741523TT3.24116.2414293.591541856396.70380917126080.568376801131511632152230WETL
2025-12-17 03:00:03FORECAST20267915935.47422.9129.19222.7377345514232.649607736.3696077323.2729.63960773TT3.474116.47414293.517283260666.67391807303580.579110395008971632152230WETL
2025-12-16 23:00:02FORECAST20267915936.08622.40629.24622.4852337361082.7708676387.14086763823.2730.410867638TT4.086116.08614293.32200416036.59541382348780.606887012814611632152230WETL
2025-12-16 19:00:02FORECAST20267915935.40222.38828.89521.4076020772692.5129934836.95299348323.2730.222993483TT3.402115.40214292.487175999316.26144907649750.575813621683061632152230WETL
2025-12-16 15:00:02FORECAST20267915936.39222.58629.48921.3175821402042.3834658546.74346585423.2730.013465854TT4.392116.39214292.417335177336.23363056186230.620583245974491632152230WETL
2025-12-16 11:00:03FORECAST20267915935.13221.61428.37324.2569337059812.0578751276.35787512723.2729.627875127TT3.132115.13214294.689561665587.14826516116650.563405253349431632152230WETL
2025-12-16 07:00:04FORECAST20267915934.4321.52427.97726.66982734922.1039381446.22393814423.2729.493938144TT2.43113.4314296.542179680067.90872873382260.530880499915641632152230WETL
2025-12-16 03:00:04FORECAST20267915933.87221.63227.75227.4959474581841.913386866.2533868623.2729.52338686TT1.872112.87214297.17386939548.17107709884140.504868766764921632152230WETL
2025-12-15 23:00:03FORECAST20267915932.75621.21826.98729.0899461501761.9110246546.06102465424.430.461024654TT0.756103.75614298.388974831838.68011920966420.452893855559411622152225WETL
2025-12-15 19:00:01FORECAST20267915932.03620.5726.30330.9405020609431.7094497426.04944974224.430.449449742TT0.036000000000001103.03614299.793496551349.27576129790390.419730010970861622152225WETL
2025-12-15 15:00:02FORECAST20267915931.96420.89426.42932.1199201284231.7102371446.35023714424.430.750237144TT-0.036000000000001101.96414300.685204408449.65798474939760.416440778633091622152225WETL
2025-12-15 11:00:02FORECAST20267915931.94621.70426.82534.2100412269242.4889777227.24897772224.431.648977722TT-0.053999999999998102.94614302.2589092696610.340289747320.415619374331471622151212.5WETL
2025-12-15 07:00:04FORECAST20267915930.75821.39826.07832.8845560271662.5212612047.21126120424.2731.481261204TT-1.24298.75814301.261887417429.90686341562770.362383536809521622152225WETL
2025-12-15 03:00:06FORECAST20267915931.31621.75826.53734.1495184517512.5381903477.32819034724.3831.708190347TT-0.684101.31614302.2134575072110.320444043510.38712684665831622151212.5WETL
2025-12-14 23:00:03FORECAST20267915931.49622.08226.78934.3592817301882.5555131916.78551319124.431.185513191TT-0.50487.49614302.3709569592310.3892488971890.395212971636151622151212.5WETL
2025-12-14 19:00:02FORECAST20267915933.87221.86627.86929.1103571300982.566930526.5169305224.2330.74693052TT1.87289.87214298.404502245678.68666162960070.504868766764921632152230WETL
2025-12-14 15:00:03FORECAST20267915932.46821.25426.86130.5320503732122.3901587716.46015877123.9830.440158771TT0.46884.46814299.484060318799.14386241562720.439575458169461622152225WETL
2025-12-14 11:00:03FORECAST20267915931.08220.73225.90728.5642207911151.3496070285.64960702824.0629.709607028TT-0.91884.08214297.988757903218.51181667401760.376688138617381622152225WETL
2025-12-14 07:00:06FORECAST20267915930.34420.31825.33130.5673506194411.3362211945.52622119424.2429.766221194TT-1.65681.34414299.510815875919.15525212319370.34438362161541622152225WETL
2025-12-14 03:00:03FORECAST20267915929.94822.11826.03328.9977073545641.3263786695.09637866924.1729.266378669TT-2.05282.94814298.318795209058.65056112183810.327489184896171622152225WETL
2025-12-13 23:00:01FORECAST20267915929.15621.14625.15133.5520925347481.5110244385.52102443824.0429.561024438TT-2.84471.15614301.7644238560310.1248278729120.294765461950651622151212.5WETL
2025-12-13 19:00:02FORECAST20267915930.16421.0225.59232.1010251874891.5110244385.64102443824.1729.811024438TT-1.83673.16414300.670939791889.65184541140510.336663306859761622152225WETL
2025-12-13 15:00:04FORECAST20267915931.38822.20826.79828.4056788888591.3165361445.54653614423.9629.506536144TT-0.61276.38814297.867960395458.46114163427260.390355639690341622152225WETL
2025-12-13 11:00:03FORECAST20267915933.31422.71228.01327.8521362456851.6066937815.66669378123.8529.516693781TT1.31477.31414297.445819158338.28450148090730.478836309463331622152225WETL
2025-12-13 07:00:03FORECAST20267915931.42423.52227.47327.0770588172871.6066937815.48669378123.528.986693781TT-0.57679.42414296.853733386178.03792599902860.391972891159171622152225WETL
2025-12-13 03:00:04FORECAST20267915930.81223.64827.2328.5462758873031.6452764795.52527647923.6429.165276479TT-1.18880.81214297.975087620558.50607905875950.364754958470271622152225WETL
2025-12-12 23:00:02FORECAST20267915931.44222.126.77129.3880803140761.7692922945.25929229423.0628.319292294TT-0.55877.44214298.615696928568.77574208438010.392782219065791622152225WETL
2025-12-12 19:00:02FORECAST20267915932.3620.64226.50131.979445912991.7692922945.22929229423.0228.249292294TT0.3677.3614300.579137908399.61235428331450.434597810889481622152225WETL
2025-12-12 15:00:02FORECAST20267915931.33419.90425.61931.508478852641.6700796424.97007964223.0127.980079642TT-0.66672.33414300.223253121829.45957802205960.387933322939891622152225WETL
2025-12-12 11:00:03FORECAST20267915933.31421.23627.27529.0650649229421.8405521755.63055217523.3628.990552175TT1.31475.31414298.370045640938.67214474761470.478836309463331622152225WETL
2025-12-12 07:00:05FORECAST20267915933.02622.62227.82426.1141744311881.8610246275.60102462723.1828.781024627TT1.02682.02614296.116555501927.73283938233970.465428458723751622152225WETL
2025-12-12 03:00:04FORECAST20267915933.18822.47827.83327.6429867176471.8751978635.60519786323.1728.775197863TT1.18881.18814297.286163535078.21787746994040.472966527195611622152225WETL
2025-12-11 23:00:05FORECAST20267915934.30421.32627.81538.114233671581.9161427675.63614276724.4930.126142767TT2.30469.30414305.1761894116911.631556594240.525014421090621632151215WETL
2025-12-11 19:00:03FORECAST20267915934.30421.66827.98635.8051243815391.9161427675.63614276724.5130.146142767TT2.30472.30414303.4542793010110.8652182144830.525014421090621632151215WETL
2025-12-11 15:00:03FORECAST20267915933.47621.45227.46434.9523993123131.8035442815.57354428124.6230.193544281TT1.47674.47614302.8158417789510.5841402199520.486389744307981622151212.5WETL
2025-12-11 11:00:03FORECAST20267915929.37223.41426.39342.0354548540622.0141743165.38417431623.7629.144174316TT-2.62867.37214308.0772188547912.9501660247350.303540390216911622151212.5WETL
2025-12-11 07:00:04FORECAST20267915928.50822.4625.48435.8090384194561.9236230865.26362308624.2329.493623086TT-3.49269.50814303.4572065646210.8665107685330.269168005756791622151212.5WETL
2025-12-11 03:00:08FORECAST20267915929.73222.7326.23127.8893442390161.8748041625.37480416224.0529.424804162TT-2.26875.73214297.474213231358.29636073503980.31841799704071622152225WETL
2025-12-10 23:00:02FORECAST20267915930.99220.71425.85341.5031176270611.5500008374.52000083725.1529.670000837TT-1.00873.99214307.685073820412.7698898108590.372696663122041622151212.5WETL
2025-12-10 19:00:04FORECAST20267915930.95621.07426.01545.9479418083061.5500008374.52000083724.6929.210000837TT-1.04468.95614310.9431316933214.2871969207370.371103863870741622151212.5WETL
2025-12-10 15:00:02FORECAST20267915932.25221.226.72648.094176329741.8007883744.80078837424.629.400788374TT0.25269.25214312.5032024289315.0295841212250.429630508500931622151212.5WETL
2025-12-10 11:00:04FORECAST20267915935.8721.45228.66142.0581701156972.511812386.5818123825.2731.85181238TT3.8775.8714308.0939402091712.9578673489330.597137693524621632151215WETL
2025-12-10 07:00:06FORECAST20267915935.8721.45228.66135.6770214826882.511812386.5818123825.3231.90181238TT3.8780.8714303.3584565624410.8229261717330.597137693524621632151215WETL
2025-12-10 03:00:04FORECAST20267915936.75226.36631.55938.6403978330362.326772916.6167729125.1131.72677291TT4.75280.75214305.5671408855711.8072358885220.636503708029261632151215WETL
2025-12-09 23:00:03FORECAST20267915932.39625.7929.09340.323196645642.0224420375.03244203725.7230.752442037TT0.39668.39614306.8139952329312.3717210634120.436255915361431622151212.5WETL
2025-12-09 19:00:02FORECAST20267915932.39625.7929.09346.0006227184042.0224420375.03244203725.3130.342442037TT0.39662.39614310.9815266828614.3053438813320.436255915361431622151212.5WETL
2025-12-09 15:00:03FORECAST20267915933.36827.33830.35331.8006082291792.1724421185.22244211824.7329.952442118TT1.36862.36814300.444049906229.55430352585570.481353410907251622152225WETL
2025-12-09 11:00:03FORECAST20267915947.62436.55442.08926.0531268650531.5429142195.29291421924.3229.612914219TT15.62480.62414296.069757085967.71354294226580.947637776006141652152240WETM
2025-12-09 07:00:06FORECAST20267915947.62436.55442.08925.9375932276081.5429142195.29291421925.1530.442914219TT15.62483.62414295.981170361997.67703919988060.947637776006141652152240WETM
2025-12-09 03:00:04FORECAST20267915944.94236.21240.57725.3008655533961.2015754524.65157545225.0729.721575452TT12.94275.94214295.492485507917.47621564787450.904529141780011652152240WETM
2025-12-08 23:00:03FORECAST20267915940.85638.51639.68624.9532740159410.2476379294.22763792926.2430.467637929TT8.85679.85614295.225377308717.36683973644370.796535691118331642152235WETL
2025-12-08 19:00:03FORECAST20267915940.85638.51639.68623.5785949785050.2476379294.22763792926.5930.817637929TT8.85683.85614294.166685709876.93603713852220.796535691118331642152235WETL
2025-12-08 15:00:02FORECAST20267915937.7635.6936.72522.8262200304850.6452759394.93527593926.5731.505275939TT5.7682.7614293.585686537746.70145147871140.679769796197521632152230WETL
2025-12-08 11:00:03FORECAST20267915944.54643.30443.92522.61575354844602.1427.3229.46TT12.54695.54614293.422961220386.63598137641540.896416032857151652152240WETM
2025-12-08 07:00:07FORECAST20267915944.54643.30443.92521.90130793078902.1426.5728.71TT12.54698.54614292.869927572796.41423446743930.896416032857151652152240WETM
2025-12-08 03:00:06FORECAST20267915937.36437.0437.20224.5147380606390225.2927.29TT5.36467.36414294.888045859787.22910320146610.663022612292521632152230WETL