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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 17, 2025

[ Tuesday, December 16, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, December 18, 2025 ]

DAY 78 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/18/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.74°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.88°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.31°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.590
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 123

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.95 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.86 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 20.99 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 25.85 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 15 in
SWE DAY: 15
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 288.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.35 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 158

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-18 07:00:03OBSERVATION20267815836.7399421.8800429.3099915.0819908333330.954.8620.9925.85TT4.73994122.7399415288.71758723387 4.35443600408340.5896685053315816 32153245WETL
2025-12-18 03:00:05OBSERVATION20267815836.7399421.8800429.3099915.0819908333330.954.8620.9925.85TT4.73994122.7399415288.71758723387 4.35443600408340.5896685053315816 32153245WETL
2025-12-17 11:00:01FORECAST20267815834.1617.76225.96117.9626406661441.8692923485.77929234820.9926.769292348TT2.16120.1615290.971572655515.22661780367380.463746985528241622152225WETL
2025-12-17 07:00:06FORECAST20267815834.4317.52825.97918.1637689482562.0043317915.91433179120.9926.904331791TT2.43120.4315291.128331858445.2879877541680.47697356002841622152225WETL
2025-12-17 03:00:03FORECAST20267815834.2516.95225.60118.8792889823992.0893712075.99937120720.9926.989371207TT2.25120.2515291.685358766095.50681218007980.468152120119231622152225WETL
2025-12-16 23:00:01FORECAST20267815835.31218.39226.85218.4988946299851.8960640166.64606401620.9927.636064016TT3.312119.31215291.389350694185.39038089479140.520280476346871632152230WETL
2025-12-16 19:00:01FORECAST20267815834.82619.16626.99618.1320188740481.9696861036.71968610320.9927.709686103TT2.826118.82615291.103591201855.27829580997510.496414402164471622152225WETL
2025-12-16 15:00:01FORECAST20267815835.31219.47227.39218.6422881270621.8940955116.64409551120.9927.634095511TT3.312119.31215291.500967516535.43424502576060.520280476346871632152230WETL
2025-12-16 11:00:02FORECAST20267815834.84418.73426.78921.9465869499821.8259852386.57598523820.9927.565985238TT2.844118.84415294.061788367746.453652607080.497298628804861622152225WETL
2025-12-16 07:00:04FORECAST20267815834.82617.1525.98823.088067200221.8901585016.40015850120.9927.390158501TT2.826117.82615294.941448832746.80962799078040.496414402164471622152225WETL
2025-12-16 03:00:04FORECAST20267815835.09617.40226.24923.9968026244771.874016766.6240167620.9927.61401676TT3.096118.09615295.639927697897.09441299288080.509677218743791632152230WETL
2025-12-15 23:00:03FORECAST20267815833.5317.11425.32223.9115111282471.6401583667.56015836620.9928.550158366TT1.53109.5315295.574438861287.0676314840570.433065207711871622152225WETL
2025-12-15 19:00:01FORECAST20267815833.74617.58225.66425.8744878504131.8129931057.75299310520.9928.742993105TT1.746109.74615297.078070640817.68674292941980.443548810574071622152225WETL
2025-12-15 15:00:01FORECAST20267815832.9917.70825.34927.075078733971.8244104348.05441043420.9929.044410434TT0.99108.9915297.994030049048.06821182583070.407076934240581622152225WETL
2025-12-15 11:00:02FORECAST20267815833.5318.5926.0626.8824631743411.7342529058.17425290520.9929.164252905TT1.53109.5315297.847267097718.00686818933220.433065207711871622152225WETL
2025-12-15 07:00:04FORECAST20267815830.61418.5924.60227.5814619997711.5181110567.96811105620.9928.958111056TT-1.386106.61415298.379525187198.22974353546010.298869185169031622152225WETL
2025-12-15 03:00:06FORECAST20267815832.10818.57225.3428.8240401236721.5055126248.17551262420.9929.165512624TT0.108109.10815299.323366030558.6277087124170.365543552692291622152225WETL
2025-12-14 23:00:02FORECAST20267815830.39818.21224.30525.386012072821.429134637.5291346321.128.62913463TT-1.60295.39815296.704600667627.53214657460940.289701951304541622152225WETL
2025-12-14 19:00:01FORECAST20267815830.23618.28424.2622.9235085928471.311024337.0810243321.128.18102433TT-1.76495.23615294.814792093996.7581894198650.28291423281611622152225WETL
2025-12-14 15:00:03FORECAST20267815827.55417.92422.73923.5297384578691.2830715596.95307155921.128.053071559TT-4.44690.55415295.2811307966.94788777917370.182850939615111612152220WETL
2025-12-14 11:00:03FORECAST20267815827.69818.0522.87423.6860188662251.4937015947.26370159421.128.363701594TT-4.30291.69815295.401232194326.99687915886070.187589875013841612152220WETL
2025-12-14 07:00:05FORECAST20267815827.87817.92422.90125.4123109712641.4708669367.27086693621.1628.430866936TT-4.12289.87815296.724719607997.54046084753910.193618936244671612152220WETL
2025-12-14 03:00:03FORECAST20267815827.9518.5923.2722.7589656905421.4314968366.80149683621.1427.941496836TT-4.0591.9515294.688094499736.70679623213060.196063210164471612152220WETL
2025-12-13 23:00:01FORECAST20267815827.3218.15822.73925.4322349585991.6228355226.87283552221.1828.052835522TT-4.6881.3215296.739960778017.54676040411170.175310814056871612152220WETL
2025-12-13 19:00:02FORECAST20267815827.75217.94222.84725.1547527693831.5673236817.22732368121.0728.297323681TT-4.24881.75215296.527626930497.45907914472830.189386322401811612152220WETL
2025-12-13 15:00:03FORECAST20267815827.10418.46422.78423.5430281962921.4826779667.15267796621.0428.192677966TT-4.89684.10415295.291345806656.95205248044690.168527944774881612152220WETL
2025-12-13 11:00:02FORECAST20267815825.9717.54621.75824.4275280052081.7192922676.76929226721.1427.909292267TT-6.0382.9715295.970432227127.22982602194140.135719480077111612152220WETL
2025-12-13 07:00:03FORECAST20267815826.67220.22823.4522.7935064129561.7192922676.11929226721.2627.379292267TT-5.32886.67215294.714695154816.71758129400350.155474501602931612152220WETL
2025-12-13 03:00:04FORECAST20267815827.24820.40823.82822.2188003894041.6586623136.20866231321.3127.518662313TT-4.75289.24815294.271796222666.53836630050260.17303091908011612152220WETL
2025-12-12 23:00:02FORECAST20267815827.39220.3923.89122.607820842481.169291975.4792919721.0726.54929197TT-4.60885.39215294.571666702226.65962346607450.177609619596371612152220WETL
2025-12-12 19:00:02FORECAST20267815829.33619.07624.20623.7525865835311.169291975.3792919721.126.47929197TT-2.66484.33615295.452374967797.01775811773220.246657387802261612152220WETL
2025-12-12 15:00:02FORECAST20267815825.26819.14822.20824.0469777002420.9972446335.23724463321.0726.307244633TT-6.73280.26815295.678446685277.11017301388280.117751757213771612152220WETL
2025-12-12 11:00:02FORECAST20267815825.86219.50822.68522.2401555557051.2614180045.80141800421.3527.151418004TT-6.13880.86215294.288265214196.54501679658210.132839624788691612152220WETL
2025-12-12 07:00:05FORECAST20267815827.39220.94824.1719.5242996609441.2346463365.64464633621.2826.924646336TT-4.60888.39215292.1866277855.70473927779510.177609619596371612152220WETL
2025-12-12 03:00:04FORECAST20267815826.7820.67823.72921.285851654031.3492133275.53921332721.3626.899213327TT-5.2286.7815293.551438393666.24849237047470.15867375547191612152220WETL
2025-12-11 23:00:05FORECAST20267815824.83620.42622.63133.6459244516781.0732289266.38322892621.8328.213228926TT-7.16473.83615302.9579064839410.1932988335970.107566605100861612151210WETL
2025-12-11 19:00:03FORECAST20267815825.50220.73223.11731.3574203575021.0732289266.42322892621.8128.233228926TT-6.49876.50215301.238474448849.44606147114470.123544425361361612152220WETL
2025-12-11 15:00:03FORECAST20267815826.07820.37223.22530.7200301841880.9559060286.58590602821.828.385906028TT-5.92280.07815300.757799035439.23928866449840.138641684073461612152220WETL
2025-12-11 11:00:02FORECAST20267815825.19621.3823.28831.9613568075460.9311028655.53110286521.627.131102865TT-6.80477.19615301.693203942339.64252413761240.116008578572611612152220WETL
2025-12-11 07:00:04FORECAST20267815827.71621.36224.53929.0135155209850.9232288455.49322884522.0827.573228845TT-4.28479.71615299.46702669118.68859122692530.188187520130711612152220WETL
2025-12-11 03:00:08FORECAST20267815828.68822.15425.42122.6644530713380.9807091915.63070919121.9227.550709191TT-3.31284.68815294.615296089556.67729455231980.222177806888661612152220WETL
2025-12-10 23:00:02FORECAST20267815830.9220.22825.57432.8721748199591.4007881585.15078815822.9728.120788158TT-1.0881.9215302.377679709849.93981194907560.312076537739071622152225WETL
2025-12-10 19:00:03FORECAST20267815828.4920.49824.49437.3977967074571.4007881585.15078815822.5127.660788158TT-3.5177.4915305.7552822066211.4345738861940.21498363104021612151210WETL
2025-12-10 15:00:02FORECAST20267815827.5920.58824.08938.8268530402051.3692920785.35929207822.2427.599292078TT-4.4175.5915306.8137877590311.9126138480280.184028627673391612151210WETL
2025-12-10 11:00:03FORECAST20267815827.60820.96624.28737.3992240219851.6003945656.23039456523.1129.340394565TT-4.39278.60815305.7563413399911.4350499059170.184619234567731612151210WETL
2025-12-10 07:00:06FORECAST20267815830.03820.96625.50231.0180753889761.6003945656.23039456523.1629.390394565TT-1.96284.03815300.982660903229.33590286667080.274723183879981622152225WETL
2025-12-10 03:00:04FORECAST20267815830.81224.78227.79735.6058134340292.1645680986.46456809822.9429.404568098TT-1.18882.81215304.4225145126810.8392112568570.307386308620231622151212.5WETL
2025-12-09 23:00:03FORECAST20267815830.32623.927.11332.9330298462322.0346467685.67464676823.0628.734646768TT-1.67475.32615302.423355586819.9597173957380.286675769241011622152225WETL
2025-12-09 19:00:02FORECAST20267815828.59823.926.24938.6104559189962.0346467685.67464676822.6528.324646768TT-3.40268.59815306.653748625811.8400410437110.218890860152291612151210WETL
2025-12-09 15:00:03FORECAST20267815830.25426.8728.56231.8270778291791.9519695585.54196955822.2427.781969558TT-1.74668.25415301.592159873099.59879714495110.283664643058961622152225WETL
2025-12-09 11:00:03FORECAST20267815840.76629.96635.36627.2655132650532.3653556085.27535560822.7928.065355608TT8.76671.76615298.13906060038.12891451162790.765003575769991642152235WETL
2025-12-09 07:00:05FORECAST20267815840.76629.96635.36627.1499796276082.3653556085.27535560823.6228.895355608TT8.76674.76615298.051081213828.09208078294160.765003575769991642152235WETL
2025-12-09 03:00:04FORECAST20267815840.06430.0235.04226.3424295533962.1625995934.85259959323.6728.522599593TT8.06470.06415297.435406738757.83517124870140.737622012998181642152235WETL
2025-12-08 23:00:03FORECAST20267815842.83634.41238.62425.2814380159412.5897651786.36976517823.8530.219765178TT10.83677.83615296.624587090527.49909611253290.835838814726871642152235WETL
2025-12-08 19:00:03FORECAST20267815842.83634.41238.62423.9067589785052.5897651786.36976517824.230.569765178TT10.83681.83615295.570789630567.06613962878430.835838814726871642152235WETL
2025-12-08 15:00:02FORECAST20267815840.08231.49635.78923.0415192304852.7468518776.53685187724.3230.856851877TT8.08284.08215294.905627367266.7950736841610.738343933301081642152235WETL
2025-12-08 11:00:03FORECAST20267815843.21434.62838.92123.1448503484461.6279536353.98795363525.4729.457953635TT11.21490.21415294.985141150216.8273869469370.84710128421381642152235WETL
2025-12-08 07:00:07FORECAST20267815843.21434.62838.92122.4304047307891.6279536353.98795363524.7228.707953635TT11.21493.21415294.434944951616.6042949821520.84710128421381642152235WETL
2025-12-08 03:00:06FORECAST20267815837.95831.4634.70924.5716132606391.6429142734.00291427323.2927.292914273TT5.95868.95815296.080911150737.27518564265330.646795765525891632152230WETL
2025-12-07 23:00:03FORECAST20267815837.00427.73432.36922.9779536938910.1795276563.27952765622.0425.319527656TT5.00467.00415294.85670301816.77520366828330.602262793768311632152230WETL
2025-12-07 19:00:03FORECAST20267815837.00427.73432.36920.9383448751720.1795276563.27952765622.0525.329527656TT5.00465.00415293.282681301316.14085392700210.602262793768311632152230WETL
2025-12-07 15:00:03FORECAST20267815828.77824.13426.45634.806790350430.5129924034.24299240322.4826.722992403TT-3.22257.77815303.8262916696810.5752180370950.225492690860711612151210WETL
2025-12-07 11:00:05FORECAST20267815836.5931.96434.27725.2200257710910.3795277642.34952776421.323.649527764TT4.5965.5915296.577588346487.47969442122620.582474868330911632152230WETL
2025-12-07 07:00:07FORECAST20267815836.5931.96434.27725.1040644842170.3795277642.35952776420.9923.349527764TT4.5958.5915296.488823268687.44307453818650.582474868330911632152230WETL
2025-12-07 03:00:07FORECAST20267815831.26230.79431.02825.9138458656270.0555118412.19551184120.9423.135511841TT-0.73846.26215297.108142113027.69921460013970.327127986965371622152225WETL