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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 16, 2025

[ Monday, December 15, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 17, 2025 ]

DAY 77 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/17/2025 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.54°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.713
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 125

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.63 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 20.85 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 24.90 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 13 in
SWE DAY: 16
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 288.00 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.65 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 157

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 52.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-17 07:00:06OBSERVATION20267715737.7631.3100634.5350312.6689379166671.634.0520.8524.9TT5.76124.7616287.99661435155 3.648611227430.7130632836371416 42153252.5WETH
2025-12-17 03:00:03OBSERVATION20267715737.7631.3100634.5350312.6689379166671.634.0520.8524.9TT5.76124.7616287.99661435155 3.648611227430.7130632836371416 42153252.5WETH
2025-12-16 11:00:01FORECAST20267715735.99627.06831.53214.8549685473142.4744107854.89441078520.8525.744410785TT3.996122.99616289.712590015814.30367141244570.630238681332531632153245WETL
2025-12-16 07:00:04FORECAST20267715735.2426.49230.86615.6616417636172.2303161654.65031616520.8525.500316165TT3.24122.2416290.343404126114.54725438385230.592497054190871632153245WETL
2025-12-16 03:00:04FORECAST20267715735.43826.07830.75815.9128166815482.4688989714.88889897120.8525.738898971TT3.438122.43816290.539557824894.62330272240560.602480900372371632153245WETL
2025-12-15 23:00:02FORECAST20267715735.2426.04230.64117.0327300716452.5063005666.05630056620.8526.906300566TT3.24115.2416291.412626848774.96355261258420.592497054190871632153245WETL
2025-12-15 19:00:01FORECAST20267715735.07825.28630.18218.1607805316842.5283478226.07834782220.8526.928347822TT3.078115.07816292.289532357495.30820604885280.58428321562131632152230WETL
2025-12-15 15:00:01FORECAST20267715735.09626.36630.73119.2525282446812.8165369546.36653695420.8527.216536954TT3.096115.09616293.135828213345.64360581220520.585197754723081632152230WETL
2025-12-15 11:00:02FORECAST20267715735.13226.65430.89319.69192467253.0271669896.57716698920.8527.427166989TT3.132115.13216293.475775688555.77910286806230.587025443811781632152230WETL
2025-12-15 07:00:04FORECAST20267715734.03426.07830.05621.134286359023.1712615556.59126155520.8527.441261555TT2.034115.03416294.589023384486.22592877843160.530617840142251632152230WETL
2025-12-15 03:00:05FORECAST20267715734.75425.75430.25422.4426628613493.2842537426.81425374220.8527.664253742TT2.754115.75416295.595336514976.63394648079250.56774811045491632152230WETL
2025-12-14 23:00:02FORECAST20267715733.96225.41229.68718.8428272569242.7960645026.34606450220.8527.196064502TT1.962103.96216292.818513193725.51752866173860.526884668744211632152230WETL
2025-12-14 19:00:01FORECAST20267715733.78225.93429.85816.9198973583532.6370092986.01700929820.8526.867009298TT1.782103.78216291.32477648384.9291853160510.517542119533351632153245WETL
2025-12-14 15:00:02FORECAST20267715732.23426.00629.1216.9376528079832.7862219775.91622197720.8526.766221977TT0.234102.23416291.338602359624.93459209633020.437335155814171622153237.5WETL
2025-12-14 11:00:03FORECAST20267715732.57627.42830.00216.1038026915542.8063007286.01630072820.8526.866300728TT0.576102.57616290.688623588734.68119223895240.454950213497791622153237.5WETL
2025-12-14 07:00:05FORECAST20267715732.30627.96830.13717.959637500672.7169306016.10693060120.8526.956930601TT0.306101.30616292.133355069085.24660915889520.441034478992311622152225WETL
2025-12-14 03:00:03FORECAST20267715732.64828.68830.66815.3855424323062.342520955.6625209520.8526.51252095TT0.648102.64816290.127641405614.46377113763080.458671154340571622153237.5WETL
2025-12-13 23:00:01FORECAST20267715732.34228.05830.216.3478649219252.3901587715.58015877120.8526.430158771TT0.34293.34216290.879010452564.75525077150160.442886092446611622153237.5WETL
2025-12-13 19:00:02FORECAST20267715731.76627.03229.39916.3681913421162.5574816965.87748169620.8526.727481696TT-0.23492.76616290.894861262984.76142274959060.413436942911081622153237.5WETL
2025-12-13 15:00:03FORECAST20267715732.10828.59830.35315.2515217673252.7503951865.86039518620.8526.710395186TT0.10896.10816290.022854016514.42328987105440.430874692273751622153237.5WETL
2025-12-13 11:00:02FORECAST20267715733.99827.66230.8314.9285246702252.3433083525.34330835220.8526.193308352TT1.99895.99816289.770164077654.32584104312840.528751570238551632153245WETL
2025-12-13 07:00:03FORECAST20267715731.96428.3130.13713.6351083991232.1578751814.80787518120.8525.657875181TT-0.03600000000000198.96416288.756207461063.93722218965110.423513987027221622153237.5WETL
2025-12-13 03:00:04FORECAST20267715733.56629.91231.73913.8136054315692.2173240325.00732403220.8525.857324032TT1.566100.56616288.896336066643.99069999705060.506318783595791632153245WETL
2025-12-12 23:00:02FORECAST20267715733.51229.26431.38816.1472214657062.3220484984.61204849820.7725.382048498TT1.51296.51216290.722502123654.69436062685480.503511820340741632153245WETL
2025-12-12 19:00:02FORECAST20267715732.3627.98630.17316.5865839265532.291339824.5413398220.7725.31133982TT0.3694.3616291.06511505734.82777595898960.443812369711771622153237.5WETL
2025-12-12 15:00:02FORECAST20267715733.00826.49229.7517.9550399197592.2972453354.53724533520.7725.307245335TT1.00894.00816292.129784349535.24520193974620.477323723820851622152225WETL
2025-12-12 11:00:02FORECAST20267715733.51227.24830.3814.751472754132.5251982145.11519821420.7725.885198214TT1.51293.51216289.631563271024.27249211432870.503511820340741632153245WETL
2025-12-12 07:00:04FORECAST20267715734.48430.0232.25212.4740372333332.5066942674.91669426720.7725.686694267TT2.484100.48416287.843159401583.59056628773560.553876328111811632153245WETH
2025-12-12 03:00:04FORECAST20267715733.78228.50831.14513.3166863502872.3787414424.76874144220.7825.548741442TT1.78298.78216288.506073293943.84194488820840.517542119533351632153245WETL
2025-12-11 23:00:05FORECAST20267715729.94825.08827.51826.6428427798782.6539384415.81393844121.3327.143938441TT-2.05287.94816298.803318281837.96096983108850.324333856902251622152225WETL
2025-12-11 19:00:02FORECAST20267715730.36225.73628.04924.4979599992352.6539384415.83393844121.3327.163938441TT-1.63890.36216297.169392107627.28004388084930.34396524192151622152225WETL
2025-12-11 15:00:02FORECAST20267715730.72226.45628.58924.6294808570522.8141747486.10417474821.3327.434174748TT-1.27892.72216297.269838291717.32160179158480.361387011762731622152225WETL
2025-12-11 11:00:02FORECAST20267715731.20825.95228.5826.0287077185512.4393713964.84937139621.3526.199371396TT-0.79291.20816298.336392369157.76531075878350.385363490205591622152225WETL
2025-12-11 07:00:04FORECAST20267715730.93828.25629.59723.2460418782882.4216548514.84165485121.8126.651654851TT-1.06290.93816296.211585215266.88574691474810.371982490900081622152225WETL
2025-12-11 03:00:07FORECAST20267715733.02628.1330.57817.096047437782.5248045134.96480451321.6126.574804513TT1.02695.02616291.461914057314.982846709030.47825800063051622153237.5WETL
2025-12-10 23:00:02FORECAST20267715732.07227.529.78626.5232910109121.5661425784.19614257822.5226.716142578TT0.07200000000000390.07216298.712480345567.92283804479680.429032159415411622152225WETL
2025-12-10 19:00:03FORECAST20267715732.14425.3428.74228.6254239009141.5661425784.20614257822.0526.256142578TT0.14488.14416300.305710191088.59637825408480.432718730799251622152225WETL
2025-12-10 15:00:02FORECAST20267715731.78426.0628.92229.4504480613511.6271662334.41716623321.8126.227166233TT-0.21686.78416300.928684319768.86248458772990.414350790931691622152225WETL
2025-12-10 11:00:03FORECAST20267715732.86426.3329.59726.763469915382.4720485795.70204857922.0427.742048579TT0.86489.86416298.894945351097.99946587776310.469854425481631622152225WETL
2025-12-10 07:00:06FORECAST20267715732.34226.629.47125.2465701383082.4720485795.70204857922.0927.792048579TT0.34293.34216297.740678947957.51693093408690.442886092446611622152225WETL
2025-12-10 03:00:04FORECAST20267715731.98225.21428.59825.7479455493992.129922415.3699224121.8727.23992241TT-0.01800000000000190.98216298.122686611767.67604670192010.424432672018441622152225WETL
2025-12-09 23:00:03FORECAST20267715732.28826.27629.28222.227313391540.9787406864.42874068622.2726.698740686TT0.28884.28816295.429934364166.56661373635430.440109152770161622152225WETL
2025-12-09 19:00:02FORECAST20267715731.58626.07828.83224.2683514122260.9787406864.42874068621.8626.288740686TT-0.41478.58616296.9939531167.20755362152540.404325021452381622152225WETL
2025-12-09 15:00:03FORECAST20267715732.2726.54629.40823.1226826284161.1000005944.30000059421.5325.830000594TT0.2777.2716296.117041620636.84702037425920.439184153520551622152225WETL
2025-12-09 11:00:03FORECAST20267715730.66826.9628.81427.8065164650531.37795353.617953522.0825.6979535TT-1.33269.66816299.686062444068.33322542969770.358754297632851622152225WETL
2025-12-09 07:00:05FORECAST20267715730.52429.24629.88527.6909828276081.37795353.617953522.9126.5279535TT-1.47672.52416299.59853710038.29617794602090.351766741380411622152225WETL
2025-12-09 03:00:04FORECAST20267715731.40628.79630.10126.9143303533961.2933077853.39330778522.9726.363307785TT-0.59469.40616299.00949780748.04764040279140.395264696268311622152225WETL
2025-12-08 23:00:03FORECAST20267715735.34831.40633.37726.2264716159411.389764534.3797645323.2527.62976453TT3.34874.34816298.486831462757.82825641308970.597950681619321632152230WETL
2025-12-08 19:00:03FORECAST20267715735.34831.87433.61124.8517925785051.389764534.3797645323.627.97976453TT3.34878.34816297.439547738417.39190594503940.597950681619321632152230WETL
2025-12-08 15:00:02FORECAST20267715735.20431.98233.59323.6631120304851.5413394154.42133941523.6928.111339415TT3.20483.20416296.531012083667.01684655944860.590675131655531632152230WETL
2025-12-08 11:00:03FORECAST20267715737.56233.67435.61824.1338687484460.5137798053.21377980524.6227.833779805TT5.56285.56216296.89115027637.16513205334340.704211878248761642152235WETL
2025-12-08 07:00:07FORECAST20267715737.56233.67435.61823.4194231307890.5137798053.21377980523.8727.083779805TT5.56288.56216296.34441603726.94021527162160.704211878248761642152235WETL
2025-12-08 03:00:05FORECAST20267715734.35830.36232.3625.0269100606390.3602364153.25023641522.425.650236415TT2.35870.35816297.573162350247.44733677059940.54737912537161632152230WETL
2025-12-07 23:00:03FORECAST20267715733.45827.57230.51521.3614645382420.9019689914.28196899120.8625.141968991TT1.45869.45816294.763993211916.29659058814690.500704683210911632152230WETL
2025-12-07 19:00:03FORECAST20267715733.45827.57230.51519.3218557195240.9019689914.28196899120.8725.151968991TT1.45867.45816293.189489955855.66496502340770.500704683210911632152230WETL
2025-12-07 15:00:03FORECAST20267715733.15223.30628.22929.5423356847551.488189784.9081897821.326.20818978TT1.15268.15216300.997987722518.8921835937340.484800996928861622152225WETL
2025-12-07 11:00:05FORECAST20267715737.61630.41634.01625.3266913710910.6421263312.25212633121.0223.272126331TT5.61667.61616297.801757535237.54233320286330.706638299160011642152235WETL
2025-12-07 07:00:06FORECAST20267715737.61630.07433.84525.2107300842170.6559058662.27590586620.6922.965905866TT5.61660.61616297.713353079377.50557098695130.706638299160011642152235WETL
2025-12-07 03:00:07FORECAST20267715735.2428.38231.81125.9138458656270.8157484722.43574847220.6423.075748472TT3.2454.2416298.248982204017.72877815441490.592497054190871632152230WETL
2025-12-06 23:00:04FORECAST20267715729.71426.61828.16622.896940722330.279527711.3095277115.9517.25952771TT-2.28632.71416295.943954349566.7762111798740.313445671281371622142220WETL
2025-12-06 19:00:04FORECAST20267715729.87626.7828.32821.7283489434620.2759844011.29598440116.0317.325984401TT-2.12437.87616295.04634994816.41087004616690.320967062449631622142220WETL
2025-12-06 15:00:04FORECAST20267715731.29827.7729.53421.863791856330.2220473641.20204736416.0617.262047364TT-0.70238.29816295.150521254866.45310956300360.38985520926231622142220WETL
2025-12-06 11:00:03FORECAST20267715733.63831.76632.70227.8314064548600.7318.3119.04TT1.63858.63816299.704915104468.34120930879150.510060890629181632132218WETL
2025-12-06 07:00:07FORECAST20267715733.63831.76632.70230.54010700607300.7318.7319.46TT1.63857.63816301.749485440489.215461574380.510060890629181632132218WETL
2025-12-06 03:00:07FORECAST20267715729.85829.17429.51630.54266811135900.7918.6419.43TT-2.14249.85816301.751411954749.21629322746760.320127643147391622132215WETL