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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 15, 2025

[ Sunday, December 14, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, December 16, 2025 ]

DAY 76 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/16/2025 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.95°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.944
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 127

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.28 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.42 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 21.25 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 23.67 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 11 in
SWE DAY: 17
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 288.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.27 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 156

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-16 07:00:04OBSERVATION20267615644.8899831.0137.9499911.3522539130432.282.4221.2523.67TT12.88998126.8899817288.13778118557 3.27101325395950.9435411306778216 52153260WETH
2025-12-16 03:00:04OBSERVATION20267615644.8899831.0137.9499911.3522539130432.282.4221.2523.67TT12.88998126.8899817288.13778118557 3.27101325395950.9435411306778216 52153260WETH
2025-12-15 11:00:01FORECAST20267615637.88626.43832.16213.3458722641273.4122065673.55220656721.2524.802206567TT5.886119.88617289.702387438553.86633105736760.74043089423761642153252.5WETH
2025-12-15 07:00:04FORECAST20267615638.8425.6132.22513.676397216263.2814978353.42149783521.2524.671497835TT6.84120.8417289.961021040483.96562210098210.780134124438381642153252.5WETH
2025-12-15 03:00:05FORECAST20267615638.6625.73632.19814.4769277359583.3909467133.53094671321.2524.780946713TT6.66120.6617290.586531843744.20680022254440.772920427461011642153252.5WETH
2025-12-14 23:00:01FORECAST20267615638.89425.39432.14413.8667902137013.303151393.5531513921.2524.80315139TT6.894109.89417290.109903777964.0228931746060.782272355984261642153252.5WETH
2025-12-14 19:00:01FORECAST20267615638.73225.95232.34214.1382440517263.1295292493.37952924921.2524.629529249TT6.732109.73217290.322049672464.10464399186650.775821768459461642153252.5WETH
2025-12-14 15:00:01FORECAST20267615638.89426.11432.50414.0931939186522.8759858053.12598580521.2524.375985805TT6.894109.89417290.286852332644.09106890195920.782272355984261642153252.5WETH
2025-12-14 11:00:03FORECAST20267615638.91226.97832.94513.56620001472.9594504173.20945041721.2524.459450417TT6.912109.91217289.874816581813.93249974097330.782982429971751642153252.5WETH
2025-12-14 07:00:05FORECAST20267615638.35426.67232.51314.7586885960113.0811040263.39110402621.2524.641104026TT6.354109.35417290.806388985514.29192093676750.760356788344431642153252.5WETH
2025-12-14 03:00:03FORECAST20267615639.27227.6833.47614.4745447713623.0311039993.32110399921.2524.571103999TT7.272110.27217290.584671752644.2060808411550.796901003406191642153252.5WETH
2025-12-13 23:00:01FORECAST20267615638.78628.1333.45814.0802088165142.8645684763.19456847621.2524.444568476TT6.786100.78617290.276706419454.08715664095580.777983913280371642153252.5WETH
2025-12-13 19:00:02FORECAST20267615639.25427.26633.2613.727476503283.0980331693.31803316921.2524.568033169TT7.254101.25417290.000970879723.98098151367980.796217963066261642153252.5WETH
2025-12-13 15:00:03FORECAST20267615639.88427.82433.85413.4957522977012.9200803173.11008031721.2524.360080317TT7.884103.88417289.819694486053.91133480777920.819304604678651642153252.5WETH
2025-12-13 11:00:02FORECAST20267615639.23628.45433.84512.4096745251062.7122061893.00220618921.2524.252206189TT7.236102.23617288.968639252453.58600676108560.795533558040851642153252.5WETH
2025-12-13 07:00:02FORECAST20267615640.60429.73235.16811.6639383750522.2381901852.64819018521.2523.898190185TT8.604106.60417288.382916237813.36368056341570.843594917293441642153252.5WETH
2025-12-13 03:00:04FORECAST20267615641.01831.136.05911.5548737221792.3326784252.79267842521.2524.042678425TT9.018107.01817288.297160631993.33123728556550.85654240829831652153260WETH
2025-12-12 23:00:02FORECAST20267615641.41431.44236.42812.7143552606251.9850404422.28504044221.1723.455040442TT9.414103.41417289.207625369063.6770884930240.868232746795111652153260WETH
2025-12-12 19:00:02FORECAST20267615640.6429.85835.24912.93035281.9208671792.25086717921.1723.420867179TT8.64101.6417289.37693797463.74174590019530.844750337190081642153252.5WETH
2025-12-12 15:00:02FORECAST20267615640.47829.4834.97912.97335361.9421270332.24212703321.1723.412127033TT8.478101.47817289.410633650173.75462648594370.839506580881541642153252.5WETH
2025-12-12 11:00:02FORECAST20267615639.9230.09235.00612.45901682.0110247082.59102470821.1723.761024708TT7.9299.9217289.007355001643.60074749128910.820572456209691642153252.5WETH
2025-12-12 07:00:04FORECAST20267615640.58630.52435.55512.5195964333331.9027569332.41275693321.1723.582756933TT8.586105.58617289.054881357123.61885046167610.843015094735251642153252.5WETH
2025-12-12 03:00:04FORECAST20267615640.4630.6535.55512.4222788333331.81102462.391024621.1823.5710246TT8.46105.4617288.9785295143.58977187046960.838916898910111642153252.5WETH
2025-12-11 23:00:04FORECAST20267615639.54230.09234.81716.4450442.6555132453.15551324521.7324.885513245TT7.54297.54217292.118963061364.80390920077840.806982046480441642153252.5WETH
2025-12-11 19:00:02FORECAST20267615639.75830.88435.32116.22767842.7035447673.18354476721.7324.913544767TT7.75899.75817291.950092100544.7376722034580.814823143039611642153252.5WETH
2025-12-11 15:00:02FORECAST20267615640.65830.3835.51916.19530482.8192928613.28929286121.7325.019292861TT8.658101.65817291.924933128324.72781327073270.845325934671891642153252.5WETH
2025-12-11 11:00:02FORECAST20267615640.2829.96635.12316.2606781629732.161418492.4114184921.7524.16141849TT8.28100.2817291.97573556294.74772346738550.832942639057411642153252.5WETH
2025-12-11 07:00:03FORECAST20267615640.24430.12835.18615.6116211790122.1515759652.42157596522.2124.631575965TT8.244100.24417291.470971406734.55033439028060.831730899487351642153252.5WETH
2025-12-11 03:00:07FORECAST20267615640.60430.45235.52815.7085511829262.1267728022.43677280222.0124.446772802TT8.604101.60417291.546405624344.5797716349480.843594917293441642153252.5WETH
2025-12-10 23:00:02FORECAST20267615640.8229.9335.37522.3353333744352.1822846432.63228464322.9225.552284643TT8.8297.8217296.65980238386.62599558503640.850442960288481652152240WETL
2025-12-10 19:00:03FORECAST20267615638.87627.75233.31423.136292343972.1822846432.64228464322.4525.092284643TT6.87695.87617297.272033237656.87777266667270.781560945978081642152235WETL
2025-12-10 15:00:02FORECAST20267615638.73227.98633.35923.8720445212332.3598437942.78984379422.2124.999843794TT6.73294.73217297.833325317.10989040170730.775821768459461642152235WETL
2025-12-10 11:00:03FORECAST20267615639.66828.434.03424.4364518472192.1555129753.22551297522.4425.665512975TT7.66896.66817298.263191076647.2884941065420.811580309390391642152235WETL
2025-12-10 07:00:05FORECAST20267615639.61429.49834.55623.0948867583972.1555129753.22551297522.4925.715512975TT7.614100.61417297.240414475426.86473371232890.80961793957641642152235WETL
2025-12-10 03:00:04FORECAST20267615639.50628.63434.0720.6672163882792.1748043243.24480432422.2725.514804324TT7.50698.50617295.380734699456.10469756096250.805655802163171642152235WETL
2025-12-09 23:00:02FORECAST20267615638.98429.94834.46620.8251557277962.6586628533.47866285322.6426.118662853TT6.98491.98417295.502070779986.15387664187910.785809333833621642152235WETL
2025-12-09 19:00:02FORECAST20267615639.21829.334.25921.0277438021892.6586628533.47866285322.2325.708662853TT7.21887.21817295.657636775486.21701303927530.794847789588321642152235WETL
2025-12-09 15:00:02FORECAST20267615638.78629.17433.9820.6047030971922.4874029183.24740291821.8825.127402918TT6.78684.78617295.332695739436.08524251060440.777983913280371642152235WETL
2025-12-09 11:00:03FORECAST20267615636.89629.3933.14324.341332744771.5283472822.55834728222.1624.718347282TT4.89678.89617298.190789322587.25836122432640.69563558291681632152230WETL
2025-12-09 07:00:05FORECAST20267615636.530.09233.29624.3335093552311.5283472822.55834728222.9925.548347282TT4.581.517298.184833618977.25588343845510.67680293953641632152230WETL
2025-12-09 03:00:03FORECAST20267615637.02229.71433.36823.7619186402821.3996070552.42960705523.0425.469607055TT5.02278.02217297.749378998327.07509651895250.701523804291861642152235WETL
2025-12-08 23:00:03FORECAST20267615638.55231.3734.96126.4162852159412.3917335753.29173357523.3526.641733575TT6.55278.55217299.766215342567.91870984259220.768529052081121642152235WETL
2025-12-08 19:00:02FORECAST20267615638.67832.10835.39325.0547917785052.3917335753.29173357523.726.991733575TT6.67882.67817298.733426313897.4847037935740.773647737430861642152235WETL
2025-12-08 15:00:02FORECAST20267615639.97432.66636.3223.8813632304852.2523634213.16236342123.8126.972363421TT7.97487.97417297.840427660567.11283543768470.822463743165821642152235WETL
2025-12-08 11:00:03FORECAST20267615640.85633.67437.26524.6146511484461.8531506073.31315060724.4127.723150607TT8.85687.85617298.398783865627.3449819679730.851564599010161652152240WETL
2025-12-08 07:00:07FORECAST20267615641.16233.96237.56223.9002055307891.8531506073.31315060723.6626.973150607TT9.16291.16217297.854788000847.11879065154960.860871723016871652152240WETL
2025-12-08 03:00:05FORECAST20267615636.21230.5633.38625.1102548606391.9980325753.52803257522.1625.688032575TT4.21276.21217298.775568804027.50233067880110.662812545251291632152230WETL
2025-12-07 23:00:03FORECAST20267615636.73432.03634.38519.6612497816422.2000011883.65000118820.9924.640001188TT4.73475.73417294.606762643155.79233714768810.687990089284471632152230WETL
2025-12-07 19:00:02FORECAST20267615636.73432.25234.49317.6216409629242.2000011883.6500011882124.650001188TT4.73473.73417293.031442723825.16369487452670.687990089284471632152230WETL
2025-12-07 15:00:03FORECAST20267615635.13231.42433.27818.6593905289272.2397649893.68976498921.4325.119764989TT3.13275.13217293.833982679115.48276303347950.608459762831291632152230WETL
2025-12-07 11:00:05FORECAST20267615634.93431.58633.2625.6042777710911.3322841841.96228418421.0723.032284184TT2.93469.93417299.15068018467.65953711085750.598223822770241632152230WETL
2025-12-07 07:00:06FORECAST20267615635.09631.35233.22425.4691284842171.3185046491.96850464920.7422.708504649TT3.09663.09617299.048108156077.61649468958910.606604031801841632152230WETL
2025-12-07 03:00:07FORECAST20267615633.96230.6532.30625.4147668095371.3240164631.94401646320.7222.664016463TT1.96258.96217299.006840240157.59918911915990.547122301989511632152230WETL
2025-12-06 23:00:04FORECAST20267615630.88427.1429.01221.6377357388590.6358271151.52582711515.8517.375827115TT-1.11642.88417296.125562312156.40748666283130.384223514864921622152225WETL
2025-12-06 19:00:03FORECAST20267615631.06427.37429.21920.5101064759260.6314964041.51149640415.9417.451496404TT-0.93648.06417295.259987519276.05581378210080.393477684510271622152225WETL
2025-12-06 15:00:04FORECAST20267615631.5528.1329.8420.2709020639690.5870081911.46700819115.9717.437008191TT-0.4546.5517295.07605386925.98145778940510.418752041444551622142220WETL
2025-12-06 11:00:03FORECAST20267615634.3431.78433.06227.861812054860.1704725331.15047253318.2919.440472533TT2.3465.3417300.858847623668.38247266753230.567136654013321632142224WETL
2025-12-06 07:00:06FORECAST20267615634.3431.78433.06230.5705126060730.1704725331.15047253318.7119.860472533TT2.3464.3417302.895506037879.25967088565370.567136654013321632142224WETL
2025-12-06 03:00:07FORECAST20267615634.82629.10231.96430.5426681113590.1704725331.25047253318.5819.830472533TT2.82659.82617302.874641102329.25059964253490.592611563794051632142224WETL
2025-12-05 23:00:04FORECAST20267615635.58233.29634.43918.2182690688990.2137796431.63377964321.4123.043779643TT3.58258.58217293.493101429255.34693629170370.631435740031031632152230WETL
2025-12-05 19:00:03FORECAST20267615635.58233.29634.43920.7583528289170.2137796431.63377964321.1822.813779643TT3.58256.58217295.45075573856.13307103119010.631435740031031632152230WETL
2025-12-05 15:00:02FORECAST20267615633.42232.84633.13420.2567602240670.2145670451.15456704521.422.554567045TT1.42254.42217295.065176154915.97706452384230.518334096862581632142224WETL
2025-12-05 11:00:04FORECAST20267615625.86222.49624.17924.58759433710200.620.8221.42TT-6.13844.86217298.378200146667.33640214424080.166506680899791612132212WETL
2025-12-05 07:00:05FORECAST20267615625.86222.49624.17948.0565954741600.620.6221.22TT-6.13842.86217315.711315967715.1720109980740.16650668089979161213126WETL
2025-12-05 03:00:06FORECAST20267615634.17833.94434.06144.8331364893550.0244094621.44440946217.5318.974409462TT2.17861.17817313.3913875528414.0503188527450.558577077334681632141212WETL