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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 12, 2025

[ Thursday, December 11, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, December 13, 2025 ]

DAY 73 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/06/2025 11:00:02 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.18°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.795
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 65

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.46 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 5.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.77 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 21.02 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 29 in
SWE DAY: 20
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 304.98 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.81 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 153

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-06 11:00:02FORECAST20267315340.3734.17837.27428.872773654860.4625986755.25259867515.7721.022598675TT8.3765.3720304.979029631498.80559049202890.795379657686721642152235WETL
2025-12-06 07:00:06FORECAST20267315339.41633.06236.23931.5965294060730.4625986755.25259867516.1921.442598675TT7.41665.41620306.998562420849.70008910515250.764497009471431642152235WETL
2025-12-06 03:00:06FORECAST20267315339.2933.42236.35631.3402985113590.5555121115.39551211115.9121.305512111TT7.2963.2920306.809174441699.6154911130260.760234560193341642152235WETL
2025-12-05 23:00:03FORECAST20267315336.80635.04235.92419.0162930688990.4996065698.29960656915.8424.139606569TT4.80659.80620297.553049641715.65835599553150.668330982354621632152230WETL
2025-12-05 19:00:03FORECAST20267315336.44630.41633.43121.5416168289170.4996065698.29960656915.6123.909606569TT4.44658.44620299.473406320726.45114136941160.653921070693511632152230WETL
2025-12-05 15:00:02FORECAST20267315336.48228.2232.35121.0828282240670.2885828337.92858283316.224.128582833TT4.48257.48220299.12544022346.30641027367850.655372556840111632152230WETL
2025-12-05 11:00:03FORECAST20267315336.89628.61632.75624.6383726491482.6177179497.44771794916.123.547717949TT4.89650.89620301.811550524157.43614545163110.671895919538231632152230WETL
2025-12-05 07:00:04FORECAST20267315336.37430.86633.6248.1073737862062.6177179497.44771794915.923.347717949TT4.37449.37420318.9459807744615.3436535147250.651011326584521632151215WETL
2025-12-05 03:00:06FORECAST20267315339.4732.50435.98746.5677316893550.1610237095.04102370915.2220.261023709TT7.4754.4720317.8529419472314.8016905172710.766310914538131642151217.5WETL
2025-12-04 23:00:04FORECAST20267315335.2427.71631.47856.2226253130691.5645677746.03456777415.3121.344567774TT3.2443.2420324.6371305342518.2519517527370.604111914417941632151215WETL
2025-12-04 19:00:03FORECAST20267315334.3426.00630.17358.6416918151211.5645677746.03456777415.221.234567774TT2.3445.3420326.3110269756419.1354306797810.565746588338431632151215WETL
2025-12-04 15:00:04FORECAST20267315335.02421.50628.26560.8108211182431.6503945926.34039459214.7821.120394592TT3.02450.02420327.8032558807719.9339851553430.594980981703111632151215WETL
2025-12-04 11:00:03FORECAST20267315324.31419.23821.77667.4847182956690.7874026.97740214.8321.807402TT-7.68638.31420332.3432653876922.4280916421510.175853142819621612151210WETL
2025-12-04 07:00:05FORECAST20267315324.31419.23821.77656.087299671020.7874026.97740215.522.477402TT-7.68650.31420324.5431865275418.2027509589580.175853142819621612151210WETL
2025-12-04 03:00:09FORECAST20267315324.63819.07621.85777.2791344936491.1354336846.07543368416.0122.085433684TT-7.36247.63820338.8682372192926.1874440796960.185173468608051612151210WETL
2025-12-03 23:00:04FORECAST20267315335.70829.15632.43256.9145503041760.1283465264.83834652618.6423.478346526TT3.70865.70820325.1169653760518.5038858806360.623694641120151632151215WETL
2025-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20267315335.70829.15632.43259.0502358538640.1283465264.83834652618.723.538346526TT3.70863.70820326.5927091813219.285376505310.623694641120151632151215WETL
2025-12-03 15:00:03FORECAST20267315336.93230.90233.91760.3972102079450.1716536365.19165363618.6823.871653636TT4.93264.93220327.5193507766319.7812550760260.673317547838181632151215WETL
2025-12-03 11:00:03FORECAST20267315342.15238.67840.41549.3368329441570.4669293863.23692938616.5119.746929386TT10.15273.15220319.8157469402215.7786960797010.846200258378421642151217.5WETL
2025-12-03 07:00:08FORECAST20267315342.15238.67840.41528.9882518314170.4669293863.23692938616.7820.016929386TT10.15271.15220305.064935020248.84329916130140.846200258378421642152235WETM
2025-12-03 03:00:05FORECAST20267315337.25611.60624.43125.5991833547940.4200789673.58007896716.6420.220078967TT5.25659.25620302.533261291387.74460442672180.685997166285651632152230WETL
2025-12-02 23:00:03FORECAST20267315325.0721.45223.26148.6931907701660.0992126523.99921265213.8917.889212652TT-6.9331.0720319.3607487613115.5506938639380.19806692395581612151210WETL
2025-12-02 19:00:03FORECAST20267315326.02423.21624.6237.8293850361080.0996063534.12960635313.1417.269606353TT-5.97638.02420311.5676915362211.7864141679350.228391284209081612151210WETL
2025-12-02 15:00:03FORECAST20267315326.81620.62423.7245.2855082906540.8523626655.49236266513.4418.932362665TT-5.18438.81620316.9393845541614.3527611268620.255429104639371622151212.5WETL
2025-12-02 11:00:08FORECAST20267315334.2531.83833.04415.20384268996704.6412.0416.68TT2.2562.2520294.630474997314.47951539352950.561869391627831632153245WETH
2025-12-02 07:00:06FORECAST20267315334.2531.83833.04430.41428081342904.641216.64TT2.2567.2520306.123698257929.31053212246180.561869391627831632152230WETL
2025-12-02 03:00:05FORECAST20267315335.79835.49235.64539.0336032826450.2673229794.21732297911.6615.877322979TT3.79850.79820312.4421622161112.1957434087160.627426045205921632151215WETL