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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 11, 2025

[ Wednesday, December 10, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, December 12, 2025 ]

DAY 72 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/12/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.02°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.15°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.789
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 77

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 9.20 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 23.91 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 15 in
SWE DAY: 21
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 295.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.51 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 152

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 52.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-12 07:00:03OBSERVATION20267215241.0199837.2799439.1499615.2394708333332.069.214.7123.91TT9.0199877.0199821295.80805155137 4.50795817388220.789057998442816 42153252.5WETH
2025-12-12 03:00:03OBSERVATION20267215241.0199837.2799439.1499615.2394708333332.069.214.7123.91TT9.0199877.0199821295.80805155137 4.50795817388220.789057998442816 42153252.5WETH
2025-12-11 11:00:01FORECAST20267215238.46235.00636.73418.6074139247942.6137809399.75378093914.7124.463780939TT6.46274.46221298.381297711045.55210431392650.699994839774731642152235WETL
2025-12-11 07:00:03FORECAST20267215238.42635.58237.00418.12789523.07716701610.21716701614.7124.927167016TT6.42674.42621298.016268398925.40240768143080.698629474626311632152230WETL
2025-12-11 03:00:07FORECAST20267215237.95835.65436.80618.12671442.86063146610.00063146614.7124.710631466TT5.95873.95821298.015368976695.40203948025110.680631735471081632152230WETL
2025-12-10 23:00:01FORECAST20267215237.88634.9736.42824.36069522.7244109210.9144109214.7125.62441092TT5.88669.88621302.726438853017.37462650587970.677823260602641632152230WETL
2025-12-10 19:00:02FORECAST20267215238.35433.9836.16724.43606962.28070989310.47070989314.7125.180709893TT6.35470.35421302.782944710167.39882511063040.695890396038571632152230WETL
2025-12-10 15:00:01FORECAST20267215238.3933.33235.86124.8046005047452.03307196410.22307196414.7124.933071964TT6.3970.3921303.059065234837.51725904249130.697261321596051632152230WETL
2025-12-10 11:00:02FORECAST20267215238.08433.90835.99623.66156322.24842641110.43842641114.7125.148426411TT6.08470.08421302.201805353377.15056711652280.685521660689451632152230WETL
2025-12-10 07:00:05FORECAST20267215238.53434.1636.34723.135845052.30196974710.52196974714.7125.231969747TT6.53471.53421301.806688681746.98255278439430.702717145594321642152235WETL
2025-12-10 03:00:03FORECAST20267215238.46233.3535.90623.184749852.36771781410.30771781414.7125.017717814TT6.46271.46221301.843466573246.99816526635750.699994839774731642152235WETL
2025-12-09 23:00:02FORECAST20267215237.72432.39635.0621.774922.36496190710.60496190714.7125.314961907TT5.72466.72421300.78139717126.54949086089110.671467172909861632152230WETL
2025-12-09 19:00:01FORECAST20267215238.0334.21436.12221.6465082.3700800210.2200800214.7124.93008002TT6.0367.0321300.684471236246.5087688120910.683429893239461632152230WETL
2025-12-09 15:00:02FORECAST20267215238.24633.94436.09521.66638482.4141745329.87417453214.7124.584174532TT6.24666.24621300.699476399256.51507056482470.691761139498041632152230WETL
2025-12-09 11:00:02FORECAST20267215237.65233.38635.51923.9568588691012.0468514999.86685149914.7124.576851499TT5.65265.65221302.423510924187.24511736990870.668626109606681632152230WETL
2025-12-09 07:00:05FORECAST20267215238.13832.9935.56424.1780567064631.91653646810.65653646814.7125.366536468TT6.13867.13821302.589475548187.31602549858290.687607494136391632152230WETL
2025-12-09 03:00:03FORECAST20267215238.15631.96435.0623.7988163165921.89330810910.69330810914.7125.403308109TT6.15667.15621302.30487455317.19449818109960.688301443757851632152230WETL
2025-12-08 23:00:02FORECAST20267215238.44434.53836.49127.6659305844732.2952768311.2652768314.7125.97527683TT6.44465.44421305.194135804848.44347977596470.699312506640841642152235WETL
2025-12-08 19:00:02FORECAST20267215238.26433.74636.00526.7171613785052.22677285611.65677285614.7126.366772856TT6.26466.26421304.487900989948.13505238855050.692451054155561632152230WETL
2025-12-08 15:00:01FORECAST20267215238.35434.57436.46426.0585616304852.21771773311.75771773314.7126.467717733TT6.35467.35421303.996657736437.92171564108620.695890396038571632152230WETL
2025-12-08 11:00:02FORECAST20267215238.67834.23236.45526.9765463484462.21732403212.42732403214.7127.137324032TT6.67866.67821304.681148312378.21924511894660.708127640118681642152235WETL
2025-12-08 07:00:06FORECAST20267215239.16435.65437.40926.5485431307892.20590670311.89590670314.4926.385906703TT7.16467.16421304.362208505088.08037321987910.726041195354231642152235WETL
2025-12-08 03:00:05FORECAST20267215238.44433.6236.03226.6621212606392.06535544610.83535544614.0724.905355446TT6.44465.44421304.446878553768.11719959342320.699312506640841642152235WETL
2025-12-07 23:00:02FORECAST20267215237.79635.43836.61721.4087353816421.3996070559.39960705514.3523.749607055TT5.79660.79621300.504915946366.43343022637830.674298364593091632152230WETL
2025-12-07 19:00:02FORECAST20267215237.83235.76236.79719.2690537629241.4070873749.47708737414.2823.757087374TT5.83259.83221298.884235687115.75921640634530.675710215065221632152230WETL
2025-12-07 15:00:02FORECAST20267215238.64236.35637.49918.5735715428041.7082686399.78826863914.3724.158268639TT6.64262.64221298.355550081535.5415281546320.706779318110671642152235WETL
2025-12-07 11:00:04FORECAST20267215236.37434.03435.20426.9376961710911.3578747499.46787474914.3623.827874749TT4.37460.37421304.652212209548.20662873035140.616716140766911632152230WETL
2025-12-07 07:00:06FORECAST20267215235.0632.66633.86326.2835852842171.2940951879.38409518714.1223.504095187TT3.0658.0621304.164593157227.99453602468710.561073603063611632152230WETL
2025-12-07 03:00:06FORECAST20267215233.90830.36232.13526.2354228095371.7255914839.38559148314.0923.475591483TT1.90854.90821304.128657518017.9789439184820.511236001998271632152230WETL
2025-12-06 23:00:03FORECAST20267215231.40623.6327.51820.4079620378680.1358268454.28582684514.3218.605826845TT-0.59447.40621299.747986625656.11724553198380.403439857899361622152225WETL
2025-12-06 19:00:03FORECAST20267215232.61225.3428.97618.8721760434350.1303150314.44031503114.2618.700315031TT0.61250.61221298.582655061195.63490442983110.454997137049911622152225WETL
2025-12-06 15:00:03FORECAST20267215232.4524.42228.43618.6069267021780.1669292244.47692922414.1718.646929224TT0.4549.4521298.38092704285.55195203881340.44800730017671622152225WETL
2025-12-06 11:00:02FORECAST20267215234.68228.25631.46929.4662616751292.279528796.7795287913.8120.58952879TT2.68251.68221306.529577464599.03228074073850.544788230021561632152230WETL
2025-12-06 07:00:06FORECAST20267215233.51228.70631.10932.1454452452612.279528796.8495287914.1621.00952879TT1.51252.51221308.50565861399.91705175682640.49402386611551622152225WETL
2025-12-06 03:00:06FORECAST20267215233.72829.51631.62231.8143938479782.3129933756.89299337513.8920.782993375TT1.72850.72821308.262213096419.80717545589860.503412971116031632152230WETL
2025-12-05 23:00:03FORECAST20267215235.5132.41433.96219.5584770688991.9874026489.50740264814.1623.667402648TT3.5149.5121299.103971922155.85001817605610.580324782735391632152230WETL
2025-12-05 19:00:02FORECAST20267215233.99830.81232.40521.7212952289171.9874026489.66740264813.7723.437402648TT1.99848.99821300.740924805626.53248241512050.51514608505271632152230WETL
2025-12-05 15:00:02FORECAST20267215232.66629.53431.121.2312154240671.2287408219.60874082114.2623.868740821TT0.66647.66621300.370790060646.37723695087460.457330291390691622152225WETL
2025-12-05 11:00:03FORECAST20267215230.88427.37429.12924.4064920684551.0988194917.40881949113.5520.958819491TT-1.11640.88421302.760772638927.3893283960510.381580855154251622152225WETL
2025-12-05 07:00:04FORECAST20267215230.45226.7828.61648.4630897862061.0988194917.40881949113.3520.758819491TT-1.54840.45221320.2549653736315.5205451413810.363768648907761622151212.5WETL
2025-12-05 03:00:05FORECAST20267215232.1827.87830.02947.1966060893551.0779533386.96795333813.1620.127953338TT0.1842.1821319.360379671715.0727260399120.436394415133211622151212.5WETL
2025-12-04 23:00:03FORECAST20267215231.67622.87427.27555.7457229385161.1059061096.47590610913.3319.805906109TT-0.32434.67621325.3436025661718.1365143284730.414870518061041622151212.5WETL
2025-12-04 19:00:03FORECAST20267215233.83620.76827.30255.7325728060991.106299816.4762998113.2219.69629981TT1.83637.83621325.3344986662318.1317286332510.508107139750551632151215WETL
2025-12-04 15:00:03FORECAST20267215234.89823.55829.22854.2407306199041.3311030816.51110308112.9919.501103081TT2.89841.89821324.2997125857317.5902533504750.554105167143431632151215WETL
2025-12-04 11:00:03FORECAST20267215228.05822.98225.5260.9586388097612.4275603668.34756036612.721.047560366TT-3.94241.05821328.928681985320.0510447193130.271172376679361622151212.5WETL
2025-12-04 07:00:04FORECAST20267215234.23224.65629.44449.5612201851112.4275603668.34756036613.3721.717560366TT2.23253.23221321.0283080983615.9105546633170.525304551498731632151215WETL
2025-12-04 03:00:08FORECAST20267215233.27824.87229.07567.464999081941.7625993776.72259937714.2620.982599377TT1.27850.27821333.337215313722.4885949251150.483856233427371622151212.5WETL
2025-12-03 23:00:03FORECAST20267215235.65431.0133.33257.1189271041761.4283472287.86834722815.5123.378347228TT3.65456.65421326.2926065443218.6374836078360.586447067740721632151215WETL
2025-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20267215235.16831.11833.14359.2546126538641.4283472287.86834722815.5723.438347228TT3.16855.16821327.7619901843619.4214097710340.565708870227341632151215WETL
2025-12-03 15:00:03FORECAST20267215236.46432.07234.26859.9211572763771.5767725058.56677250515.1623.726772505TT4.46455.46421328.2189532066419.6672595161830.620454253507851632151215WETL
2025-12-03 11:00:03FORECAST20267215238.22831.78435.00650.4257273441570.4771656125.98716561213.3219.307165612TT6.22858.22821321.6356092855916.2187095380070.691070547352331632151215WETL
2025-12-03 07:00:08FORECAST20267215238.22831.78435.00630.0771462314170.4771656125.98716561213.5919.577165612TT6.22856.22821306.981330868979.23312237886080.691070547352331632152230WETL
2025-12-03 03:00:05FORECAST20267215234.77230.70432.73824.6187370801780.728346856.6383468513.1919.82834685TT2.77248.77221302.919840003357.45750389741230.548673581452051632152230WETL
2025-12-02 23:00:03FORECAST20267215226.00622.15424.0847.5640516269791.5850402266.46504022611.3517.815040226TT-5.99433.00621319.6202226725615.2024327722240.202446858318251612151210WETL
2025-12-02 19:00:03FORECAST20267215229.7526.27628.01336.7156794723581.6307095426.58070954210.6217.200709542TT-2.2538.7521311.8456390089811.4496245267060.335456299583421622151212.5WETL
2025-12-02 15:00:03FORECAST20267215230.0227.12228.57135.7352110950041.9000010267.54000102610.5718.110001026TT-1.9839.0221311.1323643836511.1183807197370.346245998534921622151212.5WETL
2025-12-02 11:00:07FORECAST20267215237.32826.43831.88315.2375938899670.5200790216.9300790219.7816.710079021TT5.32855.32821295.806611343864.50738101362510.655722976169411632153245WETL
2025-12-02 07:00:06FORECAST20267215237.32826.43831.88330.4480320134290.5200790216.9300790219.7416.670079021TT5.32860.32821307.255261719639.35531804513350.655722976169411632152230WETL
2025-12-02 03:00:05FORECAST20267215237.68821.90229.79539.0734552826450.405512036.185512039.4515.63551203TT5.68841.68821313.5536277589712.2516236529510.670047866454861632151215WETL
2025-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20267215234.64630.75832.70229.7866717027450.4267718843.2567718849.9613.216771884TT2.64638.64621306.766610330969.13755631129210.543232867927581632152230WETL
2025-12-01 19:00:04FORECAST20267215234.64630.75832.70230.8521130076360.4267718843.25677188410.0113.266771884TT2.64636.64621307.553416483149.48867276122250.543232867927581632152230WETL
2025-12-01 15:00:04FORECAST20267215232.01829.24630.63231.218346800590.3877954853.20779548510.3713.577795485TT0.01800000000000140.01821307.823381114169.60973706495220.429452251774591622152225WETL
2025-12-01 11:00:03FORECAST20267215226.76223.66625.21431.7030139779440.1248032174.82480321710.2715.094803217TT-5.23836.76221308.18026156439.77024314009940.226473350806331612152220WETL
2025-12-01 07:00:05FORECAST20267215226.76223.66625.21416.5677196660930.1248032174.82480321710.2515.074803217TT-5.23837.76221296.825517573154.9177219648950.226473350806331612153230WETL
2025-12-01 03:00:04FORECAST20267215232.70231.58632.14414.29463238006504.6710.7215.39TT0.70244.70221295.082193563344.21809147889110.458886550061141622153237.5WETH