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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 10, 2025

[ Tuesday, December 9, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, December 11, 2025 ]

DAY 71 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/11/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.77°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.08°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.42°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.817
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 71

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 4.38 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 12.38 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.99 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 22.37 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 19 in
SWE DAY: 22
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 299.68 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 5.64 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 151

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-11 07:00:03OBSERVATION20267115142.7699440.0800241.4249818.818864.3812.389.9922.37TT10.7699470.7699422299.67751926141 5.63958928012770.8169792002838716 42152235WETM
2025-12-11 03:00:05OBSERVATION20267115142.7699440.0800241.4249818.818864.3812.389.9922.37TT10.7699470.7699422299.67751926141 5.63958928012770.8169792002838716 42152235WETM
2025-12-10 11:00:02FORECAST20267115139.39836.91438.15624.19961445.42756198613.4275619869.9923.417561986TT7.39867.39822303.725634509157.35004323851680.712922740277771642152235WETL
2025-12-10 07:00:04FORECAST20267115139.68637.07638.38123.713748255.46299507613.4629950769.9923.452995076TT7.68667.68622303.362369812147.19385886624850.722788866431751642152235WETL
2025-12-10 03:00:03FORECAST20267115139.59637.2238.40823.718176255.18386106713.1838610679.9923.173861067TT7.59667.59622303.365682493587.19528072558430.719723563177511642152235WETL
2025-12-09 23:00:01FORECAST20267115138.69636.33837.51722.22057365.03661689313.4766168939.9923.466616893TT6.69663.69622302.243166621036.71601652899960.688203030613741632152230WETL
2025-12-09 19:00:01FORECAST20267115138.58836.51837.55322.20109044.64921510913.0892151099.9923.079215109TT6.58863.58822302.22853499236.70980302682370.684319673419741632152230WETL
2025-12-09 15:00:02FORECAST20267115138.46237.36437.91322.21958964.26063222212.7006322229.9922.690632222TT6.46263.46222302.242427667246.71570270247380.67976328043881632152230WETL
2025-12-09 11:00:02FORECAST20267115138.44437.2237.83224.3663012691014.61850643113.0585064319.9923.048506431TT6.44463.44422303.850157056877.40370446751130.679110129390551632152230WETL
2025-12-09 07:00:04FORECAST20267115138.60637.43638.02124.5594551064635.33268004513.9826800459.9923.972680045TT6.60663.60622303.994385686997.46593646789650.684968328795741632152230WETL
2025-12-09 03:00:02FORECAST20267115138.82237.56238.19222.8705304340135.62244398114.0424439819.9924.032443981TT6.82263.82222302.730860960946.92361536892220.692707305640511632152230WETL
2025-12-08 23:00:02FORECAST20267115138.71437.77838.24627.1473964340955.3740186514.214018659.9924.20401865TT6.71461.71422305.920000496748.30493153060370.688848244472811632152230WETL
2025-12-08 19:00:02FORECAST20267115139.8337.52638.67826.5333743039445.38228637114.6722863719.9924.662286371TT7.8362.8322305.464268465198.10499777166730.727659020423431642152235WETL
2025-12-08 15:00:01FORECAST20267115140.02837.79638.91226.0318844926015.2913414414.781341449.9924.77134144TT8.02864.02822305.091531130967.94210749807190.73428541213571642152235WETL
2025-12-08 11:00:02FORECAST20267115139.07437.90438.48926.2716836200445.8149637715.454963779.9925.44496377TT7.07463.07422305.269823474398.01995222106590.701628744040191642152235WETL
2025-12-08 07:00:06FORECAST20267115139.5638.08438.82227.2324231307895.46023916914.7102391699.9924.700239169TT7.5662.5622305.983051968898.33265994206690.718492866804121642152235WETL
2025-12-08 03:00:04FORECAST20267115138.73234.08836.4127.1619932606395.01653814213.3665381429.9923.356538142TT6.73261.73222305.930825728848.30969102666830.68949287902441632152230WETL
2025-12-07 23:00:02FORECAST20267115138.17433.24235.70822.0555185816424.53740402512.53740402510.3322.867404025TT6.17458.17422302.119189538876.66339539874530.669247303392531632152230WETL
2025-12-07 19:00:02FORECAST20267115137.90432.88235.39319.9219377629244.69567182712.53567182710.3322.865671827TT5.90456.90422300.511914774325.9867796631510.659265638088511632152230WETL
2025-12-07 15:00:02FORECAST20267115138.40834.46636.43719.2908091428044.71141986712.64141986710.3322.971419867TT6.40859.40822300.034799517765.78791405369670.677802165897671632152230WETL
2025-12-07 11:00:03FORECAST20267115138.64234.95236.79724.9158310505935.31142019112.66142019110.3322.991420191TT6.64258.64222304.260307176047.58089840899970.686263929476421632152230WETL
2025-12-07 07:00:06FORECAST20267115137.6734.55636.11324.1509886920265.17244373812.56244373810.1722.732443738TT5.6757.6722303.689298995867.33439682593830.650523459687321632152230WETL
2025-12-07 03:00:06FORECAST20267115137.18431.8234.50222.9179569878995.2401603112.1701603110.122.27016031TT5.18456.18422302.766415911266.93878769723470.632114187705551632152230WETL
2025-12-06 23:00:03FORECAST20267115136.5926.11431.35219.8977536895212.3342532298.69425322910.318.994253229TT4.5950.5922300.493646392825.97914856119050.609199116391251632152230WETL
2025-12-06 19:00:02FORECAST20267115137.47227.08632.27918.4286396092042.3657493098.83574930910.2519.085749309TT5.47253.47222299.381786594295.51719905070580.643063159545381632152230WETL
2025-12-06 15:00:03FORECAST20267115136.64424.94430.79418.0074810807482.3566941868.81669418610.1818.996694186TT4.64451.64422299.062278060465.38535831413920.61129939810591632152230WETL
2025-12-06 11:00:02FORECAST20267115137.02227.91432.46823.1767918559142.5090564738.59905647310.2318.829056473TT5.02252.02222302.960384932927.02164978217780.62590723292251632152230WETL
2025-12-06 07:00:05FORECAST20267115137.6726.97832.32425.8677268278422.5090564738.53905647310.7119.249056473TT5.6753.6722304.96941611787.88886554698180.650523459687321632152230WETL
2025-12-06 03:00:06FORECAST20267115137.54428.56233.05325.4567762039652.5330722348.46307223410.5318.993072234TT5.54451.54422304.663491265427.75575031466250.645782506585041632152230WETL
2025-12-05 23:00:03FORECAST20267115137.59834.01635.80719.8407866688995.80827085311.53827085310.6622.198270853TT5.59848.59822300.450609700425.96117645160670.64781716099381632152230WETL
2025-12-05 19:00:02FORECAST20267115137.8534.4336.1421.7532752289175.80827085311.61827085310.3521.968270853TT5.8549.8522301.89203198496.56714046118460.657255578787491632152230WETL
2025-12-05 15:00:02FORECAST20267115138.08433.02635.55521.2491242240676.41417669212.71417669210.4523.164176692TT6.08450.08422301.512738090676.40688162682740.665932988711071632152230WETL
2025-12-05 11:00:03FORECAST20267115135.97829.73232.85522.7091352320053.73031697510.09031697510.2920.380316975TT3.97844.97822302.609833393026.87200762905640.585187191855561632152230WETL
2025-12-05 07:00:04FORECAST20267115135.07828.81431.94644.8189902218223.73031697510.04031697510.1420.180316975TT3.07845.07822318.7359904796614.2854252406510.549315144688491632151215WETL
2025-12-05 03:00:05FORECAST20267115135.56429.51632.5443.3903709210493.7976398469.6876398469.8819.567639846TT3.56444.56422317.7211498267413.7860385404440.568755443119941632151215WETL
2025-12-04 23:00:03FORECAST20267115131.44226.02428.73351.0850590399373.3626002419.05260024110.1719.222600241TT-0.55838.44222323.1439420342116.5078273572160.403336376932321622151212.5WETL
2025-12-04 19:00:03FORECAST20267115132.59423.95428.27450.8359558442343.3578758299.04787582910.0619.107875829TT0.59438.59422322.9700427903916.4184908343030.449106170129691622151212.5WETL
2025-12-04 15:00:03FORECAST20267115133.60223.59428.59849.2198188508223.3598443348.55984433410.1318.689844334TT1.60241.60222321.8391390402215.8408641226640.489740555523711622151212.5WETL
2025-12-04 11:00:03FORECAST20267115134.12428.29231.20845.44397749543.7574823449.04748234410.0919.137482344TT2.12448.12422319.1788027526914.5047543293020.510852203533651632151215WETL
2025-12-04 07:00:04FORECAST20267115135.25829.51632.38745.0278753297483.7574823449.04748234410.7619.807482344TT3.25854.25822318.8840667327314.3586720014840.556531614263221632151215WETL
2025-12-04 03:00:08FORECAST20267115134.8829.123263.2583321208343.1826788848.11267888411.6319.742678884TT2.8851.8822331.5094331209220.9707338215530.541358248051721632151215WETL
2025-12-03 23:00:03FORECAST20267115135.76230.5633.16157.3655175041763.27874192810.70874192811.7622.468741928TT3.76255.76222327.4921762998618.786758172010.576630788293671632151215WETL
2025-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20267115134.98830.21832.60359.4392110538643.27874192810.70874192811.8222.528741928TT2.98854.98822328.9127190053219.5503125232570.545700634615351632151215WETL
2025-12-03 15:00:03FORECAST20267115136.01429.76832.89160.2548316763773.4409467411.1609467411.5122.67094674TT4.01454.01422329.46939677519.8521230451950.586609454301881632151215WETL
2025-12-03 11:00:03FORECAST20267115136.89629.7533.32350.7166961441572.2854343058.91543430510.4319.345434305TT4.89654.89622322.8867484921216.375749112250.621056845773381632151215WETL
2025-12-03 07:00:07FORECAST20267115135.45629.85832.65730.3681150314172.2854343058.91543430510.719.615434305TT3.45653.45622308.298836002079.36245451576270.564448042883911632152230WETL
2025-12-03 03:00:04FORECAST20267115134.1630.34432.25224.7521674801782.4318910778.92189107710.719.621891077TT2.1649.1622304.138214174257.52808001436350.512307735303841632152230WETL
2025-12-02 23:00:03FORECAST20267115130.93824.24227.5933.2336010082042.311024876.801024879.9516.75102487TT-1.06241.93822310.3989979989710.3156764528440.383683343395561622151212.5WETL
2025-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20267115134.19628.05831.12723.8440355117922.3960642866.9160642869.1716.086064286TT2.19644.19622303.459824919247.23570684177670.513763103155881632152230WETL
2025-12-02 15:00:03FORECAST20267115136.01428.41832.21620.9354105846712.7385841567.5285841569.216.728584156TT4.01444.01422301.27647292576.30734666020090.586609454301881632152230WETL
2025-12-02 11:00:07FORECAST20267115140.87433.72837.30112.7243583514364.1212620687.4912620689.2216.711262068TT8.87452.87422295.025108228183.75400519976660.761648751053581642153252.5WETH
2025-12-02 07:00:06FORECAST20267115140.87433.72837.30127.9347964748984.1212620687.4912620689.1816.671262068TT8.87457.87422306.503375789478.5621094215480.761648751053581642152235WETL
2025-12-02 03:00:05FORECAST20267115135.7827.30231.54135.959515567473.5409467946.8909467948.8615.750946794TT3.7838.7822312.3827286188411.2331315927780.577345262505591632151215WETL
2025-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20267115134.08830.03832.06329.8132397027450.929134363.859134369.4513.30913436TT2.08839.08822307.890389186339.17920997498350.509396527220211632152230WETL
2025-12-01 19:00:03FORECAST20267115134.08830.03832.06330.8786810076360.929134363.859134369.513.35913436TT2.08837.08822308.674158256049.53145086808870.509396527220211632152230WETL
2025-12-01 15:00:04FORECAST20267115134.8831.1933.03530.4789272299861.0169296834.2569296839.4513.706929683TT2.8842.8822308.380336539749.39910183655330.541358248051721632152230WETL
2025-12-01 11:00:03FORECAST20267115134.46627.01430.7430.4727848555872.59842666.47842669.0115.4884266TT2.46645.46622308.375819525559.39707000306740.52467118352011632152230WETL
2025-12-01 07:00:05FORECAST20267115135.0627.01431.03715.3374905437362.59842666.47842668.9915.4684266TT3.0646.0622297.028739874424.55567548904180.548592559995461632153245WETL
2025-12-01 03:00:04FORECAST20267115137.56232.75635.15914.2984699800652.2578752356.5478752359.3615.907875235TT5.56246.56222296.233658158184.23568806825960.64646119042221632153245WETH
2025-11-30 23:00:04FORECAST20267115132.39622.22627.31116.1547329700460.1519685863.0119685868.9411.951968586TT0.39629.39622297.652639393334.80849890722880.441173346056341622153237.5WETL
2025-11-30 19:00:03FORECAST20267115132.48623.14427.81518.813096975470.149606383.019606388.9912.00960638TT0.48628.48622299.673153824245.63778010384040.444776445955841622152225WETL
2025-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20267115130.93816.37623.65720.6807812285280.0893701272.4893701279.0611.549370127TT-1.06226.93822301.084567067416.22666406280730.383683343395561622152225WETL
2025-11-30 11:00:04FORECAST20267115121.61417.56419.58918.618362733280.0283464721.1783464728.769.938346472TT-10.38616.61422299.525606890665.57667639699640.10719060107711612142216WETL
2025-11-30 07:00:07FORECAST20267115121.61417.56419.58940.5873917710470.0283464721.1783464728.769.938346472TT-10.38620.61422315.71927995212.8142221050850.1071906010771161214128WETL
2025-11-30 03:00:05FORECAST20267115119.88619.79619.84147.1176882833190.0716535821.6416535828.8810.521653582TT-12.11418.88622320.3611942990515.0946788910540.0782199602982091612151210WETL