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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 9, 2025

[ Monday, December 8, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 10, 2025 ]

DAY 70 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/06/2025 11:00:02 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.97°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.12°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.598
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 53

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.99 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 7.43 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.89 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 23 in
SWE DAY: 23
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 303.61 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.84 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 150

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-06 11:00:02FORECAST20267015036.26625.9731.11822.5429041033951.9858278447.4258278448.8916.315827844TT4.26653.26623303.605573885896.84415133736560.597615919042781632152230WETL
2025-12-06 07:00:05FORECAST20267015036.9525.5231.23525.1630004673082.0582688287.4082688289.3316.738268828TT4.9553.9523305.557613804477.68874637895130.622632368393971632152230WETL
2025-12-06 03:00:06FORECAST20267015036.73425.39431.06424.8429171297722.0460640977.2860640979.1716.456064097TT4.73451.73423305.319839387117.58503546796920.614782383794091632152230WETL
2025-12-05 23:00:02FORECAST20267015036.24826.70831.47820.3766730688991.7051190316.8951190319.4916.385119031TT4.24849.24823301.981836209296.15338514918250.596951663041451632152230WETL
2025-12-05 19:00:02FORECAST20267015035.70825.82630.76722.2955576289171.874016766.824016769.3416.16401676TT3.70849.70823303.42062236376.76493197171190.576902195900691632152230WETL
2025-12-05 15:00:01FORECAST20267015036.30226.38431.34321.8093154240671.9653553927.4353553929.3116.745355392TT4.30250.30223303.056699390746.60945914838950.5989435841651632152230WETL
2025-12-05 11:00:03FORECAST20267015034.05226.9630.50622.9268944320052.5783478497.4283478499.2216.648347849TT2.05247.05223303.892469735316.96731057230280.51438789284611632152230WETL
2025-12-05 07:00:04FORECAST20267015034.46626.76230.61436.220311945672.5783478497.4083478499.0416.448347849TT2.46648.46623313.6539888407511.3606453188160.530110796988931632151215WETL
2025-12-05 03:00:05FORECAST20267015033.83626.09629.96634.293540085382.090552316.930552318.8415.77055231TT1.83646.83623312.2594791305910.7084829646050.506174194937441632151215WETL
2025-12-04 23:00:03FORECAST20267015031.22625.5228.37333.9113677229412.0066939977.1066939978.7515.856693997TT-0.77445.22623311.9820681703210.5797386366870.407729240931211622151212.5WETL
2025-12-04 19:00:02FORECAST20267015031.22624.74627.98632.9202453735352.0129932137.0629932138.6915.752993213TT-0.77444.22623311.2613770818510.2468009088390.407729240931211622151212.5WETL
2025-12-04 15:00:03FORECAST20267015031.8225.59228.70631.8510540815491.822835636.542835638.7915.33283563TT-0.1845.8223310.481881445199.88917519725160.429851862795831622152225WETL
2025-12-04 11:00:03FORECAST20267015034.82626.79830.81229.5351775840782.1641743976.7841743978.615.384174397TT2.82651.82623308.786211935039.12005560501580.543745692840491632152230WETL
2025-12-04 07:00:04FORECAST20267015034.91627.39231.15432.5876374604132.1641743976.8241743979.2316.054174397TT2.91656.91623311.0191155456210.1353781806590.547147016170781632151215WETL
2025-12-04 03:00:07FORECAST20267015034.55626.94230.74952.128964770321.7767726136.5767726139.9816.556772613TT2.55654.55623324.9108307020916.9372652471650.533523464268331632151215WETL
2025-12-03 23:00:03FORECAST20267015036.46426.94231.70353.8910684339733.1610253299.4410253299.7519.191025329TT4.46458.46423326.1299299263917.575490372030.604903741723221632151215WETL
2025-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20267015036.84226.94231.89255.898289272493.1610253299.5010253299.7519.251025329TT4.84257.84223327.5119803224618.3073594162710.61871347942221632151215WETL
2025-12-03 15:00:03FORECAST20267015036.64426.92431.78456.6352655620613.5515767219.6615767219.5719.231576721TT4.64455.64423328.0176515678918.5773668055910.611497420100281632151215WETL
2025-12-03 11:00:03FORECAST20267015036.30228.6732.48649.3053035382293.2173245728.0973245728.9617.057324572TT4.30256.30223322.9458872472815.922944997150.5989435841651632151215WETL
2025-12-03 07:00:07FORECAST20267015035.9629.42632.69327.202997690543.2173245728.0973245729.2317.327324572TT3.9655.9623307.068495284028.3531835680490.586286764412361632152230WETL
2025-12-03 03:00:04FORECAST20267015035.72629.42632.57620.6078039537463.4799231398.1599231399.0317.189923139TT3.72652.72623302.155510625256.22676152650910.577574037782691632152230WETL
2025-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20267015035.5125.98830.74917.0062544877742.5704738296.1404738298.314.440473829TT3.5148.5123299.437646600535.09231282130860.569497592559041632152230WETL
2025-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20267015035.74429.73232.73815.9494746054452.5527572846.2127572847.4813.692757284TT3.74447.74423298.635431533784.76307823153410.578245654084011632153245WETH
2025-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20267015035.52830.23632.88216.3551073042962.9019700716.2619700717.7313.991970071TT3.52845.52823298.943607144994.88925477278970.570171789796291632153245WETH
2025-12-02 11:00:06FORECAST20267015035.85230.32633.08913.5130343514362.2858280064.7158280067.8712.585828006TT3.85249.85223296.777672826194.01036688763970.582270508372771632153245WETH
2025-12-02 07:00:06FORECAST20267015036.60832.16234.38528.7234724748982.2858280064.7158280067.8312.545828006TT4.60854.60823308.18952218678.85227325758160.610181184534161632152230WETL
2025-12-02 03:00:05FORECAST20267015032.12628.59830.36233.7340368550572.2389775874.5989775877.6112.208977587TT0.12641.12623311.8532558921710.5200692276360.441339570346911622151212.5WETL
2025-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20267015032.48629.9331.20829.9349605027451.8968514183.9968514188.3812.376851418TT0.48643.48623309.079643122889.2522869090860.45491725037181622152225WETL
2025-12-01 19:00:03FORECAST20267015032.48629.9331.20831.0004018076361.8968514183.9968514188.4312.426851418TT0.48641.48623309.860198159629.60579064714190.45491725037181622152225WETL
2025-12-01 15:00:03FORECAST20267015032.88230.68631.78430.6697248299861.8019694774.3319694778.3612.691969477TT0.88245.88223309.618166277169.49590396208550.469913159665761622152225WETL
2025-12-01 11:00:03FORECAST20267015035.02430.81232.91828.1952785777652.0968515264.7768515268.1112.886851526TT3.02449.02423307.800582143598.67852315993660.551224021014181632152230WETL
2025-12-01 07:00:05FORECAST20267015035.58231.31633.44913.071757880712.0968515264.7768515268.0912.866851526TT3.58248.58223296.439972985033.87499155302470.572193146577851632153245WETH
2025-12-01 03:00:03FORECAST20267015036.08631.76633.92614.6072491800652.4145682335.3745682338.2813.654568233TT4.08647.08623297.613421876864.34731341268720.590960987205451632153245WETH
2025-11-30 23:00:04FORECAST20267015033.2629.13831.19915.9810977921131.0062997563.9562997567.8411.796299756TT1.2635.2623298.659468364664.77290617047620.484267662971421622153237.5WETL
2025-11-30 19:00:03FORECAST20267015033.4429.2131.32518.6451871991641.0015753443.9715753447.8911.861575344TT1.4434.4423300.677529735815.60618882850640.491111461864831622152225WETL
2025-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20267015034.03428.99431.51420.0021417571250.7622051363.6222051367.8411.462205136TT2.03434.03423301.700192495476.03465001844650.513703603025251632152230WETL
2025-11-30 11:00:04FORECAST20267015033.1720.76826.96918.2508776239930.2216536632.1816536637.739.911653663TT1.1733.1723300.379698543245.48219311884460.480847374650361622152225WETL
2025-11-30 07:00:06FORECAST20267015035.47420.76828.12140.2199066617590.2216536632.1816536637.739.911653663TT3.47437.47423316.5270174893912.7306870993480.56814859215991632151215WETL
2025-11-30 03:00:05FORECAST20267015034.86219.95827.4146.1439268933930.5496065962.7596065967.6910.449606596TT2.86236.86223320.7291459400314.7997022628370.545106621047271632151215WETL
2025-11-29 23:00:04FORECAST20267015029.10224.22426.66331.2683354871060.2216536631.0516536636.877.921653663TT-2.89824.10223310.056157404289.69493994955990.331447679985751622142220WETL
2025-11-29 19:00:03FORECAST20267015032.07220.22826.1531.4743449831050.2216536631.0516536636.877.921653663TT0.07200000000000321.07223310.206736359519.76355383626220.439308453387731622142220WETL
2025-11-29 15:00:02FORECAST20267015035.97824.24230.1136.439060716780.5960633141.6460633147.178.816063314TT3.97833.97823313.8118782759911.4350100861450.586955275901531632151215WETL
2025-11-29 11:00:52FORECAST20267015025.50224.27824.8941.0408490141061.0909454713.1609454715.58.660945471TT-6.49823.50223317.1131233402513.0145918153990.217921852740331612151210WETL
2025-11-29 07:00:05FORECAST20267015025.50224.27824.8933.5153432457251.0909454713.1309454715.448.570945471TT-6.49831.50223311.6943180016410.4465420555670.217921852740331612151210WETL
2025-11-29 03:00:06FORECAST20267015024.5324.18824.35914.8666483281180.0956693431.2956693435.436.725669343TT-7.4722.5323297.811207681414.42745449277160.191618468301341612143224WETL