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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 7, 2025

[ Saturday, December 6, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, December 8, 2025 ]

DAY 68 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/06/2025 11:00:02 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.66°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.08°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.87°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.471
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 52

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.34 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.94 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.41 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 23 in
SWE DAY: 25
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 306.03 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.98 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 148

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-06 11:00:02FORECAST20266814831.65828.07629.86722.8105521033951.3358274934.9358274935.4110.345827493TT-0.34251.65825306.032220534116.98076391181090.471394961520511623152230WETL
2025-12-06 07:00:05FORECAST20266814831.7327.93229.83124.7453813597321.3811031085.4211031085.4110.831103108TT-0.2751.7325307.463076078087.60829107158810.474278776047211623152230WETL
2025-12-06 03:00:06FORECAST20266814831.3727.57229.47124.32115492721.3625991615.2425991615.4110.652599161TT-0.6351.3725307.149951415887.47024155426750.459876196960831623152230WETL
2025-12-05 23:00:02FORECAST20266814831.62227.80629.71420.0774002672931.1696856715.3696856715.4110.779685671TT-0.37848.62225303.998964909026.10350889932120.469953606991711623152230WETL
2025-12-05 19:00:02FORECAST20266814831.62226.70829.16521.0918008588991.0082682615.0582682615.4110.468268261TT-0.37848.62225304.75524897346.42783702205110.469953606991711623152230WETL
2025-12-05 15:00:01FORECAST20266814832.05426.67229.36320.9233691117041.1374021895.1574021895.4110.567402189TT0.05400000000000249.05425304.629809941066.37388195582510.487270447361851623152230WETL
2025-12-05 11:00:02FORECAST20266814831.60426.43829.02120.8744653205991.0696856174.9996856175.4110.409685617TT-0.39648.60425304.593378937216.35822392550890.469233076144081623152230WETL
2025-12-05 07:00:03FORECAST20266814831.74828.41830.08324.7689935962661.0980320894.8480320895.4110.258032089TT-0.25249.74825307.480494533717.61598240008230.474999946252461623152230WETL
2025-12-05 03:00:05FORECAST20266814831.3728.56229.96624.455263753451.0425202484.5925202485.4110.002520248TT-0.6349.3725307.248974604757.51385471193630.459876196960831623152230WETL
2025-12-04 23:00:03FORECAST20266814832.32427.5929.95722.4635484819261.4192921054.7592921055.5310.289292105TT0.32449.32425305.774858024286.86878834778260.49810775711091623152230WETL
2025-12-04 19:00:02FORECAST20266814831.87427.71629.79522.328332736991.3677172744.6477172745.5310.177717274TT-0.12648.87425305.674510999816.82520219082050.480050299320451623152230WETL
2025-12-04 15:00:03FORECAST20266814831.62227.39229.50722.6236539857581.3417330084.7217330085.5310.251733008TT-0.37848.62225305.893631813226.9204316825890.469953606991711623152230WETL
2025-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20266814833.85429.51631.68522.6332016669671.4905519864.6805519865.5310.210551986TT1.85452.85425305.900713205986.923512532060.559311182127911633152235WETL
2025-12-04 07:00:04FORECAST20266814834.50229.82232.16224.9007540265231.5283472825.3883472825.4910.878347282TT2.50256.50225307.577673400767.65891598940250.584895034573511633152235WETL
2025-12-04 03:00:07FORECAST20266814834.23229.69631.96435.1123124424561.645670185.785670185.9611.74567018TT2.23255.23225315.011049829411.0607664044360.574272307391731633151217.5WETL
2025-12-03 23:00:03FORECAST20266814834.86230.54232.70236.3190341591732.0114184096.0714184095.8111.881418409TT2.86256.86225315.8767976899111.472340205390.598961418461311633151217.5WETL
2025-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20266814835.25830.23632.74736.5476733345492.0685050545.8085050546.1311.938505054TT3.25856.25825316.0405332842411.5505461709490.61428696988221633151217.5WETL
2025-12-03 15:00:02FORECAST20266814834.4329.78632.10836.3847633523491.9425207345.4125207346.2211.632520734TT2.4354.4325315.9238781398711.4948155434760.582068031647281633151217.5WETL
2025-12-03 11:00:02FORECAST20266814834.75430.14632.4532.2187137214981.4665362254.6865362255.8610.546536225TT2.75454.75425312.9242299857710.0820161824320.594754065197531633151217.5WETL
2025-12-03 07:00:07FORECAST20266814835.25830.21832.73825.6249738985311.4665362254.8665362255.9510.816536225TT3.25854.25825308.111235784827.89534237483020.61428696988221633152235WETL
2025-12-03 03:00:04FORECAST20266814834.44829.4831.96416.1476924915481.6669300344.8869300345.9310.816930034TT2.44852.44825301.050714704724.86127436541250.582775186016091633153252.5WETL
2025-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20266814834.68228.7631.72113.3414838447941.6484260874.6684260875.410.068426087TT2.68248.68225298.927282607863.98813351168080.591943035920611633153252.5WETL
2025-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20266814834.01628.2231.11815.5363602555941.6925205994.5325205994.769.292520599TT2.01648.01625300.589413862364.67006542278330.565734754128971633153252.5WETL
2025-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20266814833.02627.66230.34416.6653625042961.4681110294.4781110294.849.318111029TT1.02646.02625301.440779935875.0236198712090.526271338492981633152235WETL
2025-12-02 11:00:05FORECAST20266814833.27828.83231.05514.0163503514361.346457424.636457424.79.33645742TT1.27848.27825299.439330966194.19704657182180.536356716502441633153252.5WETL
2025-12-02 07:00:06FORECAST20266814833.90829.28231.59528.0319566969011.346457424.506457424.799.29645742TT1.90851.90825309.877523065228.68647330790740.561454193453721633152235WETL
2025-12-02 03:00:04FORECAST20266814832.14428.09430.11928.3142534005091.2476384694.2776384694.78.977638469TT0.14445.14425310.083970842728.77979612587670.490882234933811623152230WETL
2025-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20266814831.92828.27430.10129.3509726026821.0688982154.4888982155.089.568898215TT-0.07199999999999945.92825310.840870232819.12348186599690.482215764570221623152230WETL
2025-12-01 19:00:03FORECAST20266814831.96427.4129.68730.3075652150051.0688982154.5488982155.079.618898215TT-0.03600000000000144.96425311.537504121459.44194322308090.483659703567461623152230WETL
2025-12-01 15:00:03FORECAST20266814833.4427.84230.64130.0134519072741.0948824814.5348824815.049.574882481TT1.4449.4425311.323497721889.34389282647990.542828267433951633152235WETL
2025-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20266814833.40426.0629.73228.5290513777650.901575294.311575294.829.13157529TT1.40451.40425310.240956658378.85088019199360.541391064948831633152235WETL
2025-12-01 07:00:04FORECAST20266814830.66826.36628.51712.5321732497520.901575294.311575294.89.11157529TT-1.33249.66825298.312067550373.73849851303310.431958966003191623153245WETL
2025-12-01 03:00:03FORECAST20266814829.9326.36628.14812.010900858551.0811029464.6411029464.849.481102946TT-2.0749.9325297.915140865043.57822922119110.402974594843751623153245WETL
2025-11-30 23:00:03FORECAST20266814830.2926.36628.32814.1601209193761.0992131924.5392131924.529.059213192TT-1.7141.2925299.548302112224.24164017910270.417057177373561623153245WETL
2025-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20266814830.57826.628.58917.3784393661231.1015753984.5315753984.589.111575398TT-1.42238.57825301.977245416165.24789324941340.428401297715541623152230WETL
2025-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20266814830.7426.58228.66117.3516749897641.2240164094.6840164094.59.184016409TT-1.2639.7425301.957127454885.23946193643980.434809092964821623152230WETL
2025-11-30 11:00:04FORECAST20266814830.32626.13228.22917.1033509155131.0303155173.9303155174.958.880315517TT-1.67440.32625301.770404634765.16128512638470.418471625524541623152230WETL
2025-11-30 07:00:06FORECAST20266814830.14623.68426.91533.4143005061741.0303155173.9303155174.958.880315517TT-1.85441.14625313.7883289699710.4850175195330.411410287268851623151215WETL
2025-11-30 03:00:05FORECAST20266814829.91225.4327.67134.8515668754031.1854337114.0854337114.918.995433711TT-2.08841.91225314.8236321925810.9720968713170.402273596280971623151215WETL
2025-11-29 23:00:04FORECAST20266814831.1923.73827.46427.1316095565690.6047247362.7847247364.817.594724736TT-0.8134.1925309.218095994568.38958464835020.452693415208371623152230WETL
2025-11-29 19:00:03FORECAST20266814831.17223.05427.11327.2078191651150.6047247362.7847247364.817.594724736TT-0.82828.17225309.273971437068.41467028733650.451975948306311623152230WETL
2025-11-29 15:00:02FORECAST20266814831.9126.02428.96729.3956394205880.7728350633.2728350634.798.062835063TT-0.0932.9125310.873436310819.13832343923190.481493881357251623152230WETL
2025-11-29 11:00:43FORECAST20266814833.2628.9431.123.449426095071.3791346032.4991346034.56.999134603TT1.2636.2625306.505461958997.18737717794270.535637029339991633152235WETL
2025-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20266814832.97228.95830.96515.917938805931.3527566362.4627566364.456.912756636TT0.97244.97225300.877430515414.78934852702980.52410777132311633153252.5WETL
2025-11-29 03:00:06FORECAST20266814831.98227.55429.76813.1896393061641.1346462822.3046462824.386.684646282TT-0.01800000000000137.98225298.811951037643.94122185455760.484381754622861623153245WETL
2025-11-28 23:00:03FORECAST20266814834.729.6632.186.25644573389030.3874017841.4474017844.275.717401784TF2.740.725293.498266783611.83625597912250.592646243004441633144256WETM
2025-11-28 19:00:02FORECAST20266814834.729.6632.186.54957117103270.3874017841.4474017844.275.717401784TF2.736.725293.72482127731.92377162165450.592646243004441633144256WETM
2025-11-28 15:00:02FORECAST20266814834.55630.2932.4236.67806410044320.6476381451.6776381454.366.037638145TT2.55637.55625293.82407935271.9621760361710.587012414853781633154270WETH
2025-11-28 11:00:03FORECAST20266814832.61223.14427.87814.0517088676081.0559060822.8659060824.357.215906082TT0.61244.61225299.466134703584.20801094056250.509668897628991633153252.5WETL
2025-11-28 07:00:07FORECAST20266814832.6323.14427.88713.6618406288161.0767722352.9367722354.347.276772235TT0.6344.6325299.170459620284.08721914018180.510391300027981633153252.5WETL
2025-11-28 03:00:06FORECAST20266814833.22421.32627.2758.8428013435160.562992432.632992434.587.21299243TT1.22451.22425295.491432192552.61297203358970.534197307522921633153252.5WETL
2025-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20266814828.20222.62225.4129.5932082406710.1704725332.1104725335.297.400472533TT-3.79832.20225296.067284088312.8402351095090.337407603398891623153245WETL
2025-11-27 19:00:03FORECAST20266814828.20222.62225.4128.41927534964990.1704725332.1104725335.327.430472533TT-3.79838.20225295.165939309822.48508331688740.337407603398891623154260WETL
2025-11-27 15:00:05FORECAST20266814829.1226.8727.99514.3937988208850.767716953.437716955.318.74771695TT-2.8840.1225299.725333793794.31418615615040.371770709768521623153245WETL
2025-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20266814830.63227.89629.26417.7060558643090.263779672.593779674.627.21377967TT-1.36831.63225302.223393894775.35118429580170.430535219707251623152230WETL
2025-11-27 07:00:05FORECAST20266814830.63227.89629.26417.2052158361810.263779672.593779674.977.56377967TT-1.36828.63225301.847014376515.19334303185470.430535219707251623152230WETL
2025-11-27 03:00:06FORECAST20266814828.7628.09428.42724.24555198788102.34.847.14TT-3.2424.7625307.094112896647.44566627940780.358154904635661623152230WETL