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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 6, 2025

[ Friday, December 5, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, December 7, 2025 ]

DAY 67 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/06/2025 11:00:01 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.310
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 53

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.35 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.67 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.34 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 21 in
SWE DAY: 26
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 305.75 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.40 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 147

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-06 11:00:01FORECAST20266714728.11224.06226.08720.9334000848391.3488196264.6688196264.349.008819626TT-3.88853.11226305.749565631876.40037798313780.310132267722151623152230WETL
2025-12-06 07:00:04FORECAST20266714728.07624.18826.13222.7318976686181.787402545.107402544.349.44740254TT-3.92453.07626307.081118826156.98053656912090.308700933439171623152230WETL
2025-12-06 03:00:05FORECAST20266714727.75223.75625.75422.262522816631.6267725324.9467725324.349.286772532TT-4.24852.75226306.734194267376.8286769985180.295951406769291623152230WETL
2025-12-05 23:00:02FORECAST20266714727.75226.00626.87919.2514666570821.6909457955.2709457954.349.610945795TT-4.24849.75226304.498796765525.86204843305290.295951406769291623152230WETL
2025-12-05 19:00:01FORECAST20266714728.47225.7927.13118.6489671525811.5437016215.1237016214.349.463701621TT-3.52850.47226304.049446860085.67020814725420.324601026236531623152230WETL
2025-12-05 15:00:01FORECAST20266714728.25625.73626.99618.5363637109551.5110244385.0910244384.349.431024438TT-3.74450.25626303.96538983765.63441302157210.315886226302961623152230WETL
2025-12-05 11:00:02FORECAST20266714727.98625.62826.80720.7700979503281.4224417135.0024417134.349.342441713TT-4.01449.98626305.628360170956.34793097714870.305135313912531623152230WETL
2025-12-05 07:00:03FORECAST20266714728.63425.95227.29320.8078625238241.5295283854.8195283854.349.159528385TT-3.36650.63426305.65639411156.36005622820.331201032621641623152230WETL
2025-12-05 03:00:04FORECAST20266714728.61625.80827.21220.64920317971.5413394154.6213394154.348.961339415TT-3.38450.61626305.53859774326.30912858404010.330465057331451623152230WETL
2025-12-04 23:00:03FORECAST20266714727.93225.98826.9617.4440663647021.2496069744.5296069744.348.869606974TT-4.06849.93226303.148754964735.28814699998140.303004749203111623152230WETL
2025-12-04 19:00:02FORECAST20266714728.3125.64626.97817.4694380707241.248032174.468032174.348.80803217TT-3.6950.3126303.167749341215.2961702221570.318055605727141623152230WETL
2025-12-04 15:00:02FORECAST20266714727.89625.82626.86117.8671443618711.2106305754.5706305754.348.910630575TT-4.10449.89626303.465329862395.42205885747420.301588078292531623152230WETL
2025-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20266714729.64227.08628.36419.5324784008671.2972447954.3772447954.348.717244795TT-2.35851.64226304.708142970855.95170522114630.373381832882611623152230WETL
2025-12-04 07:00:04FORECAST20266714730.81227.57229.19221.6003836399641.366142475.006142474.349.34614247TT-1.18854.81226306.244089837196.61498982795490.424282127290621623152230WETL
2025-12-04 03:00:06FORECAST20266714730.93828.0429.48929.1866365752931.543307925.763307924.3410.10330792TT-1.06253.93826311.810232167559.1006919267320.429856414077171623152230WETL
2025-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20266714730.61428.70629.6628.9502763895291.318898355.528898354.349.86889835TT-1.38654.61426311.638425214239.02201854354950.415553464173691623152230WETL
2025-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20266714730.66828.88629.77729.0189843147081.3429141115.5329141114.349.872914111TT-1.33253.66826311.688378689929.04488017227980.417930070812471623152230WETL
2025-12-03 15:00:02FORECAST20266714729.91227.42828.6729.0477892484871.3122054335.3522054334.349.692205433TT-2.08852.91226311.709318463169.05446658950730.384968440428621623152230WETL
2025-12-03 11:00:02FORECAST20266714730.57827.89629.23726.7153327524761.0181107864.7381107864.349.078110786TT-1.42252.57826310.008766650778.28198735726010.41397076823121623152230WETL
2025-12-03 07:00:07FORECAST20266714730.43427.7729.10225.7714914985311.125984865.005984864.349.34598486TT-1.56652.43426309.317760686197.97158003986870.407654190227251623152230WETL
2025-12-03 03:00:04FORECAST20266714729.51627.10428.3116.2660676915481.0559060824.8059060824.349.145906082TT-2.48450.51626302.2655041274.91667115094960.368012951509571623153245WETL
2025-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20266714729.89427.44628.6713.3411426969920.9114178154.4414178153.988.421417815TT-2.10646.89426300.060965000534.00315615186940.384192667505331623153245WETL
2025-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20266714729.13827.03228.08514.0527819318790.8303154093.6203154093.987.600315409TT-2.86247.13826300.598841746044.22424997203270.352063984417221623153245WETL
2025-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20266714728.52626.5127.51814.6494749470240.9948824273.8748824273.987.854882427TT-3.47445.52626301.049090173834.41021110432590.326795049242521623153245WETL
2025-12-02 11:00:05FORECAST20266714729.58827.48228.53513.7451709521480.8673233034.0073233033.987.987323303TT-2.41247.58826300.366460098834.12858834234990.3710778046121623153245WETL
2025-12-02 07:00:05FORECAST20266714730.52427.78829.15623.9157959788220.8673233033.9173233034.037.947323303TT-1.47650.52426307.95432720927.36497286033060.411599349215381623152230WETL
2025-12-02 03:00:04FORECAST20266714728.8526.5127.6823.9451691783040.7011814813.7011814814.037.731181481TT-3.1545.8526307.975958647757.37453643267080.340082899877481623152230WETL
2025-12-01 23:00:02FORECAST20266714730.39826.9628.67928.2728551466941.0326777234.4826777234.028.502677723TT-1.60247.39826311.145445246598.79697010301040.406078720645151623152230WETL
2025-12-01 19:00:03FORECAST20266714730.23626.5128.37328.6911637340861.0326777234.55267772348.552677723TT-1.76446.23626311.449961250768.93586183322040.399008258675421623152230WETL
2025-12-01 15:00:03FORECAST20266714730.36227.69829.0327.8879368286470.9582682344.5182682343.968.478268234TT-1.63849.36226310.864950364558.66938209800710.404504770170791623152230WETL
2025-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20266714731.22625.66428.44523.9951154476430.5440947824.23409478248.234094782TT-0.77451.22626308.012737100397.39080118606840.442648509292121623152230WETL
2025-12-01 07:00:04FORECAST20266714731.26226.04228.65210.9679572289670.5440947824.2540947823.968.214094782TT-0.73852.26226298.260201785933.27130513629110.444252016697421623153245WETL
2025-12-01 03:00:03FORECAST20266714731.42425.95228.68811.2521485522460.7145673154.4245673153.988.404567315TT-0.57653.42426298.476417517453.35850098924860.451478723095011623153245WETL
2025-11-30 23:00:03FORECAST20266714729.55226.65428.10313.419008297341.0901580694.0001580693.967.960158069TT-2.44843.55226300.11986537054.02731096360340.369544342317181623153245WETL
2025-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20266714728.6726.627.63515.2156398694541.0913391723.9913391724.028.011339172TT-3.3340.6726301.475672468814.5871452616870.332674937337941623153245WETL
2025-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20266714728.68826.56427.62615.2625499848511.0122052713.9022052714.067.962205271TT-3.31241.68826301.510989825214.60182655318930.33341286184581623153245WETL
2025-11-30 11:00:03FORECAST20266714730.00227.10428.55316.2045450858561.4393708563.84937085647.849370856TT-1.99843.00226302.219302477714.89732631281590.388854155306711623153245WETL
2025-11-30 07:00:06FORECAST20266714729.96626.11428.0427.4497966695641.4393708563.84937085647.849370856TT-2.03443.96626310.545338134088.52440638846150.387298511029771623152230WETL
2025-11-30 03:00:04FORECAST20266714729.96626.8728.41827.7177998960541.4307094343.7807094344.037.810709434TT-2.03444.96626310.74088199088.61305358654430.387298511029771623152230WETL
2025-11-29 23:00:04FORECAST20266714730.97425.62828.30123.3050979292360.59055153.06055153.936.9905515TT-1.02635.97426307.504222291727.16641601416220.431451689619821623152230WETL
2025-11-29 19:00:03FORECAST20266714730.97424.51227.74323.3280997685170.59055153.06055153.936.9905515TT-1.02629.97426307.521188074117.17388495632550.431451689619821623152230WETL
2025-11-29 15:00:02FORECAST20266714731.38826.88829.13824.5871708656150.7543311163.3843311163.917.294331116TT-0.61234.38826308.448347962467.58387223456960.449871311895681623152230WETL
2025-11-29 11:00:39FORECAST20266714732.52228.47230.49717.5346463587980.5496065961.6296065963.995.619606596TF0.52235.52226303.216561521925.31679517641740.500762636676991633152235WETL
2025-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20266714732.68429.94831.3169.99507199610320.5484254931.6084254933.955.558425493TF0.68444.68426297.518837717712.97372220318540.508051229075451633153252.5WETL
2025-11-29 03:00:06FORECAST20266714732.25229.49830.8759.444995250.6681105971.6281105973.925.548110597TF0.25239.25226297.098853347472.80609725864730.488615618443371623153245WETL
2025-11-28 23:00:03FORECAST20266714733.63831.06432.3516.34884333389030.7003940791.2603940794.075.330394079TF1.63838.63826294.72395907651.87115624292060.550838322819921633144256WETM
2025-11-28 19:00:02FORECAST20266714734.39431.06432.7296.64196877103270.7003940791.2603940794.075.330394079TF2.39435.39426294.949601334591.95904604109290.584354124907291633144256WETM
2025-11-28 15:00:02FORECAST20266714734.12431.22632.6756.75835850044320.3665356311.2865356314.15.386535631TF2.12436.12426295.039149297321.9939803426170.572441376311211633144256WETM
2025-11-28 11:00:03FORECAST20266714736.84230.75833.87.35113999299930.5448821842.1448821844.026.164882184TT4.84244.84226295.494813152752.1722237386910.68763146162961633154270WETH
2025-11-28 07:00:07FORECAST20266714736.51830.7433.6296.96156695420690.5688979452.19889794546.198897945TT4.51844.51826295.195430429982.05502275351430.674582973850991633154270WETH
2025-11-28 03:00:06FORECAST20266714736.57231.35233.9626.95724623236130.7921264122.5921264124.066.652126412TT4.57250.57226295.192108340052.05372418357160.676773196686031633154270WETH
2025-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20266714735.07828.41831.7487.71725733628251.287402272.637402274.597.22740227TT3.07837.07826295.775900525922.28257873822920.614164692038851633154270WETL
2025-11-27 19:00:03FORECAST20266714735.07828.41831.7486.54332444526141.287402272.627402274.637.25740227TT3.07843.07826294.873685606331.92945419529220.614164692038851633154270WETL
2025-11-27 15:00:05FORECAST20266714735.63628.43632.0366.91679449152871.3362211943.3162211944.667.976221194TT3.63643.63626295.161004286742.04156800856460.638002632904421633154270WETH
2025-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20266714734.5226.9630.7416.0637317810390.9039374962.4739374964.486.953937496TT2.5233.5226302.113528691494.85307069232330.589887688563671633153252.5WETL
2025-11-27 07:00:05FORECAST20266714734.5226.9630.7415.5628917529110.9039374962.4739374964.837.303937496TT2.5230.5226301.737009321074.6959004139110.589887688563671633153252.5WETL
2025-11-27 03:00:06FORECAST20266714735.04227.89631.46924.2455519878811.0409454442.4409454444.77.140945444TT3.04229.04226308.197078306127.47240828458420.612610748834671633152235WETL
2025-11-26 23:00:03FORECAST20266714729.76823.0926.42922.3572347751450.625984592.465984594.657.11598459TT-2.23234.76826306.804231127346.85929422532170.378775398046691623152230WETL
2025-11-26 19:00:03FORECAST20266714729.76823.0926.42922.6243262171690.625984592.465984594.847.30598459TT-2.23237.76826307.00164709436.94570541306950.378775398046691623152230WETL
2025-11-26 15:00:03FORECAST20266714735.83430.00232.91816.864302493020.7059058932.1559058935.027.175905893TT3.83441.83426302.714384463745.10506694858470.646339609083641633152235WETL
2025-11-26 11:00:03FORECAST20266714735.7834.01634.89810.4100888223060.6236223840.7836223844.65.383622384TF3.7835.7826297.835315503043.10049208880630.644072638260921633133231.5WETM
2025-11-26 07:00:10FORECAST20266714735.7834.01634.8983.81689575474890.6236223840.9536223844.285.233622384TF3.7841.7826292.767906346231.11746457885970.644072638260921633134242WETM
2025-11-26 03:00:05FORECAST20266714738.08438.04838.0661.757028675968800.274.264.53TF6.08448.08426291.167252489070.511589212126350.735403781128691643124232WETM