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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 5, 2025

[ Thursday, December 4, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, December 6, 2025 ]

DAY 66 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/06/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.02°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.630
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 54

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.25 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.32 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.67 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.99 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 16 in
SWE DAY: 27
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 303.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 4.92 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 146

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 52.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-06 07:00:03OBSERVATION20266614637.0200231.6999434.3599816.220442.253.324.677.99TT5.0200254.0200227303.35264903958 4.92051344258760.630074250489816 33153252.5WETH
2025-12-06 03:00:05OBSERVATION20266614637.0200231.6999434.3599816.220442.253.324.677.99TT5.0200254.0200227303.35264903958 4.92051344258760.630074250489816 33153252.5WETH
2025-12-05 11:00:01FORECAST20266614633.63828.1330.88415.5050373396052.5129934833.5829934834.678.252993483TT1.63850.63827302.816933762214.69518786504790.48614308361021623153245WETL
2025-12-05 07:00:03FORECAST20266614633.96227.78830.87515.135678188492.2236232483.2936232484.677.963623248TT1.96250.96227302.539965118014.57914755118330.500158643848621633153252.5WETL
2025-12-05 03:00:04FORECAST20266614633.81827.78830.80314.8159365568582.0125995123.0825995124.677.752599512TT1.81850.81827302.299992880574.47885751565720.49392850148531623153245WETL
2025-12-04 23:00:02FORECAST20266614633.94427.91430.92912.4991616713842.0929145163.2829145164.677.952914516TT1.94450.94427300.555374488683.75669021693740.499379847007021633153252.5WETL
2025-12-04 19:00:02FORECAST20266614633.9827.06830.52412.4672166174272.0334656653.2234656654.677.893465665TT1.9850.9827300.531246836963.74678815462190.500937440085611633153252.5WETL
2025-12-04 15:00:01FORECAST20266614634.14227.44630.79413.0906574731882.1673240053.3573240054.678.027324005TT2.14251.14227301.001769441083.94031106257650.507946089336591633153252.5WETL
2025-12-04 11:00:02FORECAST20266614634.2528.20231.22614.619576987491.8874025943.0774025944.677.747402594TT2.2551.2527302.152524627624.41734209575790.512617293220931633153252.5WETL
2025-12-04 07:00:04FORECAST20266614634.59228.29231.44216.5598209568882.4885840213.6385840214.678.308584021TT2.59252.59227303.60644758825.02766841341740.527394976836781633152235WETL
2025-12-04 03:00:06FORECAST20266614634.28628.83231.55923.4191598063552.5960643944.2160643944.678.886064394TT2.28652.28627308.689433647727.2292471771290.514174008264941633152235WETL
2025-12-03 23:00:02FORECAST20266614634.98830.7432.86423.8821916937112.7429148674.2129148674.678.882914867TT2.98852.98827309.029374540657.38029876176740.544457660440391633152235WETL
2025-12-03 19:00:02FORECAST20266614635.25830.54232.923.8956714001412.3964579874.1864579874.678.856457987TT3.25852.25827309.039264855057.38470072271760.556046392400971633152235WETL
2025-12-03 15:00:02FORECAST20266614634.9728.90431.93723.7705158151472.1566940784.0366940784.678.706694078TT2.9751.9727308.947422820667.34383960020750.543683620166971633152235WETL
2025-12-03 11:00:02FORECAST20266614634.50229.4831.99122.65641259262.2003948893.7203948894.678.390394889TT2.50250.50227308.128580364436.98108824830860.523508934306311633152235WETL
2025-12-03 07:00:06FORECAST20266614634.39429.26431.82923.3978598257232.2665366573.8765366574.678.546536657TT2.39451.39427308.673786368617.22230598532780.518842762813151633152235WETL
2025-12-03 03:00:04FORECAST20266614633.3528.2230.78512.0283544135812.1633869953.7533869954.678.423386995TT1.3550.3527300.199582094133.61090696823720.473698624576331623153245WETL
2025-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20266614633.45827.84230.6510.4344445551382.1090562573.5290562574.317.839056257TT1.45846.45827298.991889670923.11981429520710.478362943823881623153245WETL
2025-12-02 19:00:02FORECAST20266614633.18828.6730.92910.3582612920722.0110247082.7910247084.317.101024708TT1.18847.18827298.934043714533.09643693389060.466709100048311623153245WETL
2025-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20266614633.04428.29230.66810.1443556833752.0228357382.8828357384.317.192835738TT1.04446.04427298.771565322683.03084502671190.460504728975021623153245WETL
2025-12-02 11:00:04FORECAST20266614633.74630.07431.9110.0294762918052.421261153.141261154.317.45126115TT1.74646.74627298.684268807872.99564679274360.490813890608931623153245WETL
2025-12-02 07:00:05FORECAST20266614634.5230.8332.67520.1540666430252.2870091093.0470091094.367.407009109TT2.5248.5227306.280939641376.17280646902050.524286333587171633152235WETL
2025-12-02 03:00:04FORECAST20266614633.67429.28231.47820.6757535248922.3279540132.9979540134.367.357954013TT1.67445.67427306.667103684096.34057344996470.487699839742571623152230WETL
2025-12-01 23:00:01FORECAST20266614633.67430.9232.29723.4117440300662.3944894823.4544894824.357.804489482TT1.67445.67427308.683986005437.22683046653940.487699839742571623152230WETL
2025-12-01 19:00:02FORECAST20266614633.78230.77632.27923.8302467832222.4484265193.5184265194.337.848426519TT1.78244.78227308.991258414887.36333794188480.492371137908721623152230WETL
2025-12-01 15:00:03FORECAST20266614633.6230.86632.24323.5060979222462.4783477953.5583477954.297.848347795TT1.6247.6227308.753290888097.25758508943120.485364783241461623152230WETL
2025-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20266614634.19631.67632.93622.0948383673272.87401733.69401734.338.0240173TT2.19649.19627307.714955910266.79891221404640.510281867562391633152235WETL
2025-12-01 07:00:04FORECAST20266614634.23231.06432.64810.1644800275072.87401733.71401734.298.0040173TT2.23250.23227298.786855131353.03701302146430.511838862116721633153252.5WETH
2025-12-01 03:00:03FORECAST20266614635.52831.89233.7110.1017572155692.8472456323.7072456324.318.017245632TT3.52850.52827298.739197842633.01779084737990.567587398386841633153252.5WETH
2025-11-30 23:00:03FORECAST20266614635.20429.82232.51310.0974419609342.3511823722.9111823724.297.201182372TT3.20443.20427298.735918798863.01646860171760.553732152939481633153252.5WETH
2025-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20266614635.25829.01232.13510.1823873184912.3413398472.9013398474.357.251339847TT3.25841.25827298.800459839493.04250201302880.556046392400971633153252.5WETH
2025-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20266614635.20429.08432.14410.3011172633732.4519698282.8919698284.397.281969828TT3.20442.20427298.890646902443.07890760266740.553732152939481633153252.5WETH
2025-11-30 11:00:03FORECAST20266614634.95230.7432.84610.4625232345321.4582685042.4082685044.336.738268504TT2.95241.95227299.013206991033.12843262557570.542909414093991633153252.5WETH
2025-11-30 07:00:06FORECAST20266614634.41230.72232.56719.7580454825721.4582685042.4082685044.336.738268504TT2.41243.41227305.987454269086.04571403854470.519620654693791633152235WETL
2025-11-30 03:00:04FORECAST20266614634.17830.72232.4519.9587579572771.4673236272.3473236274.366.707323627TT2.17844.17827306.136236183836.11009903994490.509503310041211633152235WETL
2025-11-29 23:00:03FORECAST20266614635.9631.71233.83619.8772590816051.586615032.466615034.266.72661503TT3.9633.9627306.075832748556.0839486261610.58592970352841633152235WETL
2025-11-29 19:00:03FORECAST20266614635.4231.65833.53919.8874034101791.586615032.466615034.266.72661503TT3.4228.4227306.083351966686.0872030977010.562977343806621633152235WETL
2025-11-29 15:00:02FORECAST20266614635.65432.03633.84520.2647286932361.7531505532.6331505534.246.873150553TT3.65431.65427306.362896876766.20836098688140.572954147437261633152235WETL
2025-11-29 11:00:35FORECAST20266614636.03232.48634.25914.5784429540140.5724412541.0824412544.325.402441254TF4.03232.03227302.121623185514.4044628487840.58896974426361633143242WETM
2025-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20266614636.51832.48634.50210.0086511961030.5637798321.0637798324.285.343779832TF4.51840.51827298.668441150832.98926825076250.609341803711041633143242WETM
2025-11-29 03:00:06FORECAST20266614635.45632.6334.0439.447848850.4996065690.9596065694.255.209606569TF3.45636.45627298.241900641722.81774439799960.564515010986051633133231.5WETM
2025-11-28 23:00:03FORECAST20266614636.17634.0735.1236.42175773389030.3633860230.5633860234.44.963386023TF4.17634.17627295.929772714081.9003893066150.595033651580941633134242WETM
2025-11-28 19:00:02FORECAST20266614636.39232.46834.436.72983997103270.3633860230.5633860234.44.963386023TF4.39230.39227296.16598070671.99314965502010.604086463570111633134242WETM
2025-11-28 15:00:02FORECAST20266614636.28432.30634.2956.80942810044320.6551184640.9151184644.435.345118464TF4.28431.28427296.226971235042.01713626203710.599566742103871633134242WETM
2025-11-28 11:00:03FORECAST20266614638.67834.30436.4917.49608319299931.2661424161.6361424164.315.946142416TT6.67836.67827296.752661788882.22448264051340.69562854593111633154270WETH
2025-11-28 07:00:07FORECAST20266614640.20835.07837.6437.10031095420691.2850400641.6750400644.285.955040064TT8.20837.20827296.449777754682.10488560436380.751057351518071643154280WETH
2025-11-28 03:00:06FORECAST20266614639.79436.46438.1297.16624783236131.2822841571.8622841574.336.192284157TT7.79442.79427296.500260311062.12479434774870.73660512337961643154280WETH
2025-11-27 23:00:03FORECAST20266614636.44634.23235.3396.42603553208020.6523625571.5023625574.776.272362557TT4.44631.44627295.933053786191.90167631874710.606341129962811633154270WETH
2025-11-27 19:00:03FORECAST20266614636.44634.3435.3935.25210264105920.6523625571.4823625574.826.302362557TT4.44637.44627295.031308163871.54953471280260.606341129962811633144256WETH
2025-11-27 15:00:05FORECAST20266614637.07633.11635.0965.23109143564671.3263786692.1163786694.856.966378669TT5.07637.07627295.015144096361.54325119366850.632364102658291633154270WETH
2025-11-27 11:00:03FORECAST20266614633.27827.75230.5159.67069273441071.4275598261.5775598264.86.377559826TT1.27828.27827298.411466164292.88584559769990.470591040748631623153245WETL
2025-11-27 07:00:05FORECAST20266614633.27827.75230.5159.16985270628311.4275598261.5875598265.146.727559826TT1.27825.27827298.030234278642.73289335035420.470591040748631623153245WETL
2025-11-27 03:00:05FORECAST20266614633.4428.63431.03717.405456532041.2590557981.4190557985.016.429055798TT1.4423.4427304.237886554575.29539930982520.477585334118021623142224WETL
2025-11-26 23:00:02FORECAST20266614636.0531.22633.63816.1780594692661.4318905371.8418905374.986.821890537TT4.0534.0527303.320940327374.90714421088990.589728928033451633153252.5WETH
2025-11-26 19:00:03FORECAST20266614636.0531.22633.63816.445150911291.4318905371.8418905375.177.011890537TT4.0537.0527303.520718600124.99144402208220.589728928033451633153252.5WETH
2025-11-26 15:00:03FORECAST20266614636.12232.57634.34913.1143154816881.0437013511.4537013515.356.803701351TT4.12235.12227301.019609918033.94766613063960.592762275137311633143242WETH
2025-11-26 11:00:03FORECAST20266614635.627.37431.48710.5378120223060.0531496350.1631496354.935.093149635TF3.628.627299.070358699983.15154722142410.57065570484051633123221WETL
2025-11-26 07:00:10FORECAST20266614635.629.7532.6753.94461895474890.0637795620.3337795624.614.943779562TF3.634.627294.023806610091.15981188070160.57065570484051633124228WETM
2025-11-26 03:00:05FORECAST20266614638.01229.9333.9711.82335027596880.0456693160.2656693164.594.855669316TF6.01239.01227292.382096044870.533114975511760.669899458278861633124228WETM
2025-11-25 23:00:05FORECAST20266614635.11434.19634.6550004.464.46TF3.11434.11427290.9638664171200.549871055502441633115217.5WETM
2025-11-25 19:00:04FORECAST20266614635.11434.17834.6460004.664.66TF3.11433.11427290.9638664171200.549871055502441633115217.5WETM
2025-11-25 15:00:04FORECAST20266614634.28631.83833.06200.0763779940.3163779945.075.386377994TF2.28632.28627290.9638664171200.514174008264941633125235WETM
2025-11-25 11:00:03FORECAST20266614630.1129.19229.6511.86592481074380.0248031630.1848031634.74.884803163TF-1.8939.1127292.415132756430.545624651247150.33820541888961623124224WETL
2025-11-25 07:00:04FORECAST20266614635.00629.98432.49512.9768247340410.0248031630.1748031634.955.124803163TF3.00637.00627300.915913313033.9049330667470.545231532001011633123221WETM
2025-11-25 03:00:05FORECAST20266614633.49432.59433.04415.20309807306400.475.275.74TF1.49431.49427302.590540161724.60031365805980.47991840740521623123218WETM