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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 3, 2025

[ Tuesday, December 2, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, December 4, 2025 ]

DAY 64 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/04/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.98°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.35°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.362
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 68

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.54 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.34 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.88 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 11 in
SWE DAY: 29
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 301.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.21 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 144

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-12-04 07:00:03OBSERVATION20266414430.9799426.3499828.6649610.63646166666700.544.344.88TF-1.0200667.9799429301.4071571443 3.20590567302440.3617752813988516 23133227WETL
2025-12-04 03:00:04OBSERVATION20266414430.9799426.3499828.6649610.63646166666700.544.344.88TF-1.0200667.9799429301.4071571443 3.20590567302440.3617752813988516 23133227WETL
2025-12-03 11:00:01FORECAST20266414429.62421.81225.7181100.544.344.88TF-2.37666.62429301.680808527143.31848889379860.302965566994491623133227WETL
2025-12-03 07:00:06FORECAST20266414430.03822.02826.03311.17287791666700.544.344.88TF-1.96267.03829301.810852755213.37209581175910.320473840402591623133227WETL
2025-12-03 03:00:03FORECAST20266414430.25421.66825.96111.17287791666700.544.344.88TF-1.74667.25429301.810852755213.37209581175910.329772969946731623133227WETL
2025-12-02 23:00:02FORECAST20266414430.7423.55827.1491000.184.344.52TF-1.2662.7429300.927455427393.00927455427390.351077059976561623123218WETL
2025-12-02 19:00:01FORECAST20266414430.95623.59427.2751000.184.344.52TF-1.04462.95629300.927455427393.00927455427390.360702840593681623123218WETL
2025-12-02 15:00:02FORECAST20266414430.77623.66627.2211000.184.344.52TF-1.22462.77629300.927455427393.00927455427390.352674936722361623123218WETL
2025-12-02 11:00:03FORECAST20266414430.79423.7227.25710.09926561713800.184.344.52TF-1.20662.79429301.002323062433.03990241198310.35347485245581623123218WETL
2025-12-02 07:00:05FORECAST20266414430.5623.73827.14910.07045857484900.234.344.57TF-1.4463.5629300.980598298043.03101264699380.343127587784391623123218WETL
2025-12-02 03:00:04FORECAST20266414429.94823.25226.610.07624687825500.234.344.57TF-2.05262.94829300.984963661293.03279880049370.31663176958241623123218WETL
2025-12-01 23:00:01FORECAST20266414430.05623.55826.80710.7419916483600.224.344.56TF-1.94462.05629301.486620263.23856675692530.321244584261391623123218WETL
2025-12-01 19:00:02FORECAST20266414430.48823.73827.11310.68042601525100.24.344.54TF-1.51262.48829301.440264487063.21951044287170.339966887985691623123218WETL
2025-12-01 15:00:02FORECAST20266414430.66823.84627.25710.49750453104700.164.344.5TF-1.33262.66829301.302491192123.16292426650510.347889213735441623123218WETL
2025-12-01 11:00:02FORECAST20266414430.23623.77427.00510.56142373567100.24.344.54TF-1.76464.23629301.350641306533.18269181585440.328993911079061623123218WETL
2025-12-01 07:00:04FORECAST20266414430.52423.86427.19410.39227602750700.164.344.5TF-1.47664.52429301.22320589643.1303947015660.341545849789751623123218WETL
2025-12-01 03:00:02FORECAST20266414430.70423.91827.31110.41653881556900.184.344.52TF-1.29663.70429301.241488776723.13789366070240.34948181059421623123218WETL
2025-11-30 23:00:03FORECAST20266414431.26223.79227.52710.34846036093400.164.344.5TF-0.73857.26229301.190186366643.11685470471740.374490417926111623123218WETL
2025-11-30 19:00:02FORECAST20266414431.0123.66627.33810.36137691849100.224.344.56TF-0.9956.0129301.19992067923.12084590597670.363123417251521623123218WETL
2025-11-30 15:00:02FORECAST20266414431.08223.7227.40110.44340366337300.264.344.6TF-0.91857.08229301.261731087893.14619786607740.366359357436751623123218WETL
2025-11-30 11:00:03FORECAST20266414431.15423.70227.42810.59802003453200.24.344.54TF-0.84657.15429301.378205652153.19401226147290.36960482369521623123218WETL
2025-11-30 07:00:06FORECAST20266414431.58623.95427.7710.32376315630900.24.344.54TF-0.41459.58629301.171572909263.10922398812830.389265601354061623123218WETL
2025-11-30 03:00:04FORECAST20266414432.28823.928.09410.41555547700900.234.344.57TF0.28860.28829301.240747817783.13758972083180.421805786139641623123218WETL
2025-11-29 23:00:03FORECAST20266414432.21624.0828.14810.38426490716800.134.344.47TF0.21648.21629301.217168982693.12791887730350.418439586013431623123218WETL
2025-11-29 19:00:02FORECAST20266414431.65823.927.77910.46184772502500.134.344.47TF-0.34242.65829301.275627647263.15189973970680.392571676107741623123218WETL
2025-11-29 15:00:01FORECAST20266414432.8124.56628.68810.34204106304300.114.344.45TF0.8145.8129301.185348468753.11487124145090.446366783040141623123218WETL
2025-11-29 11:00:25FORECAST20266414432.75624.56628.66110.67193794316200.194.344.53TF0.75644.75629301.433872834283.21688358485420.443814756730781623123218WETL
2025-11-29 07:00:04FORECAST20266414432.8462327.92310.44731839610300.154.344.49TF0.84651.84629301.264680672463.14740804048550.448069375530591623123218WETL
2025-11-29 03:00:05FORECAST20266414432.95424.33228.6439.8754952500.124.344.46TF0.95448.95429300.833525365112.97088005078390.453182771555111623123218WETL
2025-11-28 23:00:02FORECAST20266414433.63824.20628.9227.067556933890300.244.374.61TF1.63843.63829298.707225203582.11113032069070.485713172419551623124224WETL
2025-11-28 19:00:02FORECAST20266414432.93621.3827.1587.216821571032700.214.44.61TF0.93641.93629298.820637311582.156535221220.452329976284531623124224WETL
2025-11-28 15:00:02FORECAST20266414432.52221.50627.0147.294933700443200.224.424.64TF0.52241.52229298.879970209162.18030956706630.432784207969321623124224WETL
2025-11-28 11:00:02FORECAST20266414431.94624.81828.3828.39231039299930.0350393890.1850393894.374.555039389TF-0.05399999999999843.94629299.71227924022.51527847597710.405871369849731623123218WETL
2025-11-28 07:00:07FORECAST20266414432.19824.58428.3918.18084135420690.0452756150.1952756154.344.535275615TF0.19844.19829299.552070241862.45058796397290.417598958168631623124224WETL
2025-11-28 03:00:05FORECAST20266414431.89225.5228.7068.24520383236130.059055150.219055154.384.59905515TF-0.10848.89229299.600840382032.47026999729660.403368884923951623124224WETL
2025-11-27 23:00:02FORECAST20266414430.30825.03427.6717.21815553208020.1460630710.4860630714.645.126063071TF-1.69241.30829298.821650668822.15694115088050.332114567098361623124224WETL
2025-11-27 19:00:02FORECAST20266414430.57825.64628.1126.11477544105920.137795350.477795354.695.16779535TF-1.42245.57829297.982282392951.82209474224720.343919490219771623124224WETL
2025-11-27 15:00:04FORECAST20266414431.24424.36827.8065.95019863564670.1409449580.5309449584.675.200944958TF-0.75646.24429297.856883055121.77230761917260.373674727835221623134236WETL
2025-11-27 11:00:02FORECAST20266414429.96620.80425.3859.23641687677120.0110236280.3210236284.75.021023628TF-2.03441.96629300.350917923882.77416628726590.317398621390811623123218WETL
2025-11-27 07:00:04FORECAST20266414429.17421.18225.1788.65488884864360.0212598540.3412598545.035.371259854TF-2.82642.17429299.911089019682.5956971399410.284436120414251623123218WETL
2025-11-27 03:00:05FORECAST20266414429.5722.33425.95213.9521031500690.0212598540.3512598544.895.241259854TF-2.4338.5729303.893654625584.23995561598760.300713737133241623123218WETL
2025-11-26 23:00:02FORECAST20266414432.03622.49627.2668.451351728963500.394.85.19TF0.03600000000000147.03629299.756993606882.53335178618840.410050688227731623123218WETL
2025-11-26 19:00:03FORECAST20266414430.1121.43425.7728.720433246993900.394.995.38TF-1.8950.1129299.960694910172.61578721668610.323561425047581623123218WETL
2025-11-26 15:00:02FORECAST20266414429.94822.11826.0339.016409685841700.455.115.56TF-2.05247.94829300.184595594452.70658729525830.31663176958241623123218WETL
2025-11-26 11:00:03FORECAST20266414429.64221.93825.7910.4758589316400.554.595.14TF-2.35843.64229301.286183865453.15623156022680.303717848910251623133227WETL
2025-11-26 07:00:09FORECAST20266414432.1824.24228.2114.181861354748900.54.324.82TF0.1848.1829296.506185273451.23994775763910.416758706660421623134236WETL
2025-11-26 03:00:04FORECAST20266414432.75624.6228.6882.204256675968800.414.394.8TF0.75648.75629294.988440502670.650230239311640.443814756730781623124224WETL
2025-11-25 23:00:05FORECAST20266414433.22424.63828.9310.05906932471770900.14.574.67TF1.22447.22429293.333438533110.0173270081312740.465998426943821623124224WETL
2025-11-25 19:00:03FORECAST20266414433.1724.828.9850.05995492471770900.14.774.87TF1.1746.1729293.334123631670.0175868252994720.463432042326041623124224WETL
2025-11-25 15:00:04FORECAST20266414433.0824.15228.6160.1911203055490700.115.175.28TF1.0846.0829293.435575918680.0560814969285460.459158166702911623124224WETL
2025-11-25 11:00:03FORECAST20266414432.46824.4428.4541.798851255452900.164.754.91TF0.46856.46829294.676362802480.530078945179520.430245794868261623124224WETL
2025-11-25 07:00:04FORECAST20266414431.74822.126.92412.36924995022600.1655.16TF-0.25246.74829302.709238312653.74428623093150.39671516682871623123218WETL
2025-11-25 03:00:05FORECAST20266414431.60422.4627.03214.15544684819800.385.15.48TF-0.39644.60429304.045467634384.30389945653410.390091379382631623123218WETL
2025-11-24 23:00:03FORECAST20266414428.61622.38825.50217.687576153130.0677165720.3277165725.736.057716572TF-3.38428.61629306.670024582715.42424941368880.262239504491071623122212WETL
2025-11-24 19:00:05FORECAST20266414428.61622.38825.50218.0430684996220.0677165720.3277165725.876.197716572TF-3.38429.61629306.932872165085.53801083726030.262239504491071623122212WETL
2025-11-24 15:00:02FORECAST20266414429.1219.8524.48516.16334699938800.115.85.91TF-2.8826.1229305.540330067674.93855437719130.282249440319791623123218WETL
2025-11-24 11:00:02FORECAST20266414435.00622.29828.65216.26045441545300.215.785.99TF3.00636.00629305.612432517134.96939702774030.550842353996011633123221WETL
2025-11-24 07:00:04FORECAST20266414435.02422.71228.86816.495062202900.175.916.08TF3.02436.02429305.786555897935.04396826034690.551694076886371633122214WETL
2025-11-24 03:00:07FORECAST20266414433.24222.53227.88717.53832241604600.275.96.17TF1.24237.24229306.559597060315.37654105297690.466854208106251623122212WETL
2025-11-23 23:00:06FORECAST20266414431.94629.76830.85717.53793205709900.165.795.95TF-0.05399999999999829.94629306.559308192745.37641631855540.405871369849731623122212WETL
2025-11-23 19:00:02FORECAST20266414431.94629.96630.95617.81298915003700.165.936.09TF-0.05399999999999830.94629306.76278082925.46436208654550.405871369849731623122212WETL
2025-11-23 15:00:03FORECAST20266414432.68429.9331.30717.3586616954190.0665354690.0665354696.066.126535469TF0.68430.68429306.426616956745.31915597822380.44041569382336162311226WETL
2025-11-23 11:00:02FORECAST20266414421.07418.5919.83215.06776101253600.034.924.95TF-10.9265.07429304.725621913174.59153284538420.061836934593022161311327.5WETL
2025-11-23 07:00:06FORECAST20266414421.07418.5919.8329.81239888695300.035.275.3TF-10.9265.07429300.785912261972.95143135069050.061836934593022161311327.5WETL
2025-11-23 03:00:04FORECAST20266414420.35420.33620.34514.53702579169900.036.116.14TF-11.6460.35429304.330136563134.42405504440960.051983502235593161311327.5WETL