MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 4, 2025

[ Monday, November 3, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 5, 2025 ]

DAY 35 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/05/2025 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.346
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 157

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.28 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.65 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.85 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 9 in
SWE DAY: 58
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 325.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 115

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-05 07:00:05OBSERVATION20263511537.7631.6700634.715030000.380.38FF5.76156.7658325.07250963822 00.346303472082816 25115220DRYL
2025-11-05 03:00:02OBSERVATION20263511537.7631.6700634.715030000.380.38FF5.76156.7658325.07250963822 00.346303472082816 25115220DRYL
2025-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20263511535.70828.54432.12600.488189240.488189240.380.86818924FF3.708154.70858325.0725096382200.273325164612521625125240DRYM
2025-11-04 07:00:03FORECAST20263511536.93228.70632.81900.3909450930.3909450930.380.770945093FF4.932155.93258325.0725096382200.3159577852251625125240DRYM
2025-11-04 03:00:03FORECAST20263511536.57229.35432.96300.3724411460.3724411460.380.752441146FF4.572155.57258325.0725096382200.303126282165411625125240DRYM
2025-11-03 23:00:01FORECAST20263511537.68829.62433.65600.476378211.706378210.382.08637821FF5.688151.68858325.0725096382200.3436216186012516251552100DRYVH
2025-11-03 19:00:01FORECAST20263511537.43630.66834.05200.5834648821.8134648820.382.193464882FF5.436151.43658325.0725096382200.3342976701499816251552100DRYVH
2025-11-03 15:00:01FORECAST20263511537.5830.70434.14200.6370082181.8670082180.382.247008218FF5.58151.5858325.0725096382200.3396135816739216251552100DRYVH
2025-11-03 11:00:02FORECAST20263511537.54430.68634.11500.5850396861.8150396860.382.195039686FF5.544151.54458325.0725096382200.3382815598874416251552100DRYVH
2025-11-03 07:00:02FORECAST20263511537.70630.41634.06100.5933074071.7433074070.382.123307407FF5.706152.70658325.0725096382200.3442913512941616251552100DRYVH
2025-11-03 03:00:04FORECAST20263511537.23830.6533.94400.47244121.62244120.382.0024412FF5.238151.23858325.0725096382200.3270423676811416251552100DRYVH
2025-11-02 23:00:02FORECAST20263511536.96830.2933.62900.6602365771.5902365770.381.970236577FF4.968148.96858325.0725096382200.3172535545260316251552100DRYVH
2025-11-02 19:00:02FORECAST20263511536.35629.98433.1700.6814964311.6314964310.382.011496431FF4.356148.35658325.0725096382200.2955409527405916251552100DRYVH
2025-11-02 15:00:02FORECAST20263511535.09630.32632.71100.7240161391.6840161390.382.064016139FF3.096147.09658325.0725096382200.2531313264985316251552100DRYVH
2025-11-02 11:00:01FORECAST20263511535.22230.8333.02600.9425201941.8725201940.382.252520194FF3.222147.22258325.0725096382200.2572238727274216251552100DRYVH
2025-11-02 07:00:04FORECAST20263511534.71830.07432.39600.925197351.775197350.382.15519735FF2.718146.71858325.0725096382200.241061879214851615155287.5DRYVH
2025-11-02 03:00:03FORECAST20263511535.7830.0232.900.8240161931.7340161930.382.114016193FF3.78149.7858325.0725096382200.2757522582104216251552100DRYVH
2025-11-02 00:00:03FORECAST20263511536.57229.62433.09800.8047248441.3547248443.384.734724844TF4.572149.57258325.0725096382200.303126282165411625145280WETM
2025-11-01 20:00:03FORECAST20263511536.93229.0332.98100.8925201671.4625201673.595.052520167TF4.932149.93258325.0725096382200.3159577852251625145280WETM
2025-11-01 16:00:01FORECAST20263511536.0528.6732.3600.8547248711.3847248713.594.974724871TF4.05148.0558325.0725096382200.284946973087271625145280WETM
2025-11-01 12:00:03FORECAST20263511536.06827.2331.64900.555118410.785118413.594.37511841TF4.068148.06858325.0725096382200.28556511034611625135260WETL
2025-11-01 08:00:03FORECAST20263511535.40227.64431.52300.5570869150.7070869153.664.367086915TF3.402147.40258325.0725096382200.263129398860851625135260WETL
2025-11-01 04:00:03FORECAST20263511535.85227.42831.6400.5543310080.6043310083.564.164331008TF3.852144.85258325.0725096382200.278189883990051625135260WETL
2025-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20263511536.89629.15633.02600.6110239521.0310239524.375.401023952TF4.896142.89658325.0725096382200.31466427135811625145280WETM
2025-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20263511537.07629.3933.23300.4952758580.9652758583.954.915275858TF5.076145.07658325.0725096382200.321154262352531625135260WETM
2025-10-31 16:00:02FORECAST20263511537.14829.46233.30500.5047246821.0047246823.834.834724682TF5.148146.14858325.0725096382200.323765766719711625145280WETM
2025-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20263511536.33830.45233.39500.3665356311.5665356313.645.206535631TF4.338146.33858325.0725096382200.2949127966281516251552100WETM
2025-10-31 08:00:01FORECAST20263511536.26630.63233.44900.3665356311.7265356313.595.316535631TF4.266147.26658325.0725096382200.2924063404360516251552100WETM
2025-10-31 04:00:03FORECAST20263511536.1429.49832.81900.3649608271.7249608273.595.314960827TF4.14147.1458325.0725096382200.2880440134603716251552100WETM
2025-10-31 00:00:02FORECAST20263511536.5931.133.84500.7299216541.6899216543.184.869921654TF4.59145.5958325.0725096382200.3037623018327516251552100WETM
2025-10-30 20:00:03FORECAST20263511535.74432.01833.88100.7133862121.6733862123.194.863386212TF3.744143.74458325.0725096382200.2745373897167716251552100WETM
2025-10-30 16:00:02FORECAST20263511535.85231.133.47600.5972444171.5172444173.224.737244417TF3.852139.85258325.0725096382200.2781898839900516251552100WETM
2025-10-30 12:00:02FORECAST20263511537.2232.16234.69100.9307091641.2907091642.974.260709164TF5.22143.2258325.0725096382200.326385970373021625145280WETM
2025-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20263511538.9332.84635.88800.9307091641.2807091643.014.290709164TF6.93149.9358325.0725096382200.390877537348611625145280WETM
2025-10-30 04:00:06FORECAST20263511538.5731.92835.24900.9484257091.3484257093.164.508425709TF6.57148.5758325.0725096382200.376977590361251625145280WETM
2025-10-30 00:00:02FORECAST20263511538.15632.9935.57300.7275594481.1875594484.215.397559448TF6.156150.15658325.0725096382200.361188477827981625145280WETM
2025-10-29 20:00:01FORECAST20263511537.70633.94435.82500.7303153551.1903153553.975.160315355TF5.706144.70658325.0725096382200.344291351294161625145280WETM
2025-10-29 16:00:02FORECAST20263511536.84232.57634.70900.6937011621.13370116245.133701162TF4.842143.84258325.0725096382200.312728258226241625145280WETM
2025-10-29 12:00:02FORECAST20263511537.05830.36233.7100.4795278180.6695278183.94.569527818TF5.058140.05858325.0725096382200.320502758298371625135260WETM
2025-10-29 08:00:03FORECAST20263511539.39829.42634.41200.4795278180.6695278184.114.779527818TF7.398146.39858325.0725096382200.409155390760161625135260WETM
2025-10-29 04:00:04FORECAST20263511539.32630.18234.75400.3728348470.5628348474.064.622834847TF7.326149.32658325.0725096382200.406329443495091625135260WETM
2025-10-29 00:00:03FORECAST20263511539.41629.71434.56500.3996065150.7796065154.315.089606515TF7.416143.41658325.0725096382200.40986262193141625135260WETM
2025-10-28 20:00:05FORECAST20263511539.41629.62434.5200.3996065150.7796065154.214.989606515TF7.416145.41658325.0725096382200.40986262193141625135260WETM
2025-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20263511539.57830.03834.80800.582677480.972677484.465.43267748TF7.578145.57858325.0725096382200.416240634304071625135260WETM
2025-10-28 12:00:02FORECAST20263511540.96433.45837.21100.9476383071.2076383074.75.907638307TF8.964148.96458325.0725096382200.47154078688631625145280WETM
2025-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20263511542.54835.65439.10100.9476383071.2076383074.565.767638307TF10.548154.54858325.0725096382200.535357023551571635145290WETM
2025-10-28 04:00:06FORECAST20263511539.30834.23236.7700.818898081.158898084.515.66889808TF7.308152.30858325.0725096382200.405623712088031625145280WETM
2025-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20263511541.05433.54837.30101.1082683151.5882683154.496.078268315TT9.054154.05458325.0725096382200.4751626067484316251552100WETH
2025-10-27 20:00:03FORECAST20263511541.05433.63837.34601.1082683151.5782683154.546.118268315TT9.054154.05458325.0725096382200.4751626067484316251552100WETH
2025-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20263511543.01636.39239.70401.279528251.819528254.56.31952825TT11.016157.01658325.0725096382200.5541120938023916351552112.5WETH
2025-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20263511542.09836.9539.52400.8692918080.9692918084.445.409291808TF10.098155.09858325.0725096382200.517248392256481635135267.5WETM
2025-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20263511541.57636.6839.12800.7547248170.8447248174.395.234724817TF9.576161.57658325.0725096382200.496200212072411625135260WETM
2025-10-27 04:00:04FORECAST20263511542.20636.3239.26300.5830711810.6230711814.294.913071181TF10.206160.20658325.0725096382200.521599126929471635135267.5WETM
2025-10-27 00:00:02FORECAST20263511546.86839.90243.38500.6940948630.7840948635.125.904094863TF14.868158.86858325.0725096382200.700381318818481645135275WETMH
2025-10-26 20:00:02FORECAST20263511546.86839.90243.38500.6940948630.7840948635.226.004094863TF14.868161.86858325.0725096382200.700381318818481645135275WETMH
2025-10-26 16:00:03FORECAST20263511547.06640.06443.56500.6940948630.8740948634.915.784094863TF15.066161.06658325.0725096382200.707300862565921645135275WETMH
2025-10-26 12:00:03FORECAST20263511546.7638.19242.47601.972442012.282442013.846.12244201TT14.76167.7658325.0725096382200.6965760805749516351552112.5WETH
2025-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20263511546.7638.19242.47601.972442012.282442013.575.85244201TT14.76167.7658325.0725096382200.6965760805749516351552112.5WETH
2025-10-26 04:00:05FORECAST20263511551.9839.88445.93200.3590553120.36905531244.369055312TF19.98177.9858325.0725096382200.85141082072771655125255WETMH
2025-10-26 00:00:03FORECAST20263511532.88228.70630.794000.435.435.86TF0.882143.88258325.0725096382200.187116856637511615125235WETL
2025-10-25 20:00:04FORECAST20263511532.88228.70630.794000.435.936.36TF0.882146.88258325.0725096382200.187116856637511615125235WETL
2025-10-25 16:00:03FORECAST20263511534.73630.23632.486000.725.816.53TT2.736150.73658325.0725096382200.241629441465221615135252.5WETH
2025-10-25 12:00:03FORECAST20263511541.97240.2841.12600.2740158961.6440158966.217.854015896TT9.972164.97258325.0725096382200.5121699742826416351552112.5WETH
2025-10-25 08:00:05FORECAST20263511541.97240.2841.12600.2740158961.6440158966.488.124015896TT9.972166.97258325.0725096382200.5121699742826416351552112.5WETH
2025-10-25 04:00:06FORECAST20263511525.48425.19625.34001.645.957.59TT-6.516141.48458325.0725096382200.0507301506181241615155287.5WETL