MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 3, 2025

[ Sunday, November 2, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 4, 2025 ]

DAY 34 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/04/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.37°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.29°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.234
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 158

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.69 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.70 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.51 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.57 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 8 in
SWE DAY: 59
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 326.11 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 114

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-04 07:00:02OBSERVATION20263411435.2000427.3700431.285040000.380.38FF3.20004158.2000459326.10728677984 00.2342691269513216 15115217.5DRYL
2025-11-04 03:00:02OBSERVATION20263411435.2000427.3700431.285040000.380.38FF3.20004158.2000459326.10728677984 00.2342691269513216 15115217.5DRYL
2025-11-03 11:00:01FORECAST20263411430.4726.29428.38201.2259849141.2259849140.381.605984914FF-1.53153.4759326.1072867798400.10573495184471615145270DRYH
2025-11-03 07:00:02FORECAST20263411430.81226.61828.71501.1452762091.1452762090.381.525276209FF-1.188153.81259326.1072867798400.112838461919341615145270DRYH
2025-11-03 03:00:04FORECAST20263411430.45226.79828.62501.1515754251.1515754250.381.531575425FF-1.548153.45259326.1072867798400.105370218397741615145270DRYH
2025-11-02 23:00:02FORECAST20263411430.70426.5128.60700.8732288180.9332288180.381.313228818FF-1.296150.70459326.1072867798400.110559480833991615135252.5DRYMH
2025-11-02 19:00:01FORECAST20263411430.70426.76228.73300.8933075690.9533075690.381.333307569FF-1.296150.70459326.1072867798400.110559480833991615135252.5DRYMH
2025-11-02 15:00:02FORECAST20263411430.66826.94228.80500.8980319810.9580319810.381.338031981FF-1.332150.66859326.1072867798400.109807179286151615135252.5DRYMH
2025-11-02 11:00:01FORECAST20263411430.95626.79828.87700.8665359010.9265359010.381.306535901FF-1.044150.95659326.1072867798400.115928827134881615135252.5DRYMH
2025-11-02 07:00:03FORECAST20263411431.06426.83428.94900.8043311430.8543311430.381.234331143FF-0.936151.06459326.1072867798400.118285584008861615135252.5DRYMH
2025-11-02 03:00:03FORECAST20263411432.59428.00430.29900.7858271960.9058271960.381.285827196FF0.594152.59459326.1072867798400.155328932834421615135252.5DRYMH
2025-11-02 00:00:03FORECAST20263411433.49427.75230.62300.4460632333.5460632330.383.926063233TF1.494152.49459326.1072867798400.180352365116491615155287.5DRYVH
2025-11-01 20:00:03FORECAST20263411433.81827.89630.85700.4066931333.7766931330.384.156693133TF1.818151.81859326.1072867798400.189946482430191615155287.5WETL
2025-11-01 16:00:01FORECAST20263411431.80227.42829.61500.3677167343.7377167340.384.117716734TF-0.198150.80259326.1072867798400.135294781295891615155287.5WETL
2025-11-01 12:00:03FORECAST20263411432.0927.37429.73200.1078740743.4378740740.383.817874074TF0.090000000000003151.0959326.1072867798400.142365266791851615155287.5DRYVH
2025-11-01 08:00:03FORECAST20263411433.1727.26630.21800.047244123.427244120.383.80724412TF1.17151.1759326.1072867798400.171067470727721615155287.5DRYVH
2025-11-01 04:00:03FORECAST20263411430.7426.04228.391003.230.383.61TF-1.26147.7459326.1072867798400.111315457912891615155287.5DRYVH
2025-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20263411431.15427.08629.1200.3618112193.5218112191.274.791811219TF-0.846145.15459326.1072867798400.120275184635931615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 20:00:01FORECAST20263411432.1827.80629.99300.4074805353.0174805351.44.417480535TF0.18147.1859326.1072867798400.144625015458891615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 16:00:02FORECAST20263411432.57628.18430.3800.4188978642.9288978641.44.328897864TF0.576147.57659326.1072867798400.154852972435911615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20263411433.87228.27431.07301.1543313323.4443313321.44.844331332TF1.872148.87259326.1072867798400.191575406408741615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 08:00:01FORECAST20263411433.74628.32831.03701.3122054333.6722054331.284.952205433TT1.746149.74659326.1072867798400.18778784498191615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 04:00:03FORECAST20263411432.93628.07630.50601.3090558253.7790558251.174.949055825TT0.936149.93659326.1072867798400.164554951986231615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 00:00:02FORECAST20263411433.81828.95831.38800.9625989453.0825989451.064.142598945TF1.818147.81859326.1072867798400.189946482430191615155287.5WETL
2025-10-30 20:00:03FORECAST20263411434.10629.4831.79300.9570871313.0670871311.084.147087131TF2.106147.10659326.1072867798400.198732224627081615155287.5WETL
2025-10-30 16:00:02FORECAST20263411432.75628.90430.8300.9248036492.9848036491.164.144803649TF0.756142.75659326.1072867798400.159655864846241615155287.5WETL
2025-10-30 12:00:02FORECAST20263411434.30429.31831.81100.3527560962.2127560961.123.332756096TF2.304145.30459326.1072867798400.204911864502161615155287.5DRYVH
2025-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20263411434.28629.0331.65800.3527560962.2927560961.073.362756096TF2.286150.28659326.1072867798400.204345411734171615155287.5DRYVH
2025-10-30 04:00:06FORECAST20263411434.9728.92231.94600.3952758042.2452758041.313.555275804TF2.97148.9759326.1072867798400.226518114627661615155287.5DRYVH
2025-10-30 00:00:01FORECAST20263411436.75229.40833.0800.4598427682.5898427682.084.669842768TF4.752150.75259326.1072867798400.2901937119827516251552100WETM
2025-10-29 20:00:01FORECAST20263411436.44629.89433.1700.4610238712.4010238712.034.431023871TF4.446146.44659326.1072867798400.2786897560696516251552100WETM
2025-10-29 16:00:02FORECAST20263411435.8729.67832.77400.4362207082.3062207082.134.436220708TF3.87145.8759326.1072867798400.2576560168320316251552100WETM
2025-10-29 12:00:02FORECAST20263411433.36827.96830.668002.082.014.09TF1.368142.36859326.1072867798400.176704722698621615155287.5WETL
2025-10-29 08:00:03FORECAST20263411435.70827.531.604002.272.034.3TF3.708145.70859326.1072867798400.2518921657700216251552100WETL
2025-10-29 04:00:04FORECAST20263411436.2327.82432.027002.261.994.25TF4.23149.2359326.1072867798400.2707051309953516251552100WETM
2025-10-29 00:00:02FORECAST20263411436.62626.65431.6400.2492127332.1892127332.54.689212733TF4.626142.62659326.1072867798400.2854299255468216251552100WETL
2025-10-28 20:00:05FORECAST20263411436.1426.65431.39700.2492127332.1992127332.394.589212733TF4.14145.1459326.1072867798400.2674122049340516251552100WETL
2025-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20263411434.8826.27630.57800.2456694242.2456694242.64.845669424TF2.88144.8859326.1072867798400.223525431482351615155287.5WETL
2025-10-28 12:00:02FORECAST20263411436.71627.93232.32400.031496082.491496082.474.96149608TF4.716146.71659326.1072867798400.2888288382741216251552100WETM
2025-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20263411438.1228.29233.20600.031496082.491496082.334.82149608TF6.12151.1259326.1072867798400.3441415173104516251552100WETM
2025-10-28 04:00:05FORECAST20263411437.8528.4933.1700.031496082.461496082.394.85149608TF5.85151.8559326.1072867798400.3331930802075616251552100WETM
2025-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20263411441.68430.79436.23900.4629923762.5629923762.414.972992376TF9.684151.68459326.1072867798400.4975422527915716251552100WETM
2025-10-27 20:00:03FORECAST20263411441.97229.87635.92400.4629923762.5429923762.475.012992376TF9.972151.97259326.1072867798400.5102757755219916351552112.5WETM
2025-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20263411443.08829.51636.30200.5255908352.5955908352.445.035590835TF11.088153.08859326.1072867798400.5594025578903416351552112.5WETM
2025-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20263411443.66430.70437.18400.0173228441.9673228442.574.537322844TF11.664151.66459326.1072867798400.5844523125266416351552112.5WETM
2025-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20263411444.72631.74838.23700.0153543391.9353543392.544.475354339TF12.726158.72659326.1072867798400.629680260948816351552112.5WETM
2025-10-27 04:00:04FORECAST20263411444.7833.15238.96600.0397638011.7397638012.594.329763801TF12.78156.7859326.1072867798400.6319384986532316351552112.5WETM
2025-10-27 00:00:02FORECAST20263411445.60832.73839.17300.0913386321.5213386323.695.211338632TF13.608150.60859326.1072867798400.6659535797760516351552112.5WETM
2025-10-26 20:00:02FORECAST20263411445.60831.11838.36300.0913386321.5213386323.795.311338632TF13.608153.60859326.1072867798400.6659535797760516351552112.5WETM
2025-10-26 16:00:03FORECAST20263411445.39230.4737.93100.1677166261.2877166263.85.087716626TF13.392153.39259326.1072867798400.657197089633661635145290WETM
2025-10-26 12:00:03FORECAST20263411446.23834.19640.21700.1039370641.0139370643.144.153937064TF14.238160.23859326.1072867798400.690968453188651635145290WETMH
2025-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20263411446.23834.19640.21700.1039370641.0139370642.873.883937064TF14.238160.23859326.1072867798400.690968453188651635145290DRYVH
2025-10-26 04:00:05FORECAST20263411447.71435.0641.38700.0122047310.8022047313.214.012204731TF15.714164.71459326.1072867798400.746081672511841645135275WETMH
2025-10-26 00:00:02FORECAST20263411437.77827.30232.5400.2354331981.6454331984.215.855433198TF5.778149.77859326.1072867798400.3302968568601316251552100WETM
2025-10-25 20:00:04FORECAST20263411437.77827.30232.5400.2354331981.6454331984.716.355433198TT5.778152.77859326.1072867798400.3302968568601316251552100WETH
2025-10-25 16:00:03FORECAST20263411438.96629.98434.47500.4913388481.8513388484.686.531338848TT6.966154.96659326.1072867798400.3792631622233216251552100WETH
2025-10-25 12:00:03FORECAST20263411446.8530.41638.63300.1570866992.8370866994.747.577086699TT14.85161.8559326.1072867798400.7144508066745916451552125WETH
2025-10-25 08:00:05FORECAST20263411446.8530.41638.63300.1570866992.8370866995.017.847086699TT14.85163.8559326.1072867798400.7144508066745916451552125WETH
2025-10-25 04:00:05FORECAST20263411435.31225.7930.55100.137795353.137795354.457.58779535TT3.312155.31259326.1072867798400.238093909811281615155287.5WETL
2025-10-25 00:00:03FORECAST20263411445.60838.0341.81900.0110236280.9810236286.997.971023628TT13.608149.60859326.1072867798400.665953579776051635135267.5WETH
2025-10-24 20:00:06FORECAST20263411445.60838.0341.81900.0110236280.9810236287.468.441023628TT13.608153.60859326.1072867798400.665953579776051635135267.5WETH
2025-10-24 16:00:03FORECAST20263411443.23237.29240.262000.977.368.33TT11.232150.23259326.1072867798400.565691411205441635135267.5WETH
2025-10-24 12:00:02FORECAST20263411444.90641.50443.20500.4188978642.18889786410.112.288897864TT12.906145.90659326.1072867798400.637189908824816351552112.5WETH
2025-10-24 08:00:02FORECAST20263411444.90641.50443.20500.4188978642.1888978649.7211.908897864TT12.906146.90659326.1072867798400.637189908824816351552112.5WETH
2025-10-24 04:00:05FORECAST20263411437.74237.74237.742001.249.6110.85TT5.742137.74259326.1072867798400.328852532484741625145280WETH