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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 27, 2025

[ Wednesday, November 26, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, November 28, 2025 ]

DAY 58 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/28/2025 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.99°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.28°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.626
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 127

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.14 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.73 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.08 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 7 in
SWE DAY: 35
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 305.39 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.13 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 138

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 80.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-28 07:00:05OBSERVATION20265813838.5731.9899235.279966.98489416666671.142.734.086.81TT6.57126.5735305.39023204572 2.13311845037310.626201033046316 34154280WETH
2025-11-28 03:00:03OBSERVATION20265813838.5731.9899235.279966.98489416666671.142.734.086.81TT6.57126.5735305.39023204572 2.13311845037310.626201033046316 34154280WETH
2025-11-27 11:00:01FORECAST20265813833.87229.53431.7038.35175294611781.444882673.034882674.087.11488267TT1.872121.87235306.404012837332.55901061691640.4319229161261624153252.5WETL
2025-11-27 07:00:03FORECAST20265813835.1529.46232.3068.25158617257931.6531504993.2431504994.087.323150499TT3.15123.1535306.329839942222.52770707151570.485126448250841624153252.5WETH
2025-11-27 03:00:04FORECAST20265813834.7929.51632.15311.0376145135631.555118953.145118954.087.22511895TT2.79122.7935308.385856382243.40384420418220.470071164368511624153252.5WETH
2025-11-26 23:00:01FORECAST20265813834.68229.80432.2436.78580321775791.5425205183.1225205184.087.202520518TT2.682120.68235305.242275078562.07131401242380.465561928016291624154270WETH
2025-11-26 19:00:02FORECAST20265813834.91630.43432.6757.46343296366191.7763789123.3563789124.087.436378912TT2.916120.91635305.745558326522.28191147850740.475336754500681624154270WETH
2025-11-26 15:00:01FORECAST20265813834.91630.77632.8467.89634769126471.9354341163.5154341164.087.595434116TT2.916120.91635306.0666357852.4168085728540.475336754500681624154270WETH
2025-11-26 11:00:02FORECAST20265813834.75430.57832.6666.91919876508561.4586622053.0386622054.087.118662205TT2.754120.75435305.341417944572.11271796197150.46856763030051624154270WETH
2025-11-26 07:00:05FORECAST20265813834.50230.00232.2522.45187129370511.1881896182.8581896184.086.938189618TT2.502120.50235302.002846686050.740472110406740.458056633929461624154270WETH
2025-11-26 03:00:03FORECAST20265813834.26829.64231.9552.16665806666671.1500006212.9700006214.087.050000621TT2.268120.26835301.788408815370.653872290386330.448322459870321624154270WETL
2025-11-25 23:00:03FORECAST20265813834.17829.89432.03601.0732289263.1532289264.087.233228926TT2.178119.17835300.1543221738100.44458649050741624155287.5WETH
2025-11-25 19:00:02FORECAST20265813834.730.52432.61201.1744100833.4244100834.087.504410083TT2.7118.735300.1543221738100.466313176189531624155287.5WETH
2025-11-25 15:00:02FORECAST20265813835.0630.34432.7020.171011270929981.3342526893.7342526894.087.814252689TT3.06119.0635300.283625470740.0513518844312130.481359797092641624154270WETH
2025-11-25 11:00:02FORECAST20265813834.12430.48832.3062.21599181908381.3338589883.5038589884.087.583858988TT2.124119.12435301.825511562350.668842864412940.4423472477161624154270WETH
2025-11-25 07:00:03FORECAST20265813834.0730.59632.33311.7499858659311.3094495263.7294495264.087.809449526TT2.07119.0735308.909236349843.6296791609660.440109845265881624153252.5WETH
2025-11-25 03:00:04FORECAST20265813834.44831.0132.72912.1601064985381.2854337653.8454337654.087.925433765TT2.448119.44835309.210123134793.7600280277450.455807835675381624153252.5WETH
2025-11-24 23:00:02FORECAST20265813833.5330.6532.0914.6228667159531.7031505264.3431505264.058.393150526TT1.53115.5335311.010360469874.54786304843130.417852417673271624153252.5WETH
2025-11-24 19:00:03FORECAST20265813833.13430.5631.84715.0602614224461.5677173824.4777173824.058.527717382TT1.134115.13435311.328912868614.68869481616720.40169178181361624153252.5WETL
2025-11-24 15:00:02FORECAST20265813832.930.23631.56815.3029306680531.5125992424.5525992424.058.602599242TT0.9114.935311.505495095554.76694699416460.392218855033711624153252.5WETL
2025-11-24 11:00:01FORECAST20265813833.42229.96631.69415.0535154860211.2964573934.4864573934.058.536457393TT1.422115.42235311.324002523094.68652069315130.413429968246311624153252.5WETL
2025-11-24 07:00:03FORECAST20265813833.2629.80431.53215.6181473966851.287402274.617402274.078.68740227TT1.26116.2635311.734705225594.86871857487560.40681700081371624153252.5WETL
2025-11-24 03:00:06FORECAST20265813833.00829.85831.43315.7727191468891.2614180044.5614180044.068.621418004TT1.008117.00835311.847035172074.91867570255920.396583412719551624153252.5WETL
2025-11-23 23:00:04FORECAST20265813834.0729.1231.59515.1585616632031.1712604754.0512604754.218.261260475TT2.07115.0735311.400455754154.72038301049890.440109845265881624153252.5WETL
2025-11-23 19:00:02FORECAST20265813834.82628.83231.82915.4570311024091.2196856984.1796856984.228.399685698TT2.826115.82635311.617572294474.81668250701270.471575125254781624153252.5WETL
2025-11-23 15:00:02FORECAST20265813835.09629.87632.48615.657688496781.2574809944.2674809944.218.477480994TT3.096115.09635311.763444620394.88149490054930.482866276748291624153252.5WETH
2025-11-23 11:00:01FORECAST20265813835.67231.51433.59313.5869441858040.7263783453.3763783454.167.536378345TT3.672114.67235310.254490045714.21541043964620.506988593270891634153260WETH
2025-11-23 07:00:05FORECAST20265813836.28431.9134.0978.36294277633950.7263783453.6063783454.287.886378345TT4.284114.28435306.412297667732.56250851136190.532588564299281634153260WETH
2025-11-23 03:00:03FORECAST20265813835.65430.88433.2699.51774932162620.8870083533.8770083534.248.117008353TT3.654113.65435307.266039197182.92448113612770.506234698662991634153260WETH
2025-11-22 23:00:02FORECAST20265813833.40429.08431.24418.5717930020441.0952761823.9052761824.38.205276182TT1.404106.40435313.873558475175.82919475681580.412693943696921624152235WETL
2025-11-22 19:00:02FORECAST20265813834.0729.91231.99117.4618246109131.1007879963.7807879964.147.920787996TT2.07109.0735313.071667266755.4668025444580.440109845265881624152235WETL
2025-11-22 15:00:03FORECAST20265813834.41230.4732.44116.6942329114991.1039376043.7039376044.037.733937604TT2.412109.41235312.515800626515.21721156418260.454309418444041624152235WETL
2025-11-22 11:00:02FORECAST20265813836.64433.6235.13217.3757465844261.5015756145.5715756144.119.681575614TT4.644113.64435313.009386108125.43877177156150.547591414141831634152240WETL
2025-11-22 07:00:04FORECAST20265813837.63434.03435.83412.4176054367381.5015756145.6815756144.249.921575614TT5.634115.63435309.398878236063.84199319250480.588437737049481634153260WETH
2025-11-22 03:00:05FORECAST20265813837.09434.17835.63611.4342319487871.2523628815.2623628814.429.682362881TT5.094116.09435308.677368468793.52948862841330.566247386778081634153260WETH
2025-11-21 23:00:02FORECAST20265813834.84432.7233.78215.4941553936391.7629930784.5729930784.549.112993078TT2.844111.84435311.644566223594.82866933665160.472327259076551624153252.5WETH
2025-11-21 19:00:02FORECAST20265813834.93432.55833.74616.3622608338991.8354340624.6154340624.59.115434062TT2.934109.93435312.275060596325.10952599339850.476089355011921624152235WETL
2025-11-21 15:00:02FORECAST20265813835.5133.02634.26817.1811425882031.9141742624.7941742624.599.384174262TT3.51113.5135312.868531535245.37543885166880.500202966306761634152240WETL
2025-11-21 11:00:02FORECAST20265813834.68232.50433.59318.6426430082141.1566935385.2066935384.529.726693538TT2.682112.68235313.924666995165.85238549826310.465561928016291624152235WETL
2025-11-21 07:00:04FORECAST20265813833.54830.5632.05425.0968811929891.1196856445.1896856444.629.809685644TT1.548112.54835318.542139573257.99441423183040.418590519486841624152235WETL
2025-11-21 03:00:04FORECAST20265813833.90830.6532.27927.3658729013091.1594494455.3394494454.589.919449445TT1.908111.90835320.147515147378.76111620919270.43340938242381624152235WETL
2025-11-20 23:00:02FORECAST20265813834.4328.83231.63113.5261601176850.9452761013.1952761014.47.595276101TT2.43106.4335310.210076586024.19595116602190.455058547136951624153252.5WETL
2025-11-20 19:00:04FORECAST20265813834.19629.87632.03613.2458472793380.9452761013.1952761014.447.635276101TT2.196105.19635310.005169973834.10628113727840.44533330155291624153252.5WETH
2025-11-20 15:00:05FORECAST20265813834.0729.8431.95513.2953228395370.8826776423.0426776424.437.472677642TT2.07104.0735310.041346845954.12209979992160.440109845265881624153252.5WETL
2025-11-20 11:00:04FORECAST20265813833.13429.98431.55912.5321773614360.720472833.160472834.427.58047283TT1.134105.13435309.482823508043.87849363452090.40169178181361624153252.5WETL
2025-11-20 07:00:06FORECAST20265813832.07229.10230.58714.5950954934820.7350397673.1650397674.457.615039767TT0.072000000000003101.07235310.990122875064.53893054089110.359243685661571624153252.5WETL
2025-11-20 03:00:05FORECAST20265813831.58627.60829.59715.0930165692720.7110240063.0410240064.457.491024006TT-0.414100.58635311.352754039034.69925227559960.340348570041611624153252.5WETL
2025-11-19 23:00:09FORECAST20265813833.74626.45630.1016.21772728028340.4547246550.4547246554.85.254724655TF1.74697.74635304.819690674571.89528570627480.426728003441871624124228WETL
2025-11-19 19:00:03FORECAST20265813833.74626.49230.1195.96997334472080.4547246550.4547246554.765.214724655TF1.74698.74635304.635198658521.81866401585510.426728003441871624124228WETL
2025-11-19 15:00:03FORECAST20265813833.96227.75230.85710.1560755344230.4992128680.8492128684.885.729212868TF1.962100.96235307.736876358253.12539896102160.435640842560561624133231.5WETL
2025-11-19 11:00:02FORECAST20265813833.09828.1330.6144.13208096888840.1031496620.1331496624.594.723149662TF1.09894.09835303.262965767861.2531071294180.400230491722381624124228WETL
2025-11-19 07:00:05FORECAST20265813832.91827.98630.4525.76190480129550.153543390.183543394.684.86354339TF0.91897.91835304.480168978661.75438574753740.392945356855651624124228WETL
2025-11-19 03:00:09FORECAST20265813832.95427.62630.295.65288578517260.1090551770.1390551774.654.789055177TF0.954100.95435304.39890734131.72073225633170.394399477074811624124228WETL
2025-11-18 23:00:02FORECAST20265813828.3124.02626.1687.24180343475220.2889765340.4189765344.124.538976534TF-3.6993.3135305.581046895672.21295787500430.224965058178411614124224WETL
2025-11-18 19:00:04FORECAST20265813828.3124.02626.1687.51816648648560.2889765340.4189765344.194.608976534TF-3.6995.3135305.786171733532.29895134835780.224965058178411614124224WETL
2025-11-18 15:00:02FORECAST20265813828.92224.74626.8348.0421680815810.2897639360.4197639364.34.719763936TF-3.07893.92235306.174706117912.46230844892890.244702085642551614124224WETL
2025-11-18 11:00:02FORECAST20265813831.71226.20428.95816.2821400814060.968504460.968504466.147.10850446TT-0.288104.71235312.216928089255.08355975893540.345211266032521624132221WETL
2025-11-18 07:00:06FORECAST20265813831.71226.20428.95810.9775155585120.968504460.968504466.117.07850446TT-0.288109.71235308.341658285223.38482535116330.345211266032521624133231.5WETL
2025-11-18 03:00:06FORECAST20265813832.12625.3428.73312.0241109831720.913386320.913386326.177.08338632TT0.126105.12635309.110384166833.7167775652730.361365572776681624133231.5WETL
2025-11-17 23:00:04FORECAST20265813818.30217.25817.789.614758568034100.35.335.63TF-13.69879.30235307.337643596092.95497724204490.0352719492736281614123218WETL
2025-11-17 19:00:04FORECAST20265813818.30217.25817.789.320105367498900.35.25.5TF-13.69884.30235307.120099773462.86239169036540.0352719492736281614123218WETL
2025-11-17 15:00:03FORECAST20265813825.75420.51623.13514.5057499587660.3574805080.8274805085.216.037480508TF-6.246100.75435310.925004830844.51020037600440.152906268362411614133227WETL
2025-11-17 11:00:03FORECAST20265813834.57426.27630.4258.31735757355480.224409570.974409575.86.77440957TT2.574125.57435306.378545397652.54825991493780.461057108931921624133231.5WETL
2025-11-17 07:00:05FORECAST20265813834.57426.27630.42513.9129855829230.224409570.974409575.816.78440957TT2.574123.57435310.492603669394.31987911845650.461057108931921624133231.5WETL
2025-11-17 03:00:04FORECAST20265813820.1220.10220.11114.00330823144600.715.876.58TT-11.8892.1235310.558532975364.34884686115980.0529637799116561614133227WETL