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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 26, 2025

[ Tuesday, November 25, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, November 27, 2025 ]

DAY 57 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/27/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.84°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.15°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.676
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 146

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.24 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.62 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.67 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 6 in
SWE DAY: 36
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 306.08 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.97 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 137

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 80.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-27 07:00:03OBSERVATION20265713738.4699231.8399835.154956.422231250.241.624.055.67TF6.46992146.4699236306.08290336044 1.96573518705210.6762194999194516 34154280WETM
2025-11-27 03:00:03OBSERVATION20265713738.4699231.8399835.154956.422231250.241.624.055.67TF6.46992146.4699236306.08290336044 1.96573518705210.6762194999194516 34154280WETM
2025-11-26 11:00:02FORECAST20265713736.08629.04832.5672.46600161422170.2330709921.6130709924.055.663070992TF4.086144.08636303.135701774150.747533129903280.576792132478321634154280WETM
2025-11-26 07:00:05FORECAST20265713736.08628.70632.3962.53895529370510.3216537171.7016537174.055.751653717TF4.086144.08636303.190317229750.76978666093060.576792132478321634154280WETM
2025-11-26 03:00:03FORECAST20265713735.56428.95832.2612.23721086666670.4716537981.8516537984.055.901653798TT3.564143.56436302.964356057910.677795149585420.554091535662671634154280WETH
2025-11-25 23:00:02FORECAST20265713735.76229.28232.52200.3826773722.1126773724.056.162677372TT3.762142.76236301.2836087461500.5627271668611316341552100WETH
2025-11-25 19:00:01FORECAST20265713735.45630.05632.75600.55118142.28118144.056.3311814TT3.456142.45636301.2836087461500.5493700844264716341552100WETH
2025-11-25 15:00:01FORECAST20265713735.40230.52432.96300.696850772.426850774.056.47685077TT3.402142.40236301.2836087461500.5470066937317416341552100WETH
2025-11-25 11:00:02FORECAST20265713735.94231.0133.4762.18274667822450.4692915922.1992915924.056.249291592TT3.942142.94236302.923552122140.661205377150560.570552004735651634154280WETH
2025-11-25 07:00:03FORECAST20265713736.46431.13633.87.39930959727830.759842932.449842934.056.49984293TT4.464143.46436306.806230962442.27015428926520.593077221242871634154280WETH
2025-11-25 03:00:04FORECAST20265713736.37430.79433.5847.92786224089330.7700791562.5900791564.056.640079156TT4.374143.37436307.196769038622.43541366578570.589213271203991634154280WETH
2025-11-24 23:00:02FORECAST20265713736.01431.13633.5758.60081803808910.7062995942.6362995944.056.686299594TT4.014140.01436307.693245880222.64641361936480.573674373871381634153260WETH
2025-11-24 19:00:03FORECAST20265713736.06831.35233.719.49202791117290.8685044062.9085044064.056.958504406TT4.068140.06836308.349436116182.92686145400920.576013135481041634153260WETH
2025-11-24 15:00:02FORECAST20265713736.03231.24433.6389.92781942888230.9216540413.0416540414.057.091654041TT4.032140.03236308.6697653423.06441769347080.574454253205471634153260WETH
2025-11-24 11:00:01FORECAST20265713735.83431.02833.43110.4459918212491.1696856713.1896856714.057.239685671TT3.834139.83436309.050187590713.22833573192820.56586022451321634153260WETH
2025-11-24 07:00:03FORECAST20265713735.99631.44233.71910.9059972194751.354331443.354331444.057.40433144TT3.996140.99636309.387486581343.37417906839650.572894206374981634153260WETH
2025-11-24 03:00:05FORECAST20265713735.79831.9133.85411.0691497283861.2830715593.3130715594.057.363071559TT3.798141.79836309.507023523793.42597958537210.564294200044131634153260WETH
2025-11-23 23:00:03FORECAST20265713735.83431.20833.52110.7433811442961.2295282232.9795282234.117.089528223TT3.834138.83436309.268293364633.32258715146210.56586022451321634153260WETH
2025-11-23 19:00:02FORECAST20265713735.5131.13633.32310.9249665593411.7098434433.0698434434.117.179843443TT3.51138.5136309.401387391933.38019981067060.551731725981221634153260WETH
2025-11-23 15:00:02FORECAST20265713735.1531.13633.14311.0678407605541.7374025133.1074025134.117.217402513TT3.15138.1536309.506064679493.42556383829830.535956850752091634153260WETH
2025-11-23 11:00:01FORECAST20265713734.57430.70432.63911.2732214301621.6610245192.7010245194.116.811024519TT2.574136.57436309.656471015523.49082596504060.510609400169851634153260WETH
2025-11-23 07:00:04FORECAST20265713735.00630.54232.7748.07011474302762.0059065952.9859065954.177.155906595TT3.006136.00636307.301787350242.47996068465390.529629624048771634154280WETH
2025-11-23 03:00:03FORECAST20265713735.02429.85832.4418.61577123327932.2019696933.0619696934.177.231969693TT3.024136.02436307.704268047232.65110958099860.530420969656211634153260WETH
2025-11-22 23:00:02FORECAST20265713733.22429.33631.2814.0922541117772.1944893742.9444893744.177.114489374TT1.224131.22436311.713021962054.39273911543890.451213309408821624153252.5WETL
2025-11-22 19:00:02FORECAST20265713732.88230.0231.45113.0652197742542.1492137592.7092137594.116.819213759TT0.882132.88236310.965480755224.06283234827350.436286066288021624153252.5WETL
2025-11-22 15:00:02FORECAST20265713733.33229.06631.19912.4010097083692.1074814532.6574814533.976.627481453TT1.332133.33236310.480986795153.85027773151060.455942574772951624153252.5WETL
2025-11-22 11:00:02FORECAST20265713735.07830.36232.7216.9251493225412.996064614.106064614.078.17606461TT3.078135.07836313.764904699965.31051786421950.532794273177321634152240WETL
2025-11-22 07:00:04FORECAST20265713735.0631.83833.44912.9252510367382.996064614.226064614.198.41606461TT3.06136.0636310.863451489034.01798814864270.532003297331771634153260WETH
2025-11-22 03:00:05FORECAST20265713735.40231.76633.58411.9383351487872.8606314664.1606314664.278.430631466TT3.402137.40236310.143015321143.70259126095910.547006693731741634153260WETH
2025-11-21 23:00:02FORECAST20265713733.87231.26232.56714.049279389841.8291348463.0391348464.317.349134846TT1.872134.87236311.681781290294.37890442607020.479669277566821624153252.5WETH
2025-11-21 19:00:02FORECAST20265713734.4330.6532.5414.5902859397451.7602371713.0202371714.267.280237171TT2.43133.4336312.074819844974.55326085613250.504261814778231634153260WETH
2025-11-21 15:00:02FORECAST20265713734.7930.41632.60315.2097375092861.8677175443.0777175444.397.467717544TT2.79135.7936312.524185570094.75341082782440.520125240271961634153260WETH
2025-11-21 11:00:02FORECAST20265713735.45630.77633.11616.8898867898552.8413401174.3213401174.258.571340117TT3.456136.45636313.739454479595.29902386767120.549370084426471634152240WETL
2025-11-21 07:00:04FORECAST20265713732.68429.7531.21720.7700713799612.8377968084.3577968084.338.687796808TT0.684136.68436316.526291091536.57427365960550.427683879502351624152235WETL
2025-11-21 03:00:04FORECAST20265713732.70230.66831.68522.2833865116362.9897653944.4897653944.278.759765394TT0.702135.70236317.605765122287.07733202254380.428464541502311624152235WETL
2025-11-20 23:00:02FORECAST20265713733.60229.24631.42411.0874479210521.7212607722.4912607724.166.651260772TT1.602129.60236309.520426970743.43179161453990.467791622597271624153252.5WETL
2025-11-20 19:00:04FORECAST20265713734.71830.07432.39610.9601732270211.7212607722.4912607724.26.691260772TT2.718128.71836309.427185208373.39137555103320.516954299496131634153260WETH
2025-11-20 15:00:05FORECAST20265713734.77229.87632.32410.8141453761951.6468512832.4568512834.136.586851283TT2.772127.77236309.320167697113.34503326126540.519332616608791634153260WETH
2025-11-20 11:00:03FORECAST20265713734.10629.42631.76612.5567773614361.8181112182.6881112184.176.858111218TT2.106130.10636310.594681588253.90006826634990.489978250950991624153252.5WETL
2025-11-20 07:00:05FORECAST20265713732.55827.60830.08313.3748636230871.8232293312.6932293314.196.883229331TT0.558126.55836311.191064705844.16213805116380.422227335525341624153252.5WETL
2025-11-20 03:00:05FORECAST20265713732.97227.28430.12813.2948007233221.7988198692.6588198694.126.778819869TT0.972126.97236311.132753715174.13644795914160.440206389579911624153252.5WETL
2025-11-19 23:00:08FORECAST20265713730.23623.6326.9335.502034674015800.254.554.8TF-1.764122.23636305.400041748741.68032161914750.325341014078461624124228WETL
2025-11-19 19:00:03FORECAST20265713729.53424.06226.7985.241193881722300.254.514.76TF-2.466122.53436305.206185898661.59964479419580.29791742684261624124228WETL
2025-11-19 15:00:03FORECAST20265713730.48823.9927.2397.84528665458990.350393890.670393894.565.23039389TF-1.512125.48836307.135789969982.40956831419840.335431273580541624134242WETL
2025-11-19 11:00:02FORECAST20265713728.0423.5425.793.51655153772130.0303149770.3203149774.34.620314977TF-3.96119.0436303.921201407521.06875456815570.243362162645031614124224WETL
2025-11-19 07:00:05FORECAST20265713729.19223.2726.2314.8162149889080.031496080.341496084.374.71149608TF-2.808123.19236304.890068032861.4684161156290.284950116827121624124228WETL
2025-11-19 03:00:08FORECAST20265713729.58823.57626.5824.94720455580270.0318897810.3018897814.384.681889781TF-2.412125.58836304.987540176791.50883574822570.299989220034421624124228WETL
2025-11-18 23:00:02FORECAST20265713728.4921.66825.0794.8048853195480.1291339280.3391339283.914.249133928TF-3.51123.4936304.881635859191.46492129633960.259208208776741624124228WETL
2025-11-18 19:00:03FORECAST20265713728.4921.66825.0795.08124837128140.1291339280.3391339283.984.319133928TF-3.51125.4936305.087251484841.55022409970610.259208208776741624124228WETL
2025-11-18 15:00:02FORECAST20265713728.02220.69624.3595.6962180571660.1295276290.3995276294.034.429527629TF-3.978123.02236305.544274700031.740446814810.242739377527111614124224WETL
2025-11-18 11:00:02FORECAST20265713729.71420.01224.8638.706532073735501.54.646.14TT-2.286130.71436307.771159894232.67961947498990.304848543734741624143242WETL
2025-11-18 07:00:06FORECAST20265713729.71420.01224.8633.40190755084101.54.616.11TT-2.286135.71436303.835583572471.03362056596940.304848543734741624144256WETL
2025-11-18 03:00:06FORECAST20265713729.04817.1523.0994.712672503320801.584.596.17TT-2.952131.04836304.812996897821.43648382913520.279571820419551624154270WETL
2025-11-17 23:00:04FORECAST20265713725.35818.21221.7859.614758568034101.194.445.63TF-6.642119.35836308.439685344972.96557310739230.160585871339621614143236WETL
2025-11-17 19:00:04FORECAST20265713725.35818.21221.7859.320105367498901.184.325.5TF-6.642124.35836308.222966620192.87267052558330.160585871339621614143236WETL
2025-11-17 15:00:02FORECAST20265713726.2421.05623.64810.3921308836070.1582678021.3682678024.315.678267802TF-5.76133.2436309.010668274313.21127930913750.185521880175761614143236WETL
2025-11-17 11:00:02FORECAST20265713735.3320.6627.9958.34638557355480.2421261152.6121261153.946.552126115TT3.33149.3336307.505636694772.5665606098960.543852928599791634153260WETL
2025-11-17 07:00:04FORECAST20265713735.3320.6627.99512.0863572573670.2421261152.6121261153.956.562126115TT3.33147.3336310.251184750213.74980665841230.543852928599791634153260WETL
2025-11-17 03:00:04FORECAST20265713723.28817.67220.4814.00330823144602.63.986.58TT-8.712130.28836311.648358574.364108024880.11103120554991614153245WETL
2025-11-16 23:00:07FORECAST20265713721.09211.62416.35822.00517547378301.386.848.22TT-10.908120.09236317.407623508576.98461045202270.0715649259835811614142224WETL
2025-11-16 19:00:04FORECAST20265713721.09211.62416.35822.5619139618601.386.858.23TT-10.908118.09236317.803991877227.17026632146940.0715649259835811614142224WETL
2025-11-16 15:00:02FORECAST20265713729.13824.33226.73525.7710487801140.1212599081.4312599086.888.311259908TT-2.862126.13836320.077831289058.24874140358320.282927487228831624142228WETL
2025-11-16 11:00:02FORECAST20265713713.26211.37212.31714.05635462180900.335.615.94TF-18.73899.26236311.686924897214.38118194733620.0098057421426091614123218WETL
2025-11-16 07:00:07FORECAST20265713713.26211.37212.31714.5822007340400.335.645.97TF-18.73893.26236312.068949958044.55065207114910.0098057421426091614123218WETL
2025-11-16 03:00:05FORECAST20265713715.8914.70215.29614.24128139065800.385.465.84TF-16.11100.8936311.82133161474.44073532713450.0206015912650291614123218WETL