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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 25, 2025

[ Monday, November 24, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 26, 2025 ]

DAY 56 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/26/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.79°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.326
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 152

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.35 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.90 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.53 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.43 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 2 in
SWE DAY: 37
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 304.21 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.73 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 136

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 70.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-26 07:00:03OBSERVATION20265613631.7899421.1499626.469952.40813166666671.351.93.535.43TF-0.21006151.7899437304.21051445528 0.732578973192710.3259230007046416 24154270WETL
2025-11-26 03:00:02OBSERVATION20265613631.7899421.1499626.469952.40813166666671.351.93.535.43TF-0.21006151.7899437304.21051445528 0.732578973192710.3259230007046416 24154270WETL
2025-11-25 11:00:01FORECAST20265613630.52421.93826.2312.39784907822451.7031505262.2531505263.535.783150526TT-1.476150.52437304.202843839310.729432508693360.273851230533771624154270WETL
2025-11-25 07:00:02FORECAST20265613631.02821.70426.3665.46283848114541.6563001072.2063001073.535.736300107TT-0.972151.02837306.480420610461.67425303542840.294087116354231624154270WETL
2025-11-25 03:00:04FORECAST20265613631.04620.60625.8265.89096630043281.7893710452.3393710453.535.869371045TT-0.954151.04637306.797151031561.80733167779570.294822418703071624154270WETL
2025-11-24 23:00:02FORECAST20265613631.04621.50626.2766.60047285053211.9318908072.4518908073.535.981890807TT-0.954148.04637307.321288623672.02846582195110.294822418703071624154270WETL
2025-11-24 19:00:02FORECAST20265613631.17220.64225.9076.98563313065732.0437018912.5637018913.536.093701891TT-0.828148.17237307.605424834562.14881864689420.299993076080291624154270WETL
2025-11-24 15:00:01FORECAST20265613631.2821.4726.3757.2392630660932.1169302772.6369302773.536.166930277TT-0.72148.2837307.792378190212.22818999545730.304457417525011624154270WETL
2025-11-24 11:00:01FORECAST20265613630.59621.12825.8626.98431059699862.0244105422.5444105423.536.074410542TT-1.404147.59637307.604449665082.14840501747980.276699498457041624154270WETL
2025-11-24 07:00:03FORECAST20265613631.13621.4726.3036.90521235913941.980316032.520316033.536.05031603TT-0.864149.13637307.546120664972.12367127342110.298511565618221624154270WETL
2025-11-24 03:00:05FORECAST20265613631.58621.25426.427.14617950845572.0192924292.5492924293.536.079292429TT-0.414149.58637307.723779287222.19904936580680.317263668098231624154270WETL
2025-11-23 23:00:03FORECAST20265613630.84819.68825.2686.74238802043581.65354422.33354423.535.8635442TT-1.152146.84837307.426013066882.07278546767250.286781110754061624154270WETL
2025-11-23 19:00:01FORECAST20265613630.70419.59825.1515.22085480022041.2500006751.9400006753.535.470000675TF-1.296146.70437306.301247845271.59915434012640.280998899122181624154270WETL
2025-11-23 15:00:02FORECAST20265613630.61419.7625.1875.24784479010091.2665361171.9465361173.535.476536117TF-1.386146.61437306.321237588381.60752631077550.277413824122261624154270WETL
2025-11-23 11:00:01FORECAST20265613630.05619.59824.8275.71677700797790.9944887261.6244887263.535.154488726TF-1.944146.05637306.66832675691.75315443947890.255697945117261624154270WETL
2025-11-23 07:00:04FORECAST20265613629.94820.9325.4395.59947801822170.8748036221.6248036223.535.154803622TF-2.052144.94837306.581544429721.71669661882670.251599651274491624154270WETL
2025-11-23 03:00:03FORECAST20265613629.19221.52425.3584.46533335125290.7893705051.4993705053.535.029370505TF-2.808145.19237305.741125429021.36523604422780.223908340258161614144248WETL
2025-11-22 23:00:02FORECAST20265613628.72420.55224.6385.70906812268250.6216538791.3916538793.534.921653879TF-3.276141.72437306.66262421931.75075781234850.207670929237771614144248WETL
2025-11-22 19:00:02FORECAST20265613630.0220.5725.2954.63056723139480.5330711541.1430711543.534.673071154TF-1.98144.0237305.863717044671.41632250541970.254327990670511624144256WETL
2025-11-22 15:00:02FORECAST20265613630.30820.37225.344.35005284656670.4925199510.9925199513.534.522519951TF-1.692144.30837305.655565137891.3296178611970.265394274747221624144256WETL
2025-11-22 11:00:02FORECAST20265613630.00221.14625.5746.56542071391521.0732289261.6532289263.535.183228926TF-1.998144.00237307.295416544052.01752369306950.253644457026811624154270WETL
2025-11-22 07:00:04FORECAST20265613631.35221.63226.4926.09876246429291.1834652061.8934652063.535.423465206TF-0.648145.35237306.950755232141.87201974439610.307449955511881624154270WETL
2025-11-22 03:00:05FORECAST20265613631.17220.8426.0068.57328921715431.149606922.039606923.535.56960692TF-0.828146.17237308.773722975432.64720642972580.299993076080291624153252.5WETL
2025-11-21 23:00:02FORECAST20265613631.24421.18226.2139.10331794972330.976378481.976378483.545.51637848TF-0.756145.24437309.162703974152.81440639247290.302966021713691624153252.5WETL
2025-11-21 19:00:02FORECAST20265613630.3821.32625.8539.28048223692531.019685591.989685593.535.51968559TF-1.62143.3837309.292605744822.87038453362720.268198489837671624153252.5WETL
2025-11-21 15:00:02FORECAST20265613630.23621.93826.0879.41816681697541.0145674772.0745674773.535.604567477TF-1.764145.23637309.393519539282.91391977911210.262604996923931624153252.5WETL
2025-11-21 11:00:02FORECAST20265613630.5621.34425.9529.98951366798491.2094494722.1994494723.535.729449472TT-1.44144.5637309.811902546283.09487023499050.275273553374011624153252.5WETL
2025-11-21 07:00:04FORECAST20265613630.57821.36225.9710.2254290517921.2271660172.3071660173.545.847166017TT-1.422147.57837309.984480446383.16972431196110.275986074175931624153252.5WETL
2025-11-21 03:00:03FORECAST20265613630.50622.53226.51910.184013655321.1948825352.2348825353.545.774882535TT-1.494146.50637309.954191549393.15657771926250.273141432631191624153252.5WETL
2025-11-20 23:00:02FORECAST20265613629.58820.73225.166.17882767901160.5295278451.3895278453.544.929527845TF-2.412139.58837307.009918297011.89696138090460.238192825454711614144248WETL
2025-11-20 19:00:04FORECAST20265613629.62419.95824.7916.40045591583490.5295278451.4295278453.544.969527845TF-2.376137.62437307.173624632641.96605124296840.23951568070471614144248WETL
2025-11-20 15:00:04FORECAST20265613629.44419.27424.3596.34732560035540.5090553931.3990553933.544.939055393TF-2.556137.44437307.134388169741.94948196477930.232941586566971614144248WETL
2025-11-20 11:00:03FORECAST20265613630.21820.82225.526.9373766496420.6212601781.5012601783.545.041260178TF-1.782140.21837307.569840823392.13372783186230.261910025750051624154270WETL
2025-11-20 07:00:05FORECAST20265613629.24621.25425.257.27364247036720.6055121381.4755121383.585.055512138TF-2.754138.24637307.817710351272.23895597114220.225827136701591614144248WETL
2025-11-20 03:00:05FORECAST20265613629.3921.0225.2057.05060012608540.5279530411.4479530413.534.977953041TF-2.61138.3937307.653324180872.16914056626020.230989049192621614144248WETL
2025-11-19 23:00:06FORECAST20265613627.71617.25822.4875.502034674015801.193.614.8TF-4.284135.71637306.509432412871.68642552504850.175146935575621614144248WETL
2025-11-19 19:00:02FORECAST20265613627.66217.8722.7665.241193881722301.193.574.76TF-4.338136.66237306.316311817151.60546317936780.173500695127351614144248WETL
2025-11-19 15:00:02FORECAST20265613627.6818.01422.8475.703940309472201.33.584.88TF-4.32138.6837306.6588309311.7491636670030.174048347024221614144248WETL
2025-11-19 11:00:02FORECAST20265613626.43820.9323.6843.328015006756600.993.64.59TF-5.562135.43837304.895919982071.01469819719920.138836082114391614134236WETL
2025-11-19 07:00:05FORECAST20265613626.61819.92223.274.618973884023801.043.644.68TF-5.382137.61837305.855117295741.41273679908410.143615570223651614144248WETL
2025-11-19 03:00:08FORECAST20265613626.65419.7623.2074.745535799822501.013.644.65TF-5.346139.65437305.948985077251.45189186160350.144584599877891614144248WETL
2025-11-18 23:00:02FORECAST20265613626.45619.544233.767815952023100.363.764.12TF-5.544139.45637305.22305044751.15002427840120.139309111738951614124224WETL
2025-11-18 19:00:03FORECAST20265613626.27620.323.2884.044179003756500.363.834.19TF-5.724141.27637305.428426497131.23520722959010.134627901810131614124224WETL
2025-11-18 15:00:02FORECAST20265613625.68219.4922.5864.683685560527500.423.884.3TF-6.318138.68237305.90311608441.43275400772490.119949024822121614124224WETL
2025-11-18 11:00:02FORECAST20265613626.16819.34622.7578.706532073735502.713.436.14TT-5.832145.16837308.871557407212.68920012123050.13187143232841614153245WETL
2025-11-18 07:00:05FORECAST20265613626.07820.31823.1983.40190755084102.713.46.11TT-5.922150.07837304.950907896571.03741479620920.129604222576621614154260WETL
2025-11-18 03:00:06FORECAST20265613624.60218.51821.564.712672503320802.843.336.17TT-7.398145.60237305.924614099281.44172251695470.0962182754991321614154260WETL
2025-11-17 23:00:03FORECAST20265613625.41219.38222.3979.61475856803410.3000001621.7500001623.885.630000162TF-6.588138.41237309.537547281892.97612878485680.113662851373361614153245WETL
2025-11-17 19:00:03FORECAST20265613625.41219.41822.4159.32010536749890.3000001621.6500001623.855.500000162TF-6.588143.41237309.321650525532.88291037534670.113662851373361614153245WETL
2025-11-17 15:00:02FORECAST20265613625.23220.62422.9288.77542164972650.3090552851.6590552853.865.519055285TF-6.768151.23237308.922127041782.7109219217220.109604321749151614153245WETL
2025-11-17 11:00:02FORECAST20265613626.02422.24424.1348.44468717355480.51181132.52181133.796.3118113TT-5.976158.02437308.67926468452.60669982722350.12825689215581614153245WETL
2025-11-17 07:00:04FORECAST20265613626.02422.24424.13411.764611714360.51181132.52181133.86.3218113TT-5.976156.02437311.107895629193.66006359334920.12825689215581614153245WETL
2025-11-17 03:00:04FORECAST20265613625.2520.85823.05414.0033082314460.7149610162.7649610163.826.584961016TT-6.75151.2537312.734050685974.37931130622430.110005444200971614153245WETL
2025-11-16 23:00:07FORECAST20265613624.33221.30822.8222.0051754737830.3314962421.8214962426.48.221496242TT-7.668143.33237318.471471947047.00802062358870.0908635063620561614152230WETL
2025-11-16 19:00:04FORECAST20265613624.33221.30822.8222.561913961860.3314962421.8214962426.418.231496242TT-7.668141.33237318.866336974047.19423486014180.0908635063620561614152230WETL
2025-11-16 15:00:02FORECAST20265613625.7922.78424.28724.595727849340.366141931.746141936.448.18614193TT-6.21140.7937320.304076625127.87811189770560.122530666126381614152230WETL
2025-11-16 11:00:02FORECAST20265613623.913.35218.62614.05635462180900.825.125.94TF-8.1129.937312.772470739234.39644076464980.082759251470051614133227WETL
2025-11-16 07:00:06FORECAST20265613624.06213.35218.70714.5822007340400.825.155.97TF-7.938124.06237313.153046859564.56646058978220.0857323652055461614133227WETL
2025-11-16 03:00:05FORECAST20265613623.8115.0819.44514.2412813906580.1082677750.8182677755.025.838267775TF-8.19128.8137312.906367680384.45618763106490.0811412885834161614133227WETL
2025-11-15 23:00:05FORECAST20265613628.415.60222.00115.5900238689150.1937008921.0637008924.595.653700892TF-3.6130.437313.88103009064.89341275111220.196848002020161614143236WETL
2025-11-15 19:00:03FORECAST20265613628.415.60222.00115.8551816270680.1937008921.0637008924.635.693700892TF-3.6128.437314.072252665784.97967261003830.196848002020161614143236WETL
2025-11-15 15:00:02FORECAST20265613629.62420.324.96215.4790525799760.1940945931.0840945934.635.714094593TF-2.376133.62437313.800963211044.85734160919090.23951568070471614143236WETL
2025-11-15 11:00:02FORECAST20265613620.55217.49219.02216.0599786594540.1539370912.5239370914.246.763937091TT-11.448132.55237314.219857055815.04636419869310.0371539424485991614152230WETL
2025-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20265613620.55217.49219.02217.8057016400990.1539370912.5639370914.276.833937091TT-11.448128.55237315.47494881495.61725281352370.0371539424485991614152230WETL
2025-11-15 03:00:04FORECAST20265613617.2417.07817.15910.39735769172801.834.386.21TT-14.76117.2437310.110185342983.22432652085890.0146580904696281614153245WETL