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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 24, 2025

[ Sunday, November 23, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 25, 2025 ]

DAY 55 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/25/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.55°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.15°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.167
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 152

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.55 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.86 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 38
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 303.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.01 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 135

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 36.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-25 07:00:02OBSERVATION20265513526.7600221.5499224.154970.0377295833333330.0299999999999980.553.864.41TF-5.23998151.7600238303.557557811 0.0114531001738930.1667986776364116 14134236WETL
2025-11-25 03:00:03OBSERVATION20265513526.7600221.5499224.154970.0377295833333330.0299999999999980.553.864.41TF-5.23998151.7600238303.557557811 0.0114531001738930.1667986776364116 14134236WETL
2025-11-24 11:00:01FORECAST20265513524.20619.02221.614000.523.864.38TF-7.794149.20638303.5293486983800.110450478430441614135245WETL
2025-11-24 07:00:02FORECAST20265513525.14218.89622.0190.0606638759913710.0161417410.5361417413.864.396141741TF-6.858150.14238303.57470367230.0184160181776940.129272559764631614134236WETL
2025-11-24 03:00:05FORECAST20265513525.26818.57221.920.0434113005510650.0110236280.5310236283.864.391023628TF-6.732150.26838303.561805601470.0131780127787890.131966218469841614134236WETL
2025-11-23 23:00:01FORECAST20265513524.8918.53621.7130.448148525631630.1019685590.6819685593.864.541968559TF-7.11147.8938303.864239364010.136176310863160.123999831756841614134236WETL
2025-11-23 19:00:01FORECAST20265513524.67419.38222.0280.494355548373320.1129921870.6929921873.864.552992187TF-7.326147.67438303.898747092340.15023403176880.119601310838141614134236WETL
2025-11-23 15:00:02FORECAST20265513524.9819.95822.4690.431555541440230.1007874560.6807874563.864.540787456TF-7.02147.9838303.851846618810.13112894818520.125865452619821614134236WETL
2025-11-23 11:00:01FORECAST20265513524.69220.10222.3971.82738920991730.0484252230.6284252233.864.488425223TF-7.308147.69238304.892524184580.557157308879370.119963608402581614134236WETL
2025-11-23 07:00:04FORECAST20265513524.40419.36421.8842.14550065965090.1051181670.7451181673.864.605118167TF-7.596147.40438305.129179506190.654654855909280.114258995940131614134236WETL
2025-11-23 03:00:03FORECAST20265513524.94419.90422.4241.28825145926130.0653543660.7053543663.864.565354366TF-7.056147.94438304.491001988850.392260977644070.125116875584221614134236WETL
2025-11-22 23:00:02FORECAST20265513524.42219.99422.2083.02447540354340.1291339280.7691339283.864.629133928TF-7.578145.42238305.782089311820.924830407967710.114609791663411614134236WETL
2025-11-22 19:00:02FORECAST20265513525.28620.04822.6672.35705986990720.0346456880.6146456883.864.474645688TF-6.714146.28638305.286460687540.719578465312610.132354154880691614134236WETL
2025-11-22 15:00:02FORECAST20265513525.30420.26422.7842.25714674799210.0610236550.5010236553.864.361023655TF-6.696146.30438305.212191996150.688908706611640.132742874238731614134236WETL
2025-11-22 11:00:02FORECAST20265513525.48420.19222.8382.13211343444440.0440945120.5840945123.864.444094512TF-6.516146.48438305.119224089110.650548796787650.136673194238141614134236WETL
2025-11-22 07:00:04FORECAST20265513525.28621.07423.181.18707097147870.0507874290.7107874293.864.570787429TF-6.714146.28638304.415586643980.361362906170720.132354154880691614134236WETL
2025-11-22 03:00:05FORECAST20265513525.01620.322.6583.64314452788090.1531496890.8931496893.864.753149689TF-6.984147.01638306.24076863191.11567938045530.126617138164821614134236WETL
2025-11-21 23:00:02FORECAST20265513524.94419.47222.2084.62842055108090.2279528791.0079528793.864.867952879TF-7.056145.94438306.969762773591.42078515858170.125116875584221614144248WETL
2025-11-21 19:00:02FORECAST20265513524.85419.32822.0914.50477700677760.2366143010.9666143013.864.826614301TF-7.146144.85438306.878380444811.38241867210490.123259012425161614134236WETL
2025-11-21 15:00:02FORECAST20265513525.32219.81422.5684.75925687228210.204724521.064724523.864.92472452TF-6.678147.32238307.066429884881.46140801667670.13313237684651614144248WETL
2025-11-21 11:00:01FORECAST20265513525.17820.76822.9734.55021215798210.2704725870.9904725873.864.850472587TF-6.822146.17838306.911963939581.39651454974810.130038269721881614144248WETL
2025-11-21 07:00:04FORECAST20265513525.7921.12823.4594.70096546653770.2929135441.0929135443.864.952913544TF-6.21148.7938307.023365828921.44330624018190.143535248269891614144248WETL
2025-11-21 03:00:03FORECAST20265513525.05220.80422.9284.63310322686780.3118111921.0518111923.864.911811192TF-6.948148.05238306.973223076241.42223863039650.127371935218511614144248WETL
2025-11-20 23:00:02FORECAST20265513525.39420.15622.7753.57562334618080.2413387130.8613387133.874.731338713TF-6.606142.39438306.190743675361.09482277147010.134698225667951614134236WETL
2025-11-20 19:00:04FORECAST20265513525.3419.29222.3163.87410778880150.2444883210.9044883213.874.774488321TF-6.66140.3438306.411819374391.18707241601920.133522663002031614134236WETL
2025-11-20 15:00:04FORECAST20265513524.90818.91421.9113.90175252436340.2996064610.8896064613.874.759606461TF-7.092139.90838306.432286264551.19562294647910.124371403990361614134236WETL
2025-11-20 11:00:03FORECAST20265513525.64619.00422.3253.80591585625860.2543308460.8843308463.874.754330846TF-6.354141.64638306.361327060131.16598543240260.140277677241171614134236WETL
2025-11-20 07:00:05FORECAST20265513525.17819.3122.2444.0563416697830.255905650.865905653.914.77590565TF-6.822141.17838306.546710470131.24345819541490.130038269721881614134236WETL
2025-11-20 03:00:04FORECAST20265513525.32219.81422.5684.16744081600430.3263781290.9163781293.864.776378129TF-6.678141.32238306.628916389021.27785786152680.13313237684651614134236WETL
2025-11-19 23:00:05FORECAST20265513525.26820.37222.825.50203467401580.248031631.188031633.945.12803163TF-6.732140.26838307.614615392141.69250628012160.131966218469841614144248WETL
2025-11-19 19:00:02FORECAST20265513525.46620.73223.0995.24119388172230.248031631.188031633.95.08803163TF-6.534141.46638307.422227262111.61125949663160.136276629514261614144248WETL
2025-11-19 15:00:02FORECAST20265513526.83420.67823.7565.70394030947220.3212600161.3012600163.915.211260016TF-5.166142.83438307.763447273191.75546433268370.168667333244071614144248WETL
2025-11-19 11:00:02FORECAST20265513528.83219.95824.3953.32801500675660.2901576371.0401576373.884.920157637TF-3.168140.83238306.007222673761.01839662923420.224128128209821614144248WETL
2025-11-19 07:00:04FORECAST20265513529.22819.00424.1164.61897388402380.3122048931.0922048933.925.012204893TF-2.772143.22838306.962781954281.41785307321410.236233294995191614144248WETL
2025-11-19 03:00:08FORECAST20265513529.6618.96824.3144.74553579982250.2657481751.0557481753.924.975748175TF-2.34144.6638307.056293715091.45714663438580.249838892282711624144256WETL
2025-11-18 23:00:02FORECAST20265513530.48819.56225.0253.76781595202310.2114174370.8314174373.624.451417437TF-1.512145.48838306.333112402311.15420678754230.277034019228281624134242WETL
2025-11-18 19:00:03FORECAST20265513531.60420.19225.8984.04417900375650.2114174370.8314174373.694.521417437TF-0.396146.60438306.537709503891.23969336863520.315834223778421624134242WETL
2025-11-18 15:00:02FORECAST20265513531.04619.6725.3584.68368556052750.2728347930.9028347933.734.632834793TF-0.954145.04638307.010598693661.43794110803040.296142843796671624134242WETL
2025-11-18 11:00:02FORECAST20265513534.71821.45228.0858.70653207373551.4992134082.9592134083.516.469213408TT2.718150.71838309.967781344462.69874443010020.434055596099541624153252.5WETL
2025-11-18 07:00:05FORECAST20265513535.56421.90228.7333.4019075508411.4992134082.9592134083.486.439213408TT3.564155.56438306.062002030691.04119463573370.467745901913511624154270WETL
2025-11-18 03:00:05FORECAST20265513533.42221.227.3114.71267250332081.5803158143.0903158143.416.500315814TT1.422153.42238307.03201517111.4469413355360.383440784820961624154270WETL
2025-11-17 23:00:03FORECAST20265513529.8422.15425.9977.11523137309880.889764262.209764263.455.65976426TT-2.16144.8438308.801631877252.19719505919710.255628096907691624154270WETL
2025-11-17 19:00:03FORECAST20265513528.70623.52226.1146.85889422666450.8822839412.1522839413.385.532283941TF-3.294149.70638308.613339692882.11674625389120.220351539985861614154260WETL
2025-11-17 15:00:02FORECAST20265513531.89223.73827.8156.24496868887250.9000004862.1600004863.385.540000486TF-0.108157.89238308.161882599841.924461307940.326210559744131624154270WETL
2025-11-17 11:00:02FORECAST20265513535.61827.0531.3344.56440706094371.8649616372.7049616373.436.134961637TT3.618163.61838306.922455339661.40091902231450.469906828755351624154270WETL
2025-11-17 07:00:04FORECAST20265513535.11427.0531.0827.88433160174931.8649616372.7049616373.446.144961637TT3.114162.11438309.365838482312.43914285684770.449781128080541624154270WETL
2025-11-17 03:00:04FORECAST20265513534.73625.95230.3448.19964147340231.8940955112.7640955113.446.204095511TT2.736157.73638309.596829251572.5385830011650.4347683267121624153252.5WETL
2025-11-16 23:00:07FORECAST20265513534.95222.83828.89518.8728089325611.0452761553.3752761554.848.215276155TT2.952150.95238317.307691237095.98848742954960.443336979574221624152235WETL
2025-11-16 19:00:04FORECAST20265513532.82822.83827.83319.4295474206371.0452761553.3752761554.858.225276155TT0.828148.82838317.704200821676.17284883560030.360836894731251624152235WETL
2025-11-16 15:00:02FORECAST20265513531.89225.10628.49921.382943118730.9366146793.2666146794.888.146614679TT-0.108146.89238319.090984129896.82310436334890.326210559744131624152235WETL
2025-11-16 11:00:02FORECAST20265513524.65620.49822.57714.0563546218090.3263781291.9663781294.36.266378129TT-7.344137.65638313.853899334774.41164170848690.119239783348721614153245WETL
2025-11-16 07:00:06FORECAST20265513525.08821.8323.45914.582200734040.3263781291.9663781294.336.296378129TT-6.912132.08838314.233032010124.58220915003750.128129846711441614153245WETL
2025-11-16 03:00:04FORECAST20265513526.2422.7324.48513.2030392187330.2724410921.8624410924.26.062441092TT-5.76137.2438313.237584150054.13568810831440.154041228141191614153245WETL
2025-11-15 23:00:05FORECAST20265513532.05428.7630.40713.8137446730710.7661421461.5061421464.285.786142146TF0.054000000000002134.05438313.678807870864.33307896128160.332107556370511624153252.5WETL
2025-11-15 19:00:02FORECAST20265513532.05428.7630.40714.0789024312250.7661421461.5061421464.325.826142146TF0.054000000000002132.05438313.870166596994.41894745159120.332107556370511624153252.5WETL
2025-11-15 15:00:02FORECAST20265513533.85430.16432.00913.7733587325050.7921264121.5221264124.335.852126412TF1.854135.85438313.649650883384.32000915794160.400137891033451624153252.5WETM
2025-11-15 11:00:02FORECAST20265513535.4216.84426.13214.0762515168430.8681107052.8081107054.136.938110705TT3.42144.4238313.868254126074.41808848823090.461988246874991624153252.5WETL
2025-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20265513534.98816.84425.91615.8219744974880.8496067582.8696067584.147.009606758TT2.988139.98838315.124901489074.98589815488340.444767779552561624153252.5WETL
2025-11-15 03:00:04FORECAST20265513533.42217.4225.42110.3973576917280.122047312.292047314.256.54204731TT1.422132.42238311.201711425653.23567550797020.383440784820961624153252.5WETL
2025-11-14 23:00:03FORECAST20265513525.9718.84222.40612.331028300480.2003938091.0603938093.324.380393809TF-6.03116.9738312.606384397513.85475817291640.147678290843751614143236WETL
2025-11-14 19:00:04FORECAST20265513525.9718.84222.40612.1961660295010.2003938091.0603938093.234.290393809TF-6.03122.9738312.508640281293.81140726252440.147678290843751614143236WETL
2025-11-14 15:00:03FORECAST20265513527.0518.12222.58612.6176676868910.165354421.085354423.294.37535442TF-4.95115.0538312.814020824813.94698336256770.173200776981531614143236WETL
2025-11-14 11:00:03FORECAST20265513532.39620.22826.3123.86520958417570.0295275750.0295275752.22.229527575FF0.396131.39638306.405231247391.1843204364590.342647953496721624114214DRYL
2025-11-14 07:00:05FORECAST20265513532.39620.22826.3123.11869276356780.0295275750.0295275752.392.419527575FF0.396139.39638305.851988296680.95385838262370.342647953496721624114214DRYL
2025-11-14 03:00:06FORECAST20265513522.13621.68621.9112.298423603465100.061.831.89FF-9.864123.13638305.242876717750.701577432637670.075618259850691614114212DRYL