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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 23, 2025

[ Saturday, November 22, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, November 24, 2025 ]

DAY 54 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/24/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.22°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.455
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 163

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.52 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.52 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.87 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.39 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 39
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 304.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 134

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 52.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-24 07:00:02OBSERVATION20265413435.1899626.2200230.7049900.520.525.876.39TF3.18996163.1899639304.64583450678 00.4551311831509216 24135252.5WETL
2025-11-24 03:00:05OBSERVATION20265413435.1899626.2200230.7049900.520.525.876.39TF3.18996163.1899639304.64583450678 00.4551311831509216 24135252.5WETL
2025-11-23 11:00:01FORECAST20265413433.38623.61228.4991.60885697960690.5846459850.5846459855.876.454645985TT1.386161.38639305.841771434140.492055668627140.373437075094121624134242WETL
2025-11-23 07:00:04FORECAST20265413433.36823.14428.2561.66861555654710.6409452280.6409452285.876.510945228TT1.368161.36839305.886098649590.510406302738210.372643614475881624134242WETL
2025-11-23 03:00:03FORECAST20265413433.33222.94628.1391.00022901546870.6405515270.6405515275.876.510551527TT1.332161.33239305.389925061220.305459864078050.37105831595281624134242WETL
2025-11-22 23:00:02FORECAST20265413432.97223.84628.4092.41171518003680.6413389290.6413389295.876.511338929TT0.972158.97239306.436747186150.739038154909930.355329512277141624134242WETL
2025-11-22 19:00:02FORECAST20265413432.88223.37828.132.20011296931960.5838585830.5838585835.876.453858583TT0.882158.88239306.280052438250.673850715613280.351434290026831624134242WETL
2025-11-22 15:00:01FORECAST20265413433.13422.33427.7341.99256389645820.4358270070.4358270075.876.305827007TF1.134159.13439306.126277266270.609976167837920.362378879365681624124228WETL
2025-11-22 11:00:01FORECAST20265413432.84622.127.4731.91809167264070.5409451740.5409451745.876.410945174TF0.846158.84639306.071080289440.587072390339320.349880529710241624134242WETL
2025-11-22 07:00:04FORECAST20265413432.77420.87626.8250.947989280655380.6559058660.6559058665.876.525905866TT0.774158.77439305.351109638280.289469578773310.346780557471371624134242WETL
2025-11-22 03:00:04FORECAST20265413432.79220.10226.4472.92508842236010.7350397670.7350397675.876.605039767TT0.792159.79239306.816558266770.897465562374510.347554599760251624134242WETL
2025-11-21 23:00:02FORECAST20265413433.02622.85627.9413.51841832246420.7732287640.7832287645.876.653228764TT1.026159.02639307.254907488851.08105129617580.35767394863331624134242WETL
2025-11-21 19:00:02FORECAST20265413432.39621.66827.0323.35998757896990.7311027570.7311027575.876.601102757TT0.396158.39639307.137924272611.03197961058660.330677543806131624134242WETL
2025-11-21 15:00:02FORECAST20265413432.66621.84827.2573.75240961307160.8555122730.8555122735.876.725512273TT0.666159.66639307.427597553221.15359427238220.342149815057061624134242WETL
2025-11-21 11:00:01FORECAST20265413432.41421.81227.1133.20034422801410.7157484180.7157484185.876.585748418TT0.414159.41439307.01999805550.982569678661820.331437584399011624134242WETL
2025-11-21 07:00:04FORECAST20265413433.96221.32627.6443.2302817761490.7944886180.8044886185.876.674488618TT1.962160.96239307.042116129060.991832552241910.399093906880181624134242WETL
2025-11-21 03:00:03FORECAST20265413433.67421.66827.6713.03727531443670.7279531490.7379531495.876.607953149TT1.674160.67439306.899492046550.932138251206150.386203303106341624134242WETL
2025-11-20 23:00:02FORECAST20265413433.54821.36227.4552.27210735659320.6185042710.6185042715.886.498504271TT1.548154.54839306.333374861260.696022314592280.380601998209511624134242WETL
2025-11-20 19:00:03FORECAST20265413432.52221.59627.0592.56154685552510.6551184640.6551184645.886.535118464TT0.522152.52239306.547648967610.785236166281590.336012313919291624134242WETL
2025-11-20 15:00:03FORECAST20265413432.4521.5627.0052.29429460144570.5854333870.5854333875.886.465433387TT0.45153.4539306.349805810930.702856705625960.332959745869961624134242WETL
2025-11-20 11:00:03FORECAST20265413432.88220.73226.8072.43992402482720.6334649090.6334649095.886.513464909TT0.882153.88239306.457629915830.747733333823230.351434290026831624134242WETL
2025-11-20 07:00:05FORECAST20265413432.7220.26426.4922.62145532931140.6059058390.6059058395.926.525905839TT0.72153.7239306.591979960350.80371717979120.344462273877921624134242WETL
2025-11-20 03:00:04FORECAST20265413432.77421.93827.3562.35897304247540.5885829950.5885829955.876.458582995TT0.774153.77439306.397698687410.722783911480090.346780557471371624134242WETL
2025-11-19 23:00:04FORECAST20265413435.18625.7930.4884.05741636896780.94488240.94488245.956.8948824TT3.186153.18639307.652544361571.24827446944720.454948397224271624134242WETL
2025-11-19 19:00:02FORECAST20265413435.34826.36630.8573.819676941930.94488240.94488245.916.8548824TT3.348154.34839307.477223142271.17446365940520.462433350933091624134242WETL
2025-11-19 15:00:02FORECAST20265413434.91627.91431.4153.92276422256130.9799217890.9799217895.926.899921789TT2.916153.91639307.553257978811.20645891693140.442510234740111624134242WETL
2025-11-19 11:00:01FORECAST20265413434.84430.05632.451.8055597130040.7019688830.7519688835.896.641968883TT2.844149.84439305.987654563430.552478981756330.439202423313641624134242WETH
2025-11-19 07:00:04FORECAST20265413434.91629.60632.2613.02769465283650.7342523650.7842523655.936.714252365TT2.916151.91639306.892410497810.929176510260310.442510234740111624134242WETH
2025-11-19 03:00:08FORECAST20265413435.07830.36232.723.35778101819530.7354334680.7854334685.936.715433468TT3.078153.07839307.13629464421.03129642015510.449967132968041624134242WETH
2025-11-18 23:00:02FORECAST20265413436.03231.2833.6562.67896368957760.1460630710.6460630715.66.246063071TF4.032153.03239306.634528574990.821462768023150.494151974683371624134242WETM
2025-11-18 19:00:03FORECAST20265413436.10431.83833.9712.98396295959790.1460630710.6460630715.676.316063071TF4.104153.10439306.860084015680.915659124481890.497496424290331624134242WETM
2025-11-18 15:00:02FORECAST20265413435.79831.51433.6563.26211058727770.1464567720.6864567725.686.366456772TF3.798151.79839307.065629636621.00168204142670.483286568744941624134242WETM
2025-11-18 11:00:02FORECAST20265413435.1532.6333.891.21824927990261.2129927811.4629927815.526.982992781TT3.15154.1539305.551863953190.372238338233880.453287149193751624144256WETH
2025-11-18 07:00:05FORECAST20265413434.9732.68433.82701.2129927811.4629927815.496.952992781TT2.97157.9739304.6458345067800.444993738874711624145270WETH
2025-11-18 03:00:05FORECAST20265413434.95232.43233.69201.2622054061.5122054065.426.932205406TT2.952157.95239304.6458345067800.444165659322561624155287.5WETH
2025-11-17 23:00:03FORECAST20265413432.66628.4930.5781.49964829007380.5555121111.3155121115.466.775512111TT0.666152.66639305.760746143980.45853358012650.342149815057061624144256WETL
2025-11-17 19:00:03FORECAST20265413431.8228.16629.9931.42744248495140.4736223031.2736223035.396.663622303TT-0.18158.8239305.707162089310.436379391120210.306738577675251624144256WETL
2025-11-17 15:00:02FORECAST20265413434.50227.84231.1721.22964649752980.4511813461.2611813465.396.651181346TT2.502163.50239305.560326997230.375731185876210.423552069961911624144256WETL
2025-11-17 11:00:02FORECAST20265413435.58230.23632.90900.1511811840.8411811845.446.281181184TF3.582165.58239304.6458345067800.473267784963691624135252.5WETM
2025-11-17 07:00:04FORECAST20265413435.92431.58633.7552.66689503739590.1511811840.8411811845.456.291181184TF3.924164.92439306.62559987670.817738290649730.48913614433951624134242WETM
2025-11-17 03:00:04FORECAST20265413435.36631.13633.2512.8674766714410.1645670180.8745670185.456.324567018TT3.366161.36639306.773959790120.879667173103750.463265883384721624134242WETH
2025-11-16 23:00:07FORECAST20265413435.04229.332.17112.2784258136240.4362207083.2062207085.979.176220708TT3.042154.04239313.650466790453.85113398789510.448308422239661624153252.5WETH
2025-11-16 19:00:03FORECAST20265413432.93629.31831.12712.595436796190.4362207083.2062207085.989.186220708TT0.936153.93639313.879254635693.95344631339910.353769582899331624153252.5WETL
2025-11-16 15:00:02FORECAST20265413432.61228.86830.7415.3326280370960.4362207083.2062207086.019.216220708TT0.612152.61239315.84705069694.84276534494940.339843257427351624153252.5WETL
2025-11-16 11:00:02FORECAST20265413430.59624.69227.64411.4590041676150.4854333332.4754333335.477.945433333TT-1.404150.59639313.058233327553.58733560040640.258604110269981624153252.5WETL
2025-11-16 07:00:06FORECAST20265413427.12224.60225.86212.039087926650.4854333332.4754333335.57.975433333TT-4.878145.12239313.477613781593.77398455535310.146318054775141614153245WETL
2025-11-16 03:00:04FORECAST20265413429.08426.13227.60810.9931705764160.444882132.304882135.57.80488213TT-2.916149.08439312.721004146933.43779534141530.205038357613251614153245WETL
2025-11-15 23:00:04FORECAST20265413428.16626.58227.3747.87622374688210.0988189511.4888189515.547.028818951TT-3.834140.16639310.45426813322.44520727899160.176003746800791614144248WETL
2025-11-15 19:00:02FORECAST20265413428.97626.61827.7978.14138150503520.0988189511.4888189515.587.068818951TT-3.024137.97639310.647797857942.52910223606060.201482066631911614143236WETL
2025-11-15 15:00:02FORECAST20265413430.79426.628.6978.11868778940670.0980315491.4780315495.597.068031549TT-1.206139.79439310.631239578462.52191805177390.266118071001091624143242WETL
2025-11-15 11:00:02FORECAST20265413438.80434.19636.56.64616852283441.4976386042.2676386045.818.077638604TT6.804146.80439309.554785444652.0573532711150.621003173337451634154280WETH
2025-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20265413437.74233.83635.7898.48021972493461.5586622592.3686622595.88.168662259TT5.742142.74239310.894914845272.63645718925270.573171880092621634153260WETH
2025-11-15 03:00:04FORECAST20265413435.97833.81834.8989.61442696952481.7098434432.5198434435.918.429843443TT3.978136.97839311.72055403482.99701450166740.491643894350561624153252.5WETH
2025-11-14 23:00:02FORECAST20265413430.63225.89828.26510.1806227633010.5744097590.8644097595.336.194409759TF-1.368128.63239312.131823573253.17769634822060.25996207955521624133231.5WETL
2025-11-14 19:00:04FORECAST20265413430.63225.89828.26510.0457604923230.5744097590.8644097595.246.104409759TF-1.368134.63239312.03391686833.13461799434030.25996207955521624133231.5WETL
2025-11-14 15:00:03FORECAST20265413429.06624.83626.95110.9903243061610.6330712080.9230712085.36.223071208TF-2.934126.06639312.718942430393.43688259398980.201697481000731614133227WETL
2025-11-14 11:00:03FORECAST20265413433.11627.75230.4343.4826288552885002.22.2FF1.116137.11639307.228485124091.06996278745970.35787731560271624114214DRYL
2025-11-14 07:00:05FORECAST20265413433.11627.75230.4342.7361120346806002.392.39FF1.116145.11639306.676804669360.839102096013240.35787731560271624114214DRYL
2025-11-14 03:00:05FORECAST20265413430.0221.59625.8082.29842360346510.0562992430.0562992431.831.886299243FF-1.98139.0239306.35286347570.704128652401670.234377584774651614114212DRYL
2025-11-13 23:00:02FORECAST20265413429.42627.42828.4279.88972483145280.0232283590.7232283593.654.373228359TF-2.574116.42639311.920596943573.08480887303440.213696990045681614133227WETL
2025-11-13 19:00:03FORECAST20265413429.42627.42828.42710.0169342494530.0232283590.7232283593.884.603228359TF-2.574114.42639312.012985371363.12541355944030.213696990045681614133227WETL
2025-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20265413426.47422.47824.47610.6867019784830.0783464990.7783464993.784.558346499TF-5.526111.47439312.498925768063.33958288827940.127670793772781614133227WETL
2025-11-13 11:00:03FORECAST20265413425.46619.38222.42410.8128834282700.773.864.63TF-6.53497.46639312.590382407453.38000336577010.104748362590271614133227WETL
2025-11-13 07:00:05FORECAST20265413425.46619.38222.42411.20343479073200.774.335.1TF-6.53496.46639312.873269344353.50525527086260.104748362590271614133227WETL
2025-11-13 03:00:05FORECAST20265413418.96818.75218.8612.44936952796500.784.765.54TF-13.03283.96839313.773860304323.90628673514460.0220118255739251614133227WETL