Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 22, 2025

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DAY 53 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/23/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.28°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.83°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.06°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.570 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 168 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.12 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.60 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.72 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 40 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 305.76 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 133 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-23 07:00:03	OBSERVATION	2026	53	133	38.28002	33.83006	36.05504	0	0	0.12	7.6	7.72	T	T	6.28002	168.28002	40	305.75808571994	0	0.56959427645202	16	3	4	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2025-11-23 03:00:03	OBSERVATION	2026	53	133	38.28002	33.83006	36.05504	0	0	0.12	7.6	7.72	T	T	6.28002	168.28002	40	305.75808571994	0	0.56959427645202	16	3	4	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2025-11-22 11:00:01	FORECAST	2026	53	133	35.888	31.658	33.773	0.8401984	0	0.12	7.6	7.72	T	T	3.888	165.888	40	306.38088213657	0.25742072696173	0.47100016337391	16	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	H
2025-11-22 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	53	133	36.374	30.902	33.638	0.5929491	0	0.12	7.6	7.72	T	T	4.374	166.374	40	306.19774677639	0.18155967837309	0.49108491952122	16	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	H
2025-11-22 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	53	133	36.5	30.29	33.395	0.5644131	0	0.12	7.6	7.72	T	T	4.5	166.5	40	306.17660301077	0.17281008565278	0.49629783075583	16	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	H
2025-11-21 23:00:01	FORECAST	2026	53	133	37.076	30.902	33.989	0.83505754221316	0.010629927	0.130629927	7.6	7.730629927	T	T	5.076	166.076	40	306.37707551956	0.25584248767382	0.52012283817584	16	3	4	1	2	4	2	32	WET	H
2025-11-21 19:00:01	FORECAST	2026	53	133	36.95	31.658	34.304	0.8014288	0	0.12	7.6	7.72	T	T	4.95	165.95	40	306.35217344088	0.24551945473812	0.51491430266875	16	3	4	1	2	4	2	32	WET	H
2025-11-21 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	37.562	31.784	34.673	0.7493752	0	0.12	7.6	7.72	T	T	5.562	166.562	40	306.31362356306	0.22954383292029	0.54017284508945	16	3	4	1	2	4	2	32	WET	H
2025-11-21 11:00:01	FORECAST	2026	53	133	37.796	31.748	34.772	0.6597328	0	0.12	7.6	7.72	T	T	5.796	166.796	40	306.24722420748	0.20204133871863	0.54979338893366	16	3	4	1	2	4	2	32	WET	H
2025-11-21 07:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	37.094	31.388	34.241	0.49433530721378	0.012598432	0.132598432	7.6	7.732598432	T	T	5.094	167.094	40	306.12467232645	0.15132823394022	0.52086665506672	16	3	4	1	2	4	2	32	WET	H
2025-11-21 03:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	36.95	31.244	34.097	0.50760700839672	0.011417329	0.131417329	7.6	7.731417329	T	T	4.95	166.95	40	306.13450794227	0.15539602174358	0.51491430266875	16	3	4	1	2	4	2	32	WET	H
2025-11-20 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	37.652	31.316	34.484	0	0	0.13	7.6	7.73	T	T	5.652	160.652	40	305.75808571994	0	0.54387615116089	16	3	4	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2025-11-20 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	37.994	29.894	33.944	0	0	0.13	7.6	7.73	T	T	5.994	159.994	40	305.75808571994	0	0.55791128683314	16	3	4	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2025-11-20 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	38.552	30.164	34.358	0	0	0.13	7.6	7.73	T	T	6.552	160.552	40	305.75808571994	0	0.58064771590554	16	3	4	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2025-11-20 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	38.642	30.506	34.574	0.020635260760771	0	0.13	7.6	7.73	T	T	6.642	160.642	40	305.7733975171	0.0063097137914723	0.58429185201878	16	3	4	1	2	5	2	40	WET	H
2025-11-20 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	53	133	38.066	30.686	34.376	0.22748526746885	0	0.17	7.6	7.77	T	T	6.066	161.066	40	305.92684023404	0.06959384907654	0.56085741390656	16	3	4	1	2	4	2	32	WET	H
2025-11-20 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	53	133	37.85	31.55	34.7	0.079366716600178	0	0.12	7.6	7.72	T	T	5.85	160.85	40	305.81697309922	0.02427168903549	0.55200957439809	16	3	4	1	2	4	2	32	WET	H
2025-11-19 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	53	133	38.066	33.332	35.699	0.2793420297936	0	0.2	7.6	7.8	T	T	6.066	158.066	40	305.9652952896	0.085468966632593	0.56085741390656	16	3	4	1	2	4	2	32	WET	H
2025-11-19 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	37.22	33.008	35.114	0.12333860735515	0	0.16	7.6	7.76	T	T	5.22	159.22	40	305.84959362261	0.037723062937551	0.52607119405694	16	3	4	1	2	4	2	32	WET	H
2025-11-19 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	37.4	33.044	35.222	0.15488070819977	0	0.17	7.6	7.77	T	T	5.4	159.4	40	305.8729908691	0.047373825444988	0.53349831826345	16	3	4	1	2	4	2	32	WET	H
2025-11-19 11:00:01	FORECAST	2026	53	133	34.79	32.378	33.584	0.39121827733672	0.046850419	0.186850419	7.6	7.786850419	T	T	2.79	154.79	40	306.04824132443	0.11973166575287	0.42597178966166	16	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	H
2025-11-19 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	53	133	35.366	31.586	33.476	0.58761484233134	0.051968532	0.231968532	7.6	7.831968532	T	T	3.366	157.366	40	306.19379447156	0.17992401826124	0.44951091255394	16	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	H
2025-11-19 03:00:07	FORECAST	2026	53	133	35.024	32.108	33.566	0.58653852835367	0.051968532	0.231968532	7.6	7.831968532	T	T	3.024	158.024	40	306.1929969931	0.17959398984854	0.43550766577042	16	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	WET	H
2025-11-18 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	34.034	32.126	33.08	2.2562917442128	0.465354582	0.655354582	7.29	7.945354582	T	T	2.034	157.034	40	307.42755706517	0.69364625894966	0.39548520687421	16	2	4	1	3	4	2	42	WET	H
2025-11-18 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	34.268	32.432	33.35	2.5729894984782	0.473622303	0.713622303	7.31	8.023622303	T	T	2.268	157.268	40	307.66112271574	0.79160883783759	0.40486265467747	16	2	4	1	3	4	2	42	WET	H
2025-11-18 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	33.746	31.946	32.846	2.7994053158598	0.475197107	0.745197107	7.32	8.065197107	T	T	1.746	155.746	40	307.82798999726	0.86173531156879	0.38402678909607	16	2	4	1	3	4	2	42	WET	H
2025-11-18 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	35.15	32.666	33.908	0	0.249606434	0.349606434	7.27	7.619606434	T	T	3.15	159.15	40	305.75808571994	0	0.44065831125411	16	2	4	1	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2025-11-18 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	53	133	35.708	31.964	33.836	0	0.249606434	0.309606434	7.28	7.589606434	T	T	3.708	162.708	40	305.75808571994	0	0.46357732312039	16	2	4	1	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2025-11-18 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	53	133	36.464	30.956	33.71	0	0.250000135	0.250000135	7.27	7.520000135	T	T	4.464	163.464	40	305.75808571994	0	0.49480832409959	16	2	4	1	2	5	2	35	WET	H
2025-11-17 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	35.762	31.784	33.773	0	0.761811435	0.831811435	7.24	8.071811435	T	T	3.762	159.762	40	305.75808571994	0	0.46580296276322	16	2	4	1	3	5	2	52.5	WET	H
2025-11-17 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	37.004	31.46	34.232	0	0.804331143	0.804331143	7.24	8.044331143	T	T	5.004	167.004	40	305.75808571994	0	0.51714689570983	16	3	4	1	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2025-11-17 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	37.382	31.73	34.556	0	0.805118545	0.805118545	7.24	8.045118545	T	T	5.382	169.382	40	305.75808571994	0	0.53275608757176	16	3	4	1	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2025-11-17 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	38.264	31.622	34.943	0	0.68897675	0.73897675	7.24	7.97897675	T	T	6.264	170.264	40	305.75808571994	0	0.56894142098612	16	3	4	1	3	5	2	60	WET	H
2025-11-17 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	53	133	36.752	31.388	34.07	2.1822856224632	0.68897675	0.72897675	7.26	7.98897675	T	T	4.752	168.752	40	307.37295021596	0.67077556999038	0.50672465958918	16	3	4	1	3	4	2	48	WET	H
2025-11-17 03:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	36.086	31.496	33.791	2.2720095340606	0.713779913	0.753779913	7.26	8.013779913	T	T	4.086	166.086	40	307.43915341912	0.69850468771176	0.47917684102179	16	2	4	1	3	4	2	42	WET	H
2025-11-16 23:00:06	FORECAST	2026	53	133	35.366	30.884	33.125	10.216574088196	1.89370181	3.21370181	7.38	10.59370181	T	T	3.366	159.366	40	313.24167715865	3.2002568022021	0.44951091255394	16	2	4	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	H
2025-11-16 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	34.7	30.578	32.639	10.250342975476	1.89370181	3.25370181	7.35	10.60370181	T	T	2.7	160.7	40	313.2660921024	3.2110848866367	0.42231532368593	16	2	4	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	H
2025-11-16 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	34.43	30.47	32.45	12.925556680246	1.890945903	3.250945903	7.38	10.630945903	T	T	2.43	160.43	40	315.1936354055	4.0740531996865	0.41138723530761	16	2	4	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	H
2025-11-16 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	32.954	29.102	31.028	8.5013628214846	1.146851013	1.986851013	7.32	9.306851013	T	T	0.954	159.954	40	311.99881891083	2.6524151594357	0.35306150500269	16	2	4	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	L
2025-11-16 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	53	133	32.648	26.24	29.444	8.9181073819106	1.146851013	1.986851013	7.35	9.336851013	T	T	0.648	157.648	40	312.30129410845	2.7851364763688	0.34134075656635	16	2	4	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	L
2025-11-16 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	53	133	33.8	28.202	31.001	8.21358920088	1.14960692	1.85960692	7.35	9.20960692	T	T	1.8	159.8	40	311.78976447873	2.5609130424675	0.38616787042544	16	2	4	1	5	3	2	52.5	WET	L
2025-11-15 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	53	133	32.846	28.22	30.533	7.1703789218023	0.635827115	1.485827115	7.29	8.775827115	T	T	0.846	151.846	40	311.03063740069	2.2302075264527	0.3489081449155	16	2	4	1	4	4	2	56	WET	L
2025-11-15 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	32.648	28.724	30.686	7.4355366799554	0.635827115	1.485827115	7.33	8.815827115	T	T	0.648	148.648	40	311.22377907102	2.3141158249569	0.34134075656635	16	2	4	1	4	4	2	56	WET	L
2025-11-15 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	33.062	28.652	30.857	7.4653201663924	0.632283806	1.482283806	7.34	8.822283806	T	T	1.062	149.062	40	311.24546532277	2.3235470489723	0.35723243602215	16	2	4	1	4	4	2	56	WET	L
2025-11-15 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	35.24	29.93	32.585	4.5397641163501	0.435827007	1.005827007	7.42	8.425827007	T	T	3.24	148.24	40	309.10742664518	1.4032748035811	0.44434355221165	16	2	4	1	4	4	2	56	WET	H
2025-11-15 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	53	133	34.628	27.284	30.956	5.3912707805939	0.455905758	1.035905758	7.42	8.455905758	T	T	2.628	144.628	40	309.73136002602	1.6698456311419	0.41939494716102	16	2	4	1	4	4	2	56	WET	L
2025-11-15 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	53	133	33.89	27.302	30.596	5.6229029755067	0.45669316	1.03669316	7.53	8.56669316	T	T	1.89	140.89	40	309.90085296274	1.7425424282363	0.38974402266639	16	2	4	1	4	4	2	56	WET	L
2025-11-14 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	35.546	28.472	32.009	5.4434301368892	0.288582833	0.588582833	6.88	7.468582833	T	T	3.546	137.546	40	309.76953545168	1.6862088247679	0.45690751661383	16	2	4	1	3	4	2	42	WET	H
2025-11-14 19:00:04	FORECAST	2026	53	133	35.654	28.472	32.063	5.3085678659106	0.288582833	0.588582833	6.79	7.378582833	T	T	3.654	143.654	40	309.67081940593	1.6439085609085	0.46135282279812	16	2	4	1	3	4	2	42	WET	H
2025-11-14 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	33.746	27.464	30.605	5.5566304993411	0.288582833	0.588582833	6.85	7.438582833	T	T	1.746	136.746	40	309.852369384	1.7217351260123	0.38393859492432	16	2	4	1	3	4	2	42	WET	L
2025-11-14 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	36.122	30.974	33.548	3.5091968552885	0	0.29	1.91	2.2	F	F	4.122	144.122	40	308.35048113646	1.0820625387308	0.48006849102951	16	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2025-11-14 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	53	133	36.122	30.974	33.548	2.7626800346806	0	0.29	2.1	2.39	F	F	4.122	152.122	40	307.80093017582	0.85035548445285	0.48006849102951	16	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2025-11-14 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	53	133	35.366	29.93	32.648	1.8343367724285	0	0.17	1.66	1.83	F	F	3.366	149.366	40	307.11607179507	0.5633543038975	0.4490782318428	16	2	4	1	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2025-11-13 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	34.898	27.716	31.307	9.6670252534422	0.698425574	0.748425574	3.6	4.348425574	T	F	2.898	126.898	40	312.84405824419	3.0242714114359	0.43003630012206	16	2	4	1	3	3	2	31.5	WET	L
2025-11-13 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	34.898	27.716	31.307	9.794234671442	0.698425574	0.748425574	3.83	4.578425574	T	F	2.898	124.898	40	312.93614833882	3.0649700740076	0.43003630012206	16	2	4	1	3	3	2	31.5	WET	L
2025-11-13 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	32.702	26.168	29.435	9.8046320661186	0.700394079	0.750394079	3.73	4.480394079	T	F	0.702	124.702	40	312.9436739588	3.0682975805854	0.34351795236198	16	2	4	1	3	3	2	31.5	WET	L
2025-11-13 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	30.722	22.046	26.384	10.81288342827	0.747638199	0.767638199	3.86	4.627638199	T	F	-1.278	111.722	40	313.67250162564	3.3917041947318	0.27185822748802	16	2	4	1	3	3	2	31.5	WET	L
2025-11-13 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	53	133	30.722	22.046	26.384	11.203434790732	0.747638199	0.767638199	4.33	5.097638199	T	F	-1.278	110.722	40	313.95431563204	3.5173667024524	0.27185822748802	16	2	4	1	3	3	2	31.5	WET	L
2025-11-13 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	53	133	29.552	19.202	24.377	12.449369527965	0.761811435	0.791811435	4.75	5.541811435	T	F	-2.448	104.552	40	314.85149084039	3.9197025559028	0.23332161216828	16	1	4	1	3	3	2	27	WET	L
2025-11-12 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	30.956	21.182	26.069	17.671690072395	0.146850473	0.896850473	4.43	5.326850473	T	F	-1.044	98.956	40	318.58125100125	5.6298691305699	0.27992835803799	16	2	4	1	3	2	2	21	WET	L
2025-11-12 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	30.956	21.182	26.069	16.800827054213	0.146850473	0.896850473	3.78	4.676850473	T	F	-1.044	98.956	40	317.9627162998	5.3420366062409	0.27992835803799	16	2	4	1	3	2	2	21	WET	L
2025-11-12 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	53	133	29.678	20.516	25.097	24.083770004632	0.368504136	1.698504136	3.46	5.158504136	T	F	-2.322	94.678	40	323.09358173659	7.7813115125169	0.23732085845649	16	1	4	1	5	2	2	30	WET	L
2025-11-12 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	53	133	33.08	29.948	31.514	10.964466619604	0	0.36	3.49	3.85	T	F	1.08	108.08	40	313.78191420382	3.4404513241233	0.35797545000359	16	2	4	1	2	3	2	21	DRY	L
2025-11-12 07:00:07	FORECAST	2026	53	133	33.08	29.948	31.514	10.62722808947	0	0.36	3.52	3.88	T	F	1.08	105.08	40	313.53843840302	3.3320444997252	0.35797545000359	16	2	4	1	2	3	2	21	DRY	L
2025-11-12 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	53	133	24.638	24.602	24.62	16.006605511855	0.07480319	0.78480319	3.43	4.21480319	T	F	-7.362	93.638	40	317.39742245955	5.0804553317895	0.10834147217034	16	1	4	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L