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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 21, 2025

[ Thursday, November 20, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 22, 2025 ]

DAY 52 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/22/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.21°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.61°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.91°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.464
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 168

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.88 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 1 in
SWE DAY: 41
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 307.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.23 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 132

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 28.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-22 07:00:03OBSERVATION20265213236.2100227.6099831.910.738187500.127.888TT4.21002168.2100241307.41129457405 0.226927175013380.4643893669186716 24124228WETL
2025-11-22 03:00:03OBSERVATION20265213236.2100227.6099831.910.738187500.127.888TT4.21002168.2100241307.41129457405 0.226927175013380.4643893669186716 24124228WETL
2025-11-21 11:00:01FORECAST20265213234.7922.94628.8680.90504400.127.888TT2.79166.7941307.534382107840.278332147320410.411071883418451624124228WETL
2025-11-21 07:00:03FORECAST20265213235.74422.7329.2370.6953686166666700.127.888TT3.744167.74441307.379699314880.213742196304010.446772793210061624124228WETL
2025-11-21 03:00:03FORECAST20265213235.6923.37829.5340.6920230166666700.127.888TT3.69167.6941307.377230514010.212712118314950.444737577793871624124228WETL
2025-11-20 23:00:02FORECAST20265213235.7622329.381000.137.888.01TT3.762160.76241306.8661183987900.447451512694421624125235WETL
2025-11-20 19:00:01FORECAST20265213235.36623.39629.381000.137.888.01TT3.366160.36641306.8661183987900.432558700242721624125235WETL
2025-11-20 15:00:01FORECAST20265213235.34824.81830.083000.137.888.01TT3.348160.34841306.8661183987900.431883860824111624125235WETL
2025-11-20 11:00:02FORECAST20265213235.1524.78229.9660.3492912607607700.137.888.01TT3.15160.1541307.124209095080.107275802204970.424474163910761624124228WETL
2025-11-20 07:00:04FORECAST20265213234.66424.56629.6150.5171748674688500.177.888.05TT2.664160.66441307.248176542670.15890103498350.406404654459151624124228WETL
2025-11-20 03:00:04FORECAST20265213234.55624.63829.5970.3624635166001800.127.888TT2.556160.55641307.133937572030.111324847079620.402414700104651624124228WETL
2025-11-19 23:00:03FORECAST20265213234.0724.02629.0480.651786029793600.27.888.08TT2.07158.0741307.347537004080.200324830910730.384591037244361624124228WETL
2025-11-19 19:00:02FORECAST20265213234.8823.84629.3630.4645898073551500.167.888.04TT2.88159.8841307.209352733190.142726334004010.414413382130611624124228WETL
2025-11-19 15:00:02FORECAST20265213234.62824.54829.5880.5113839081997700.177.888.05TT2.628159.62841307.243901302940.157119587018840.40507356772241624124228WETL
2025-11-19 11:00:01FORECAST20265213234.03424.67429.3540.4665172214897700.147.888.02TT2.034158.03441307.210775844120.143319117558510.383279912252771624124228WETL
2025-11-19 07:00:04FORECAST20265213234.0726.31230.1910.5936859111555600.187.888.06TT2.07160.0741307.304655763340.182442444559210.384591037244361624124228WETL
2025-11-19 03:00:07FORECAST20265213235.11426.8730.9920.5600324492891200.187.888.06TT3.114161.11441307.279814671740.172086667227720.423129728981391624124228WETL
2025-11-18 23:00:02FORECAST20265213234.91627.39231.1540.655883933574040.031496080.211496087.557.76149608TT2.916160.91641307.350561254670.20158629510190.415751732091971624124228WETL
2025-11-18 19:00:03FORECAST20265213234.2527.1430.6950.957274495090080.0330708840.2830708847.557.833070884TT2.25161.2541307.572901040270.294431693546710.391166193723961624124228WETL
2025-11-18 15:00:02FORECAST20265213233.7127.64430.6771.10840580022070.0622047580.3222047587.557.872204758TT1.71159.7141307.684328535860.341039094386140.371541541753661624124228WETL
2025-11-18 11:00:02FORECAST20265213234.37628.45431.4150.1989701037512800.17.557.65TT2.376162.37641307.013165123830.0610864413176970.395787500610531624124228WETL
2025-11-18 07:00:05FORECAST20265213235.70829.40832.5580.01511954504775600.077.557.62TT3.708164.70841306.877294945880.00463984508506760.445415823798091624115217.5WETH
2025-11-18 03:00:05FORECAST20265213235.27628.36431.820007.557.55TT3.276165.27641306.8661183987900.429186509307951624115217.5WETL
2025-11-17 23:00:03FORECAST20265213235.20428.68831.9460.09264683061784700.077.527.59TT3.204162.20441306.934597292640.0284365176461290.426492459985011624114214WETL
2025-11-17 19:00:02FORECAST20265213235.54629.0332.2880007.527.52TT3.546167.54641306.8661183987900.439317596981761624115217.5WETH
2025-11-17 15:00:02FORECAST20265213237.1329.0333.080007.527.52TT5.13170.1341306.8661183987900.499339281090481634115220WETH
2025-11-17 11:00:02FORECAST20265213237.0429.01233.026000.057.527.57TT5.04170.0441306.8661183987900.495915625319271624115217.5WETH
2025-11-17 07:00:04FORECAST20265213236.84228.56232.702000.047.547.58TT4.842169.84241306.8661183987900.488384996355441624115217.5WETH
2025-11-17 03:00:03FORECAST20265213236.51828.34632.432000.047.547.58TT4.518167.51841306.8661183987900.476072302436171624115217.5WETH
2025-11-16 23:00:06FORECAST20265213235.85230.23633.0445.49664091009910.8846461471.3246461477.668.984646147TT3.852161.85241310.901145603591.70891195592140.450847379307981624144256WETH
2025-11-16 19:00:03FORECAST20265213236.78829.94833.3685.37522241987780.8846461471.3646461477.638.994646147TT4.788163.78841310.812620655921.67068696693070.486331793965051624144256WETH
2025-11-16 15:00:02FORECAST20265213236.35630.41633.3865.06424351996560.881890241.361890247.669.02189024TT4.356164.35641310.585764654271.57288194604390.469923777129331624144256WETH
2025-11-16 11:00:02FORECAST20265213236.0530.54233.2963.13182943519940.8437012430.8437012437.68.443701243TT4.05165.0541309.17206444680.968274171975880.458330615584041624134242WETH
2025-11-16 07:00:06FORECAST20265213235.07829.33632.2073.32898605142480.8437012430.8437012437.638.473701243TT3.078163.07841309.316616791351.02971070277230.421786188479411624134242WETH
2025-11-16 03:00:04FORECAST20265213235.97829.01232.4952.67807192488670.7118114080.7118114087.638.341811408TT3.978163.97841308.839100934350.827093325519520.455607587812141624134242WETH
2025-11-15 23:00:04FORECAST20265213233.9828.45431.2173.79338498402910.7527563120.8527563127.578.422756312TT1.98156.9841309.656821354231.17464753632730.381315732443611624134242WETL
2025-11-15 19:00:02FORECAST20265213233.18828.29230.744.13795405158990.7527563120.8527563127.618.462756312TT1.188154.18841309.908982987091.28238913177550.352882576583591624134242WETL
2025-11-15 15:00:02FORECAST20265213233.85428.7631.3074.12598624374210.7531500130.8531500137.628.473150013TT1.854153.85441309.90022843631.27864407946070.376744593794581624134242WETL
2025-11-15 11:00:02FORECAST20265213234.37626.630.4882.74880480984320.330708840.570708847.78.27070884TT2.376151.37641308.891029392180.849081147310660.395787500610531624134242WETL
2025-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20265213234.1624.24229.2013.08707027593880.3460631790.5760631797.78.276063179TT2.16148.1641309.139237602910.954334551530320.38787459814181624134242WETL
2025-11-15 03:00:04FORECAST20265213233.49424.02628.763.18323385769880.3476379830.5776379837.818.387637983TT1.494145.49441309.20976039350.984286978415540.363781026426891624134242WETL
2025-11-14 23:00:02FORECAST20265213234.39425.0729.7323.891499743603700.437.037.46TT2.394140.39441309.728645915941.20530894616860.396448901185061624124228WETL
2025-11-14 19:00:03FORECAST20265213234.48425.55630.023.790457604284800.436.947.37TT2.484146.48441309.654678101261.17373292931130.399760338404911624124228WETL
2025-11-14 15:00:03FORECAST20265213233.87224.54829.213.893805827487800.4377.43TT1.872140.87241309.730333861171.20602977893840.375896134807261624124228WETL
2025-11-14 11:00:02FORECAST20265213237.2229.96633.5933.707669655288500.31.92.2FF5.22146.2241309.594059100881.14787249838590.500677169183271634124232DRYL
2025-11-14 07:00:05FORECAST20265213239.68631.51435.62.961152834680600.32.092.39FF7.686153.68641309.046868390970.915135010385090.593246443945611634124232DRYL
2025-11-14 03:00:05FORECAST20265213237.74229.24633.4941.940116772428500.171.661.83FF5.742151.74241308.296775315120.598131744674490.520446396715971634124232DRYL
2025-11-13 23:00:02FORECAST20265213235.45626.83431.1455.057966271601300.053.63.65FF3.456130.45641310.5811836191.57090915133890.43414253520791624114214DRYL
2025-11-13 19:00:03FORECAST20265213235.45626.5130.9835.185175689601100.053.833.88TF3.456128.45641310.674004757291.61089929685850.43414253520791624114214DRYL
2025-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20265213235.67227.64431.6584.828535178809200.053.733.78TF3.672129.67241310.413698352451.49884346247910.442228027278641624114214DRYL
2025-11-13 11:00:03FORECAST20265213229.2121.3825.2955.17039722634760.0153543390.3353543393.543.875354339TF-2.79119.2141310.663222867541.60625226584250.223899269252531614124224DRYL
2025-11-13 07:00:04FORECAST20265213229.2121.50625.3585.56094858880980.0153543390.3353543394.014.345354339TF-2.79118.2141310.948020599681.7291659563470.223899269252531614124224WETL
2025-11-13 03:00:05FORECAST20265213228.41822.89225.6556.33902165034540.0153543390.3153543394.464.775354339TF-3.582113.41841311.514565379491.97469757433850.202046124505381614124224WETL
2025-11-12 23:00:03FORECAST20265213231.17224.11627.64416.4159092361330.7074806971.6174806973.565.177480697TF-0.828106.17241318.751671881015.23259851446420.283417787712221624152235WETL
2025-11-12 19:00:02FORECAST20265213231.17224.11627.64415.5450462179510.7074806971.6174806972.914.527480697TF-0.828106.17241318.133514566434.94540018741450.283417787712221624153252.5WETL
2025-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20265213229.82223.73826.7820.1420121897230.9795280882.1595280882.634.789528088TF-2.178102.82241321.381153093136.47326310314910.241666463601721614152230WETL
2025-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST20265213233.22427.46430.34410.9849338196040.251968640.8519686433.85196864TF1.224113.22441314.874228148123.45887255770590.352781725618391624133231.5DRYL
2025-11-12 07:00:07FORECAST20265213233.22427.46430.34410.647695289470.251968640.851968643.033.88196864TF1.224110.22441314.631688408853.3501023465890.352781725618391624133231.5DRYL
2025-11-12 03:00:05FORECAST20265213229.82220.9325.37615.1605826091170.5964570151.1964570152.944.136457015TF-2.178106.82241317.86017864394.81894549647960.241666463601721614143236WETL
2025-11-11 23:00:03FORECAST20265213231.11826.9629.03926.0699859836330.0519685322.0519685323.895.941968532TT-0.88295.11841325.513523414668.48613299290320.28168363725321624152235WETL
2025-11-11 19:00:04FORECAST20265213231.11826.9629.03926.7908005072620.0519685322.0519685324.096.141968532TT-0.88297.11841326.011771088448.73411632224950.28168363725321624152235WETL
2025-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20265213229.19227.37428.28325.4966131683860.0519685322.0619685323.956.011968532TT-2.80899.19241325.116539745558.28937064853660.223388172271221614152230WETL
2025-11-11 11:00:03FORECAST20265213233.67432.77433.22420.1552931769530.5476380911.5576380913.24.757638091TF1.674112.67441321.390480941726.47771936766220.36878157818131624152235WETL
2025-11-11 07:00:06FORECAST20265213233.67432.77433.22420.3187409140970.5476380911.5576380913.084.637638091TF1.674111.67441321.505252048226.53258191888940.36878157818131624152235WETL
2025-11-11 03:00:04FORECAST20265213235.3334.82635.07816.295342466310.0850394160.9250394163.274.195039416TF3.33117.3341318.666172518995.19277441362520.429438466342581624132221WETL