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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 20, 2025

[ Wednesday, November 19, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, November 21, 2025 ]

DAY 51 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/21/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.34°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.498
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 167

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.45 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 1 in
SWE DAY: 42
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 308.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.25 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 131

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 28.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-21 07:00:03OBSERVATION20265113136.0100428.6732.340020.808725416666670.120.458.248.69TT4.01004167.0100442308.56490072611 0.249544277908430.4980659512459116 24124228WETH
2025-11-21 03:00:02OBSERVATION20265113136.0100428.6732.340020.808725416666670.120.458.248.69TT4.01004167.0100442308.56490072611 0.249544277908430.4980659512459116 24124228WETH
2025-11-20 11:00:01FORECAST20265113129.19225.23227.2120.427519260760770.129921330.459921338.248.69992133TT-2.808160.19242308.284612396260.131797609595570.223369788919131614124224WETL
2025-11-20 07:00:04FORECAST20265113130.30825.32227.8150.581626867468850.173228440.503228448.248.74322844TT-1.692161.30842308.397955324710.179372536689310.262030949481181624134242WETL
2025-11-20 03:00:04FORECAST20265113130.03824.76427.4010.419437116600180.1228347120.4528347128.248.692834712TT-1.962161.03842308.278666923420.12930351516370.252373817201321624124228WETL
2025-11-19 23:00:01FORECAST20265113130.1124.06227.0860.72519242979360.2043308190.5343308198.248.774330819TT-1.89159.1142308.503504889420.22372440631060.254930605614461624134242WETL
2025-11-19 19:00:01FORECAST20265113130.54224.38627.4640.556495407355150.1559055960.4859055968.248.725905596TT-1.458159.54242308.379474687780.171611761386340.270550877491881624124228WETL
2025-11-19 15:00:01FORECAST20265113130.57825.2527.9140.611653508199770.1744095430.5044095438.248.744409543TT-1.422159.57842308.420034128420.188646195873740.271873798173331624134242WETL
2025-11-19 11:00:01FORECAST20265113129.96624.4427.2030.511584421489770.1421260610.4721260618.248.712126061TT-2.034158.96642308.346446067330.157745238229780.249830590334971624124228WETL
2025-11-19 07:00:04FORECAST20265113130.32625.71828.0220.641409911155560.1787402540.5087402548.248.748740254TT-1.674161.32642308.441912563190.197837699733810.262681418882711624134242WETL
2025-11-19 03:00:07FORECAST20265113130.2925.57427.9320.666107649289120.1834646660.5134646668.248.753464666TT-1.71161.2942308.460070352150.205467612361830.2613813056451624134242WETL
2025-11-18 23:00:02FORECAST20265113130.52426.0628.2920.698209958790840.1645670180.1845670188.248.424567018TT-1.476160.52442308.483670283090.2153863707160.269890623692921624124228WETL
2025-11-18 19:00:02FORECAST20265113131.58625.35828.4720.943209941741240.2133859420.2533859428.248.493385942TT-0.414161.58642308.663718024880.291134687495880.310165450239671624124228WETL
2025-11-18 15:00:02FORECAST20265113131.26225.2528.2560.995379053219440.2078741280.2578741288.248.497874128TT-0.738161.26242308.702042053260.307275546345880.297602644298851624124228WETL
2025-11-18 11:00:01FORECAST20265113132.97227.7730.3710.345192503751280.0996063530.0996063538.248.339606353TT0.972162.97242308.224044600890.106396629672130.366288288776321624124228WETL
2025-11-18 07:00:04FORECAST20265113133.65628.34631.0010.202177945047760.0574803460.0674803468.248.307480346TT1.656163.65642308.118798673910.0622948255464740.395173877178461624114214WETL
2025-11-18 03:00:05FORECAST20265113133.72828.77831.2530008.248.24TT1.728164.72842307.9699485433200.398251372279161624115217.5WETL
2025-11-17 23:00:02FORECAST20265113133.27828.52630.9020.220665230617850.0653543660.0653543668.218.275354366TT1.278162.27842308.132405814690.0679941083899310.379128236670681624114214WETL
2025-11-17 19:00:02FORECAST20265113136.12229.76832.9450008.218.21TT4.122167.12242307.9699485433200.503018337245661634115220WETH
2025-11-17 15:00:02FORECAST20265113135.79829.62432.7110008.218.21TT3.798167.79842307.9699485433200.488688113316281624115217.5WETH
2025-11-17 11:00:02FORECAST20265113137.11230.36233.73700.0456693160.0456693168.218.255669316TT5.112168.11242307.9699485433200.546702696193061634115220WETH
2025-11-17 07:00:04FORECAST20265113138.15628.81433.48500.0350393890.0350393898.238.265039389TT6.156168.15642307.9699485433200.592154846135831634115220WETH
2025-11-17 03:00:03FORECAST20265113135.9628.79632.3780.0269150615609270.0350393890.0350393898.238.265039389TT3.96165.9642307.989768718180.00828956358518570.495852556292161624115217.5WETH
2025-11-16 23:00:06FORECAST20265113132.93628.81430.8752.00872776890120.4413388210.4413388218.358.791338821TT0.936160.93642309.445453191070.621591674785110.364787181335821624124228WETL
2025-11-16 19:00:03FORECAST20265113133.06228.45430.7582.1043898603050.4811026220.4811026228.328.801102622TT1.062162.06242309.515533856230.651341351053950.370049970814121624124228WETL
2025-11-16 15:00:02FORECAST20265113133.27828.83231.0552.14323346551380.4818900240.5518900248.288.831890024TT1.278163.27842309.543985259230.663425028256080.379128236670681624134242WETL
2025-11-16 11:00:01FORECAST20265113134.14229.62431.8830.09319074366260800.048.258.29TT2.142164.14242308.038568166360.0287063432441880.416064335851771624114214WETL
2025-11-16 07:00:05FORECAST20265113133.60229.17431.3880.1509185100813100.048.288.32TT1.602162.60242308.081067005210.0464951356166860.392870026657861624114214WETL
2025-11-16 03:00:04FORECAST20265113133.58428.86831.226000.018.318.32TT1.584162.58442307.9699485433200.392102905113181624115217.5WETL
2025-11-15 23:00:03FORECAST20265113131.74828.63430.1910.449447418338810.098425250.118425258.248.35842525TT-0.252157.74842308.300742805960.138564972926080.316532140596071624124228WETL
2025-11-15 19:00:02FORECAST20265113131.94628.25630.1010.60895995229050.098425250.148425258.258.39842525TT-0.053999999999998155.94642308.418053606240.187814243209580.324387894284041624124228WETL
2025-11-15 15:00:02FORECAST20265113131.71228.1329.9210.651415920778920.098425250.118425258.298.40842525TT-0.288154.71242308.449269123540.200928764659690.315112529814231624124228WETL
2025-11-15 11:00:02FORECAST20265113130.7426.29428.5171.20582590124270.2389765070.2389765078.398.628976507TT-1.26151.7442308.85658717340.372427272583110.277866426657881624124228WETL
2025-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20265113129.89424.69227.2931.36072314729740.2342520950.2342520958.398.624252095TT-2.106148.89442308.970285757950.420423019657920.247301013836191614124224WETL
2025-11-15 03:00:04FORECAST20265113129.4824.47626.9781.37908860447740.2267717760.2267717768.58.726771776TT-2.52147.4842308.983763512380.426115987228450.233025061499861614124224WETL
2025-11-14 23:00:02FORECAST20265113129.325.2527.2753.94709574360370.303149770.433149777.728.15314977TT-2.7141.342310.862155675521.22700269151430.226963621689261614124224WETL
2025-11-14 19:00:03FORECAST20265113130.05625.53827.7973.85294160428480.303149770.433149777.638.06314977TT-1.944147.05642310.793501931511.19746921393330.253011746427641624124228WETL
2025-11-14 15:00:02FORECAST20265113129.40825.73627.5723.93464182748780.303149770.433149777.698.12314977TT-2.592142.40842310.853075679011.22309551376980.229040481413861614124224WETL
2025-11-14 11:00:02FORECAST20265113132.25227.26629.7593.99253765528850.291338740.371338741.832.20133874FF0.252144.25242310.895284376451.24126112972460.334483421732851624124228DRYL
2025-11-14 07:00:04FORECAST20265113134.1628.61631.3883.40946323468060.291338740.371338742.022.39133874FF2.16149.1642310.469912889681.05853575347180.414247476780421624124228DRYL
2025-11-14 03:00:05FORECAST20265113134.14228.61631.3792.19802317242850.1688977290.2388977291.591.828897729FF2.142149.14242309.584111778550.680473051504950.413472190341041624124228DRYL
2025-11-13 23:00:02FORECAST20265113130.2924.24227.2665.16148307160130.047244120.047244123.63.64724412FF-1.71130.2942311.746172387311.60907259141360.259630498736351624114214DRYL
2025-11-13 19:00:03FORECAST20265113128.25623.25225.7545.28987328960110.047244120.047244123.833.87724412TF-3.744128.25642311.839475127821.64959131012190.192311482954371614114212DRYL
2025-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20265113129.17424.1726.6724.93647997880920.047244120.047244123.733.77724412TF-2.826129.17442311.582586486031.53812119993390.221277302017321614114212DRYL
2025-11-13 11:00:03FORECAST20265113126.11421.03823.5765.058560178062600.323.543.86TF-5.886125.11442311.671355087181.57660830548680.134280157172221614124224DRYL
2025-11-13 07:00:04FORECAST20265113126.00621.41623.7115.449111540524800.324.014.33TF-5.994124.00642311.955153247561.69987842568750.131711646505281614124224WETL
2025-11-13 03:00:04FORECAST20265113126.1522.47824.3146.22335579762770.0129921330.3029921334.464.762992133TF-5.85120.1542312.516934207621.94490407435780.135143898952161614124224WETL
2025-11-12 23:00:03FORECAST20265113126.04221.79423.91811.0581774011680.0440945120.9140945123.564.474094512TF-5.958110.04242316.000134383363.4943855448040.132564034052131614133227WETL
2025-11-12 19:00:02FORECAST20265113126.04221.79423.91810.1873143829860.0440945120.9140945122.913.824094512TF-5.958110.04242315.375883953193.21283327864320.132564034052131614133227DRYL
2025-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20265113124.67421.88423.27912.2267029656130.3460631791.1960631792.613.806063179TF-7.326107.67442316.835588220553.8738546261080.102793800188491614143236DRYL
2025-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST20265113130.95626.2428.5989.16574394642850.1078740740.6078740742.993.597874074TF-1.044114.95642314.641841579742.88392655475260.284050993424181624133231.5DRYL
2025-11-12 07:00:07FORECAST20265113130.95626.2428.5988.82850541629460.1078740740.6078740743.023.627874074TF-1.044111.95642314.399102696142.77567418103110.284050993424181624133231.5DRYL
2025-11-12 03:00:05FORECAST20265113131.22625.95228.5899.37773760824560.1082677750.5982677752.943.538267775TF-0.774112.22642314.794324815672.95205857868620.294254594685451624133231.5DRYL
2025-11-11 23:00:03FORECAST20265113127.60822.06424.83625.5810700800260.6649609892.4049609893.495.894960989TT-4.39298.60842326.20943935228.34478652883460.173330660328881614152230WETL
2025-11-11 19:00:04FORECAST20265113127.60822.06424.83626.3018846036550.6649609892.4049609893.696.094960989TT-4.392100.60842326.706414060818.59299440190140.173330660328881614152230WETL
2025-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20265113129.3923.6326.5125.009300760330.6665357932.4165357933.545.956535793TT-2.61105.3942325.814578103628.14839477589340.228437950544721614152230WETL
2025-11-11 11:00:03FORECAST20265113136.15827.98632.07215.9433867389790.5625987291.0725987293.144.212598729TF4.158114.15842319.476457156545.09353671044570.501695104145591634142232WETL
2025-11-11 07:00:06FORECAST20265113136.17626.72631.45116.1068344761240.5625987291.0725987293.024.092598729TF4.176113.17642319.592022718975.14761580982420.502488956479381634142232WETL
2025-11-11 03:00:04FORECAST20265113138.19225.8832.03615.6758812500970.4125986480.9025986483.214.112598648TF6.192117.19242319.287214114015.00510845312540.590608341397991634132224WETL
2025-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20265113137.63425.6131.62223.2796606343880.0251968640.9551968643.934.885196864TF5.634102.63442324.616599446057.55696427139320.56648119120011634132224WETL
2025-11-10 19:00:03FORECAST20265113137.63425.6131.62223.1281452165430.0251968640.9551968644.235.185196864TF5.634109.63442324.51140631817.50534692974950.56648119120011634132224WETL
2025-11-10 15:00:03FORECAST20265113129.33622.60425.9727.8806893007240.0251968640.9551968645.035.985196864TF-2.66493.33642327.791767120999.13906041443560.226635702600331614132218WETL
2025-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20265113129.22826.34827.78816.99991208699900.174.194.36TF-2.772101.22842320.222625796695.44375648681150.223055351076371614122212WETL
2025-11-10 07:00:05FORECAST20265113129.22826.34827.78821.10326874919900.174.314.48TF-2.772100.22842323.101695774036.81850191924140.223055351076371614122212WETL
2025-11-10 03:00:05FORECAST20265113134.35833.7134.03424.2907009313950.0460630170.5560630174.555.106063017TF2.35895.35842325.317502433967.90219015937150.422797040586961624132221WETL