MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 2, 2025

[ Saturday, November 1, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, November 3, 2025 ]

DAY 33 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/03/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.36°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.56°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.224
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 167

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.09 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.50 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.86 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.88 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 61
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 327.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 113

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-03 07:00:02OBSERVATION20263311333.7600425.3599829.560010000.380.38FF1.76004166.7600460327.13813922996 00.2240184338223116 15115217.5DRYL
2025-11-03 03:00:03OBSERVATION20263311333.7600425.3599829.560010000.380.38FF1.76004166.7600460327.13813922996 00.2240184338223116 15115217.5DRYL
2025-11-02 11:00:01FORECAST20263311331.1922.56826.87900.062992160.062992160.380.44299216FF-0.81164.1961328.1650818741100.152313410823671615115217.5DRYL
2025-11-02 07:00:03FORECAST20263311330.86621.34426.10500.0507874290.0507874290.380.430787429FF-1.134163.86661328.1650818741100.144494152056471615115217.5DRYL
2025-11-02 03:00:03FORECAST20263311331.44221.5626.50100.1161417950.1161417950.380.496141795FF-0.558164.44261328.1650818741100.158585247582241615125235DRYL
2025-11-02 00:00:03FORECAST20263311332.57621.75827.16700.1027559613.1027559610.383.482755961TF0.576162.57661328.1650818741100.188865684114661615155287.5DRYVH
2025-11-01 20:00:02FORECAST20263311332.34222.80227.57200.1641733173.3741733170.383.754173317TF0.342162.34261328.1650818741100.182342759169441615155287.5DRYVH
2025-11-01 16:00:01FORECAST20263311332.91823.91828.41800.1582678023.3682678020.383.748267802TF0.918162.91861328.1650818741100.198653496765321615155287.5DRYVH
2025-11-01 12:00:03FORECAST20263311332.59424.5328.56200.1240158153.3340158150.383.714015815TF0.594162.59461328.1650818741100.189373320437841615155287.5DRYVH
2025-11-01 08:00:03FORECAST2026331133224.29628.14800.1035433633.3835433630.383.763543363TF016261328.1650818741100.173065390264671615155287.5DRYVH
2025-11-01 04:00:03FORECAST20263311332.16224.42228.29200.0531496353.2331496350.383.613149635TF0.162161.16261328.1650818741100.177421919608841615155287.5DRYVH
2025-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20263311332.52225.0728.79600.0614173564.0514173560.384.431417356TF0.522157.52261328.1650818741100.187347801597371615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 20:00:01FORECAST20263311332.41425.2528.83200.0594488513.6294488510.384.009448851TF0.414159.41461328.1650818741100.184334689628151615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 16:00:02FORECAST20263311332.05425.14228.59800.0791339013.5291339010.383.909133901TF0.054000000000002159.05461328.1650818741100.174509952411251615155287.5DRYVH
2025-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20263311332.32425.05228.68800.0519685323.3119685320.383.691968532TF0.324159.32461328.1650818741100.181846880962781615155287.5DRYVH
2025-10-31 08:00:01FORECAST20263311332.86425.17829.02100.0507874293.2607874290.383.640787429TF0.864159.86461328.1650818741100.197088076016991615155287.5DRYVH
2025-10-31 04:00:03FORECAST20263311332.52224.78228.65200.0531496353.2631496350.383.643149635TF0.522160.52261328.1650818741100.187347801597371615155287.5DRYVH
2025-10-31 00:00:01FORECAST20263311332.79225.6129.201002.80.383.18TF0.792157.79261328.1650818741100.195012474911551615155287.5DRYVH
2025-10-30 20:00:02FORECAST20263311332.57626.18629.381002.810.383.19TF0.576156.57661328.1650818741100.188865684114661615155287.5DRYVH
2025-10-30 16:00:02FORECAST20263311332.59426.22229.408002.840.383.22TF0.594153.59461328.1650818741100.189373320437841615155287.5DRYVH
2025-10-30 12:00:02FORECAST20263311332.55825.64629.10200.0133858342.6033858340.382.983385834TF0.558154.55861328.1650818741100.188358885272791615155287.5DRYVH
2025-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20263311333.18826.3329.759002.630.383.01TF1.188160.18861328.1650818741100.206592189949491615155287.5DRYVH
2025-10-30 04:00:06FORECAST20263311333.47626.72630.101002.780.383.16TF1.476158.47661328.1650818741100.215263458412421615155287.5DRYVH
2025-10-30 00:00:01FORECAST20263311333.826.72630.263003.290.924.21TF1.8157.861328.1650818741100.225266121263091615155287.5WETL
2025-10-29 20:00:01FORECAST20263311333.4426.1529.795003.050.923.97TF1.44154.4461328.1650818741100.214168159005571615155287.5DRYVH
2025-10-29 16:00:02FORECAST20263311333.27824.96229.12003.080.924TF1.278154.27861328.1650818741100.209279530413341615155287.5WETL
2025-10-29 12:00:02FORECAST20263311332.41425.50228.95800.1933071913.1733071910.924.093307191TF0.414153.41461328.1650818741100.184334689628151615155287.5WETL
2025-10-29 08:00:03FORECAST20263311332.75625.30429.0300.1933071913.3733071910.934.303307191TF0.756153.75661328.1650818741100.193979665978761615155287.5WETL
2025-10-29 04:00:04FORECAST20263311334.32226.34830.33500.1933071913.3433071910.914.253307191TF2.322157.32261328.1650818741100.24192109694261615155287.5WETL
2025-10-29 00:00:02FORECAST20263311332.50425.4328.96700.1291339282.8991339281.544.439133928TF0.504149.50461328.1650818741100.186843517529771615155287.5WETL
2025-10-28 20:00:05FORECAST20263311332.70226.63629.66900.1291339283.0691339281.274.339133928TF0.702152.70261328.1650818741100.19243670267091615155287.5WETL
2025-10-28 16:00:01FORECAST20263311331.89223.88227.88700.1405512573.1605512571.444.600551257TF-0.108153.89261328.1650818741100.17019913601091615155287.5WETL
2025-10-28 12:00:02FORECAST20263311332.3625.05228.70600.2287402813.5687402811.364.928740281TF0.36154.3661328.1650818741100.18283947945771615155287.5WETL
2025-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20263311333.22426.36629.79500.2287402813.5787402811.214.788740281TF1.224157.22461328.1650818741100.207664669895261615155287.5WETL
2025-10-28 04:00:05FORECAST20263311334.4327.48230.95600.3133859963.5833859961.244.823385996TF2.43158.4361328.1650818741100.245448366067441615155287.5WETL
2025-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20263311335.29426.13230.71300.015748043.135748041.374.50574804TF3.294154.29461328.1650818741100.2746319903154816251552100WETL
2025-10-27 20:00:03FORECAST20263311335.00625.95230.47900.0149606383.1149606381.444.554960638TF3.006154.00661328.1650818741100.2647173320595116251552100WETL
2025-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20263311335.16826.630.88400.0149606383.1049606381.414.514960638TF3.168154.16861328.1650818741100.2702718992289516251552100WETL
2025-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20263311333.65626.56430.1100.0779527983.2179527981.34.517952798TF1.656151.65661328.1650818741100.220788401710831615155287.5WETL
2025-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20263311335.13226.76230.94700.0712598813.1612598811.34.461259881TF3.132158.13261328.1650818741100.2690325385179316251552100WETL
2025-10-27 04:00:04FORECAST20263311335.0626.74430.902002.971.324.29TF3.06156.0661328.1650818741100.2665623938805716251552100WETL
2025-10-27 00:00:02FORECAST20263311334.95227.06831.01002.332.795.12TF2.952148.95261328.1650818741100.2628787781794316251552100WETL
2025-10-26 20:00:02FORECAST20263311335.25827.03231.145002.332.895.22TF3.258152.25861328.1650818741100.2733827218449716251552100WETL
2025-10-26 16:00:03FORECAST20263311334.727.35631.02800.0098425252.0698425252.854.919842525TF2.7151.761328.1650818741100.2543859192884816251552100WETL
2025-10-26 12:00:02FORECAST20263311340.20829.60634.90700.2114174371.3814174372.674.051417437TF8.208158.20861328.1650818741100.465360120003761625145280WETM
2025-10-26 08:00:02FORECAST20263311339.30829.5734.43900.2114174371.3814174372.43.781417437TF7.308158.30861328.1650818741100.428303381298221625145280DRYVH
2025-10-26 04:00:05FORECAST20263311339.3827.44633.413001.562.444TF7.38161.3861328.1650818741100.4312491748333816251552100WETM
2025-10-26 00:00:02FORECAST20263311336.39228.34632.36900.1940945932.0740945933.555.624094593TF4.392156.39261328.1650818741100.3140256782209816251552100WETM
2025-10-25 20:00:04FORECAST20263311336.39228.34632.36900.1940945932.0740945934.056.124094593TT4.392159.39261328.1650818741100.3140256782209816251552100WETH
2025-10-25 16:00:02FORECAST20263311338.4830.6534.56500.2263780751.8363780754.26.036378075TT6.48160.4861328.1650818741100.3947532413462916251552100WETH
2025-10-25 12:00:03FORECAST20263311338.28231.80235.04201.2078746683.2078746684.217.417874668TT6.282159.28261328.1650818741100.3868348616479716251552100WETH
2025-10-25 08:00:04FORECAST20263311338.28231.80235.04201.2078746683.2078746684.487.687874668TT6.282161.28261328.1650818741100.3868348616479716251552100WETH
2025-10-25 04:00:05FORECAST20263311337.54430.90234.22301.5003945113.6303945113.827.450394511TT5.544163.54461328.1650818741100.3577575338112216251552100WETH
2025-10-25 00:00:03FORECAST20263311342.31435.16838.741002.135.837.96TT10.314148.31461328.1650818741100.5526864620962316351552112.5WETH
2025-10-24 20:00:05FORECAST20263311342.31435.16838.741002.136.38.43TT10.314152.31461328.1650818741100.5526864620962316351552112.5WETH
2025-10-24 16:00:03FORECAST20263311341.55833.13437.346001.976.368.33TT9.558150.55861328.1650818741100.5214113654570516351552112.5WETH
2025-10-24 12:00:02FORECAST20263311346.18433.06239.62300.6885830495.1685830496.711.868583049TT14.184145.18461328.1650818741100.7038869334166116451552125WETH
2025-10-24 08:00:02FORECAST20263311346.18433.15239.66800.7051184915.1151184916.3711.485118491TT14.184146.18461328.1650818741100.7038869334166116451552125WETH
2025-10-24 04:00:05FORECAST20263311342.40431.53236.96800.0771653964.5471653966.310.847165396TT10.404144.40461328.1650818741100.5563917872490816351552112.5WETH
2025-10-24 00:00:03FORECAST20263311344.52840.35242.4400.7692917544.9792917546.2311.209291754TT12.528151.52861328.1650818741100.6417326386939616351552112.5WETH
2025-10-23 20:00:03FORECAST20263311344.52840.35242.4400.7692917544.9792917546.1911.169291754TT12.528156.52861328.1650818741100.6417326386939616351552112.5WETH
2025-10-23 16:00:02FORECAST20263311344.52839.93842.23300.5476380913.9176380916.2310.147638091TT12.528152.52861328.1650818741100.6417326386939616351552112.5WETH
2025-10-23 12:00:03FORECAST20263311348.39844.88846.643000.796.687.47TT16.398166.39861328.1650818741100.77824866777711645135275WETH
2025-10-23 08:00:04FORECAST20263311348.39844.88846.643000.796.647.43TT16.398160.39861328.1650818741100.77824866777711645135275WETH
2025-10-23 04:00:05FORECAST20263311344.76244.74444.753001.246.627.86TT12.762148.76261328.1650818741100.650796254088351635145290WETH