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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 19, 2025

[ Tuesday, November 18, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, November 20, 2025 ]

DAY 50 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/20/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.56°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.98°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.77°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.342
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 165

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.27 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 43
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 309.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 130

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-20 07:00:03OBSERVATION20265013032.5599824.9828.76999000.398.278.66TT0.55998164.5599843309.06959209287 00.3420633393077416 24125235WETL
2025-11-20 03:00:03OBSERVATION20265013032.5599824.9828.76999000.398.278.66TT0.55998164.5599843309.06959209287 00.3420633393077416 24125235WETL
2025-11-19 11:00:01FORECAST20265013031.40621.77626.591000.398.278.66TT-0.594163.40643309.0695920928700.295540356526751624125235WETL
2025-11-19 07:00:04FORECAST20265013032.73821.72227.23000.398.278.66TT0.738164.73843309.0695920928700.349482635821711624125235WETL
2025-11-19 03:00:06FORECAST20265013032.68421.72227.203000.398.278.66TT0.684164.68443309.0695920928700.347225853503151624125235WETL
2025-11-18 23:00:01FORECAST20265013032.61222.02827.320.0677405348172490.0188976480.0788976488.278.348897648TT0.612163.61243309.119284254520.0209399056377260.344225224456081624114214WETL
2025-11-18 19:00:02FORECAST20265013032.82822.58627.7070.122304704183930.0350393890.0950393898.278.365039389TT0.828163.82843309.15930446410.0378116372781930.353255748700391624124228WETL
2025-11-18 15:00:01FORECAST20265013032.88223.57628.2290.190808354523950.0539370370.1139370378.278.383937037TT0.882163.88243309.209540764220.0589997636763250.355526584604561624124228WETL
2025-11-18 11:00:01FORECAST20265013033.20625.12429.165000.068.278.33TT1.206164.20643309.0695920928700.369256903673961624115217.5WETL
2025-11-18 07:00:04FORECAST20265013032.9925.35829.1740.0296756848771060.0125984320.0725984328.278.342598432TT0.99163.9943309.091362222420.0091724978635480.360083595416381624115217.5WETL
2025-11-18 03:00:04FORECAST20265013033.47625.39429.435000.068.278.33TT1.476165.47643309.0695920928700.380828474304881624115217.5WETL
2025-11-17 23:00:02FORECAST20265013034.1624.99829.579000.038.278.3TT2.16163.1643309.0695920928700.410601621377091624115217.5WETL
2025-11-17 19:00:01FORECAST20265013035.1526.20430.677000.038.278.3TT3.15165.1543309.0695920928700.454577296542771624115217.5WETL
2025-11-17 15:00:02FORECAST20265013035.18626.90631.046000.038.278.3TT3.186166.18643309.0695920928700.45619035886211624115217.5WETL
2025-11-17 11:00:02FORECAST20265013035.07827.01431.046000.038.278.3TT3.078165.07843309.0695920928700.451353444298151624115217.5WETL
2025-11-17 07:00:03FORECAST20265013035.38426.34830.866000.058.278.32TT3.384164.38443309.0695920928700.465074404460731624115217.5WETL
2025-11-17 03:00:03FORECAST20265013035.13226.49230.812000.058.278.32TT3.132164.13243309.0695920928700.453771044494951624115217.5WETL
2025-11-16 23:00:05FORECAST20265013036.48225.98831.2350.2663830917097700.238.218.44TT4.482162.48243309.264952417830.0823829541825350.514534815197751634124232WETL
2025-11-16 19:00:03FORECAST20265013037.05826.65431.8560.2059032462105100.28.218.41TT5.058163.05843309.220609240110.0636695272377290.540440124366751634124232WETL
2025-11-16 15:00:02FORECAST20265013037.02226.00631.5140.257647813832500.238.218.44TT5.022164.02243309.258548226120.0796797888594720.538824917014741634124232WETL
2025-11-16 11:00:01FORECAST20265013037.16627.06832.1170.1389467436626100.178.218.38TT5.166164.16643309.171509500640.0429583744783670.545281637670381634124232WETH
2025-11-16 07:00:05FORECAST20265013036.91427.69832.3060.1823081100813100.168.258.41TT4.914162.91443309.203307690670.0563702706559750.533975556809641634124232WETH
2025-11-16 03:00:04FORECAST20265013037.20227.46432.333000.118.38.41TT5.202163.20243309.0695920928700.546894017840491634125240WETH
2025-11-15 23:00:03FORECAST20265013036.69826.25831.478000.028.338.35TT4.698159.69843309.0695920928700.524262405986851634115220WETL
2025-11-15 19:00:02FORECAST20265013035.9626.631.280.15258268823300.058.348.39TT3.96157.9643309.181509525120.0471757458752810.491002033810251624114214WETL
2025-11-15 15:00:01FORECAST20265013035.83426.18631.010.1943991367469100.058.358.4TT3.834156.83443309.212173778610.0601105796541990.485323295756221624114214WETL
2025-11-15 11:00:02FORECAST20265013034.46624.90829.6870.0880895535909700.098.398.48TT2.466155.46643309.134209935470.0272314945529130.42410117043021624114214WETL
2025-11-15 07:00:04FORECAST20265013034.19622.92828.5620.2163618803567200.078.418.48TT2.196153.19643309.228277886270.0669052116629440.412184645218041624114214WETL
2025-11-15 03:00:03FORECAST20265013033.6223.50428.5620.2311432437534500.098.58.59TT1.62151.6243309.239115765350.071478532313450.387044584066521624114214WETL
2025-11-14 23:00:02FORECAST20265013033.1723.43228.3012.26473534739780.1291339280.1891339287.757.939133928TT1.17146.1743310.726298545180.703712831681360.367722677115861624124228WETL
2025-11-14 19:00:03FORECAST20265013033.78223.55828.672.19825379432230.1291339280.2391339287.617.849133928TT1.782150.78243310.677801396270.682948655731060.394072411911771624124228WETL
2025-11-14 15:00:02FORECAST20265013033.78223.77428.7782.28772633046580.129921330.219921337.697.90992133TT1.782146.78243310.743068166030.710895099053150.389747400099181624124228WETL
2025-11-14 11:00:02FORECAST20265013032.91823.12628.0222.52734804543450.0122047310.1522047311.761.912204731FF0.918145.91843310.917789942010.785797468700750.352836382637161624124228DRYL
2025-11-14 07:00:04FORECAST20265013033.1723.10828.1392.07958683406420.0122047310.1622047311.942.102204731FF1.17149.1743310.591215533350.645901402599140.363477445026051624124228DRYL
2025-11-14 03:00:05FORECAST20265013033.22424.8929.0571.385536959584200.121.541.66FF1.224149.22443310.084275996640.429633224979240.365771768922071624124228DRYL
2025-11-13 23:00:02FORECAST20265013029.78622.76626.2764.87746396462800.343.263.6TF-2.214133.78643312.625768466411.52482092010910.232128401291061614124224DRYL
2025-11-13 19:00:03FORECAST20265013029.85823.8126.8344.991166514011200.263.573.83TF-2.142133.85843312.708145045271.56077842220850.234621212765021614124224DRYL
2025-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20265013030.36223.41426.8884.645302171462500.163.573.73TF-1.638134.36243312.457495222761.4514594810480.252478123635581624124228DRYL
2025-11-13 11:00:02FORECAST20265013029.19222.5525.8715.05856017806260.3169293050.3569293053.53.856929305TF-2.808133.19243312.75695998221.58209990317790.212133504764711614124224DRYL
2025-11-13 07:00:04FORECAST20265013028.83222.06425.4485.44911154052480.3169293050.3569293053.974.326929305TF-3.168131.83243313.0396817561.70578814249890.200520979306751614124224WETL
2025-11-13 03:00:04FORECAST20265013029.2122.4625.8356.13789524716650.2925198430.4625198434.294.752519843TF-2.79128.2143313.537612212211.92446101980530.212724249961811614124224WETL
2025-11-12 23:00:03FORECAST20265013028.72423.32426.02410.7238477285840.870079210.890079213.544.43007921TF-3.276117.72443316.830739170593.39764460260020.197112936408571614133227WETL
2025-11-12 19:00:02FORECAST20265013027.08623.01825.0529.83960682882790.870079210.890079212.893.78007921TF-4.914118.08643316.198756070453.11127143949770.149796070667541614133227DRYL
2025-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20265013026.94223.64825.2959.35386034158720.834646120.854646122.613.46464612TF-5.058116.94243315.850979682182.95442595270060.146031837415021614133227DRYL
2025-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST20265013029.4826.40227.9418.44827133547830.4937010540.5037010542.993.493701054TF-2.52118.4843315.201464913262.66290750092750.221699812885431614133227DRYL
2025-11-12 07:00:06FORECAST20265013029.55226.5128.0318.11103280534440.4937010540.5037010543.023.523701054TF-2.448114.55243314.959205600472.55464444897070.224129272901611614133227DRYL
2025-11-12 03:00:04FORECAST20265013030.70425.68228.1938.62691851983580.4944884560.4944884562.943.434488456FF-1.296114.70443315.32971418882.72032375118990.264990585559421624133231.5DRYL
2025-11-11 23:00:02FORECAST20265013030.75826.6928.72419.9894154396081.3377959981.8877959983.345.227795998TF-1.242104.75843323.368343974826.46394416773080.266994614359041624152235WETL
2025-11-11 19:00:03FORECAST20265013030.75826.58228.6720.7102299632371.3377959981.8877959983.545.427795998TF-1.242106.75843323.870515597696.70743285634020.266994614359041624152235WETL
2025-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20265013032.34226.72629.53419.7451290182221.3421267091.8721267093.425.292126709TF0.342110.34243323.197947652146.3815851748160.328953012062931624152235WETL
2025-11-11 11:00:03FORECAST20265013032.48622.24427.36512.0612763403550.4472443360.6572443362.993.647244336TF0.486112.48643317.783930806373.832879805980.33486341673681624133231.5DRYL
2025-11-11 07:00:06FORECAST20265013030.4720.15625.31312.0015230404640.4472443360.6572443362.873.527244336TF-1.53111.4743317.741413416853.8133808940320.256395558102881624133231.5DRYL
2025-11-11 03:00:04FORECAST20265013031.22621.57826.40212.5771340118920.429134090.649134093.053.69913409TF-0.774113.22643318.150720514534.00142424789120.284676812082351624133231.5DRYL
2025-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20265013029.42623.01826.22223.1082609727940.5606302241.2306302243.634.860630224TF-2.57499.42643325.534555870247.52253747271220.219887616813451614142224WETL
2025-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20265013029.42623.01826.22222.9567455549490.5606302241.2306302243.935.160630224TF-2.574106.42643325.429716085047.47080718818340.219887616813451614142224WETL
2025-11-10 15:00:03FORECAST20265013027.24821.36224.30527.5962339691090.5622050281.2422050284.725.962205028TF-4.75298.24843328.621742965959.06872250622480.154107330213661614142224WETL
2025-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20265013041.4862332.24316.9999120869990.0996063530.4496063533.914.359606353TF9.486106.48643321.275797525065.46166031360630.722791291854481644122218WETL
2025-11-10 07:00:04FORECAST20265013041.4862332.24321.1032687491990.0996063530.4496063534.034.479606353TF9.486105.48643324.143947797076.8404968437880.722791291854481644122218WETL
2025-11-10 03:00:04FORECAST20265013036.21222.53229.37223.9460709936990.4578742630.6978742634.365.057874263TF4.21295.21243326.113543464147.80913806379910.497922049411041624132221WETL
2025-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20265013023.75618.21220.98422.79367767207300.044.844.88TF-8.24469.75643325.316837582997.41516713716460.078619849954884161411226WETL
2025-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20265013023.75618.21220.98423.3245981943700.044.874.91TF-8.24467.75643325.684178627817.59645260475710.078619849954884161411226WETL
2025-11-09 15:00:03FORECAST20265013032.43223.57628.00423.323551191793004.644.64TF0.43275.43243325.683454699767.59609472800960.33264212235768162411227WETL
2025-11-09 11:00:04FORECAST20265013018.39216.89817.64520.44843906129700.155.275.42TF-13.60862.39243323.688239400496.61891923823960.0215202733390051614122212WETL
2025-11-09 07:00:05FORECAST20265013019.38215.06217.22220.52269541098800.155.325.47TF-12.61882.38243323.739953912916.64401646652190.028015871648351614122212WETL
2025-11-09 03:00:05FORECAST20265013017.04216.80816.92519.17374819004100.175.235.4TF-14.95884.04243322.798981115776.18926637991570.0147456549397971614122212WETL