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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 18, 2025

[ Monday, November 17, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 19, 2025 ]

DAY 49 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/18/2025 11:00:01 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.44°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.25°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.195
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 176

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.21 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 10.25 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 44
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 310.17 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 129

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-18 11:00:01FORECAST20264912928.43624.06226.249000.2110.0410.25TT-3.564176.43644310.1650649263200.195099341261251614125230WETL
2025-11-18 07:00:04FORECAST20264912928.3124.40426.357000.2110.0410.25TT-3.69176.3144310.1650649263200.191232911799681614125230WETL
2025-11-18 03:00:04FORECAST20264912928.63424.58426.609000.2110.0410.25TT-3.366176.63444310.1650649263200.201270121370421614125230WETL
2025-11-17 23:00:02FORECAST20264912928.38223.97226.177000.1810.0410.22TT-3.618174.38244310.1650649263200.193436528201481614125230WETL
2025-11-17 19:00:01FORECAST20264912929.06624.8926.978000.1810.0410.22TT-2.934175.06644310.1650649263200.215132540839941614125230WETL
2025-11-17 15:00:01FORECAST20264912929.96625.62827.797000.1810.0410.22TT-2.034175.96644310.1650649263200.245723481927721614125230WETL
2025-11-17 11:00:01FORECAST20264912929.33624.85427.095000.1810.0410.22TT-2.664175.33644310.1650649263200.224070447745041614125230WETL
2025-11-17 07:00:03FORECAST20264912929.323.95426.627000.210.0410.24TT-2.7174.344310.1650649263200.222866699535081614125230WETL
2025-11-17 03:00:03FORECAST20264912928.83223.75626.294000.210.0410.24TT-3.168173.83244310.1650649263200.207556210254791614125230WETL
2025-11-16 23:00:04FORECAST20264912928.95823.2726.1140.3889894917097700.3210.0410.36TT-3.042170.95844310.449216227730.120761482822120.211616043139271614124224WETL
2025-11-16 19:00:03FORECAST20264912928.77822.98225.880.3640320462105100.2910.0410.33TT-3.222170.77844310.430993595480.113006829805730.205830440305021614124224WETL
2025-11-16 15:00:01FORECAST20264912929.324.40426.8520.41587501383250.0732283860.32322838610.0410.363228386TT-2.7172.344310.468845349080.129116235354110.222866699535081614124224WETL
2025-11-16 11:00:01FORECAST20264912929.08423.79226.4380.312032343662610.0425197080.26251970810.0410.302519708TT-2.916172.08444310.393022398760.0968526622356060.215721898032881614124224WETL
2025-11-16 07:00:05FORECAST20264912928.52623.50426.0150.336894510081310.0417323060.29173230610.0410.331732306TT-3.474170.52644310.411177863160.104575821689970.197889889622331614124224WETL
2025-11-16 03:00:03FORECAST20264912928.8523.926.3750.12199207898120.0098425250.28984252510.0410.329842525TT-3.15170.8544310.254208627210.0378485559231010.208133357876021614124224WETL
2025-11-15 23:00:03FORECAST20264912928.56224.58426.5730.0947755980652830.0212598540.14125985410.1310.271259854TT-3.438167.56244310.234323026150.0294026435051810.199012812394351614124224WETL
2025-11-15 19:00:01FORECAST20264912929.46225.5227.4910.2736146882330.0535433360.18354333610.1310.313543336TT-2.538167.46244310.364965856140.0849204133711730.228312475569831614124224WETL
2025-11-15 15:00:01FORECAST20264912929.0324.72826.8790.299687136746910.0212598540.19125985410.1310.321259854TT-2.97166.0344310.384006951270.093018094335260.213956629409311614124224WETL
2025-11-15 11:00:02FORECAST20264912927.69822.78425.2410.1407335535909700.2710.1310.4TT-4.302165.69844310.267901203290.0436651043015510.173127835360471614124224WETL
2025-11-15 07:00:03FORECAST20264912927.7722.20824.9890.2548362803567200.2810.1210.4TT-4.23163.7744310.351250925680.0790887583899560.175199461833941614124224WETL
2025-11-15 03:00:03FORECAST20264912927.73422.08224.9080.2535784437534500.2910.2210.51TT-4.266162.73444310.350332233280.078698154266080.174161695632861614124224WETL
2025-11-14 23:00:02FORECAST20264912927.64421.70424.6741.625591271247400.249.499.73TT-4.356157.64444311.350673624840.506128937341520.171584372849851614124224WETL
2025-11-14 19:00:03FORECAST20264912928.32823.48625.9071.59271714993100.269.389.64TT-3.672162.32844311.326745680270.495855447077180.191782371271361614124224WETL
2025-11-14 15:00:02FORECAST20264912928.02223.73825.881.686567561604100.279.439.7TT-3.978158.02244311.395050884090.525188791665180.177011288401091614124224WETL
2025-11-14 11:00:02FORECAST20264912928.09423.46825.7812.47444630408510.0704724790.2904724791.611.900472479FF-3.906158.09444311.967834705920.771947655581510.17912525032141614124224DRYL
2025-11-14 07:00:04FORECAST20264912928.38224.33226.3572.03312846049820.0704724790.4404724791.652.090472479FF-3.618161.38244311.647140103460.633618670177220.187738597442711614124224DRYL
2025-11-14 03:00:05FORECAST20264912929.85826.16828.0131.39911615958420.0688976750.3988976751.261.658897675FF-2.142160.85844311.185789626540.435385066899450.235757206040421614124224DRYL
2025-11-13 23:00:01FORECAST20264912927.33821.30824.3234.87746396462800.463.143.6TF-4.662149.33844313.707753472741.53009826298770.157718454137391614124224DRYL
2025-11-13 19:00:03FORECAST20264912926.47421.41623.9454.991166514011200.493.343.83TF-5.526149.47444313.78981761461.56617723011570.135394828982671614124224DRYL
2025-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20264912925.98820.67823.3334.645302171462500.423.313.73TF-6.012148.98844313.540118454011.4564885930950.123834907290311614124224DRYL
2025-11-13 11:00:02FORECAST20264912926.72620.13823.4323.140358450774700.133.413.54FF-5.274148.72644312.451056409130.98120831544790.141670484760231614124224DRYL
2025-11-13 07:00:04FORECAST20264912927.98621.81224.8993.455472773805500.263.754.01TF-4.014147.98644312.679435589261.08045527660760.175960229263931614124224WETL
2025-11-13 03:00:04FORECAST20264912927.87821.00224.444.260255473230100.44.064.46TF-4.122143.87844313.261873154561.33457560966110.172830767344491614124224WETL
2025-11-12 23:00:03FORECAST20264912928.18421.70424.9445.234163405175400.183.383.56FF-3.816134.18444313.965119753051.64334474031290.181789882294671614124224DRYL
2025-11-12 19:00:02FORECAST20264912928.79622.06425.434.247178566554100.182.732.91FF-3.204135.79644313.252418644551.33043895838840.200558861030651614124224DRYL
2025-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20264912927.62622.9125.2683.95005888377520.0200787510.1600787512.472.630078751FF-4.374134.62644313.037518590281.23651663126250.1656672743771614124224DRYL
2025-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST20264912929.24620.6624.9535.38186240684180.0125984320.2625984322.743.002598432FF-2.754134.24644314.071619496631.69029024202490.215072912597871614124224DRYL
2025-11-12 07:00:06FORECAST20264912926.81619.88623.3515.13380232891410.0125984320.2625984322.773.032598432FF-5.184129.81644313.8927306611.61146323169660.143958667179381614124224DRYL
2025-11-12 03:00:04FORECAST20264912925.84418.44622.1455.596122338725600.312.632.94FF-6.156128.84444314.226042618391.75844737650610.120546066745191614124224DRYL
2025-11-11 23:00:02FORECAST20264912928.14821.00224.57511.1922533546740.4019687211.2319687212.663.891968721TF-3.852119.14844318.229711432693.56170755533950.180721074678871614143236DRYL
2025-11-11 19:00:03FORECAST20264912927.3221.03824.17911.9095844218060.4019687211.2319687212.864.091968721TF-4.68121.3244318.738812609173.79604679727510.157230090167981614143236WETL
2025-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20264912929.1223.10826.11411.3735688727350.4114175451.2014175452.753.951417545TF-2.88123.1244318.35848152913.62087211589050.210948816588921614143236DRYL
2025-11-11 11:00:03FORECAST20264912928.74223.3626.0519.28095531751060.0594488510.8894488512.313.199448851FF-3.258124.74244316.868695931862.94084420846150.198857511572871614133227DRYL
2025-11-11 07:00:06FORECAST20264912929.04822.22625.6379.11375861065550.0594488510.8894488512.193.079448851FF-2.952126.04844316.749322314132.88677686365970.20861311514151614133227DRYL
2025-11-11 03:00:04FORECAST20264912928.97620.3924.6839.76275306332790.0559055420.9159055422.353.265905542FF-3.024126.97644317.212402212853.09686635142910.206292699013981614133227DRYL
2025-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20264912929.53420.31824.92618.6297827729120.3685041361.6685041362.634.298504136TF-2.466114.53444323.46346177886.02605402791320.224672915525581614152230WETL
2025-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20264912929.53424.09826.81618.4782673550670.3685041361.6685041362.934.598504136TF-2.466121.53444323.357824781385.9750923376630.224672915525581614152230WETL
2025-11-10 15:00:03FORECAST20264912927.44623.01825.23222.6629744053390.370078941.950078943.455.40007894TF-4.554116.44644326.260522423527.39403386915680.160669485241771614152230WETL
2025-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20264912928.38222.3725.37616.3273912958150.0681102731.5481102732.714.258110273TF-3.618110.38244321.853834475785.25503349554450.187738597442711614152230WETL
2025-11-10 07:00:04FORECAST20264912928.38222.3725.37620.4307479580160.0681102731.5481102732.834.378110273TF-3.618109.38244324.71599142976.63419057883740.187738597442711614152230WETL
2025-11-10 03:00:04FORECAST20264912926.40224.06225.23220.3974293608470.0484252231.4884252233.114.598425223TF-5.598104.40244324.692871097236.62289990217650.133637222424381614142224WETL
2025-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20264912925.44819.00422.22622.79367767207300.834.054.88TF-6.55291.44844326.350688040247.43873239124830.111819442656841614132218WETL
2025-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20264912925.44819.00422.22623.3245981943700.834.084.91TF-6.55289.44844326.716635837947.62053425433610.111819442656841614132218WETL
2025-11-09 15:00:03FORECAST20264912926.38421.70424.04423.32591279179300.594.054.64TF-5.61688.38444326.717541338687.6209848768150.133200275916041614132218WETL
2025-11-09 11:00:04FORECAST20264912928.74218.64423.69320.4484390612970.1511811841.4411811843.985.421181184TF-3.25888.74244324.728266787246.64018617487950.198857511572871614142224WETL
2025-11-09 07:00:04FORECAST20264912930.7415.15222.94620.5226954109880.1511811841.4411811844.035.471181184TF-1.26107.7444324.779785157416.66535660643170.267400571161331624142228WETL
2025-11-09 03:00:05FORECAST20264912931.5517.29424.42219.1737481900410.129921331.429921333.975.39992133TF-0.45111.5544323.842381271676.20927227176650.29823437707021624142228WETL
2025-11-08 23:00:02FORECAST20264912925.9719.97622.97310.52691582390200.442.162.6FF-6.03115.9744317.7566809913.34499783327460.123420411611181614123218DRYL
2025-11-08 19:00:02FORECAST20264912925.9719.97622.97310.70662742272600.442.152.59FF-6.03111.9744317.88452811933.40347120602230.123420411611181614123218DRYL
2025-11-08 15:00:03FORECAST20264912924.38614.32419.35513.75275736973600.772.443.21FF-7.614110.38644320.042695625354.40146954089150.0906627896535311614133227DRYL
2025-11-08 11:00:04FORECAST20264912922.20818.84220.52510.28788823724801.241.963.2TF-9.792111.20844317.586545916263.26729489004010.0567637441550381614143236DRYL
2025-11-08 07:00:06FORECAST20264912922.20818.84220.52514.43212337179101.223.2TF-9.792110.20844320.521749868234.62580943744080.0567637441550381614143236DRYL
2025-11-08 03:00:05FORECAST20264912918.1416.89817.51918.29604871600401.272.333.6TF-13.8697.1444323.23072754925.91384513774960.0205470647733211614142224DRYL