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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 17, 2025

[ Sunday, November 16, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 18, 2025 ]

DAY 48 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/18/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.22°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.09°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.629
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 195

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.50 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.74 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 45
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 311.26 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 128

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-18 07:00:03OBSERVATION20264812838.9600625.2199432.0900.0599999999999990.511.2411.74TT6.96006194.9600645311.2563828623 00.6288129345046316 34135260WETH
2025-11-18 03:00:03OBSERVATION20264812838.9600625.2199432.0900.0599999999999990.511.2411.74TT6.96006194.9600645311.2563828623 00.6288129345046316 34135260WETH
2025-11-17 11:00:01FORECAST20264812836.51825.10630.81200.0342519870.47425198711.2411.714251987TT4.518192.51845311.256382862300.513657246105451634125240WETL
2025-11-17 07:00:03FORECAST20264812836.08624.9830.53300.0468504190.48685041911.2411.726850419TT4.086192.08645311.256382862300.492878717276081624125235WETL
2025-11-17 03:00:02FORECAST20264812836.26624.87230.56900.0484252230.48842522311.2411.728425223TT4.266192.26645311.256382862300.501537325132731634125240WETL
2025-11-16 23:00:02FORECAST20264812836.12225.57430.8480.388989491709770.2259843740.60598437411.2411.845984374TT4.122189.12245311.539456437740.121185574807250.494610300991911624134242WETL
2025-11-16 19:00:02FORECAST20264812836.1425.75430.9470.364032046210510.2019686130.58196861311.2411.821968613TT4.14189.1445311.52130292010.113403737340170.495476132972831624134242WETL
2025-11-16 15:00:01FORECAST20264812836.57225.68231.1270.104152098792210.1594489050.53944890511.2411.779448905TT4.572189.57245311.332203350040.032425902400510.516253113017151634134248WETL
2025-11-16 11:00:01FORECAST20264812836.89625.71831.3070.130780260536680.1326772370.51267723711.2411.752677237TT4.896189.89645311.351584859640.0407186413864520.531810011580091634134248WETL
2025-11-16 07:00:05FORECAST20264812836.4126.3331.370.162226623208360.1200788050.54007880511.2411.780078805TT4.41189.4145311.374471645280.0505132290883030.508463885800071634134248WETL
2025-11-16 03:00:03FORECAST20264812836.42827.33831.8830.0822989644215310.0980315490.56803154911.2411.808031549TT4.428189.42845311.316296400970.0256210088013470.509329569293321634134248WETL
2025-11-15 23:00:02FORECAST20264812836.10429.08432.594000.511.2411.74TT4.104186.10445311.256382862300.493744494400351624135252.5WETH
2025-11-15 19:00:01FORECAST20264812835.47430.00232.7380.050538400.5111.2411.75TT3.474185.47445311.293176235560.0157322590578630.463488891609821624134242WETH
2025-11-15 15:00:01FORECAST20264812835.20427.42831.3160.208534734294280.0307086780.55070867811.2411.790708678TT3.204184.20445311.408171541540.0649394203094830.450576394680771624134242WETL
2025-11-15 11:00:01FORECAST20264812835.3324.96230.1460.140733553590970.0921260340.65212603411.2411.892126034TT3.33185.3345311.358829102960.0438186344615830.45659656197951624134242WETL
2025-11-15 07:00:03FORECAST20264812833.20623.75628.4810.254836280356720.0740157880.65401578811.2411.894015788TT1.206183.20645311.441862697420.0793666858371810.357507004285591624134242WETL
2025-11-15 03:00:03FORECAST20264812832.68423.8128.2470.253578443753450.0877953230.75779532311.2411.997795323TT0.684181.68445311.440947489430.078974710785470.334297871792221624134242WETL
2025-11-14 23:00:02FORECAST20264812832.07224.74628.4091.62559127124740.0570866450.79708664510.4211.217086645TT0.072000000000003177.07245312.437494797030.507895664352440.307877441878011624134242WETL
2025-11-14 19:00:03FORECAST20264812834.73625.80830.2721.5927171499310.110236280.7102362810.4211.13023628TT2.736180.73645312.41365760610.497586590341930.428325898664541624134242WETL
2025-11-14 15:00:02FORECAST20264812832.34225.28628.8141.68656756160410.0925197350.77251973510.4211.192519735TT0.342177.34245312.481703742690.527021505127220.318688148641951624134242WETL
2025-11-14 11:00:02FORECAST20264812832.4526.67229.5612.12791501671270.0657480670.6357480671.191.825748067FF0.45177.4545312.80148481060.665614976778490.323330494837911624134242DRYM
2025-11-14 07:00:04FORECAST20264812833.87226.63630.2541.68497347955810.07874020.81874021.22.0187402FF1.872179.87245312.480548090690.52652143641060.386784847510811624134242DRYM
2025-11-14 03:00:04FORECAST20264812832.91828.92230.921.07365972154380.0523622330.7723622330.821.592362233FF0.918177.91845312.037022512630.335021582702260.343758748360741624134242DRYM
2025-11-13 23:00:01FORECAST20264812831.78423.21627.54.8774639646280.3358269531.0358269532.563.595826953TF-0.216168.78445314.785634738091.53535559001760.295165879589711624144256DRYH
2025-11-13 19:00:03FORECAST20264812831.9126.07828.9944.99116651401120.2645670721.0045670722.833.834567072TF-0.09169.9145314.867387627971.57155556148290.300407276583271624144256DRYH
2025-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20264812832.30623.03627.6714.64530217146250.1622048120.9822048122.753.732204812TF0.306170.30645314.618635523641.46149863078050.317146950355471624134242DRYM
2025-11-13 11:00:02FORECAST20264812830.0221.36225.6913.14035845077470.0448819140.6448819142.93.544881914TF-1.98169.0245313.533704061450.984608217152070.226586701218121614134236DRYL
2025-11-13 07:00:04FORECAST20264812828.79622.06425.433.45547277380550.0448819140.9148819143.14.014881914TF-3.204166.79645313.761217047511.08419334298370.184828276072711614134236WETL
2025-11-13 03:00:04FORECAST20264812826.04220.4823.2614.26025547323010.1712599351.0012599353.464.461259935TF-5.958163.04245314.341445549941.33917486386720.109720541791911614144248WETL
2025-11-12 23:00:03FORECAST20264812826.83421.7424.2875.23416340517540.0212598540.6112598542.953.561259854TF-5.166152.83445315.042024882371.64898143773160.128644868222121614134236DRYL
2025-11-12 19:00:02FORECAST20264812827.35621.97424.6654.24717856655410.0212598540.4612598542.452.911259854FF-4.644154.35645314.332026898891.33502424742650.142288290466081614124224DRYL
2025-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20264812826.52822.96424.7463.826745196252200.42.212.61FF-5.472153.52845314.0290426951.20170913061680.12108171201211614124224DRYL
2025-11-12 11:00:02FORECAST20264812824.821.6523.2255.309243487974600.882.112.99FF-7.2151.845315.095961719721.67292118284750.0841985364529091614134236DRYL
2025-11-12 07:00:06FORECAST20264812825.48421.39823.4415.060810047996100.832.193.02FF-6.516150.48445314.917450133991.59373739592740.0976417950048721614134236DRYL
2025-11-12 03:00:04FORECAST20264812825.5220.49823.0095.596122338725600.882.062.94FF-6.48149.5245315.30195812231.76446833129210.098390467361441614134236DRYL
2025-11-11 23:00:02FORECAST20264812825.12422.08223.6038.63173337915040.1523622871.6023622871.893.492362287TF-6.876138.12445317.472537942152.74033830271880.0903829499377171614153245DRYM
2025-11-11 19:00:03FORECAST20264812824.65621.9223.2889.32875553455840.1523622871.5823622872.113.692362287TF-7.344140.65645317.968577660492.96625112866590.0815537960122071614153245DRYM
2025-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20264812826.04222.7324.3868.88466671404540.1196851041.5596851041.983.539685104TF-5.958141.04245317.652640893392.82223784517410.109720541791911614153245DRYM
2025-11-11 11:00:03FORECAST20264812826.58224.29625.4398.92798576940650.153543391.243543391.93.14354339TF-5.418142.58245317.683474926212.83627354331680.12239321755011614143236DRYL
2025-11-11 07:00:06FORECAST20264812826.58222.22624.4048.77030788852280.153543391.243543391.783.02354339FF-5.418143.58245317.571225222042.78519742173270.12239321755011614143236DRYL
2025-11-11 03:00:03FORECAST20264812825.91619.59822.7579.42651968813070.1570866991.2770866991.933.207086699TF-6.084144.91645318.038081867212.99799224029650.106903785271511614143236DRYL
2025-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20264812826.13220.2123.17116.136447969890.295275751.805275752.123.92527575TF-5.868132.13245322.767413509795.20831957447670.111764765911941614152230DRYL
2025-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20264812828.74223.28826.01515.9964926421410.295275751.805275752.424.22527575TF-3.258138.74245322.669590194245.16158172538490.183103167823611614152230WETL
2025-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20264812827.39223.64825.5219.9855711083960.311023792.341023792.695.03102379TF-4.608136.39245325.444215724646.50418851518120.143263925857411614152230WETL
2025-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20264812827.15822.22624.69215.7997583221220.2807088132.2107088131.984.190708813TF-4.842129.15845322.532021765775.09592799504440.137002528681781614152230WETL
2025-11-10 07:00:04FORECAST20264812828.5822.22625.40319.9031149843220.2807088132.2107088132.14.310708813TF-3.42127.5845325.387147002866.47621780121850.177988234394291614152230WETL
2025-11-10 03:00:04FORECAST20264812826.52822.71224.6220.0357814985990.1944882942.0944882942.464.554488294TF-5.472124.52845325.478960991546.52122534481760.12108171201211614152230WETL
2025-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20264812826.1520.40823.27922.7936776720730.0350393891.9850393892.894.875039389TF-5.85113.1545327.38061732077.46220826729230.112176848493181614152230WETL
2025-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20264812825.5220.40822.96423.324598194370.0350393891.9850393892.924.905039389TF-6.48110.5245327.745177155577.64452456729620.098390467361441614152230WETL
2025-11-09 15:00:03FORECAST20264812826.61822.87424.74623.32591279179301.72.944.64TF-5.382108.61845327.746079221947.6449764617830.123273057361781614152230WETL
2025-11-09 11:00:03FORECAST20264812823.30619.59821.45219.1883331857402.113.165.27TF-8.694107.30645324.891938044526.23413475655930.0597147819948551614152230WETL
2025-11-09 07:00:04FORECAST20264812826.49221.34423.91819.39629341157602.113.215.32TF-5.508124.49245325.03610800286.3044957201790.120212869333921614152230WETL
2025-11-09 03:00:04FORECAST20264812827.71622.33425.02518.170526808230.0448819142.0648819143.215.274881914TF-4.284126.71645324.185236805855.89061653621320.152247176901721614152230WETL
2025-11-08 23:00:02FORECAST20264812831.89225.66428.77810.5269158239020.0456693161.1456693161.452.595669316FF-0.108136.89245318.819205528053.35618293963690.299655937983011624143242DRYM
2025-11-08 19:00:02FORECAST20264812831.89225.66428.77810.7066274227260.0456693161.1456693161.442.585669316FF-0.108132.89245318.946567759153.41484206875430.299655937983011624143242DRYM
2025-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20264812831.74824.15227.9513.7527573697360.1157480941.6757480941.533.205748094TF-0.252132.74845321.096549790924.41596294153370.293676100306381624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-08 11:00:04FORECAST20264812831.67619.3125.49310.2878882372480.1515748852.1715748851.033.201574885TF-0.324135.67645318.649715739773.27823266236160.290707020124651624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-08 07:00:05FORECAST20264812831.67619.3125.49314.4321233717910.1409449582.1009449581.13.200944958TF-0.324134.67645321.573787082074.64099256830270.290707020124651624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-08 03:00:05FORECAST20264812830.68619.38225.03418.2960487160040.0952756422.3152756421.283.595275642TF-1.314125.68645324.272490181935.93290527762840.251373914202631624152235DRYL
2025-11-07 23:00:05FORECAST20264812830.30825.4327.8692.17725918411510.1094488780.8994488781.842.739448878FF-1.692138.30845312.837215161540.681127699843450.237132861725981614134236DRYL
2025-11-07 19:00:03FORECAST20264812830.30825.4327.8691.8084092721820.1094488780.8994488781.862.759448878FF-1.692142.30845312.570020743660.565254523718960.237132861725981614134236DRYL
2025-11-07 15:00:04FORECAST20264812831.35225.89828.6252.28890334024630.0460630170.8360630171.742.576063017FF-0.648142.35245312.91804070980.716239148603990.277522818710851624134242DRYM
2025-11-07 11:00:04FORECAST20264812840.139.05639.57800.1472441740.3072441741.581.887244174FF8.1159.145311.256382862300.677202449551851634125240DRYM
2025-11-07 07:00:04FORECAST20264812840.139.05639.5780.0728460784248250.1472441740.3072441741.72.007244174FF8.1161.145311.309415348950.0226776700848960.677202449551851634124232DRYL
2025-11-07 03:00:05FORECAST20264812842.94442.4442.6920.95987643860470.0228346580.1128346582.012.122834658FF10.944161.94445311.954393445660.299437672187710.788529789942051644124236DRYL