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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 16, 2025

[ Saturday, November 15, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, November 17, 2025 ]

DAY 47 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/17/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.42°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.65°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.820
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 198

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.15 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.68 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.68 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 46
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 312.34 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 127

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 112.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-17 07:00:03OBSERVATION20264712744.4238.8700641.6450300.151.681011.68TT12.42198.4246312.34356165947 00.8199990787122616 441552112.5WETH
2025-11-17 03:00:02OBSERVATION20264712744.4238.8700641.6450300.151.681011.68TT12.42198.4246312.34356165947 00.8199990787122616 441552112.5WETH
2025-11-16 11:00:01FORECAST20264712740.89235.5138.20100.0917323331.6217323331011.621732333TT8.892194.89246312.3435616594700.6870276315108816341552100WETH
2025-11-16 07:00:04FORECAST20264712740.7336.03238.38100.133858341.663858341011.66385834TT8.73194.7346312.3435616594700.6800351040480816341552100WETH
2025-11-16 03:00:03FORECAST20264712741.01835.74438.38100.1763780481.7063780481011.706378048TT9.018195.01846312.3435616594700.6924203345069916341552100WETH
2025-11-15 23:00:02FORECAST20264712741.12635.638.3630.19479280.122047311.742047311011.74204731TT9.126192.12646312.484812531960.0608697915905770.697009871827781634154280WETH
2025-11-15 19:00:01FORECAST20264712740.5535.58238.0660.2305120.1255906191.7455906191011.745590619TT8.55191.5546312.510706154820.072037467897160.672190066814851634154280WETH
2025-11-15 15:00:01FORECAST20264712740.4635.36637.9130.23976160.1366142471.7566142471011.756614247TT8.46191.4646312.517411007560.0749296744910310.66823860323841634154280WETH
2025-11-15 11:00:01FORECAST20264712740.71235.56438.13800.1826772641.8026772641011.802677264TT8.712191.71246312.3435616594700.6792541360276416341552100WETH
2025-11-15 07:00:03FORECAST20264712740.71233.69237.20200.2149607461.8249607461011.824960746TT8.712191.71246312.3435616594700.6792541360276416341552100WETH
2025-11-15 03:00:03FORECAST20264712740.67633.27836.97700.204724521.914724521011.91472452TT8.676190.67646312.3435616594700.6776898223006816341552100WETH
2025-11-14 23:00:01FORECAST20264712739.66832.95436.3111.48847760.1783465531.1583465531011.158346553TT7.668186.66846313.421136044830.466520340369280.632699636884081634144264WETH
2025-11-14 19:00:03FORECAST20264712739.88435.2437.5621.38250080.1468504731.0168504731011.016850473TT7.884187.88446313.344549411890.433199090237580.642520888248131634144264WETH
2025-11-14 15:00:02FORECAST20264712739.66833.02636.3471.49802240.1822835631.1022835631011.102283563TT7.668186.66846313.428032807630.469522213933760.62986935733521634144264WETH
2025-11-14 11:00:02FORECAST20264712740.08231.85635.9691.88487597976750.1523622871.76236228701.762362287FF8.082187.08246313.707419978190.591299580591710.648597732772531634154280DRYVH
2025-11-14 07:00:04FORECAST20264712739.68634.03436.861.42540648226240.2854332251.93543322501.935433225FF7.686187.68646313.375558698360.446687552751260.630690447014121634154280DRYVH
2025-11-14 03:00:04FORECAST20264712739.70432.6336.1670.994029134540090.2759844011.53598440101.535984401FF7.704186.70446313.063634849250.311194374005170.631510941183481634154280DRYVH
2025-11-13 23:00:01FORECAST20264712739.09232.1835.6363.5278304813480.1212599081.6812599081.583.261259908TF7.092179.09246314.890914154071.11088176525220.603301075240361634154280DRYVH
2025-11-13 19:00:02FORECAST20264712739.57832.55836.0683.85638523568150.2267717761.9867717761.583.566771776TF7.578179.57846315.126994943141.21525109066340.625755097370971634154280DRYVH
2025-11-13 15:00:02FORECAST20264712740.22632.93636.5813.84851385737190.2625985671.9925985671.583.572598567TF8.226180.22646315.121341320841.21274884882690.65503101514941634154280DRYVH
2025-11-13 11:00:02FORECAST20264712740.92830.3835.6542.92157169422920.0917323331.9217323331.583.501732333TF8.928180.92846314.454773501720.918702165377880.685727040891611634154280DRYVH
2025-11-13 07:00:04FORECAST20264712739.54229.67834.613.23184223289180.2161418492.0861418491.883.966141849TF7.542179.54246314.678065049451.01698986039150.624105346230581634154280DRYVH
2025-11-13 03:00:04FORECAST20264712737.86824.90831.3883.35539987197330.2334646932.1234646932.174.293464693TF5.868178.86846314.766936456571.05616893828780.545376364568541634154280WETL
2025-11-12 23:00:02FORECAST20264712737.86827.35632.6125.12161226095920.1566929981.4866929982.053.536692998TF5.868167.86846316.034277308181.61860502954490.545376364568541634144264DRYH
2025-11-12 19:00:02FORECAST20264712738.22827.91433.0714.13446109373470.1566929981.2166929981.672.886692998FF6.228169.22846315.326650584061.30370576865750.562571353602621634144264DRYH
2025-11-12 15:00:02FORECAST20264712736.84226.94231.8923.82674519625220.1358268451.2958268451.312.605826845FF4.842168.84246315.105705378081.20582924436720.496011626006931624144256DRYH
2025-11-12 11:00:02FORECAST20264712735.54622.6429.0935.30924348797460.251968641.921968641.072.99196864TF3.546168.54646316.168577803911.67861596280760.433838098794971624154270DRYH
2025-11-12 07:00:05FORECAST20264712736.08622.1929.1385.06081004799610.251968641.871968641.153.02196864TF4.086167.08646315.990743274991.59916912863980.45963419601291624154270DRYH
2025-11-12 03:00:04FORECAST20264712734.93421.90228.4185.59612233872560.3122048931.8622048931.082.942204893TF2.934165.93446316.373792905571.77046644986620.404945223896331624154270DRYH
2025-11-11 23:00:02FORECAST20264712734.46623.57629.0217.66658136091270.6842523382.3042523381.043.344252338TF2.466155.46646317.850443402652.43682628494860.383186503406371624154270DRYH
2025-11-11 19:00:03FORECAST20264712734.64624.2629.4538.3752134132980.6842523382.4742523381.073.544252338TF2.646157.64646318.354058345852.6662831796360.391515810627811624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20264712735.31224.38629.8498.13280466892860.6669294942.41692949413.416929494TF3.312157.31246318.181883818792.587711110290.422740171081711624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20264712736.64425.731.1728.03264600231770.6779531221.9679531221.022.987953122TF4.644157.64446318.110713634622.55527075217160.486468646634091624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-11 07:00:05FORECAST20264712737.09426.43831.7667.88853784470950.6779531221.8879531220.982.867953122TF5.094159.09446318.008282295872.5086203698220.50815981949571634153260DRYH
2025-11-11 03:00:03FORECAST20264712736.60826.20431.4068.49180973052920.696850771.956850771.093.04685077TF4.608160.60846318.436834917242.70410501330910.48473423151131624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20264712734.86225.77230.31714.1403705674630.9968509322.7068509320.923.626850932TF2.862147.86246322.417763067074.55910664730080.40157668894371624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20264712736.2327.6831.95514.1684549460660.9968509322.7468509321.183.926850932TF4.23152.2346322.437413704674.56843996900060.466546562982471624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20264712736.82427.08631.95518.0717082640221.2685046223.2785046221.444.718504622TF4.824150.82446325.154929009095.87610501766110.495143905995441624152235WETL
2025-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20264712736.06827.53631.80214.0076109280961.2027565552.7427565551.173.912756555TF4.068144.06846322.324852179764.51500112179020.458770964114861624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-10 07:00:04FORECAST20264712734.28628.27431.2818.115367604871.2027565552.7427565551.294.032756555TF2.286141.28646325.185173321945.89084895438030.374910835245071624152235WETL
2025-11-10 03:00:04FORECAST20264712735.25826.52830.89318.733609741941.2531502832.8131502831.554.363150283TF3.258140.25846325.613090892066.09990857163850.420187461002211624152235WETL
2025-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20264712732.39626.45629.42622.5270174513910.7925201132.9525201131.894.842520113TF0.396129.39646328.224046043197.39390881318130.29209409777481624152235WETL
2025-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20264712731.49624.38627.94123.0492182383430.7925201132.9525201131.924.872520113TF-0.504127.49646328.581504414447.57354680433150.255896173930421624152235WETL
2025-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20264712730.52425.93428.22923.3259127917930.5858270882.6458270881.994.635827088TF-1.476123.52446328.77071607797.66887705172820.219602688036211614152230WETL
2025-11-09 11:00:03FORECAST20264712730.86622.38826.62719.188333185741.2862211673.6062211671.665.266221167TT-1.134125.86646325.927400056136.25400354663910.232024445817361614152230WETL
2025-11-09 07:00:04FORECAST20264712735.27624.11629.69619.3962934115761.2862211673.6062211671.715.316221167TT3.276140.27646326.071023208156.32456923915810.421037997019761624152235WETL
2025-11-09 03:00:04FORECAST20264712735.40225.6130.50617.8246819890231.2562998913.4162998911.815.226299891TT3.402141.40246324.98374230425.79273185817480.427001853946031624152235WETL
2025-11-08 23:00:02FORECAST20264712736.03232.07234.05210.2331607613130.3854332791.3054332791.242.545433279FF4.032147.03246319.670179760223.27123634008420.457045087461671624143242DRYM
2025-11-08 19:00:02FORECAST20264712736.03232.07234.05210.4128723601370.3854332791.3054332791.232.535433279FF4.032143.03246319.797153637923.33000694196690.457045087461671624143242DRYM
2025-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20264712735.79831.96433.88112.9555330571860.6500003511.9700003511.123.090000351TF3.798142.79846321.587454004624.16633689113330.445848065830321624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-08 11:00:03FORECAST20264712735.36626.56430.9659.04467644701821.086614762.096614760.953.04661476TF3.366146.36646318.829004436052.8837051870490.425296129171681624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-08 07:00:05FORECAST20264712735.40226.8731.13613.279934638741.0622052982.0322052981.033.062205298TF3.402145.40246321.815036246524.27368264711760.427001853946031624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-08 03:00:04FORECAST20264712733.76425.55629.6617.4587954684641.1736226812.4436226811.063.503622681TF1.764136.76446324.729989204495.66939446399780.35124707484161624152235DRYL
2025-11-07 23:00:04FORECAST20264712736.46430.48833.4761.17217335794610.2724410921.2524410921.382.632441092FF4.464150.46446313.192490255180.367115892985910.477799786294561624144256DRYH
2025-11-07 19:00:03FORECAST20264712736.46430.48833.4760.8033234460130.2724410921.2524410921.42.652441092FF4.464154.46446312.925628842970.251380494507920.477799786294561624144256DRYH
2025-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20264712735.72631.80233.7641.89672805546630.1952756961.3252756961.22.525275696FF3.726152.72646313.715975260220.595033891724020.44241107698631624144256DRYH
2025-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20264712744.16835.99640.08200.1255906190.9455906190.791.735590619FF12.168161.16846312.3435616594700.809319027601361644135267.5DRYH
2025-11-07 07:00:04FORECAST20264712744.16835.99640.0820.404847678424820.1255906190.9455906190.911.855590619FF12.168163.16846312.637052160790.126570384756880.809319027601361644134254DRYMH
2025-11-07 03:00:05FORECAST20264712744.54636.51840.5321.07677563860470.0625984590.9125984591.192.102598459FF12.546160.54646313.123494360660.337163750602330.821498802778971644134254DRYMH
2025-11-06 23:00:03FORECAST20264712741.01833.15237.0853.56982854688010.0976378480.5776378483.554.127637848TF9.018150.01846314.921102562561.12421434194280.689576748299711634134248WETM
2025-11-06 19:00:03FORECAST20264712740.94632.95436.953.52970814641290.0976378480.5776378483.423.997637848TF8.946147.94646314.892263897381.1114777891210.686498616933831634134248DRYM
2025-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20264712741.10833.3537.2294.98482500455230.0980315490.6180315493.694.308031549TF9.108152.10846315.936328970841.57488731250030.693405817544191634134248WETM
2025-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20264712739.97436.78838.3812.1806410610324003.553.55FF7.974160.97446313.920837577350.684548668334860.643744571193751634114216DRYL
2025-11-06 07:00:06FORECAST20264712739.97436.78838.3811.5856607252047003.643.64FF7.974165.97446313.491349602970.497090920756830.643744571193751634114216DRYL
2025-11-06 03:00:05FORECAST20264712742.92642.67442.80.8971999017569700.033.163.19FF10.926169.92646312.993571797490.280817801867270.76585080741431644114218DRYL