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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 15, 2025

[ Friday, November 14, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 16, 2025 ]

DAY 46 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/16/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.44°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.74°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.59°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.779
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 191

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.29 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.72 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.13 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.85 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 47
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 313.43 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 126

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 112.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-16 07:00:03OBSERVATION20264612644.4399838.7399241.5899500.292.729.1311.85TT12.43998191.4399847313.42661701671 00.7794525739462516 441552112.5WETH
2025-11-16 03:00:03OBSERVATION20264612644.4399838.7399241.5899500.292.729.1311.85TT12.43998191.4399847313.42661701671 00.7794525739462516 441552112.5WETH
2025-11-15 11:00:01FORECAST20264612640.87436.6838.7770.14372320.3807088672.8107088679.1311.940708867TT8.874187.87447313.530447042910.0450615991464380.646793478266821634154280WETH
2025-11-15 07:00:03FORECAST20264612640.69437.0438.8670.505039850.3708663422.8008663429.1311.930866342TT8.694187.69447313.791305857520.158477114041590.639382459037241634154280WETH
2025-11-15 03:00:03FORECAST20264612640.0136.91438.4620.529049450.4688978912.8988978919.1312.028897891TT8.01187.0147313.808631522920.166020283912450.610762207940581634154280WETH
2025-11-14 23:00:01FORECAST20264612640.04636.96838.5072.18957760.5574806162.1674806169.1311.297480616TT8.046184.04647315.004332127230.689726429528740.612285167779131634154280WETH
2025-11-14 19:00:02FORECAST20264612640.74837.16638.9572.16497760.4531498512.0631498519.1311.193149851TT8.748184.74847314.986655122060.681939052638180.64161141458091634154280WETH
2025-11-14 15:00:02FORECAST20264612640.04636.35638.2012.21142240.4988191672.1088191679.1311.238819167TT8.046184.04647315.020028381950.696642347212480.608235126294041634154280WETH
2025-11-14 11:00:02FORECAST20264612640.06436.51838.2912.57859597976750.4240159771.61401597701.614015977FF8.064184.06447315.28372516990.812989346209220.60899772120571634154280DRYVH
2025-11-14 07:00:04FORECAST20264612640.33436.75238.5432.15868328226240.4519687481.65196874801.651968748FF8.334185.33447314.982131989830.679946662537830.620384851361481634154280DRYVH
2025-11-14 03:00:04FORECAST20264612639.68636.2337.9581.73074993454010.4417325221.26173252201.261732522FF7.686183.68647314.674447025340.544622778590550.592899598142591634144264DRYH
2025-11-13 23:00:01FORECAST20264612639.09235.85237.4724.1409680.5775593673.13755936703.137559367TF7.092177.09247316.403044205221.31021488115640.567292712503821634154280DRYVH
2025-11-13 19:00:02FORECAST20264612639.27235.81637.5444.10288720.5074805893.33748058903.337480589TF7.272177.27247316.375815030011.29805428187620.575087469184261634154280DRYVH
2025-11-13 15:00:01FORECAST20264612639.23635.70837.4724.08714320.5559058123.30590581203.305905812TF7.236177.23647316.364556720311.29302724672040.573530762775891634154280DRYVH
2025-11-13 11:00:02FORECAST20264612639.00235.34837.1753.3390080.5149609083.41496090803.414960908TF7.002177.00247315.829056584871.05455574656930.56338529510631634154280DRYVH
2025-11-13 07:00:04FORECAST20264612638.28235.47436.8783.482980950.6531499593.75314995903.753149959TF6.282177.28247315.93218861451.10038579443610.531934796005361634154280DRYVH
2025-11-13 03:00:03FORECAST20264612638.5735.16836.8693.446474550.5988192214.05881922104.058819221TF6.57177.5747315.90604158281.08876213250630.544550129884271634154280WETM
2025-11-12 23:00:02FORECAST20264612637.29233.65635.4745.21766165467160.4263781833.3363781830.043.376378183TF5.292167.29247317.171830891151.65489529998270.488403222080711624154270DRYH
2025-11-12 19:00:02FORECAST20264612637.41833.51235.4654.25906053918220.2763781022.6863781020.042.726378102TF5.418168.41847316.487467976231.34793928600330.493946761138071624154270DRYH
2025-11-12 15:00:01FORECAST20264612637.9433.69235.8163.81315819065120.2614174642.4314174640.042.471417464FF5.94168.9447316.168561842361.20560074121560.516913355228861634154280DRYVH
2025-11-12 11:00:02FORECAST20264612638.62433.33235.9785.00358326457020.6318901052.7018901050.042.741890105TF6.624169.62447317.019140881991.58623166786560.54691089975231634154280DRYVH
2025-11-12 07:00:05FORECAST20264612638.06632.7235.3935.02084055873980.5799215732.6399215730.132.769921573TF6.066168.06647317.031452610931.59176437566520.522451501100671634154280DRYVH
2025-11-12 03:00:04FORECAST20264612637.23831.85634.5475.52353191870470.5744097592.6044097590.032.634409759TF5.238168.23847317.389846844731.75311294971970.486028042841931624154270DRYH
2025-11-11 23:00:02FORECAST20264612635.99632.95434.4755.57973342464780.7704728572.5604728570.12.660472857TF3.996157.99647317.429887323061.77117415227870.431704946297671624154270DRYH
2025-11-11 19:00:03FORECAST20264612636.78832.50434.6466.53441562500590.7547248172.7647248170.12.864724817TF4.788159.78847318.109173346052.07865755277010.466262141570811624154270DRYH
2025-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20264612637.1332.61234.8716.40324340604950.7728350632.5728350630.182.752835063TF5.13159.1347318.015937824642.03633345689430.481279255172551624154270DRYH
2025-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20264612636.87831.9134.3946.64664928189870.4149608542.2249608540.092.314960854FF4.878157.87847318.188922925272.11489017606940.470210236364981624154270DRYH
2025-11-11 07:00:05FORECAST20264612637.11230.66833.896.61589882109420.4149608542.1049608540.092.194960854FF5.112159.11247318.167074910992.10496117581460.480488030530861624154270DRYH
2025-11-11 03:00:03FORECAST20264612637.2231.04634.1337.05485579300890.4232285752.2832285750.072.353228575FF5.22161.2247318.478789528542.24682193325590.485236422396741624154270DRYH
2025-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20264612636.4131.7334.0712.5728636122920.5125987022.4925987020.142.632598702TF4.41150.4147322.367767412314.05308597267390.44972085220281624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20264612636.3232.5434.4312.8554139482420.5125987022.6825987020.252.932598702TF4.32153.3247322.565439852464.14671225470020.445794204613021624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20264612636.26631.65833.96214.6870876754080.7586618273.0186618270.433.448661827TF4.266151.26647323.843445241544.75631707336850.443440740214381624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20264612636.06830.32633.19712.5364968930390.732283862.182283860.532.71228386TF4.068145.06847322.342314920284.04104342949330.434829044150851624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-10 07:00:04FORECAST20264612634.28629.91232.09914.7089770428150.732283862.242283860.592.83228386TF2.286144.28647323.858682086494.76362991992650.35917420621851624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-10 03:00:04FORECAST20264612633.85429.26431.55915.1523495206410.6531499592.3731499590.743.113149959TF1.854141.85447324.167124415744.91189357224830.341518634927941624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20264612632.70228.56230.63220.5631235343171.1566935383.2866935380.764.046693538TF0.702133.70247327.903402184416.74271816644070.296184744930221624152235WETL
2025-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20264612634.4328.00431.21720.9880324170221.1566935383.2466935380.834.076693538TF2.43133.4347328.194643832056.88815982384020.365129111312651624152235WETL
2025-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20264612632.6326.7829.70521.5454367008821.1055124083.1755124080.874.045512408TF0.63129.6347328.576224345267.07931824304560.293444957186891624152235WETL
2025-11-09 11:00:03FORECAST20264612632.57628.99430.78518.2225926149720.8192917813.2792917810.73.979291781TF0.576131.57647326.293505671245.94591362675810.291397844869971624152235DRYL
2025-11-09 07:00:04FORECAST20264612635.04230.21832.6316.7711184141470.8192917813.2792917810.754.029291781TF3.042142.04247325.29031381055.45548237189080.390785815712691624152235WETL
2025-11-09 03:00:04FORECAST20264612635.31229.64232.47716.1254999388480.7562996213.1062996210.863.966299621TF3.312143.31247324.842902363385.2382542021960.402265449894921624152235DRYL
2025-11-08 23:00:02FORECAST20264612637.0429.49833.2698.66093205995030.7129925111.4929925110.672.162992511FF5.04148.0447319.616347961382.76817547494290.477323931720321624143242DRYM
2025-11-08 19:00:02FORECAST20264612636.66230.07433.3688.87331505793910.7129925111.4929925110.662.152992511FF4.662143.66247319.766428376522.83738826393680.460740468208691624143242DRYM
2025-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20264612636.48229.2132.84610.5337905802220.9129926191.8929926190.552.442992619FF4.482144.48247320.937016429153.3806833205060.452865737429881624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-08 11:00:03FORECAST20264612636.03230.97433.5035.90976977795380.9326776691.4926776690.471.962677669FF4.032148.03247317.664904748971.8773264536020.433266474016381624144256DRYH
2025-11-08 07:00:05FORECAST20264612636.66228.52632.5947.73571228097730.8980319811.4680319810.531.998031981FF4.662146.66247318.96159612112.46739513627410.460740468208691624144256DRYH
2025-11-08 03:00:04FORECAST20264612634.91627.24831.08210.7347924807351.0547249791.7147249790.622.334724979FF2.916139.91647321.078382357873.44670980466180.385460383692271624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-07 23:00:04FORECAST20264612639.75832.12635.9420.444127252115420.5244097321.8244097320.542.364409732FF7.758150.75847313.747345728350.139343746516840.595978936218361634154280DRYVH
2025-11-07 19:00:02FORECAST20264612639.75835.99637.8770.0752773401823460.5244097321.8244097320.562.384409732FF7.758154.75847313.481004392040.0235980162083230.595978936218361634154280DRYVH
2025-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20264612639.09235.90637.4990.944590318204630.5862207891.7862207890.542.326220789FF7.092154.09247314.108324333860.296703682033250.567292712503821634154280DRYVH
2025-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20264612638.87633.49436.1850.434403561884960.031496081.291496080.321.61149608FF6.876153.87647313.740327590210.136289915812140.557904589233331634144264DRYH
2025-11-07 07:00:04FORECAST20264612638.87633.49436.1851.32705247842480.031496081.291496080.441.73149608FF6.876155.87647314.383880993310.417203908448990.557904589233331634144264DRYH
2025-11-07 03:00:05FORECAST20264612639.07434.59236.8332.07927483860470.031496081.351496080.692.04149608FF7.074153.07447314.925062422970.65481575834210.566511742544291634144264DRYH
2025-11-06 23:00:03FORECAST20264612635.29429.06632.182.992810938770.3677167340.8077167343.224.027716734TF3.294146.29447315.580911084230.944474002759890.401497393448451624134242WETM
2025-11-06 19:00:03FORECAST20264612634.17829.80431.9912.95721471787350.3677167340.8077167343.093.897716734TF2.178144.17847315.555384218910.933165026516380.354730270413721624134242DRYM
2025-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20264612634.5230.48832.5044.41914850942450.3688978370.9388978373.274.208897837TF2.52147.5247316.601873647711.39911069801130.368867610965961624134242WETM
2025-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20264612643.2536.87840.0642.472298661032400.363.193.55FF11.25158.2547315.207409833280.779286857278310.735054947733581644124236DRYL
2025-11-06 07:00:06FORECAST20264612643.2536.87840.0641.877318325204700.363.283.64TF11.25163.2547314.779867661210.590942013965880.735054947733581644124236DRYL
2025-11-06 03:00:05FORECAST20264612646.05837.52641.7921.01527990175700.52.693.19FF14.058164.05847314.159274992630.318959597850560.825884884927151644134254DRYMH
2025-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20264612637.29231.47834.38516.6141339102910.216535551.706535554.46.10653555TT5.292135.29247325.181591575275.4026105075930.488403222080711624152235WETL
2025-11-05 19:00:02FORECAST20264612637.29231.47834.38517.7109778193720.216535551.706535554.626.32653555TT5.292132.29247325.940323171595.7727218341310.488403222080711624152235WETL
2025-11-05 15:00:04FORECAST20264612635.0630.9232.9912.5247048550750.2169292510.8869292514.75.586929251TF3.06128.0647322.33406135454.03713898320280.391548291999971624133231.5WETM
2025-11-05 11:00:04FORECAST20264612630.57828.3129.4449.88290809222100.424.585TF-1.422127.57847320.478751018013.16726204182080.220726006830451614123218WETL
2025-11-05 10:04:52FORECAST20264612630.57828.3129.4449.88290809222100.424.585TF-1.422127.57847320.478751018013.16726204182080.220726006830451614123218WETL
2025-11-05 07:00:07FORECAST20264612630.57828.3129.444000.424.715.13TF-1.422131.57847313.4266170167100.220726006830451614125230WETL
2025-11-05 03:00:04FORECAST20264612635.13234.71834.925000.514.65.11TF3.132140.13247313.4266170167100.394602337034341624135252.5WETM