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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 14, 2025

[ Thursday, November 13, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 15, 2025 ]

DAY 45 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/15/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.49°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.19°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.545
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 189

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.24 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.44 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.66 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 1 in
SWE DAY: 48
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 315.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.43 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 125

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 80.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-15 07:00:03OBSERVATION20264512538.8799633.4900436.1851.363186251.242.449.6612.1TT6.87996188.8799648315.48511901464 0.430064976320370.5454501764147516 34154280WETH
2025-11-15 03:00:02OBSERVATION20264512538.8799633.4900436.1851.363186251.242.449.6612.1TT6.87996188.8799648315.48511901464 0.430064976320370.5454501764147516 34154280WETH
2025-11-14 11:00:01FORECAST20264512536.30229.82233.0623.36048237976751.1870085151.18700851501.187008515FF4.302186.30248316.914218961061.06498464871640.439614480168261624144256DRYH
2025-11-14 07:00:03FORECAST20264512536.66229.2132.9362.96172568226241.2015754521.20157545201.201575452FF4.662186.66248316.629480584190.937769664407620.453887523353841624144256DRYH
2025-11-14 03:00:04FORECAST20264512535.97829.85832.9182.48045953454010.822835090.8228350900.82283509FF3.978185.97848316.28544075960.784533237168360.426834972141871624134242DRYM
2025-11-13 23:00:01FORECAST20264512535.49230.68633.0894.84295360.9846462012.56464620102.564646201TF3.492180.49248317.970274903691.53991528753780.407812870977311624154270DRYH
2025-11-13 19:00:01FORECAST20264512535.49230.25432.8734.82307681.2523628812.83236288102.832362881TF3.492180.49248317.956141714741.53352689052190.407812870977311624154270DRYH
2025-11-13 15:00:01FORECAST20264512535.40231.49633.4494.80438081.1696856712.74968567102.749685671TF3.402180.40248317.942847469931.52751851188190.404312574816421624154270DRYH
2025-11-13 11:00:02FORECAST20264512535.2432.82834.0344.00999761.3153550412.89535504102.895355041TF3.24180.2448317.37739832191.27268260556510.398031477383631624154270DRYH
2025-11-13 07:00:03FORECAST20264512535.16832.23433.7014.130452951.2224416053.10244160503.102441605TF3.168181.16848317.463212931811.31126686437070.39524823197221624154270DRYH
2025-11-13 03:00:03FORECAST20264512534.73632.6333.6834.092470551.2925203833.46252038303.462520383TF2.736180.73648317.436156404641.29909812159120.378665403841071624154270DRYH
2025-11-12 23:00:02FORECAST20264512533.09829.78631.4425.71468005467160.9023626922.95236269202.952362692TF1.098172.09848318.589405468791.82063652106220.318016528248961624154270DRYH
2025-11-12 19:00:02FORECAST20264512533.67429.4831.5774.77487333918220.7807090832.45070908302.450709083FF1.674172.67448317.921864188841.51803663325840.338892219319191624154270DRYH
2025-11-12 15:00:01FORECAST20264512534.3430.27232.3064.32031179065120.8996067852.20960678502.209606785FF2.34173.3448317.598418572611.37212419245140.363657405346061624154270DRYH
2025-11-12 11:00:02FORECAST20264512533.63830.41632.0275.51329526457021.0377958362.10779583602.107795836FF1.638172.63848318.44649670191.75568956228560.337572042993191624154270DRYH
2025-11-12 07:00:05FORECAST20264512533.31428.00430.6595.48902775873981.0385832382.18858323802.188583238FF1.314172.31448318.429270806621.74786710665280.325781895446661624154270DRYH
2025-11-12 03:00:04FORECAST20264512533.58427.9530.7675.68354082307840.976378482.0563784802.05637848FF1.584172.58448318.56731290121.81059032777230.335595522987511624154270DRYH
2025-11-11 23:00:02FORECAST20264512532.73828.97630.8575.93043102464780.8476382531.8676382530.021.887638253FF0.738163.73848318.742427826771.89027998285540.305251467920711624154270DRYH
2025-11-11 19:00:02FORECAST20264512533.2627.96830.6146.71968407319881.0401580422.0901580420.022.110158042FF1.26165.2648319.301495208332.14560517190.323833289390661624154270DRYH
2025-11-11 15:00:01FORECAST20264512532.57627.17629.8766.60612545424250.9791343871.9591343870.021.979134387FF0.576163.57648319.221124973862.10881479922170.299582276417191624154270DRYH
2025-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20264512530.9225.5228.226.38059290895270.8791343331.8791343330.021.899134333FF-1.08162.9248319.061437303232.03580114437720.244566361488481614154260DRYH
2025-11-11 07:00:05FORECAST20264512530.30826.00628.1576.43915858246060.7984256281.7684256280.011.778425628FF-1.692164.30848319.102913353522.05475426320850.225702340544221614154260DRYH
2025-11-11 03:00:03FORECAST20264512530.75824.13427.4466.74580681450290.8397642331.9097642330.021.929764233FF-1.242165.75848319.319980097012.15407089774540.239491942461951614154260DRYH
2025-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20264512531.22625.98828.60712.2931545294391.196851042.036851040.082.11685104FF-0.774156.22648323.217721312323.97336539474560.254307031665711624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20264512532.97227.08630.02912.6959544166211.2417329542.3417329540.082.421732954FF0.972158.97248323.498608255264.10712358424920.313523096215271624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20264512533.29625.26829.28213.6587339269771.2488195722.6088195720.082.688819572TF1.296157.29648324.168826041344.4277357423190.325131828102951624153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20264512530.05625.50227.77911.647168145760.8090555551.8990555550.081.979055555FF-1.944151.05648322.766651184213.75931745818660.218180345698121614153245DRYM
2025-11-10 07:00:04FORECAST20264512529.51625.75427.63511.7174662553210.8090555551.9490555550.152.099055555FF-2.484151.51648322.81577383843.78258293663690.202556595167271614153245DRYM
2025-11-10 03:00:04FORECAST20264512529.76825.53827.65312.9883140478070.9110241142.3810241140.082.461024114FF-2.232149.76848323.702301295144.20434714721930.209762999610851614153245DRYM
2025-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20264512528.79623.61226.20415.0425269012650.9952761282.7652761280.122.885276128TF-3.204142.79648325.129256854494.8907655926220.18279638209441614153245DRYM
2025-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20264512529.01223.43226.22215.6023281894830.9952761282.7652761280.152.915276128TF-2.988141.01248325.516832673125.07882045456690.188594394699021614152230DRYL
2025-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20264512528.1323.0925.6116.125125818840.9507879152.7807879150.162.940787915TF-3.87139.1348325.878291864455.25482845794290.165628001320511614152230DRYL
2025-11-09 11:00:03FORECAST20264512528.52626.09627.31114.2916652877011.5007882123.0307882120.133.160788212TF-3.474140.52648324.608535231144.63919653505450.175706868360181614153245DRYM
2025-11-09 07:00:04FORECAST20264512530.77627.60829.19213.3054950503161.5007882123.0807882120.133.210788212TF-1.224148.77648323.923116898734.30995742857890.240052917468941614153245DRYM
2025-11-09 03:00:04FORECAST20264512530.66827.33829.00312.8276202767261.3972448493.0272448490.183.207244849TF-1.332149.66848323.590361321814.15089428024490.236697816501681614153245DRYM
2025-11-08 23:00:02FORECAST20264512530.57825.66428.1216.10037582960450.2094489321.2794489320.171.449448932FF-1.422152.57848318.862902925821.94518354596620.233921687062211614144248DRYM
2025-11-08 19:00:02FORECAST20264512530.4726.31228.3916.40418337146990.2094489321.2794489320.161.439448932FF-1.53149.4748319.078144746552.04343494878530.230614239071791614144248DRYM
2025-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20264512529.15625.62827.3927.0665877681660.4125986481.3425986480.191.532598648FF-2.844150.15648319.546870089052.2581060035270.192521870352121614144248DRYM
2025-11-08 11:00:03FORECAST20264512532.50426.94229.7234.22330453359150.0807087050.9507087050.081.030708705FF0.504153.50448317.529344192641.34102311887710.29707803003531624134242DRYM
2025-11-08 07:00:05FORECAST20264512531.92826.16829.0485.06149133707960.0744094891.0044094890.11.104409489FF-0.071999999999999151.92848318.125616815661.61019005361560.277397491619421624144256DRYH
2025-11-08 03:00:04FORECAST2026451253226.2429.125.43349870018040.2192914571.0892914570.191.279291457FF014748318.389850410611.72997083835670.279822373839061624144256DRYH
2025-11-07 23:00:03FORECAST20264512533.29629.82231.5591.11875765211540.4555120571.2955120570.541.835512057FF1.296153.29648315.309727680150.352755170628590.325131828102951624144256DRYH
2025-11-07 19:00:02FORECAST20264512537.05830.79433.9260.875662940182350.4555120571.2955120570.561.855512057FF5.058157.05848315.135185449070.275952203045240.469656238285041624144256DRYH
2025-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20264512536.19430.09233.1431.66871591820460.5381892671.1981892670.541.738189267FF4.194157.19448315.704200752160.52682062523920.435346966460481624144256DRYH
2025-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20264512538.35434.44836.4011.0064027618850.7850397941.2550397940.321.575039794FF6.354157.35448315.229070158090.317247406833530.52146492992021634144264DRYH
2025-11-07 07:00:04FORECAST20264512540.7334.44837.5891.89905167842480.7850397941.2550397940.441.695039794FF8.73158.7348315.869251916860.599852033015510.614894699013771634144264DRYH
2025-11-07 03:00:05FORECAST20264512538.67834.59236.6352.77466763860470.8177169771.3177169770.692.007716977FF6.678155.67848316.495809492030.878170680351530.534394670919531634144264DRYH
2025-11-06 23:00:02FORECAST20264512536.26630.52433.3952.91842830030640.114173290.444173293.223.66417329TF4.266153.26648316.598546059340.923970156655440.438191170570221624124228DRYL
2025-11-06 19:00:03FORECAST20264512535.31231.56833.442.59720483843290.114173290.444173293.093.53417329TF3.312152.31248316.368936409710.821674932373160.400819919993521624124228DRYL
2025-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20264512534.731.74833.2243.00634694534040.1484252770.5684252773.273.838425277TF2.7154.748316.661357418170.951993904581460.377293064474891624134242DRYM
2025-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20264512540.13636.53638.3363.457085861032400.363.193.55FF8.136157.13648316.983156782751.09583798949910.591937600155341634124232DRYL
2025-11-06 07:00:05FORECAST20264512540.13636.53638.3362.862105525204700.363.283.64TF8.136162.13648316.558300237170.906023260158210.591937600155341634124232DRYL
2025-11-06 03:00:04FORECAST20264512539.23637.0438.1382.1374335017570.0311023790.5011023792.693.191102379FF7.236160.23648316.03996697860.675514413314220.556570077060981634134248DRYM
2025-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20264512533.0831.132.0914.9735376767760.6263782911.8463782914.045.886378291TT1.08140.0848325.081454331574.8676194044550.317372947655181624153252.5WETH
2025-11-05 19:00:02FORECAST20264512533.0831.132.0916.0703815858580.6263782911.8463782914.266.106378291TT1.08137.0848325.840464520355.23638060095510.317372947655181624152235WETL
2025-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20264512532.28830.00231.14510.7742627110630.299212761.029212764.345.36921276TF0.288135.28848322.155954317573.47099288575060.289623300017391624143242WETL
2025-11-05 11:00:04FORECAST20264512535.83429.15632.4959.88290809222100.534.475TF3.834138.83448321.530951317433.17766084067450.421178923539161624133231.5WETM
2025-11-05 10:04:52FORECAST20264512535.83429.15632.4959.88290809222100.534.475TF3.834138.83448321.530951317433.17766084067450.421178923539161624133231.5WETM
2025-11-05 07:00:07FORECAST20264512535.88827.91431.901000.534.65.13TF3.888142.88848314.5055645733600.423298102040521624135252.5WETL
2025-11-05 03:00:04FORECAST20264512539.93829.42634.68200.0220472560.6120472564.55.112047256TF7.938146.93848314.5055645733600.584210271814091634135260WETM
2025-11-04 23:00:04FORECAST20264512535.61831.29833.458000.235.435.66TF3.618136.61848314.5055645733600.412725610841491624125235WETM
2025-11-04 19:00:03FORECAST20264512535.61831.29833.458000.235.275.5TF3.618138.61848314.5055645733600.412725610841491624125235WETM
2025-11-04 15:00:02FORECAST20264512541.91832.9937.45400.3232285210.4232285215.756.173228521TF9.918145.91848314.5055645733600.659550051222381634125240WETM
2025-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20264512539.75836.6838.219000.7355.73TF7.758134.75848314.5055645733600.577156980559791634135260WETM
2025-11-04 07:00:05FORECAST20264512539.75836.6838.219000.734.885.61TF7.758130.75848314.5055645733600.577156980559791634135260WETM
2025-11-04 03:00:04FORECAST20264512537.8537.16637.508000.84.445.24TF5.85128.8548314.5055645733600.501312037533341634135260WETM