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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 13, 2025

[ Wednesday, November 12, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, November 14, 2025 ]

DAY 44 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/14/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.90°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.12°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.51°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.793
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 182

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.19 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.20 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.00 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.04 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 3 in
SWE DAY: 49
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 317.44 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.83 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 124

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-14 07:00:03OBSERVATION20264412444.9000636.1200240.510042.60170083333330000FF12.90006181.9000649317.43992719314 0.825883723111670.7930412606664416 45114220DRYL
2025-11-14 03:00:03OBSERVATION20264412444.9000636.1200240.510042.60170083333330000FF12.90006181.9000649317.43992719314 0.825883723111670.7930412606664416 45114220DRYL
2025-11-13 11:00:02FORECAST20264412440.17233.31436.7434.25826081.5791347111.57913471101.579134711FF8.172177.17249318.617529259131.3567565350370.607157569225131635154290DRYVH
2025-11-13 07:00:03FORECAST20264412440.8233.63837.2294.347424951.8791348731.87913487301.879134873FF8.82177.8249318.680773136871.38544074422050.635561112290391635154290DRYVH
2025-11-13 03:00:03FORECAST20264412441.14434.48437.8144.301275352.1712610152.17126101502.171261015FF9.144178.14449318.648041145181.37059296470360.649499379389971635154290DRYVH
2025-11-12 23:00:01FORECAST20264412441.3633.4437.44.25924482.0070876982.04708769802.047087698FF9.36171.3649318.61822728571.35707302775180.65868237497191635154290DRYVH
2025-11-12 19:00:01FORECAST20264412440.85634.17837.5174.2265761.6271662331.66716623301.667166233FF8.856170.85649318.595051871221.34656619995770.637119086773661635154290DRYVH
2025-11-12 15:00:01FORECAST20264412440.69434.737.6974.2123081.271654231.3116542301.31165423FF8.694170.69449318.584929475381.34197784710860.630090703422181635144272DRYH
2025-11-12 11:00:02FORECAST20264412441.23434.4337.8323.34481361.0326777231.07267772301.072677723FF9.234171.23449317.968798102541.0635463602690.65333662087431635144272DRYH
2025-11-12 07:00:04FORECAST20264412440.94633.9837.4633.35262571666671.0248037031.15480370301.154803703FF8.946170.94649317.974352659661.06604899196720.641004061192361635144272DRYH
2025-11-12 03:00:03FORECAST20264412440.83833.5337.1843.32310571666671.0476383611.07763836101.077638361FF8.838170.83849317.953362823771.05659263763310.636340381222711635144272DRYH
2025-11-11 23:00:02FORECAST20264412441.37832.937.1393.32188640.9444886991.04448869901.044488699FF9.378163.37849317.952495809681.05620207167620.659443493511171635144272DRYH
2025-11-11 19:00:02FORECAST20264412441.88233.74637.8143.21167840.9716540681.07165406801.071654068FF9.882163.88249317.87411960581.0209094438570.680481855963871635144272DRYH
2025-11-11 15:00:01FORECAST20264412442.27832.8137.5443.25408880.8157484720.99574847200.995748472FF10.278163.27849317.904283045511.03448876693040.696618301849941635144272DRYH
2025-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20264412441.50430.88436.1942.79539334838150.9259847521.01598475201.015984752FF9.504163.50449317.577873719820.887755075789510.664753017914621635144272DRYH
2025-11-11 07:00:05FORECAST20264412441.95427.06834.5113.08899339960460.8913390640.98133906400.981339064FF9.954165.95449317.786844371030.981641464743270.683442480157231635134254DRYMH
2025-11-11 03:00:03FORECAST20264412441.6328.05834.8443.03516705318111.0212603941.09126039401.091260394FF9.63166.6349317.748544984870.964419914934310.670029851860921635144272DRYH
2025-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20264412439.34428.97634.167.12639092064840.7771657740.8371657740.080.917165774FF7.344157.34449320.644723093722.28503964340890.570036969180781635134254DRYMH
2025-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20264412439.84827.28433.5667.5573050608590.9307091641.1007091640.081.180709164FF7.848157.84849320.948019058342.42550208870230.592728064017671635144272DRYH
2025-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20264412439.52426.5133.0178.31158777059841.0059060551.3559060550.081.435906055FF7.524155.52449321.478117324622.67199358847040.578171626348921635143254DRYMH
2025-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20264412437.0426.7831.917.96769960660080.6397641251.0897641250.081.169764125FF5.04153.0449321.236563981612.55951644446210.464488895837451625143248DRYM
2025-11-10 07:00:03FORECAST20264412437.97627.55432.7658.04777607916910.7023625841.1423625840.151.292362584FF5.976153.97649321.292830008722.58569275175270.507487184552711635143254DRYMH
2025-11-10 03:00:03FORECAST20264412437.79625.84431.828.74332171731490.8059059471.4659059470.081.545905947FF5.796151.79649321.781076585392.813435475130.499209595269871635143254DRYMH
2025-11-09 23:00:01FORECAST20264412437.86825.23231.559.79975652818861.1303155711.7703155710.121.890315571FF5.868145.86849322.521005571553.16062732982780.502520789730311635153267.5DRYH
2025-11-09 19:00:01FORECAST20264412437.02225.41231.21710.3471444049671.0858273581.7658273580.151.915827358FF5.022144.02249322.903616897773.34113035292730.463664451330991625153260DRYH
2025-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20264412436.8625.3431.111.0246817719341.1169297371.8269297370.161.986929737FF4.86142.8649323.376463535913.56512260301690.45625189290451625153260DRYH
2025-11-09 11:00:03FORECAST20264412438.85826.09632.4776.74234258809310.9562997291.5262997290.131.656299729FF6.858143.85849320.374133393342.16007216370140.547934048650021635154290DRYVH
2025-11-09 07:00:04FORECAST20264412439.25427.96833.6116.31963069792750.9562997291.5762997290.131.706299729FF7.254150.25449320.075997120832.02276209707450.565958239129621635154290DRYVH
2025-11-09 03:00:04FORECAST20264412438.82227.30233.0626.11029912492810.9484257091.6284257090.181.808425709FF6.822150.82249319.928238210171.95485723397540.546290001510661635154290DRYVH
2025-11-08 23:00:02FORECAST20264412439.9227.91433.9174.97551839838520.5677168421.0677168420.171.237716842FF7.92153.9249319.125872444561.58781664974860.595946261440491635144272DRYH
2025-11-08 19:00:02FORECAST20264412439.48828.3133.8995.29233602112660.5677168421.0677168420.161.227716842FF7.488151.48849319.350116419211.69010812447630.576547244602311635144272DRYH
2025-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20264412439.54227.60833.5754.83902264570650.5696853470.9296853470.191.119685347FF7.542152.54249319.029204917961.54378954723970.578983320623031635134254DRYMH
2025-11-08 11:00:03FORECAST20264412439.228.79633.9983.82461255340790.4811026220.8711026220.080.951102622FF7.2153.249318.309739481681.21741142549360.563507597524631635134254DRYMH
2025-11-08 07:00:04FORECAST20264412437.74227.48232.6124.66626503593350.5027561770.9327561770.11.032756177FF5.742151.74249318.906808353781.48810368954240.496726222682861625134248DRYM
2025-11-08 03:00:04FORECAST20264412437.25627.35632.3064.25657732744680.437008110.867008110.191.05700811FF5.256147.25649318.616335039071.35621506788150.474393115168461625134248DRYM
2025-11-07 23:00:03FORECAST20264412438.58831.35234.970.98805520.8433075420.8433075420.541.383307542FF6.588151.58849316.288057788790.312510060196120.535585602415061635134254DRYMH
2025-11-07 19:00:02FORECAST20264412442.4431.9137.1751.02603760.8433075420.8433075420.561.403307542FF10.44152.4449316.315225073770.324551314378150.703113053811731645134260DRYH
2025-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20264412442.87231.76637.3191.0187560.6598428760.6598428760.541.199842876FF10.872152.87249316.310017040860.322242727720480.720113725120931645134260DRYH
2025-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20264412444.29438.94841.6211.5520307618850.4744097050.4744097050.320.794409705FF12.294151.29449316.691177509270.491514449511950.772508170105971645124240DRYM
2025-11-07 07:00:04FORECAST20264412442.02637.36439.6952.59385407842480.4744097050.4744097050.440.914409705FF10.026150.02649317.434337355750.823378350582280.686391406605771635124236DRYL
2025-11-07 03:00:05FORECAST20264412441.39637.4939.4433.37707243860470.4968506620.4968506620.691.186850662FF9.396149.39649317.991734011741.07388112063520.660203963695061635134254DRYMH
2025-11-06 23:00:02FORECAST20264412444.34834.59239.472.57421965448550.3275592320.3275592323.223.547559232FF12.348149.34849317.420349781390.81710970314090.774382896843371645124240DRYM
2025-11-06 19:00:03FORECAST20264412443.91634.68239.2992.17897825746850.3275592320.3275592323.093.417559232FF11.916148.91649317.138631185830.691038181957230.759142619661461645124240DRYM
2025-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20264412443.55634.84439.22.73803436351090.4240159770.4240159773.273.694015977TF11.556151.55649317.53703010340.869427300110280.746027084321381645124240DRYM
2025-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20264412445.1438.64241.8914.29200986103240.3555120030.3555120033.193.545512003FF13.14149.1449318.641469056751.36761232732540.800857901798911645124240DRYM
2025-11-06 07:00:05FORECAST20264412443.6138.64241.1263.69702952520470.3555120030.3555120033.283.635512003TF11.61153.6149318.219120530331.17646548408530.748017983619671645124240DRYM
2025-11-06 03:00:04FORECAST20264412442.65638.8440.7482.9847559017570.47244120.47244122.693.1624412FF10.656152.65649317.712670884330.948294769484990.711672409171961645124240DRYM
2025-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20264412436.91432.93634.92510.835116991070.8641736951.2241736954.045.264173695TF4.914138.91449323.244250123613.50238926677990.458721183533081625143248WETM
2025-11-05 19:00:02FORECAST20264412435.54632.93634.24111.9319609001510.8641736951.2241736954.265.484173695TF3.546135.54649324.008371609753.86605522136910.39690908282081625143248WETM
2025-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20264412435.74432.32434.0348.647720363860.3724411460.7324411464.345.072441146TF3.744134.74449321.714019193342.78209287511750.405734736539781625133236WETM
2025-11-05 11:00:04FORECAST20264412438.80430.68634.74510.0143704922210.4185041630.5285041634.474.998504163TF6.804134.80449322.671079114953.23134773338180.545467678597281635133240.5WETM
2025-11-05 10:04:52FORECAST20264412438.80430.68634.74510.0143704922210.4185041630.5285041634.474.998504163TF6.804134.80449322.671079114953.23134773338180.545467678597281635133240.5WETM
2025-11-05 07:00:07FORECAST20264412438.4830.5634.5200.4185041630.5285041634.65.128504163TF6.48139.4849315.5804199094300.530635933515911635135267.5WETM
2025-11-05 03:00:04FORECAST20264412439.0233.0836.0500.4854333330.5854333334.55.085433333TF7.02139.0249315.5804199094300.555321692654541635135267.5WETM
2025-11-04 23:00:03FORECAST20264412439.93831.89235.91500.2295276830.2295276835.435.659527683TF7.938132.93849315.5804199094300.596749806545531635125245WETM
2025-11-04 19:00:02FORECAST20264412439.93831.89235.91500.2295276830.2295276835.275.499527683TF7.938134.93849315.5804199094300.596749806545531635125245WETM
2025-11-04 15:00:02FORECAST20264412439.99233.42236.70700.1015748580.1015748585.755.851574858TF7.992135.99249315.5804199094300.599157979610251635125245WETM
2025-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20264412441.48627.9534.71800.2275591780.72755917855.727559178TF9.486127.48649315.5804199094300.663996494575761635135267.5WETM
2025-11-04 07:00:05FORECAST20264412441.48627.9534.71800.2275591780.7275591784.885.607559178TF9.486123.48649315.5804199094300.663996494575761635135267.5WETM
2025-11-04 03:00:04FORECAST20264412438.87627.9533.41300.3019686670.8019686674.445.241968667TF6.876122.87649315.5804199094300.54875576589771635135267.5WETM
2025-11-03 23:00:04FORECAST20264412440.47831.49635.98700.0515748310.7615748316.37.061574831TT8.478116.47849315.5804199094300.620651919349721635135267.5WETH
2025-11-03 19:00:04FORECAST20264412440.47831.49635.98700.0515748310.7615748316.317.071574831TT8.478118.47849315.5804199094300.620651919349721635135267.5WETH
2025-11-03 15:00:03FORECAST20264412439.59630.50635.05100.0464567180.8664567186.297.156456718TT7.596117.59649315.5804199094300.581416376789931635135267.5WETH
2025-11-03 11:00:03FORECAST20264412436.35634.23235.29400.1314961340.8014961346.617.411496134TT4.356112.35649315.5804199094300.433299184906371625135260WETH
2025-11-03 07:00:04FORECAST20264412436.35634.23235.29400.1314961340.8014961346.567.361496134TT4.356108.35649315.5804199094300.433299184906371625135260WETH
2025-11-03 03:00:06FORECAST20264412429.22827.96828.598000.696.196.88TT-2.77294.22849315.5804199094300.161127954048291615135252.5WETL