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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 12, 2025

[ Tuesday, November 11, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, November 13, 2025 ]

DAY 43 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/13/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.30°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.866
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 168

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.15 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.13 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 50
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 320.27 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.63 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 123

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-13 07:00:02OBSERVATION20264312348.3000843.0100645.655075.093493750000FF16.30008168.3000850320.26641135078 1.63127496455010.8658357478061216 55114222DRYL
2025-11-13 03:00:02OBSERVATION20264312348.3000843.0100645.655075.093493750000FF16.30008168.3000850320.26641135078 1.63127496455010.8658357478061216 55114222DRYL
2025-11-12 11:00:02FORECAST20264312340.92836.91438.9214.12945520.0377952960.03779529600.037795296FF8.928160.92850319.585748650961.31971503161260.598336170307461635114218DRYL
2025-11-12 07:00:04FORECAST20264312341.2736.4138.844.10469691666670.1287402270.12874022700.128740227FF9.27161.2750319.568246019581.31173079410110.613643899927151635124236DRYL
2025-11-12 03:00:03FORECAST20264312341.23436.39238.8134.07793211666670.0318897810.03188978100.031889781FF9.234161.23450319.549323662321.30310044982170.612040409487431635114218DRYL
2025-11-11 23:00:02FORECAST20264312342.63836.30239.474.06352720.0779527980.09795279800.097952798FF10.638152.63850319.539139045521.29845598297610.672914796502961635124236DRYL
2025-11-11 19:00:01FORECAST20264312342.67437.440.0374.0420760.0767716950.09677169500.096771695FF10.674152.67450319.52397184911.29154017803590.674424692850651635124236DRYL
2025-11-11 15:00:01FORECAST20264312342.31437.1339.7224.03489280.1551181940.17511819400.175118194FF10.314152.31450319.518892740821.28922447978390.659200797830071635124236DRYL
2025-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20264312342.67437.97640.3253.45876080.0681102730.08811027300.088110273FF10.674152.67450319.111218492581.10372937336240.674424692850651635114218DRYL
2025-11-11 07:00:05FORECAST20264312343.44838.552413.65920808333330.0755905920.08559059200.085590592FF11.448155.44850319.253123797811.16821361123040.706163576624031645114220DRYL
2025-11-11 03:00:03FORECAST20264312343.80839.07441.4413.55116488333330.0527559340.07275593400.072755934FF11.808155.80850319.176644317721.13344889088130.720421885266571645114220DRYL
2025-11-10 23:00:01FORECAST20264312343.98839.18241.5857.17399120.0614173560.14141735600.141417356FF11.988148.98850321.729686206232.30808593762230.727422987127861645124240DRYM
2025-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20264312343.77239.1141.4417.1151480.1673229250.24732292500.247322925FF11.772148.77250321.68840622912.28886062020410.719011272434641645124240DRYM
2025-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20264312342.02637.7639.8937.29689280.3488190860.42881908600.428819086FF10.026147.02650321.815884855742.34825601312950.646830766081271635124236DRYL
2025-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20264312341.6337.07639.3536.57178320.448819140.5288191400.52881914FF9.63146.6350321.306930553662.11155948825610.629568018161961635134254DRYMH
2025-11-10 07:00:03FORECAST20264312342.09837.43639.7676.37793108333330.4429136250.59291362500.592913625FF10.098147.09850321.170706913222.0484046346780.649938463877371635134254DRYMH
2025-11-10 03:00:03FORECAST20264312341.57636.35638.9666.54796628333330.6566932680.73669326800.736693268FF9.576144.57650321.290197558562.10379738077890.627192752062831635134254DRYMH
2025-11-09 23:00:01FORECAST20264312342.76435.85239.3085.56184480.6444885370.76448853700.764488537FF10.764138.76450320.596491134681.78310792711570.678186899294471635134254DRYMH
2025-11-09 19:00:01FORECAST20264312341.84635.20438.5256.02768138329680.6783468230.82834682300.828346823FF9.846137.84650320.924409518351.93443008869930.63901897945491635134254DRYMH
2025-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20264312340.74834.68237.7156.36821414616710.7090555010.86905550100.869055501FF8.748136.74850321.16387686762.04524034390610.590216814316271635134254DRYMH
2025-11-09 11:00:03FORECAST20264312340.22636.37438.34.08653360.5744097590.70440975900.704409759FF8.226136.22650319.555404936791.30587389933580.566463131021561635134254DRYMH
2025-11-09 07:00:03FORECAST20264312342.1736.53639.3533.97007136666670.6165357660.74653576600.746535766FF10.17142.1750319.473054508911.26833082612740.653036157490231635134254DRYMH
2025-11-09 03:00:04FORECAST20264312343.0736.80639.9383.83063856666670.6822838330.86228383300.862283833FF11.07143.0750319.374429550011.22340800704140.69084061676551635134254DRYMH
2025-11-08 23:00:01FORECAST20264312343.71836.53640.1274.40442480.4980317650.66803176500.668031765FF11.718144.71850319.780061800951.40844723474160.716888933715261645134260DRYH
2025-11-08 19:00:01FORECAST20264312342.99835.94239.474.36349040.4980317650.65803176500.658031765FF10.998142.99850319.751143228681.39523104386740.68788282262641635134254DRYMH
2025-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20264312343.8837.00440.4424.37588880.362204920.5522049200.55220492FF11.88143.8850319.759902536761.39923377619970.723232766449841645134260DRYH
2025-11-08 11:00:03FORECAST20264312343.57436.80640.193.76748160.3905513920.47055139200.470551392FF11.574144.57450319.329745257381.20306893958990.711192099351011645124240DRYM
2025-11-08 07:00:04FORECAST20264312343.03436.4139.7223.63126063333330.4263781830.52637818300.526378183FF11.034145.03450319.233342922841.15921947100310.689363248429141635134254DRYMH
2025-11-08 03:00:04FORECAST20264312341.32435.56438.4443.92813343333330.4263781830.61637818300.616378183FF9.324141.32450319.443394236481.25481627695780.616045494100881635134254DRYMH
2025-11-07 23:00:02FORECAST20264312344.94236.91440.9281.531715200.320.220.54FF12.942143.94250317.743287135090.486692222602780.763016113106521645124240DRYM
2025-11-07 19:00:02FORECAST20264312346.4935.40240.9461.776731200.340.220.56FF14.49141.4950317.917585800870.564854093721090.814923266066251645124240DRYM
2025-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20264312346.29236.24841.271.768957600.320.220.54FF14.292141.29250317.912057509210.562372950262550.808706806708411645124240DRYM
2025-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20264312345.39237.4941.4412.72741876188500.10.220.32FF13.392138.39250318.592856697530.868936134759360.778875690124771645124240DRYM
2025-11-07 07:00:03FORECAST20264312344.45638.35441.4053.570375678424800.080.360.44FF12.456139.45650319.190244408981.13962908542830.745209177015911645114220DRYL
2025-11-07 03:00:05FORECAST20264312344.79838.6641.7294.304886038604700.080.610.69FF12.798138.79850319.709736277191.37631398010570.757812276416371645114220DRYL
2025-11-06 23:00:02FORECAST20264312344.74438.26441.5043.571306854485500.033.193.22FF12.744135.74450319.190903608951.1399286619480.755845010725341645114220DRYL
2025-11-06 19:00:02FORECAST20264312344.34838.10241.2253.140936657468500.033.063.09FF12.348136.34850318.886068880381.00160094330240.741159193181461645114220DRYL
2025-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20264312344.638.04841.3243.674605563510900.033.243.27FF12.6138.650319.264021352481.17316934909070.750557175392031645114220DRYL
2025-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20264312342.85437.47240.1635.593448261032400.123.073.19FF10.854134.85450320.618750167891.7933643905810.681930939702681635124236DRYL
2025-11-06 07:00:05FORECAST20264312344.79839.14641.9724.952023125204700.123.163.28FF12.798140.79850320.166629851331.58547255494260.757812276416371645124240DRYM
2025-11-06 03:00:04FORECAST20264312345.37439.5642.4674.22666230175700.082.612.69FF13.374141.37450319.654457637521.35107144568510.778253176060581645114220DRYL
2025-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20264312342.83636.8639.8486.70942802889570.3570868070.4170868073.984.397086807TF10.836132.83650321.40361552982.15643442662410.681183600340091635124236WETM
2025-11-05 19:00:02FORECAST20264312341.32436.08638.7057.3376080835480.3570868070.4170868074.24.617086807TF9.324131.32450321.844435120732.36156832878680.616045494100881635124236WETM
2025-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20264312341.6336.19438.9127.66240624759340.3578742090.4178742094.284.697874209TF9.63129.6350322.072083549532.46784714516530.629568018161961635124236WETM
2025-11-05 11:00:04FORECAST20264312343.46638.31840.8929.99926207201080.114173290.114173294.474.58417329TF11.466127.46650323.704442217343.23680555160520.706884409060191645123230WETMH
2025-11-05 10:04:51FORECAST20264312343.46638.31840.8929.99926207201080.114173290.114173294.474.58417329TF11.466127.46650323.704442217343.23680555160520.706884409060191645123230WETMH
2025-11-05 07:00:07FORECAST20264312343.53837.23840.38800.114173290.114173294.64.71417329TF11.538131.53850316.6511985458600.709759513285031645125250WETMH
2025-11-05 03:00:03FORECAST20264312343.80837.34640.57700.1043307650.1043307654.54.604330765TF11.808130.80850316.6511985458600.720421885266571645125250WETMH
2025-11-04 23:00:03FORECAST20264312341.55836.9539.254000.275.165.43TF9.558123.55850316.6511985458600.62639991610881635125245WETM
2025-11-04 19:00:02FORECAST20264312341.55838.51640.037000.2755.27TF9.558125.55850316.6511985458600.62639991610881635125245WETMH
2025-11-04 15:00:02FORECAST20264312341.50437.90439.704000.275.485.75TF9.504126.50450316.6511985458600.624018210015851635125245WETM
2025-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20264312337.77831.35234.56500.4968506620.7868506624.715.496850662TF5.778116.77850316.6511985458600.453268508106361625135260WETM
2025-11-04 07:00:04FORECAST20264312337.77831.35234.56500.4968506620.7868506624.595.376850662TF5.778112.77850316.6511985458600.453268508106361625135260WETM
2025-11-04 03:00:04FORECAST20264312338.62431.92835.27600.4976380640.7376380644.24.937638064TF6.624114.62450316.6511985458600.4924247108011625135260WETM
2025-11-03 23:00:04FORECAST20264312338.0332.19835.11400.3988191131.2288191135.787.008819113TT6.03107.0350316.6511985458600.464901923988051625145280WETH
2025-11-03 19:00:03FORECAST20264312338.0332.19835.11400.3988191131.2288191135.797.018819113TT6.03109.0350316.6511985458600.464901923988051625145280WETH
2025-11-03 15:00:02FORECAST20264312337.45432.48634.9700.5070868881.4270868885.687.107086888TT5.454109.45450316.6511985458600.438371359223321625145280WETH
2025-11-03 11:00:03FORECAST20264312337.52633.02635.27600.5622050281.6122050285.677.282205028TT5.526106.52650316.6511985458600.4416750597221416251552100WETH
2025-11-03 07:00:04FORECAST20264312337.52633.02635.27600.5622050281.6122050285.627.232205028TT5.526102.52650316.6511985458600.4416750597221416251552100WETH
2025-11-03 03:00:05FORECAST20264312335.36630.4732.91800.6311027031.5811027035.36.881102703TT3.36696.36650316.6511985458600.3453129741904216251552100WETH
2025-11-02 23:00:03FORECAST20264312333.38631.44232.41400.0807087051.0407087054.835.870708705TF1.38699.38650316.6511985458600.26488351553051625145280WETM
2025-11-02 19:00:03FORECAST20264312333.38631.44232.41400.0807087051.0407087054.855.890708705TF1.386101.38650316.6511985458600.26488351553051625145280WETM
2025-11-02 15:00:04FORECAST20264312333.4430.72232.08100.0692913761.0292913765.026.049291376TF1.4486.4450316.6511985458600.266945014299351625145280WETM
2025-11-02 11:00:02FORECAST20264312336.21232.5434.37600.8618114892.6118114895.98.511811489TT4.21284.21250316.6511985458600.3822463847048816251552100WETH
2025-11-02 07:00:05FORECAST20264312336.21232.5434.37600.8618114892.6218114895.748.361811489TT4.21282.21250316.6511985458600.3822463847048816251552100WETH
2025-11-02 03:00:05FORECAST20264312335.67235.04235.35700.027559071.667559075.757.41755907TT3.67286.67250316.6511985458600.3585239452299416251552100WETH