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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 11, 2025

[ Monday, November 10, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, November 12, 2025 ]

DAY 42 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/12/2025 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.69°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.922
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 153

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.14 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.66 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.06 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 51
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 321.21 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.58 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 122

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-12 07:00:04OBSERVATION20264212251.4599828.6899840.074984.93273291666670000FF19.45998153.4599851321.20645710323 1.5844256639990.9224179797096216 55114222DRYL
2025-11-12 03:00:03OBSERVATION20264212251.4599828.6899840.074984.93273291666670000FF19.45998153.4599851321.20645710323 1.5844256639990.9224179797096216 55114222DRYL
2025-11-11 11:00:02FORECAST20264212241.07229.42635.2494.50563840.0161417410.01614174100.016141741FF9.072143.07251320.906131523861.44588698898940.610479104623981635114218DRYL
2025-11-11 07:00:05FORECAST20264212242.85430.39836.6264.76404328333330.0102362260.01023622600.010236226FF10.854144.85451321.087876356771.52967654071720.683020896837571635114218DRYL
2025-11-11 03:00:03FORECAST20264212242.94430.14636.5454.69831208333330.0204724520.02047245200.020472452FF10.944144.94451321.041656708151.50835389496520.686531264075091635114218DRYL
2025-11-10 23:00:01FORECAST20264212243.95230.30837.138.329108800.0800.08FF11.952137.95251323.583169061722.69515942096380.72464209504531645113215DRYL
2025-11-10 19:00:01FORECAST20264212243.55631.58637.5718.270167200.0800.08FF11.556137.55651323.542097558132.67574724304440.709943259541051645113215DRYL
2025-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20264212243.50231.26237.3828.28610800.0800.08FF11.502137.50251323.553205983742.68099680852760.707910753015941645113215DRYL
2025-11-10 11:00:02FORECAST20264212243.89830.86637.3827.474996800.0800.08FF11.898137.89851322.987407925372.41432984068250.72265944580861645114220DRYL
2025-11-10 07:00:03FORECAST20264212243.71831.08237.47.350910283333300.1500.15FF11.718137.71851322.900747386582.37361442446010.71600070126671645124240DRYM
2025-11-10 03:00:03FORECAST20264212243.12431.24437.1847.430023883333300.0800.08FF11.124136.12451322.956002534092.39957081209420.693501338678451635114218DRYL
2025-11-09 23:00:01FORECAST20264212243.05231.1937.1216.462401600.1200.12FF11.052129.05251322.279424917682.08269907123510.690721505201671635124236DRYL
2025-11-09 19:00:01FORECAST20264212242.96231.20837.0856.50727200.1500.15FF10.962128.96251322.310835829532.09736427729010.687231329779611635124236DRYL
2025-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20264212242.1730.6536.416.598685600.1600.16FF10.17129.1751322.374817599212.12725006669450.65582129602511635124236DRYL
2025-11-09 11:00:03FORECAST20264212242.04430.39836.2214.893413600.1300.13FF10.044129.04451321.178822044661.57166081582530.650716361530131635124236DRYL
2025-11-09 07:00:03FORECAST20264212243.21430.97437.0944.955252166666700.1300.13FF11.214133.21451321.222283215521.59173741488530.696960534356031635124236DRYL
2025-11-09 03:00:03FORECAST20264212243.26830.84837.0584.859016966666700.1800.18FF11.268133.26851321.154644565211.56049586686610.6990276381371645124240DRYM
2025-11-08 23:00:01FORECAST20264212242.831.6437.225.469309600.1700.17FF10.8133.851321.583307190521.75883866921690.680906721306561635124236DRYL
2025-11-08 19:00:01FORECAST20264212243.17832.73837.9585.3518200.1600.16FF11.178133.17851321.500835467591.72061460127220.695578949591211635124236DRYL
2025-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20264212243.12431.38837.2565.435558400.1900.19FF11.124133.12451321.559618084421.74785608317960.693501338678451635124236DRYL
2025-11-08 11:00:03FORECAST20264212243.08830.32636.7074.804814400.0800.08FF11.088134.08851321.116541158541.54290538103680.692112798878021635114218DRYL
2025-11-08 07:00:04FORECAST20264212243.10630.34436.7254.582591833333300.100.1FF11.106135.10651320.960267931041.47082990264520.692807414024161635124236DRYL
2025-11-08 03:00:03FORECAST20264212242.49429.89436.1944.737768633333300.1900.19FF10.494133.49451321.069401960481.52115254173150.668816742707671635124236DRYL
2025-11-07 23:00:02FORECAST20264212242.76432.61237.6882.596600.320.220.54FF10.764131.76451319.559738354310.82976881661080.679493991705091635124236DRYL
2025-11-07 19:00:02FORECAST20264212241.50432.01836.7612.831972800.340.220.56FF9.504127.50451319.726093487810.905455600207740.628538243624661635124236DRYL
2025-11-07 15:00:03FORECAST20264212241.84631.2836.5632.925354400.320.220.54FF9.846127.84651319.792065527720.935505125976610.642639287553391635124236DRYL
2025-11-07 11:00:03FORECAST20264212240.47828.70634.5923.90152756188500.10.220.32FF8.478126.47851320.480774369461.25036457425670.585260865174341635124236DRYL
2025-11-07 07:00:03FORECAST20264212240.58629.10234.8444.758457278424800.080.360.44FF8.586127.58651321.083948793251.52786425312060.589875518273441635114218DRYL
2025-11-07 03:00:05FORECAST20264212240.69430.84835.7715.521110038604700.080.610.69FF8.694126.69451321.619660646641.77569753700880.594477760969971635114218DRYL
2025-11-06 23:00:02FORECAST20264212239.84831.80235.8254.713238854485500.033.193.22FF7.848123.84851321.052153316041.51319548332540.558127080600821635114218DRYL
2025-11-06 19:00:02FORECAST20264212239.54231.9135.7264.242819857468500.033.063.09FF7.542124.54251320.721160014021.36076210641780.54484045006841635114218DRYL
2025-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20264212239.57832.21635.8974.781900763510900.033.243.27FF7.578126.57851321.100431716231.53547039958750.546406483021061635114218DRYL
2025-11-06 11:00:03FORECAST20264212239.68631.06435.3756.706155461032400.123.073.19FF7.686124.68651322.450018393612.16239995176030.551100158177651635124236DRYL
2025-11-06 07:00:05FORECAST20264212241.30632.39636.8516.276093525204700.123.163.28FF9.306129.30651322.148964191292.02183702831240.620293531562561635124236DRYL
2025-11-06 03:00:04FORECAST20264212241.093236.5455.55880150175700.082.612.69FF9.09129.0951321.646109442551.78796687620350.611236655800681635114218DRYL
2025-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20264212241.0933.76437.4277.717929628895700.063.984.04TF9.09123.0951323.156990245642.49410290980160.611236655800681635114218WETM
2025-11-05 19:00:02FORECAST20264212240.94634.17837.5628.23826328354800.064.24.26TF8.946122.94651323.519863804622.665241815480.605164641786851635113213.5WETM
2025-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20264212240.83834.03437.4368.587563047593400.064.284.34TF8.838120.83851323.763191774522.78033682185370.600593723970991635113213.5WETM
2025-11-05 11:00:04FORECAST20264212241.37834.41237.89511.154182872011004.474.47TF9.378117.37851325.54453559963.63118328306180.62329816203121635113213.5WETM
2025-11-05 10:04:51FORECAST20264212241.37834.41237.89511.154182872011004.474.47TF9.378117.37851325.54453559963.63118328306180.62329816203121635113213.5WETM
2025-11-05 07:00:07FORECAST20264212240.65833.81837.2380004.64.6TF8.658120.65851317.7179159447100.592945096838881635115222.5WETM
2025-11-05 03:00:03FORECAST20264212240.49635.13237.8140004.54.5TF8.496120.49651317.7179159447100.586030809764521635115222.5WETM
2025-11-04 23:00:03FORECAST20264212240.11831.3735.744000.275.165.43TF8.118115.11851317.7179159447100.56979700711611635125245WETM
2025-11-04 19:00:02FORECAST20264212242.31431.38836.851000.2755.27TF10.314117.31451317.7179159447100.661620902283141635125245WETM
2025-11-04 15:00:02FORECAST20264212242.45831.40636.932000.275.485.75TF10.458118.45851317.7179159447100.667382443601561635125245WETM
2025-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20264212240.15430.14635.15000.34.75TF8.154112.15451317.7179159447100.571348631030041635125245WETM
2025-11-04 07:00:04FORECAST20264212239.43429.01234.223000.34.584.88TF7.434108.43451317.7179159447100.540138265259161635125245WETM
2025-11-04 03:00:04FORECAST20264212240.40629.01234.709000.254.194.44TF8.406109.40651317.7179159447100.582177839256281635125245WETM
2025-11-03 23:00:03FORECAST20264212238.22831.85635.04200.3114174910.8314174915.786.611417491TT6.228102.22851317.7179159447100.487400488601971625135260WETH
2025-11-03 19:00:03FORECAST20264212238.22833.00835.61800.3114174910.8314174915.796.621417491TT6.228104.22851317.7179159447100.487400488601971625135260WETH
2025-11-03 15:00:02FORECAST20264212238.10233.15235.62700.3122048930.9222048935.686.602204893TT6.102105.10251317.7179159447100.481887384423321625135260WETH
2025-11-03 11:00:03FORECAST20264212236.62633.29634.96100.1074803731.0474803735.676.717480373TT4.626101.62651317.7179159447100.417840205190891625145280WETH
2025-11-03 07:00:03FORECAST20264212236.62633.29634.96100.1074803731.0474803735.626.667480373TT4.62697.62651317.7179159447100.417840205190891625145280WETH
2025-11-03 03:00:05FORECAST20264212236.53633.22434.8800.0649606650.9549606655.36.254960665TT4.53693.53651317.7179159447100.413987196871471625135260WETH
2025-11-02 23:00:03FORECAST20264212237.07633.94435.5100.1425197620.9625197624.835.792519762TF5.07699.07651317.7179159447100.437216514304711625135260WETM
2025-11-02 19:00:03FORECAST20264212237.07633.94435.5100.1425197620.9625197624.855.812519762TF5.076101.07651317.7179159447100.437216514304711625135260WETM
2025-11-02 15:00:04FORECAST20264212235.25831.44233.3500.0775590970.9575590975.025.977559097TF3.25886.25851317.7179159447100.360331263088681625135260WETM
2025-11-02 11:00:02FORECAST20264212238.73225.53832.13500.5263782371.9863782375.667.646378237TT6.73280.73251317.7179159447100.5094664487368616351552112.5WETH
2025-11-02 07:00:05FORECAST20264212238.73225.44832.0900.5299215461.9899215465.517.499921546TT6.73278.73251317.7179159447100.5094664487368616351552112.5WETH
2025-11-02 03:00:05FORECAST20264212239.4726.16832.81900.4629923761.9829923765.417.392992376TT7.4784.4751317.7179159447100.5417063170133116351552112.5WETH
2025-11-02 00:00:04FORECAST20264212234.75428.41831.58600.200787512.070787518.3610.43078751TT2.75469.75451317.7179159447100.339842408004916251552100WETL
2025-11-01 20:00:04FORECAST20264212234.75428.41831.58600.200787512.070787518.6610.73078751TT2.75469.75451317.7179159447100.339842408004916251552100WETL
2025-11-01 16:00:02FORECAST20264212230.4729.1229.79500.1519685862.7119685868.5711.281968586TT-1.5363.4751317.7179159447100.188566869904391615155287.5WETL
2025-11-01 12:00:04FORECAST20264212234.14232.34233.24200.3759844553.4559844559.1312.585984455TT2.14277.14251317.7179159447100.3155893877055616251552100WETH
2025-11-01 08:00:05FORECAST20264212235.16829.40832.28800.3759844553.4459844559.0812.525984455TT3.16869.16851317.7179159447100.3566409561738416251552100WETH
2025-11-01 04:00:04FORECAST20264212233.47633.15233.31400.0783464991.8183464999.1510.968346499TT1.47660.47651317.7179159447100.2900725628147316251552100WETH