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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 10, 2025

[ Sunday, November 9, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, November 11, 2025 ]

DAY 41 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/11/2025 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.70°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.88°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.903
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 147

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.14 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.14 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.98 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 5 in
SWE DAY: 52
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 322.53 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 1.72 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 121

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-11 07:00:05OBSERVATION20264112149.6999433.8799241.789935.32315208333330000FF17.69994146.6999452322.52910839941 1.7168714953120.9033515506561816 55114222DRYL
2025-11-11 03:00:02OBSERVATION20264112149.6999433.8799241.789935.32315208333330000FF17.69994146.6999452322.52910839941 1.7168714953120.9033515506561816 55114222DRYL
2025-11-10 11:00:01FORECAST20264112141.59433.78237.6888.1552360.0791339010.07913390100.079133901FF9.594138.59452324.502879356182.64639756382920.66199054041321635113213.5DRYL
2025-11-10 07:00:03FORECAST20264112141.7233.9837.858.07346148333330.1468504730.14685047300.146850473FF9.72138.7252324.446086888092.61940298590920.666990915584041635123227DRYL
2025-11-10 03:00:03FORECAST20264112141.43234.55637.9948.06834468333330.0838583130.08385831300.083858313FF9.432138.43252324.442532874182.61771418516260.655519382815291635113213.5DRYL
2025-11-09 23:00:01FORECAST20264112141.50433.7137.6077.10465840.1236221140.12362211400.123622114FF9.504130.50452323.77235387532.30029197364790.658401209503611635124236DRYL
2025-11-09 19:00:01FORECAST20264112141.75633.27837.5177.11223520.1484252770.14842527700.148425277FF9.756130.75652323.777629430822.30278265301040.668414209443121635124236DRYL
2025-11-09 15:00:02FORECAST20264112143.08833.42238.2557.134080.1559055960.15590559600.155905596FF11.088132.08852323.79283890572.30996401618040.719230221952451645124240DRYM
2025-11-09 11:00:02FORECAST20264112143.44833.49438.4715.43343280.1334646390.13346463900.133464639FF11.448132.44852322.606232569321.75285928552660.732289558854591645124240DRYM
2025-11-09 07:00:03FORECAST20264112143.80833.54838.6785.59130976666670.1275591240.12755912400.127559124FF11.808134.80852322.716605301851.80440850708980.745035915193451645124240DRYM
2025-11-09 03:00:03FORECAST20264112144.43833.51238.9755.48621856666670.1803150580.18031505800.180315058FF12.438135.43852322.643140340181.77009078694190.766554945514931645124240DRYM
2025-11-08 23:00:01FORECAST20264112144.6933.3539.026.06069360.1673229250.16732292500.167322925FF12.69135.6952323.044493060541.95787369160730.774872328158791645124240DRYM
2025-11-08 19:00:01FORECAST20264112144.29433.56638.935.99023920.1645670180.16456701800.164567018FF12.294135.29452322.995302118451.93481912016580.761726791503081645124240DRYM
2025-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20264112144.11434.46639.296.0322560.1897638820.18976388200.189763882FF12.114135.11452323.024639116861.94856731746050.75561558352261645124240DRYM
2025-11-08 11:00:03FORECAST20264112144.65433.40439.0295.39993760.0830709110.08307091100.083070911FF12.654135.65452322.582810182681.74192704581910.773694491128181645114220DRYL
2025-11-08 07:00:04FORECAST20264112144.63633.02638.8315.18607903333330.0996063530.09960635300.099606353FF12.636136.63652322.433217050241.67216414659450.7731042720161645124240DRYM
2025-11-08 03:00:03FORECAST20264112143.77232.6338.2015.29382703333330.1854331710.18543317100.185433171FF11.772135.77252322.508596461981.70730472643280.743775702458911645124240DRYM
2025-11-07 23:00:02FORECAST20264112143.7934.75439.2723.32092240.3173230060.3173230060.220.537323006FF11.79133.7952321.12509759871.06643152981770.744406213923271645124240DRYM
2025-11-07 19:00:02FORECAST20264112143.01634.57438.7953.41302480.3374017570.3374017570.220.557401757FF11.016131.01652321.189838772871.09622888523980.716581900939321645124240DRYM
2025-11-07 15:00:02FORECAST20264112143.10633.00838.0573.5112280.3216537170.3216537170.220.541653717FF11.106131.10652321.258851676551.12801307525450.719890429611171645124240DRYM
2025-11-07 11:00:02FORECAST20264112144.88833.22439.0564.3669595618850.0964567450.0964567450.220.316456745FF12.888130.88852321.859494301561.40554739622360.781288117734791645124240DRYM
2025-11-07 07:00:03FORECAST20264112145.17634.0739.6235.24386447842480.07874020.07874020.360.4387402FF13.176132.17652322.473645728691.69100809606480.790430056031171645114220DRYL
2025-11-07 03:00:04FORECAST20264112145.06834.41239.746.12479403860470.0779527980.0779527980.610.687952798FF13.068131.06852323.089240048411.97885505138580.787028412938391645114220DRYL
2025-11-06 23:00:02FORECAST20264112145.62632.8139.2185.22186845448550.0346456880.0346456883.193.224645688FF13.626128.62652322.458257255721.6838346014520.804256250797911645114220DRYL
2025-11-06 19:00:02FORECAST20264112146.65232.95439.8034.74613585746850.0346456880.0346456883.063.094645688FF14.652129.65252322.12522307991.52885007185450.83364752832461645114220DRYL
2025-11-06 15:00:02FORECAST20264112146.61633.7140.1635.31119436351090.0271653690.0271653693.243.267165369FF14.616131.61652322.520744540151.7129703605170.832667004891261645114220DRYL
2025-11-06 11:00:02FORECAST20264112145.42834.6140.0197.16430586103240.1161417950.1161417953.073.186141795FF13.428130.42852323.813882315292.31990169495510.798242092156191645124240DRYM
2025-11-06 07:00:05FORECAST20264112146.11237.5841.8466.94806712520470.1161417950.1161417953.163.276141795FF14.112133.11252323.663300155312.24883433544440.818551059821941645124240DRYM
2025-11-06 03:00:04FORECAST20264112146.23837.23841.7386.2207383017570.0775590970.0775590972.612.687559097FF14.238133.23852323.156202839032.01027016845110.822147929884231645114220DRYL
2025-11-05 23:00:03FORECAST20264112145.8638.2142.0358.47925042889570.0578740470.0578740473.984.037874047TF13.86126.8652324.727791706682.75344826710320.811222175992581645113215WETMH
2025-11-05 19:00:02FORECAST20264112145.87838.3942.1349.0120808835480.0578740470.0578740474.24.257874047TF13.878126.87852325.097249998562.9298027120060.811751626917711645113215WETMH
2025-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20264112145.84238.28242.0629.33441904759340.0578740470.0578740474.284.337874047TF13.842124.84252325.320512822563.03667799146380.810691810381661645113215WETMH
2025-11-05 11:00:04FORECAST20264112144.00637.97640.99111.924753272011004.474.47TF12.006121.00652327.108048688943.90068277390450.751908771121641645113215WETMH
2025-11-05 10:04:51FORECAST20264112144.00637.97640.99111.924753272011004.474.47TF12.006121.00652327.108048688943.90068277390450.751908771121641645113215WETMH
2025-11-05 07:00:07FORECAST20264112142.72836.82439.7760004.64.6TF10.728124.72852318.780587509400.70587069818561645115225WETM
2025-11-05 03:00:03FORECAST20264112142.83637.14839.9920004.54.5TF10.836124.83652318.780587509400.709909264066481645115225WETM
2025-11-04 23:00:03FORECAST20264112142.83633.92638.38100.2692914840.2692914845.165.429291484TF10.836119.83652318.780587509400.709909264066481645125250WETM
2025-11-04 19:00:02FORECAST20264112143.98834.23239.1100.2692914840.26929148455.269291484TF11.988119.98852318.780587509400.751288070446031645125250WETM
2025-11-04 15:00:01FORECAST20264112144.04234.23239.13700.2696851850.2696851855.485.749685185TF12.042121.04252318.780587509400.753147692994071645125250WETM
2025-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20264112141.82832.79237.3100.2948820490.3048820494.75.004882049TF9.828116.82852318.780587509400.671253502054061635125245WETM
2025-11-04 07:00:04FORECAST20264112139.88432.19836.04100.2948820490.3048820494.584.884882049TF7.884113.88452318.780587509400.591629924855531635125245WETM
2025-11-04 03:00:04FORECAST20264112140.08232.61236.34700.2413387130.2513387134.194.441338713TF8.082114.08252318.780587509400.599979936400211635125245WETM
2025-11-03 23:00:03FORECAST20264112140.33432.66636.500.5232286290.5232286295.786.303228629TF8.334109.33452318.780587509400.610541012738121635135267.5WETM
2025-11-03 19:00:03FORECAST20264112140.94633.58437.26500.5232286290.5232286295.796.313228629TF8.946110.94652318.780587509400.635837910114991635135267.5WETM
2025-11-03 15:00:02FORECAST20264112141.1834.64637.91300.6070869420.6070869425.686.287086942TF9.18112.1852318.780587509400.645362701220561635135267.5WETM
2025-11-03 11:00:03FORECAST20264112142.78236.98639.88400.9444886990.9444886995.676.614488699TT10.782109.78252318.780587509400.707893226114721645135275WETH
2025-11-03 07:00:03FORECAST20264112141.75636.98639.37100.9444886990.9444886995.626.564488699TT9.756105.75652318.780587509400.668414209443121635135267.5WETH
2025-11-03 03:00:05FORECAST20264112141.84636.06838.95700.8901579610.8901579615.36.190157961TF9.846101.84652318.780587509400.671961792578281635135267.5WETM
2025-11-02 23:00:03FORECAST20264112143.59237.47240.53200.8220476880.8220476884.835.652047688TF11.592106.59252318.780587509400.737426333560781645135275WETMH
2025-11-02 19:00:03FORECAST20264112142.87237.47240.17200.8220476880.8220476884.855.672047688TF10.872108.87252318.780587509400.711249659871041645135275WETMH
2025-11-02 15:00:03FORECAST20264112141.19833.74637.47200.8811028380.8811028385.025.901102838TF9.19896.19852318.780587509400.646091717591511635135267.5WETM
2025-11-02 11:00:02FORECAST20264112135.8727.21231.54101.216536091.456536095.667.11653609TT3.8786.8752318.780587509400.418689951295491625145280WETL
2025-11-02 07:00:04FORECAST20264112135.88827.06831.47801.2275597181.4575597185.516.967559718TT3.88884.88852318.780587509400.419455570073651625145280WETL
2025-11-02 03:00:05FORECAST20264112134.32227.48230.90201.1759848871.5159848875.416.925984887TT2.32290.32252318.780587509400.3542873732503616251552100WETL
2025-11-02 00:00:04FORECAST20264112132.91828.97630.94701.4897645841.8797645848.3510.229764584TT0.91879.91852318.780587509400.2992273676893116251552100WETL
2025-11-01 20:00:04FORECAST20264112132.91828.97630.94701.4897645841.8797645848.6510.529764584TT0.91879.91852318.780587509400.2992273676893116251552100WETL
2025-11-01 16:00:02FORECAST20264112132.48630.7431.61301.7141741542.6841741548.4511.134174154TT0.48678.48652318.780587509400.2830997326177416251552100WETL
2025-11-01 12:00:04FORECAST20264112135.04227.46431.25301.8814970793.8714970798.3412.211497079TT3.04288.04252318.780587509400.3838491616445416251552100WETL
2025-11-01 08:00:04FORECAST20264112130.88426.56428.72401.8929144083.8429144088.3112.152914408TT-1.11678.88452318.780587509400.227203040025561615155287.5WETL
2025-11-01 04:00:04FORECAST20264112133.90825.08829.49800.8755910242.5155910248.3710.885591024TT1.90871.90852318.780587509400.3376657181614416251552100WETL
2025-11-01 00:00:03FORECAST20264112128.18424.96226.573003.6910.2213.91TT-3.81670.18452318.780587509400.148663899544851615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 20:00:03FORECAST20264112128.18424.96226.573003.699.7413.43TT-3.81671.18452318.780587509400.148663899544851615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20264112126.9623.6325.295003.619.212.81TT-5.0472.9652318.780587509400.119882284812071615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 12:00:03FORECAST20264112124.96222.9123.936000.6610.2710.93TT-7.03871.96252318.780587509400.0817393246181141615135252.5WETL
2025-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20264112124.96222.9123.936000.6610.3811.04TT-7.03871.96252318.780587509400.0817393246181141615135252.5WETL
2025-10-31 04:00:04FORECAST20264112132.9932.8132.9001.119.5110.62TT0.9990.9952318.780587509400.301955288486451625145280WETH