MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 9, 2025

[ Saturday, November 8, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, November 10, 2025 ]

DAY 40 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/10/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.94°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.983
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 143

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.33 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.88 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.84 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 9 in
SWE DAY: 53
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 326.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.91 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 120

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 16.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-10 07:00:03OBSERVATION20264012057.7200250.1600253.940028.92550708333330000FF25.72002142.7200253326.07216562853 2.91035942399520.9826913857118916 55113216.5DRYL
2025-11-10 03:00:03OBSERVATION20264012057.7200250.1600253.940028.92550708333330000FF25.72002142.7200253326.07216562853 2.91035942399520.9826913857118916 55113216.5DRYL
2025-11-09 11:00:01FORECAST20264012049.6439.45244.5466.34461680000FF17.64134.6453324.284355216152.05745996808150.888452661702951655114222DRYL
2025-11-09 07:00:03FORECAST20264012052.26839.09245.686.62706816666670000FF20.268137.26853324.480583924432.1503549484270.93432680414171655114222DRYL
2025-11-09 03:00:03FORECAST20264012052.4339.95646.1936.52040256666670000FF20.43137.4353324.406496195562.11526095043690.936586277787731655114222DRYL
2025-11-08 23:00:01FORECAST20264012053.34838.51645.9327.1240040000FF21.348137.34853324.825480850922.31405802488380.948270068409851655114222DRYL
2025-11-08 19:00:01FORECAST20264012053.2441.50447.3727.04794080000FF21.24137.2453324.772717612852.28897888719050.946991102375981655114222DRYL
2025-11-08 15:00:02FORECAST20264012052.77241.68447.2287.09723920000FF20.772136.77253324.806915906252.3052323760010.941157850784191655114222DRYL
2025-11-08 11:00:02FORECAST20264012052.91641.12647.0216.39033360000FF20.916136.91653324.316125804042.07248823574740.943003848567181655114222DRYL
2025-11-08 07:00:04FORECAST20264012052.80841.4547.1296.17303103333330000FF20.808137.80853324.165079908822.00108109820010.941623676872611655114222DRYL
2025-11-08 03:00:03FORECAST20264012052.55641.30646.9316.18739743333330000FF20.556137.55653324.175068493382.00579998674660.938301582177311655114222DRYL
2025-11-07 23:00:01FORECAST20264012052.59241.73847.1654.353925600.2200.22FF20.592135.59253322.897353573561.40587105389620.938784978491381655124244DRYM
2025-11-07 19:00:01FORECAST20264012052.19641.25246.7244.469447200.2200.22FF20.196134.19653322.978034350231.44353327128820.933302842358181655124244DRYM
2025-11-07 15:00:02FORECAST20264012051.54842.13446.8414.467282400.2200.22FF19.548133.54853322.976522662361.44282733530270.92352557328661655124244DRYM
2025-11-07 11:00:02FORECAST20264012051.38641.64846.5175.37378836188500.2200.22FF19.386132.38653323.608812670211.73900527133060.920919304046461655124244DRYM
2025-11-07 07:00:03FORECAST20264012051.65641.32446.496.330003678424800.3600.36FF19.656132.65653324.274199145812.05265687341120.925226563347541655124244DRYM
2025-11-07 03:00:04FORECAST20264012051.0841.21646.1487.225988438604700.6100.61FF19.08132.0853324.896209042682.34769625028890.91581430061011655134266DRYH
2025-11-06 23:00:02FORECAST20264012050.37841.32445.8516.302005254485500.432.763.19FF18.378129.37853324.254739282292.04345507074880.903177817792631655124244DRYM
2025-11-06 19:00:02FORECAST20264012050.1841.14445.6625.859531857468500.32.763.06FF18.18129.1853323.947021295111.89817789141070.899374577889491655124244DRYM
2025-11-06 15:00:01FORECAST20264012050.50440.71245.6086.478907163510900.482.763.24FF18.504130.50453324.377668919482.10161280284540.905542644965091655124244DRYM
2025-11-06 11:00:02FORECAST20264012050.10841.3645.7348.290887461032400.312.763.07FF18.108131.10853325.633643804342.69979189430770.897964996484011655123233DRYL
2025-11-06 07:00:05FORECAST20264012050.91841.57646.2478.376441525204700.292.873.16FF18.918132.91853325.692802849272.72814671824690.913013765522851655123233DRYL
2025-11-06 03:00:04FORECAST20264012050.5441.88246.2117.64104390175700.32.312.61FF18.54132.5453325.183869140362.48474422024470.906210448428591655124244DRYM
2025-11-05 23:00:02FORECAST20264012049.35241.32445.3389.918645628895700.283.73.98TF17.352127.35253326.757006743073.24098695664320.882293402140221655123233DRYL
2025-11-05 19:00:01FORECAST20264012049.2841.1845.2310.42697448354800.293.914.2TF17.28127.2853327.106868541823.41073497167880.880716789610061655123233WETMH
2025-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20264012048.03840.26244.1510.71595504759300.293.994.28TF16.038125.03853327.305560649593.50739167474830.851163886947411655123233WETMH
2025-11-05 11:00:03FORECAST20264012046.99439.59643.29513.15376927201100.583.894.47TF14.994122.99453328.975917639334.32727331667580.822829962082051645133245WETMH
2025-11-05 10:04:51FORECAST20264012046.99439.59643.29513.15376927201100.583.894.47TF14.994122.99453328.975917639334.32727331667580.822829962082051645133245WETMH
2025-11-05 07:00:06FORECAST20264012047.85840.49644.177000.594.014.6TF15.858127.85853319.8392285849300.84650723081711645135275WETMH
2025-11-05 03:00:03FORECAST20264012047.98440.74844.366000.384.124.5TF15.984127.98453319.8392285849300.84977688361671655125255WETMH
2025-11-04 23:00:03FORECAST20264012047.71439.243.457000.854.315.16TF15.714122.71453319.8392285849300.842713345738341645135275WETMH
2025-11-04 19:00:02FORECAST20264012048.97439.86644.42000.864.145TF16.974121.97453319.8392285849300.873850639785741655135282.5WETMH
2025-11-04 15:00:01FORECAST20264012049.04640.4644.753000.884.65.48TF17.046123.04653319.8392285849300.875490400031991655135282.5WETMH
2025-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20264012047.80439.75843.78100.0110236280.5410236284.174.711023628TF15.804120.80453319.8392285849300.845091668008731645135275WETMH
2025-11-04 07:00:04FORECAST20264012046.54438.53442.53900.0110236280.5610236284.034.591023628TF14.544119.54453319.8392285849300.809632638521031645135275WETMH
2025-11-04 03:00:04FORECAST20264012046.63438.2142.42200.0110236280.3610236283.844.201023628TF14.634119.63453319.8392285849300.812319199243961645125250WETMH
2025-11-03 23:00:03FORECAST20264012045.30236.46440.883000.575.215.78TF13.302115.30253319.8392285849300.770199307502721645135275WETMH
2025-11-03 19:00:03FORECAST20264012045.537.63441.567000.575.225.79TF13.5115.553319.8392285849300.776775508814311645135275WETMH
2025-11-03 15:00:02FORECAST20264012045.75237.5841.666000.665.025.68TF13.752116.75253319.8392285849300.784988460276231645135275WETMH
2025-11-03 11:00:03FORECAST20264012044.67234.5239.596000.784.895.67TF12.672112.67253319.8392285849300.748571183046051645135275WETM
2025-11-03 07:00:03FORECAST20264012042.99831.8237.409000.784.845.62TF10.998109.99853319.8392285849300.686282548035521635135267.5WETM
2025-11-03 03:00:05FORECAST20264012042.58431.7337.157000.724.585.3TF10.584105.58453319.8392285849300.669913610743381635135267.5WETM
2025-11-02 23:00:03FORECAST20264012045.19434.73639.965000.794.044.83TF13.194109.19453319.8392285849300.76656713641751645135275WETM
2025-11-02 19:00:03FORECAST20264012046.9436.69841.819000.794.064.85TF14.94111.9453319.8392285849300.821277439008361645135275WETMH
2025-11-02 15:00:03FORECAST20264012043.17833.67438.426000.734.295.02TF11.178101.17853319.8392285849300.693289174470291635135267.5WETM
2025-11-02 11:00:02FORECAST20264012041.52233.65637.58900.2393702080.8693702085.035.899370208TF9.52296.52253319.8392285849300.62647611198991635135267.5WETM
2025-11-02 07:00:04FORECAST20264012039.54231.67635.60900.2334646930.8634646934.885.743464693TF7.54294.54253319.8392285849300.541471501492221635135267.5WETM
2025-11-02 03:00:04FORECAST20264012039.07432.8135.94200.3358269530.9558269534.795.745826953TF7.074102.07453319.8392285849300.520943447616491635135267.5WETM
2025-11-02 00:00:04FORECAST20264012035.29430.79433.04400.3783466611.1283466617.618.738346661TT3.29493.29453319.8392285849300.357775785742411625145280WETH
2025-11-01 20:00:04FORECAST20264012035.29431.6433.46700.3783466611.1283466617.919.038346661TT3.29493.29453319.8392285849300.357775785742411625145280WETH
2025-11-01 16:00:02FORECAST20264012035.9632.23434.09700.8515752631.6615752637.769.421575263TT3.9691.9653319.8392285849300.3855446444923616251552100WETH
2025-11-01 12:00:04FORECAST20264012038.40831.40634.90701.2023628543.0623628547.2710.332362854TT6.40899.40853319.8392285849300.4916476944942116251552100WETH
2025-11-01 08:00:04FORECAST20264012035.9629.33632.64801.1787407943.0087407947.2510.258740794TT3.9693.9653319.8392285849300.3855446444923616251552100WETH
2025-11-01 04:00:04FORECAST20264012033.20629.51631.36100.8610240872.6710240877.3410.011024087TT1.20684.20653319.8392285849300.2760128900731516251552100WETL
2025-11-01 00:00:03FORECAST20264012030.68627.93229.30901.1094494184.8894494189.0213.909449418TT-1.31487.68653319.8392285849300.191398849866861615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20264012030.68627.93229.30901.1094494184.8894494188.5413.429449418TT-1.31488.68653319.8392285849300.191398849866861615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20264012030.50625.82628.16600.8377957284.5277957288.2812.807795728TT-1.49491.50653319.8392285849300.186031299062771615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 12:00:03FORECAST20264012032.57625.5229.04800.5437010812.2337010818.710.933701081TT0.57692.57653319.8392285849300.2532730497550716251552100WETL
2025-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20264012032.57625.5229.04800.5437010812.2337010818.8111.043701081TT0.57692.57653319.8392285849300.2532730497550716251552100WETL
2025-10-31 04:00:04FORECAST20264012035.27631.2833.27800.6948822652.0348822658.5910.624882265TT3.276104.27653319.8392285849300.3570348705536816251552100WETH
2025-10-31 00:00:02FORECAST20264012035.4231.94633.68300.6429137333.2129137337.8411.052913733TT3.42108.4253319.8392285849300.3629770574847416251552100WETH
2025-10-30 20:00:04FORECAST20264012035.4231.94633.68300.6429137333.2129137337.8511.062913733TT3.42108.4253319.8392285849300.3629770574847416251552100WETH
2025-10-30 16:00:03FORECAST20264012035.47433.18834.33100.3614175182.8314175187.710.531417518TT3.474105.47453319.8392285849300.3652139970838716251552100WETH
2025-10-30 12:00:03FORECAST20264012037.70636.57237.13900.5527562041.6727562047.869.532756204TT5.706112.70653319.8392285849300.4608201786560616251552100WETH
2025-10-30 08:00:03FORECAST20264012037.90436.7737.33700.5527562041.6727562047.899.562756204TT5.904124.90453319.8392285849300.4694993507052616251552100WETH
2025-10-30 04:00:07FORECAST20264012037.437.32837.36400.1448819681.4148819687.488.894881968TT5.4121.453319.8392285849300.447445005072321625145280WETH