MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 8, 2025

[ Friday, November 7, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 9, 2025 ]

DAY 39 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/09/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.58°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.99°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.652
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 136

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.34 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.84 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 8 in
SWE DAY: 54
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 326.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.73 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 119

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 13.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-09 07:00:03OBSERVATION20263911943.5799426.4099234.994938.36284416666670000FF11.57994135.5799454326.71586154586 2.73227383688620.6519662411545116 35113213.5DRYL
2025-11-09 03:00:02OBSERVATION20263911943.5799426.4099234.994938.36284416666670000FF11.57994135.5799454326.71586154586 2.73227383688620.6519662411545116 35113213.5DRYL
2025-11-08 11:00:02FORECAST20263911942.87227.64435.2588.32910880000FF10.872134.87254326.692623369542.72105840420230.625381923105681635113213.5DRYL
2025-11-08 07:00:03FORECAST20263911943.59227.42835.518.09714463333330000FF11.592135.59254326.532783887822.64398317866470.652413139012731635113213.5DRYL
2025-11-08 03:00:03FORECAST20263911943.73628.2235.9788.09340543333330000FF11.736135.73654326.5302065472.64274134781490.657732730901281635113213.5DRYL
2025-11-07 23:00:01FORECAST20263911943.93426.6935.3126.270659200.2200.22FF11.934133.93454325.27091246912.03966303976680.664996207165131635124236DRYL
2025-11-07 19:00:01FORECAST20263911943.01625.71834.3676.34760800.2200.22FF11.016133.01654325.32419260422.0650304475680.630842685043871635124236DRYL
2025-11-07 15:00:01FORECAST20263911943.05226.31234.6826.32546800.2200.22FF11.052133.05254325.308863709122.05773080750840.63220381050011635124236DRYL
2025-11-07 11:00:02FORECAST20263911941.73826.22233.987.22528276188500.2200.22FF9.738131.73854325.931167373662.35494484518590.581580207439171635124236DRYL
2025-11-07 07:00:03FORECAST20263911941.79227.42834.618.159751678424800.3600.36FF9.792131.79254326.575933785662.66477852384070.583693846602781635123227DRYL
2025-11-07 03:00:04FORECAST20263911941.925.82633.8639.054260438604700.6100.61FF9.9131.954327.191696453652.96247883304020.587913814688341635133240.5DRYM
2025-11-06 23:00:02FORECAST20263911941.07226.90633.9898.055788454485503.1903.19TF9.072130.07254326.504276704332.63024938261490.555336744371051635153267.5DRYH
2025-11-06 19:00:02FORECAST20263911940.7326.94233.8367.596193457468503.0603.06TF8.73129.7354326.187272133052.47778162248660.541757909125391635154290DRYVH
2025-11-06 15:00:01FORECAST20263911940.94627.69834.3228.276576763510903.2403.24TF8.946130.94654326.656433382612.70359704618580.550340705342421635153267.5DRYH
2025-11-06 11:00:02FORECAST20263911941.91828.0434.97910.05303466103203.0703.07TF9.918131.91854327.877582325953.29616469969820.588616169602191635153267.5DRYH
2025-11-06 07:00:04FORECAST20263911942.27827.37434.82610.17529192520503.1603.16TF10.278133.27854327.961420301233.33710319176980.602600793682321635153267.5DRYH
2025-11-06 03:00:03FORECAST20263911942.00827.73434.8719.41657350175702.6102.61TF10.008133.00854327.440707989393.08336949424940.59212364332491635153267.5DRYH
2025-11-05 23:00:02FORECAST20263911941.66627.64434.65511.59105202889602.21.783.98TF9.666128.66654328.930384454483.81264920009650.578758364424981635153267.5DRYH
2025-11-05 19:00:01FORECAST20263911941.01827.1434.07912.10813848354802.421.784.2TF9.018129.01854329.28341715133.98700921520390.553196613732091635153267.5WETM
2025-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20263911940.87426.58233.72812.29379904759302.51.784.28TF8.874127.87454329.410060913724.04970109312880.547482187237681635153267.5WETM
2025-11-05 11:00:03FORECAST20263911940.60426.22233.41314.54888447201102.691.784.47TF8.604126.60454330.943552944034.81485951853950.536742010462651635153267.5WETM
2025-11-05 10:04:51FORECAST20263911940.60426.22233.41314.54888447201102.691.784.47TF8.604126.60454330.943552944034.81485951853950.536742010462651635153267.5WETM
2025-11-05 07:00:06FORECAST20263911941.59427.51834.556002.661.944.6TF9.594130.59454320.8938544580800.5759324707341616351552112.5WETM
2025-11-05 03:00:03FORECAST20263911941.70227.87834.79002.372.134.5TF9.702130.70254320.8938544580800.5801698010937316351552112.5WETM
2025-11-04 23:00:03FORECAST20263911940.13627.08633.611002.772.395.16TF8.136126.13654320.8938544580800.5180666407210616351552112.5WETM
2025-11-04 19:00:02FORECAST20263911940.40627.75234.079002.692.315TF8.406124.40654320.8938544580800.5288483749015716351552112.5WETM
2025-11-04 15:00:01FORECAST20263911940.22627.87834.052003.232.255.48TT8.226125.22654320.8938544580800.5216624117604416351552112.5WETH
2025-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20263911941.21626.81634.016002.472.234.7TF9.216124.21654320.8938544580800.5610357125683416351552112.5WETM
2025-11-04 07:00:04FORECAST20263911941.2726.633.935002.542.044.58TF9.27124.2754320.8938544580800.5631696332620316351552112.5WETM
2025-11-04 03:00:04FORECAST20263911940.4625.23232.846002.291.94.19TF8.46124.4654320.8938544580800.5310024405060816351552112.5WETM
2025-11-03 23:00:03FORECAST20263911938.62422.51430.569002.523.265.78TT6.624120.62454320.8938544580800.4576684158566416251552100WETL
2025-11-03 19:00:03FORECAST20263911938.94821.90230.425002.423.375.79TT6.948120.94854320.8938544580800.470576282584516251552100WETL
2025-11-03 15:00:02FORECAST20263911938.69623.77431.235002.433.255.68TT6.696121.69654320.8938544580800.460533458805716251552100WETL
2025-11-03 11:00:03FORECAST20263911936.24822.62229.435002.473.25.67TT4.248119.24854320.8938544580800.3652138369487316251552100WETL
2025-11-03 07:00:03FORECAST20263911935.18621.70428.445002.453.175.62TT3.186118.18654320.8938544580800.3259774315732316251552100WETL
2025-11-03 03:00:05FORECAST20263911935.13221.5628.346002.312.995.3TF3.132114.13254320.8938544580800.3240285264309516251552100WETL
2025-11-02 23:00:02FORECAST20263911936.87821.5629.2190022.834.83TF4.878114.87854320.8938544580800.3892076638744316251552100WETL
2025-11-02 19:00:03FORECAST20263911937.34621.75829.552002.022.834.85TF5.346116.34654320.8938544580800.4073150181269916251552100WETL
2025-11-02 15:00:03FORECAST20263911934.93421.1128.022002.162.865.02TF2.934108.93454320.8938544580800.3169240125597216251552100WETL
2025-11-02 11:00:02FORECAST20263911933.51221.6527.581002.243.425.66TT1.512105.51254320.8938544580800.2679857208759416251552100WETL
2025-11-02 07:00:04FORECAST20263911933.15222.17227.662002.233.285.51TF1.152106.15254320.8938544580800.2562275974502616251552100WETL
2025-11-02 03:00:04FORECAST20263911934.66422.92828.796002.253.165.41TF2.664113.66454320.8938544580800.3073441333572716251552100WETL
2025-11-02 00:00:04FORECAST20263911933.09823.34228.2200.0098425252.0898425256.278.359842525TT1.098109.09854320.8938544580800.2544873352014316251552100WETL
2025-11-01 20:00:04FORECAST20263911934.14223.8128.97600.0098425252.0898425256.578.659842525TT2.142109.14254320.8938544580800.2891948766569516251552100WETL
2025-11-01 16:00:02FORECAST20263911934.8825.57430.22700.1188977022.1588977026.418.568897702TT2.88106.8854320.8938544580800.3149979238209616251552100WETL
2025-11-01 12:00:04FORECAST20263911938.69625.64632.17100.7940949173.4840949175.659.134094917TT6.696111.69654320.8938544580800.460533458805716251552100WETH
2025-11-01 08:00:04FORECAST20263911935.88824.56630.22700.7704728573.4504728575.639.080472857TT3.888108.88854320.8938544580800.3517295587411216251552100WETL
2025-11-01 04:00:04FORECAST20263911933.81824.09828.95800.7830712893.5030712895.659.153071289TT1.818101.81854320.8938544580800.2781891104646116251552100WETL
2025-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20263911935.99627.08631.54102.5759856436.1559856436.6412.795985643TT3.996107.99654320.8938544580800.3557562124813416251552100WETL
2025-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20263911935.99628.99432.49502.5759856436.1559856436.1612.315985643TT3.996108.99654320.8938544580800.3557562124813416251552100WETH
2025-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20263911937.00427.93232.46802.7704739375.9104739376.0611.970473937TT5.004112.00454320.8938544580800.3940608866531416251552100WETH
2025-10-31 12:00:03FORECAST20263911933.40425.77229.58800.1157480943.9957480946.3910.385748094TT1.404111.40454320.8938544580800.2644299953925116251552100WETL
2025-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20263911933.40425.77229.58800.1157480943.9957480946.510.495748094TT1.404111.40454320.8938544580800.2644299953925116251552100WETL
2025-10-31 04:00:04FORECAST20263911938.2128.27433.24200.4165356583.4565356586.479.926535658TT6.21120.2154320.8938544580800.4412415917677816251552100WETH
2025-10-31 00:00:02FORECAST20263911937.97630.4734.22301.2929140844.4329140845.9810.412914084TT5.976123.97654320.8938544580800.4319995434941816251552100WETH
2025-10-30 20:00:03FORECAST20263911937.97630.4734.22301.2929140844.4429140845.9810.422914084TT5.976123.97654320.8938544580800.4319995434941816251552100WETH
2025-10-30 16:00:03FORECAST20263911939.30831.17235.2401.2413392534.2413392535.9310.171339253TT7.308121.30854320.8938544580800.4849541137031716251552100WETH
2025-10-30 12:00:03FORECAST20263911943.35833.60238.4800.7129925113.6629925115.328.982992511TT11.358126.35854320.8938544580800.6437048842181916351552112.5WETH
2025-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20263911942.65634.03438.34500.7129925113.6629925115.359.012992511TT10.656137.65654320.8938544580800.6171437538700816351552112.5WETH
2025-10-30 04:00:07FORECAST20263911942.85432.97237.91300.8681107053.3381107055.418.748110705TT10.854134.85454320.8938544580800.6246975313177116351552112.5WETH
2025-10-30 00:00:02FORECAST20263911938.82235.29437.05800.0933071373.0333071376.39.333307137TT6.822135.82254320.8938544580800.4655521283580216251552100WETH
2025-10-29 20:00:02FORECAST20263911938.82235.1536.98600.0940945393.0140945396.069.074094539TT6.822130.82254320.8938544580800.4655521283580216251552100WETH
2025-10-29 16:00:02FORECAST20263911935.13232.37833.75500.0948819412.9248819416.028.944881941TT3.132124.13254320.8938544580800.3240285264309516251552100WETH
2025-10-29 12:00:03FORECAST20263911937.59835.97836.788002.825.238.05TT5.598121.59854320.8938544580800.4171504983887216251552100WETH
2025-10-29 08:00:04FORECAST20263911937.59835.97836.788002.825.448.26TT5.598125.59854320.8938544580800.4171504983887216251552100WETH
2025-10-29 04:00:05FORECAST20263911934.03433.76433.899002.965.38.26TT2.034126.03454320.8938544580800.2855036359944816251552100WETH