MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 7, 2025

[ Thursday, November 6, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 8, 2025 ]

DAY 38 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/08/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.48°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.212
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 147

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.33 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.19 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.84 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 9 in
SWE DAY: 55
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 328.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.89 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 118

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-08 07:00:03OBSERVATION20263811832.0100827.4800229.745058.80247583333330000FF0.010080000000002147.0100855328.04591057257 2.88761620003890.2115773072642716 15113210.5DRYL
2025-11-08 03:00:03OBSERVATION20263811832.0100827.4800229.745058.80247583333330000FF0.010080000000002147.0100855328.04591057257 2.88761620003890.2115773072642716 15113210.5DRYL
2025-11-07 11:00:01FORECAST20263811829.73223.9926.8617.8103691618850.2177166530.21771665300.217716653FF-2.268144.73255327.365033977272.55684176605550.148164670600741615123221DRYL
2025-11-07 07:00:03FORECAST20263811830.45224.15227.3028.74405087842480.3598427140.35984271400.359842714FF-1.548145.45255328.005861419972.86809994067780.166671526657891615123221DRYL
2025-11-07 03:00:04FORECAST20263811830.00225.10627.5549.64958043860470.6094491480.60944914800.609449148FF-1.998145.00255328.625916755343.17110221794090.154937399321411615133231.5DRYL
2025-11-06 23:00:01FORECAST20263811830.41625.10627.7618.61558605448550.425197083.1851970803.18519708TF-1.584144.41655327.91778041672.8252038559760.165712270696411615153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-06 19:00:01FORECAST20263811830.16425.41227.7888.13709825746850.3011812653.06118126503.061181265TF-1.836144.16455327.589455619262.66562758848450.15909741556071615153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-06 15:00:01FORECAST20263811830.57825.21427.8968.83066716351090.4818900243.24189002403.241890024TF-1.422144.57855328.065233046922.8970348809570.170057006015311615153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-06 11:00:02FORECAST20263811830.9226.43828.67910.6655746610320.3133859963.07338599603.073385996TF-1.08144.9255329.319916412223.51238615585950.179465984150981615153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-06 07:00:04FORECAST20263811831.56826.29428.93110.8383111252050.2925198433.16251984303.162519843TF-0.432145.56855329.437730242813.57054861675290.198168840830411615153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-06 03:00:03FORECAST20263811831.47825.98828.73310.0721143017570.3039371722.61393717202.613937172TF-0.522146.47855328.914756374423.31286702173770.195503191772641615153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-05 23:00:02FORECAST20263811831.53226.07828.80512.1885368288960.283464723.9834647203.98346472TF-0.468141.53255330.356864252224.02656680661660.197099963973331615153252.5DRYMH
2025-11-05 19:00:01FORECAST20263811831.6426.58229.11112.6948976835480.2858269264.19582692604.195826926TF-0.36142.6455330.700745424324.19821212703470.200317043729121615153252.5WETL
2025-11-05 15:00:03FORECAST20263811831.71225.55628.63412.8407062475930.2937009464.28370094604.283700946TF-0.288141.71255330.799685348444.24770158635570.20247914834561615153252.5WETL
2025-11-05 11:00:03FORECAST20263811831.42425.48428.45415.0715852720110.5822837794.47228377904.472283779TF-0.576141.42455332.308911309525.00842209345050.193914283916551615152235WETL
2025-11-05 10:04:51FORECAST20263811831.42425.48428.45415.0715852720110.5822837794.47228377904.472283779TF-0.576141.42455332.308911309525.00842209345050.193914283916551615152235WETL
2025-11-05 07:00:06FORECAST20263811832.07226.04229.05700.5948822114.60488221104.604882211TT0.072000000000003144.07255321.9444803576800.21349679159911615155287.5WETL
2025-11-05 03:00:03FORECAST20263811831.85626.67229.26400.3783466614.49834666104.498346661TF-0.144143.85655321.9444803576800.206844907748091615155287.5WETL
2025-11-04 23:00:02FORECAST20263811830.6524.83627.74300.8476382534.6676382530.495.157638253TT-1.35140.6555321.9444803576800.172011165821791615155287.5WETL
2025-11-04 19:00:02FORECAST20263811830.39825.19627.79700.8649610974.5149610970.495.004961097TT-1.602139.39855321.9444803576800.165233980624261615155287.5WETL
2025-11-04 15:00:01FORECAST20263811830.72226.13228.42700.8755910244.9855910240.495.475591024TT-1.278139.72255321.9444803576800.173979566487651615155287.5WETL
2025-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20263811830.14625.6127.87800.5291341444.2091341440.494.699134144TT-1.854138.14655321.9444803576800.158631620550811615155287.5WETL
2025-11-04 07:00:04FORECAST20263811830.09225.12427.60800.5456695864.1856695860.394.575669586TF-1.908138.09255321.9444803576800.157239592126121615155287.5WETL
2025-11-04 03:00:03FORECAST20263811829.85825.21427.53600.3539371993.8239371990.374.193937199TF-2.142138.85855321.9444803576800.151300301464151615155287.5WETL
2025-11-03 23:00:03FORECAST20263811832.23423.14427.68900.5732286564.0732286561.715.783228656TT0.234137.23455321.9444803576800.218566353848671615155287.5WETL
2025-11-03 19:00:03FORECAST20263811833.00822.5527.77900.5665357393.9765357391.815.786535739TT1.008137.00855321.9444803576800.243721412744741615155287.5WETL
2025-11-03 15:00:02FORECAST20263811833.33223.70228.51700.661417683.811417681.875.68141768TT1.332138.33255321.9444803576800.2546971176675216251552100WETL
2025-11-03 11:00:02FORECAST20263811832.66624.4428.55300.7826775883.8526775881.825.672677588TT0.666137.66655321.9444803576800.232418295635491615155287.5WETL
2025-11-03 07:00:03FORECAST20263811831.53224.3527.94100.7826775883.8826775881.745.622677588TT-0.468137.53255321.9444803576800.197099963973331615155287.5WETL
2025-11-03 03:00:05FORECAST20263811830.63224.36827.500.7216539333.6816539331.625.301653933TT-1.368133.63255321.9444803576800.171521290315141615155287.5WETL
2025-11-02 23:00:02FORECAST20263811831.76624.11627.94100.7929138143.2429138141.594.832913814TF-0.234132.76655321.9444803576800.204109826855741615155287.5WETL
2025-11-02 19:00:02FORECAST20263811833.18824.49428.84100.7929138143.2229138141.634.852913814TF1.188134.18855321.9444803576800.249787346548716251552100WETL
2025-11-02 15:00:03FORECAST20263811832.66623.16227.91400.7303153553.3403153551.685.020315355TF0.666128.66655321.9444803576800.232418295635491615155287.5WETL
2025-11-02 11:00:01FORECAST20263811832.46824.20628.33700.6271656933.7871656931.875.657165693TT0.468127.46855321.9444803576800.226009805649511615155287.5WETL
2025-11-02 07:00:04FORECAST20263811832.28824.58428.43600.6314964043.7314964041.785.511496404TT0.288128.28855321.9444803576800.220271457772221615155287.5WETL
2025-11-02 03:00:04FORECAST20263811833.54825.1629.35400.6153546633.6753546631.735.405354663TT1.548133.54855321.9444803576800.2621553064364416251552100WETL
2025-11-02 00:00:03FORECAST20263811831.98224.9828.48100.7433074884.0033074884.358.353307488TT-0.018000000000001130.98255321.9444803576800.210710177355491615155287.5WETL
2025-11-01 20:00:03FORECAST20263811829.82225.77227.79700.7433074883.9833074884.678.653307488TT-2.178129.82255321.9444803576800.150399948644481615155287.5WETL
2025-11-01 16:00:01FORECAST20263811830.09227.01428.55300.6940948633.8640948634.598.454094863TT-1.908127.09255321.9444803576800.157239592126121615155287.5WETL
2025-11-01 12:00:03FORECAST20263811830.226.92428.56201.0673234114.33732341148.337323411TT-1.8128.255321.9444803576800.160031683853171615155287.5WETL
2025-11-01 08:00:04FORECAST20263811830.59626.29428.44501.0622052984.3222052983.998.312205298TT-1.404127.59655321.9444803576800.170544210234141615155287.5WETL
2025-11-01 04:00:04FORECAST20263811830.18226.25828.2201.0307092184.5907092183.788.370709218TT-1.818123.18255321.9444803576800.159564103332541615155287.5WETL
2025-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20263811832.0928.5830.33501.2027565555.2027565555.0210.222756555TT0.090000000000003127.0955321.9444803576800.214056675683921615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20263811831.44228.92230.18201.2027565555.2027565554.549.742756555TT-0.558128.44255321.9444803576800.194443045195771615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20263811830.8328.77829.80400.9188981344.7488981344.459.198898134TT-1.17129.8355321.9444803576800.176958839872451615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20263811832.41428.6730.54201.5716543925.4416543924.8310.271654392TT0.414133.41455321.9444803576800.224279500945981615155287.5WETL
2025-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20263811833.20628.72430.96501.5716543925.4416543924.9410.381654392TT1.206133.20655321.9444803576800.2503983116108816251552100WETL
2025-10-31 04:00:04FORECAST20263811833.7129.62431.66700.9169296294.5769296294.939.506929629TT1.71136.7155321.9444803576800.2678213907859616251552100WETL
2025-10-31 00:00:02FORECAST20263811836.93230.66833.801.2767723434.6267723434.499.116772343TT4.932140.93255321.9444803576800.3915127934114316251552100WETH
2025-10-30 20:00:03FORECAST20263811837.65230.66834.1601.2767723434.6467723434.489.126772343TT5.652140.65255321.9444803576800.4213261902154716251552100WETH
2025-10-30 16:00:02FORECAST20263811838.04831.24434.64601.2334652334.5734652334.368.933465233TT6.048137.04855321.9444803576800.4379298109293716251552100WETH
2025-10-30 12:00:03FORECAST20263811836.69832.93634.81700.4066931334.3866931333.888.266693133TT4.698137.69855321.9444803576800.3819500450001316251552100WETH
2025-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20263811837.79633.2635.52800.4066931334.3866931333.918.296693133TT5.796149.79655321.9444803576800.427349315245816251552100WETH
2025-10-30 04:00:06FORECAST20263811837.32832.68435.00600.3964569073.7464569074.137.876456907TT5.328147.32855321.9444803576800.407843324907416251552100WETH
2025-10-30 00:00:02FORECAST20263811840.02835.85237.9401.4570874014.2170874015.029.237087401TT8.028152.02855321.9444803576800.5220062520252216351552112.5WETH
2025-10-29 20:00:02FORECAST20263811840.15435.70837.93101.413386594.203386594.788.98338659TT8.154147.15455321.9444803576800.5273630360786616351552112.5WETH
2025-10-29 16:00:02FORECAST20263811839.61435.31237.46301.3925204374.1025204374.758.852520437TT7.614143.61455321.9444803576800.5043825719041116351552112.5WETH
2025-10-29 12:00:03FORECAST20263811839.84834.9737.40901.4783472553.8583472554.198.048347255TT7.848138.84855321.9444803576800.5143470413652416351552112.5WETH
2025-10-29 08:00:04FORECAST20263811839.84834.9737.40901.4783472553.8583472554.48.258347255TT7.848142.84855321.9444803576800.5143470413652416351552112.5WETH
2025-10-29 04:00:05FORECAST20263811839.5633.49436.52701.488189784.018189784.248.25818978TT7.56146.5655321.9444803576800.5020824640037116351552112.5WETH
2025-10-29 00:00:03FORECAST20263811834.46631.26232.86400.1665355232.6465355234.717.356535523TT2.466131.46655321.9444803576800.2950513432420316251552100WETH
2025-10-28 20:00:06FORECAST20263811833.78230.84832.31500.1665355232.6465355234.617.256535523TT1.782132.78255321.9444803576800.2703592808435516251552100WETH
2025-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20263811836.06832.97234.5200.1688977292.5188977295.057.568897729TT4.068134.06855321.9444803576800.3565743091309816251552100WETH
2025-10-28 12:00:03FORECAST20263811842.06240.20841.13500.0102362261.9202362265.537.450236226TT10.062154.06255321.9444803576800.6073292950017816351552112.5WETH
2025-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20263811842.06240.20841.13500.0102362261.9202362265.397.310236226TT10.062161.06255321.9444803576800.6073292950017816351552112.5WETH
2025-10-28 04:00:06FORECAST20263811840.06439.6539.857001.865.297.15TT8.064158.06455321.9444803576800.5235372100210916351552112.5WETH