MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 6, 2025

[ Wednesday, November 5, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, November 7, 2025 ]

DAY 37 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/07/2025 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.24°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.02°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.63°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.446
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 151

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.14 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.51 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.65 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 7 in
SWE DAY: 56
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 328.12 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.43 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 117

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 16.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-07 07:00:02OBSERVATION20263711738.2400629.0199233.629997.40976208333330000FF6.24006151.2400656328.11673988326 2.43126697809390.4462002362375616 25114216DRYL
2025-11-07 03:00:04OBSERVATION20263711738.2400629.0199233.629997.40976208333330000FF6.24006151.2400656328.11673988326 2.43126697809390.4462002362375616 25114216DRYL
2025-11-06 11:00:01FORECAST20263711736.57227.75232.1629.53114350682282.763781022.7637810202.76378102TF4.572149.57256329.56650600063.14114566373390.374861222328451625153260DRYH
2025-11-06 07:00:04FORECAST20263711737.16629.4833.3239.81180673118842.8712613932.87126139302.871261393TF5.166150.16656329.757728645483.23551910158510.3999117086281625153260DRYH
2025-11-06 03:00:03FORECAST20263711737.70629.60633.6568.98122812621732.3102374682.31023746802.310237468FF5.706150.70656329.191439900892.95654341894780.423051016826681625153260DRYH
2025-11-05 23:00:01FORECAST20263711737.43629.19233.31411.1334228874831.9181112723.69811127203.698111272TF5.436146.43656330.656347653623.68133694885850.411442863477241625153260DRYH
2025-11-05 19:00:01FORECAST20263711737.52629.67833.60211.6333980968192.1283476063.90834760603.908347606TF5.526146.52656330.995514858153.85060259260630.415304173136141625153260DRYH
2025-11-05 15:00:02FORECAST20263711737.47230.05633.76411.7536478643142.2149618263.99496182603.994961826TF5.472146.47256331.077024223433.8913627586870.412986380661071625153260DRYH
2025-11-05 11:00:03FORECAST20263711737.3130.3833.84512.9138116156752.1059066493.88590664903.885906649TF5.31146.3156331.86214504714.28560522351210.4060514862171625153260DRYH
2025-11-05 10:04:51FORECAST20263711737.3130.3833.84512.9138116156752.1059066493.88590664903.885906649TF5.31146.3156331.86214504714.28560522351210.4060514862171625153260DRYH
2025-11-05 07:00:06FORECAST20263711738.40830.5634.48402.0724420644.01244206404.012442064TF6.408148.40856322.9911214547700.4535216613390516251552100WETM
2025-11-05 03:00:02FORECAST20263711737.95831.4634.70901.9944892664.12448926604.124489266TF5.958147.95856322.9911214547700.4339461102583316251552100WETM
2025-11-04 23:00:02FORECAST20263711736.5930.50633.54801.9181112724.30811127204.308111272TF4.59145.5956322.9911214547700.3756132118133516251552100WETM
2025-11-04 19:00:02FORECAST20263711736.71630.57833.64701.830709654.1407096504.14070965TF4.716144.71656322.9911214547700.3808902230523816251552100WETM
2025-11-04 15:00:01FORECAST20263711736.39230.70433.54802.3460642594.59606425904.596064259TT4.392145.39256322.9911214547700.3673679044000116251552100WETH
2025-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20263711735.9630.27233.11601.9413396314.17133963104.171339631TF3.96143.9656322.9911214547700.3495934269101616251552100WETM
2025-11-04 07:00:04FORECAST20263711735.45630.1132.78301.9905522564.03055225604.030552256TF3.456144.45656322.9911214547700.3292678853821216251552100WETM
2025-11-04 03:00:03FORECAST20263711735.58229.9332.75601.9366152193.83661521903.836615219TF3.582144.58256322.9911214547700.3343050830794716251552100DRYVH
2025-11-03 23:00:02FORECAST20263711735.92430.3833.15201.9503947543.9803947541.235.210394754TT3.924140.92456322.9911214547700.3481263614774916251552100WETH
2025-11-03 19:00:02FORECAST20263711735.99630.45233.22401.8535443083.9935443081.235.223544308TT3.996139.99656322.9911214547700.3510627408787816251552100WETH
2025-11-03 15:00:02FORECAST20263711735.79830.3833.08901.7724419023.7924419021.235.022441902TT3.798140.79856322.9911214547700.3430096211391416251552100WETH
2025-11-03 11:00:02FORECAST20263711735.6930.7433.21501.6885835893.6585835891.234.888583589TF3.69140.6956322.9911214547700.3386465852489516251552100WETM
2025-11-03 07:00:03FORECAST20263711735.7830.7433.2601.6716544463.6916544461.154.841654446TF3.78141.7856322.9911214547700.3422809747446216251552100WETM
2025-11-03 03:00:05FORECAST20263711736.06830.4733.26901.5937016483.4337016481.154.583701648TF4.068139.06856322.9911214547700.3540080356840916251552100WETM
2025-11-02 23:00:02FORECAST20263711736.06830.32633.19701.2118116783.1118116780.934.041811678TF4.068137.06856322.9911214547700.3540080356840916251552100WETM
2025-11-02 19:00:02FORECAST20263711735.74430.88433.31401.2334652333.1134652330.954.063465233TF3.744136.74456322.9911214547700.3408254433203616251552100WETM
2025-11-02 15:00:03FORECAST20263711733.33229.10231.21701.4263787233.3263787230.964.286378723TF1.332132.33256322.9911214547700.2495466944789616251552100WETL
2025-11-02 11:00:01FORECAST20263711733.42230.0231.72101.6078748844.0978748840.935.027874884TT1.422131.42256322.9911214547700.2527050181243416251552100WETL
2025-11-02 07:00:04FORECAST20263711733.69230.07431.88301.5996071634.0296071630.854.879607163TT1.692131.69256322.9911214547700.2623046498409616251552100WETL
2025-11-02 03:00:04FORECAST20263711734.05230.25432.15301.6303158413.8803158410.914.790315841TF2.052136.05256322.9911214547700.2753881466754316251552100WETM
2025-11-02 00:00:03FORECAST20263711733.81829.7531.78401.3389771014.0589771013.557.608977101TT1.818134.81856322.9911214547700.2668474664598316251552100WETL
2025-11-01 20:00:03FORECAST20263711733.83629.69631.76601.3389771014.1289771013.787.908977101TT1.836135.83656322.9911214547700.2674996661733816251552100WETL
2025-11-01 16:00:01FORECAST20263711733.63830.41632.02701.3531503374.0231503373.747.763150337TT1.638132.63856322.9911214547700.2603699098598516251552100WETH
2025-11-01 12:00:03FORECAST20263711734.23230.43432.33301.6200796153.8300796153.447.270079615TT2.232134.23256322.9911214547700.2820480508474116251552100WETH
2025-11-01 08:00:03FORECAST20263711734.28629.98432.13501.6216544193.8216544193.437.251654419TT2.286133.28656322.9911214547700.2840610225208216251552100WETH
2025-11-01 04:00:04FORECAST20263711733.49429.89431.69401.6897646924.1097646923.237.339764692TT1.494129.49456322.9911214547700.255246729478716251552100WETL
2025-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20263711735.94231.13633.53902.3811036484.6111036484.419.021103648TT3.942130.94256322.9911214547700.3488596119020416251552100WETH
2025-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20263711736.03231.04633.53902.3811036484.5011036484.048.541103648TT4.032133.03256322.9911214547700.3525342837235116251552100WETH
2025-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20263711736.28431.04633.66502.224410654.334410653.958.28441065TT4.284135.28456322.9911214547700.3628958198490916251552100WETH
2025-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20263711736.64431.11833.88102.3051193554.2351193554.468.695119355TT4.644136.64456322.9911214547700.3778720055164316251552100WETH
2025-10-31 08:00:02FORECAST20263711735.49230.68633.08902.3051193554.2351193554.578.805119355TT3.492136.49256322.9911214547700.3307039778693816251552100WETH
2025-10-31 04:00:04FORECAST20263711736.06830.63233.3502.1169302774.0169302774.578.586930277TT4.068139.06856322.9911214547700.3540080356840916251552100WETH
2025-10-31 00:00:02FORECAST20263711737.72432.25234.98801.8618120294.0818120293.767.841812029TT5.724139.72456322.9911214547700.4238273921875116251552100WETH
2025-10-30 20:00:03FORECAST20263711737.7632.57635.16801.866142744.076142743.777.84614274TT5.76138.7656322.9911214547700.4253810271800216251552100WETH
2025-10-30 16:00:02FORECAST20263711738.1232.4535.28501.7692922943.9392922943.767.699292294TT6.12135.1256322.9911214547700.4409772347911116251552100WETH
2025-10-30 12:00:02FORECAST20263711736.4132.21634.31302.5425210584.9125210582.957.862521058TT4.41137.4156322.9911214547700.3681150223159316251552100WETH
2025-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20263711740.11833.15236.63502.5425210584.9125210582.987.892521058TT8.118148.11856322.9911214547700.5285352411394416351552112.5WETH
2025-10-30 04:00:06FORECAST20263711738.91233.56636.23902.0720483634.3020483633.187.482048363TT6.912145.91256322.9911214547700.4755788765087216251552100WETH
2025-10-30 00:00:02FORECAST20263711739.16435.36637.26501.4779535543.4879535544.297.777953554TT7.164148.16456322.9911214547700.4866398963034616251552100WETH
2025-10-29 20:00:02FORECAST20263711739.39835.52837.46301.5110244383.5210244384.057.571024438TT7.398143.39856322.9911214547700.4969202369534616251552100WETH
2025-10-29 16:00:02FORECAST20263711738.17433.78235.97801.4417330623.4017330624.067.461733062TT6.174140.17456322.9911214547700.4433251964624716251552100WETH
2025-10-29 12:00:03FORECAST20263711738.08432.79235.43801.3366148952.8566148953.716.566614895TT6.084135.08456322.9911214547700.4394130735218516251552100WETH
2025-10-29 08:00:04FORECAST20263711738.08432.79235.43801.3366148952.8566148953.926.776614895TT6.084139.08456322.9911214547700.4394130735218516251552100WETH
2025-10-29 04:00:05FORECAST20263711737.74232.95435.34801.4744102452.9044102453.876.774410245TT5.742142.74256322.9911214547700.4246040632854416251552100WETH
2025-10-29 00:00:03FORECAST20263711735.630.36232.98101.3086621242.8786621244.317.188662124TT3.6132.656322.9911214547700.3350271498788716251552100WETH
2025-10-28 20:00:06FORECAST20263711736.62629.49833.06201.3086621242.8786621244.217.088662124TT4.626134.62656322.9911214547700.3771186060697816251552100WETH
2025-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20263711736.48229.40832.94501.4940952952.9340952954.477.404095295TT4.482134.48256322.9911214547700.3711084573464116251552100WETH
2025-10-28 12:00:03FORECAST20263711744.29431.51437.90401.2803156522.8603156524.587.440315652TT12.294148.29456322.9911214547700.7024928989342716451552125WETH
2025-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20263711744.13233.15238.64201.2803156522.8603156524.447.300315652TT12.132155.13256322.9911214547700.6962825383943316351552112.5WETH
2025-10-28 04:00:06FORECAST20263711744.54632.25238.39901.2838589612.6838589614.477.153858961TT12.546153.54656322.9911214547700.7120365179860916451552125WETH
2025-10-28 00:00:04FORECAST20263711735.04228.72431.88300.1362205461.3862205464.595.976220546TF3.042149.04256322.9911214547700.312937907129351625145280WETL
2025-10-27 20:00:03FORECAST20263711735.04228.72431.88300.1362205461.3862205464.636.016220546TF3.042149.04256322.9911214547700.312937907129351625145280WETL
2025-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20263711736.7732.25234.51100.2157481482.4657481484.667.125748148TT4.77153.7756322.9911214547700.3831586617225716251552100WETH
2025-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20263711737.52635.9636.74300.1933071912.5033071914.166.663307191TT5.526149.52656322.9911214547700.4153041731361416251552100WETH
2025-10-27 08:00:03FORECAST20263711737.52635.9636.74300.1933071912.5233071914.16.623307191TT5.526155.52656322.9911214547700.4153041731361416251552100WETH
2025-10-27 04:00:05FORECAST20263711733.69233.1733.43100.0515748312.2715748313.956.221574831TT1.692151.69256322.9911214547700.2623046498409616251552100WETH