MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 5, 2025

[ Tuesday, November 4, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, November 6, 2025 ]

DAY 36 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/06/2025 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.13°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.41°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.77°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.462
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 152

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.85 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.82 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.50 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.68 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 7 in
SWE DAY: 57
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 328.94 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 2.34 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 116

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 4
D5: 2
HSdry: 16.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-11-06 07:00:03OBSERVATION20263611640.1300633.4099436.777.11448708333330000FF8.13006152.1300657328.93832567544 2.34022746923120.4620784083691216 25114216DRYL
2025-11-06 03:00:03OBSERVATION20263611640.1300633.4099436.777.11448708333330000FF8.13006152.1300657328.93832567544 2.34022746923120.4620784083691216 25114216DRYL
2025-11-05 11:00:02FORECAST20263611636.24832.88234.56510.5864604447761.775591511.7755915101.77559151FF4.248148.24857331.299820114573.50729244100450.301522729625651625153260DRYH
2025-11-05 10:04:51FORECAST20263611636.24832.88234.56510.5864604447761.775591511.7755915101.77559151FF4.248148.24857331.299820114573.50729244100450.301522729625651625153260DRYH
2025-11-05 07:00:06FORECAST20263611637.23833.4435.33901.9437018371.94370183701.943701837FF5.238149.23857324.0337928628900.3402855561981316251552100DRYVH
2025-11-05 03:00:02FORECAST20263611637.1333.90835.51902.1334657192.13346571902.133465719FF5.13149.1357324.0337928628900.3359642040365316251552100DRYVH
2025-11-04 23:00:01FORECAST20263611637.65232.935.27601.9031506342.39315063402.393150634FF5.652147.65257324.0337928628900.3570414181676316251552100DRYVH
2025-11-04 19:00:02FORECAST20263611637.41832.93635.17701.8153553112.30535531102.305355311FF5.418147.41857324.0337928628900.3475343698098516251552100DRYVH
2025-11-04 15:00:01FORECAST20263611637.72432.66635.19501.7570875632.24708756302.247087563FF5.724147.72457324.0337928628900.3599849349285716251552100DRYVH
2025-11-04 11:00:02FORECAST20263611636.9531.8234.38501.7366151112.22661511102.226615111FF4.95146.9557324.0337928628900.3288101071693916251552100DRYVH
2025-11-04 07:00:03FORECAST20263611636.82431.9134.36701.6492134892.03921348902.039213489FF4.824147.82457324.0337928628900.323839081645516251552100DRYVH
2025-11-04 03:00:03FORECAST20263611636.62631.87434.2501.5251976741.89519767401.895197674FF4.626147.62657324.0337928628900.3160907951538516251552100DRYVH
2025-11-03 23:00:02FORECAST20263611636.87832.2734.57401.5488197343.25881973403.258819734TF4.878143.87857324.0337928628900.3259657439491516251552100DRYVH
2025-11-03 19:00:02FORECAST20263611636.8632.37834.61901.5606307643.37063076403.370630764TF4.86142.8657324.0337928628900.3252562233311216251552100DRYVH
2025-11-03 15:00:01FORECAST20263611637.00432.07234.53801.3842527163.25425271603.254252716TF5.004144.00457324.0337928628900.3309499125879616251552100DRYVH
2025-11-03 11:00:02FORECAST20263611636.78832.19834.49301.3838590153.20385901503.203859015TF4.788143.78857324.0337928628900.322424487186816251552100DRYVH
2025-11-03 07:00:02FORECAST20263611636.8423234.42101.4338590423.17385904203.173859042TF4.842144.84257324.0337928628900.324547335170216251552100DRYVH
2025-11-03 03:00:04FORECAST20263611636.24831.65833.95301.3673235732.98732357302.987323573TF4.248142.24857324.0337928628900.3015227296256516251552100DRYVH
2025-11-02 23:00:02FORECAST20263611636.33831.65833.99801.236221142.766221140.062.82622114TF4.338140.33857324.0337928628900.3049638998735616251552100DRYVH
2025-11-02 19:00:02FORECAST20263611636.69831.85634.27701.1956699372.7656699370.062.825669937TF4.698139.69857324.0337928628900.3188992583805716251552100DRYVH
2025-11-02 15:00:03FORECAST20263611635.52831.06433.29601.1755911862.7955911860.062.855591186TF3.528137.52857324.0337928628900.2746452284388616251552100DRYVH
2025-11-02 11:00:01FORECAST20263611635.49231.35233.42201.547244933.357244930.063.41724493TF3.492137.49257324.0337928628900.2733329526382616251552100DRYVH
2025-11-02 07:00:04FORECAST20263611635.20431.20833.20601.4968512023.2268512020.053.276851202TF3.204137.20457324.0337928628900.262947733564516251552100DRYVH
2025-11-02 03:00:04FORECAST20263611635.76230.97433.36801.4311031353.0411031350.123.161103135TF3.762140.76257324.0337928628900.2832498947549416251552100DRYVH
2025-11-02 00:00:03FORECAST20263611635.45630.88433.1701.9165364683.1665364683.16.266536468TT3.456140.45657324.0337928628900.2720237858381316251552100WETH
2025-11-01 20:00:03FORECAST20263611635.54630.99233.26901.9000010263.2000010263.376.570001026TT3.546140.54657324.0337928628900.2753025281638816251552100WETH
2025-11-01 16:00:01FORECAST20263611635.02430.90232.96301.8216545273.0416545273.376.411654527TT3.024138.02457324.0337928628900.2565608355785516251552100WETH
2025-11-01 12:00:03FORECAST20263611635.58231.33433.45801.6476386852.3176386853.335.647638685TT3.582138.58257324.0337928628900.2766194430929916251552100WETH
2025-11-01 08:00:03FORECAST20263611635.54630.79433.1701.6425205722.2525205723.385.632520572TT3.546137.54657324.0337928628900.2753025281638816251552100WETH
2025-11-01 04:00:03FORECAST20263611634.77230.50632.63901.8696860492.4196860493.235.649686049TT2.772134.77257324.0337928628900.247756649220571615155287.5WETH
2025-11-01 00:00:02FORECAST20263611635.72631.133.41301.6240166252.5940166254.056.644016625TT3.726133.72657324.0337928628900.2819177324303716251552100WETH
2025-10-31 20:00:02FORECAST20263611636.0531.15433.60201.6240166252.5340166253.636.164016625TT4.05136.0557324.0337928628900.2940143175776716251552100WETH
2025-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20263611636.60831.1933.89901.6133866982.5333866983.536.063386698TT4.608137.60857324.0337928628900.3153903247066216251552100WETH
2025-10-31 12:00:02FORECAST20263611637.77832.19834.98801.5614181663.0814181663.316.391418166TT5.778138.77857324.0337928628900.3621980427176416251552100WETH
2025-10-31 08:00:01FORECAST20263611638.08432.37835.23101.5614181663.2414181663.266.501418166TT6.084140.08457324.0337928628900.3748241310549816251552100WETH
2025-10-31 04:00:04FORECAST20263611639.66832.77436.22101.5421268173.2121268173.266.472126817TT7.668141.66857324.0337928628900.4420542769303816251552100WETH
2025-10-31 00:00:02FORECAST20263611639.6533.09836.37401.4937015943.1837015942.85.983701594TT7.65140.6557324.0337928628900.4412768685362916251552100WETH
2025-10-30 20:00:03FORECAST20263611640.5533.85437.20201.5023630163.1723630162.815.982363016TT8.55139.5557324.0337928628900.4803623344375816251552100WETH
2025-10-30 16:00:02FORECAST20263611640.58633.78237.18401.5748043.0948042.845.934804TT8.586135.58657324.0337928628900.4819322264135416251552100WETH
2025-10-30 12:00:02FORECAST20263611641.52234.95238.23701.4374023512.7174023512.65.317402351TF9.522139.52257324.0337928628900.5227765116428116351552112.5WETM
2025-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20263611642.42236.35639.38901.4374023512.7174023512.635.347402351TF10.422147.42257324.0337928628900.5618304738382416351552112.5WETM
2025-10-30 04:00:06FORECAST20263611641.73835.81638.77701.2775597452.6275597452.785.407559745TF9.738145.73857324.0337928628900.532183799743916351552112.5WETM
2025-10-30 00:00:02FORECAST20263611643.32235.52839.42501.2822841572.4722841573.836.302284157TT11.322148.32257324.0337928628900.60029100051416351552112.5WETH
2025-10-29 20:00:01FORECAST20263611642.56635.97839.27201.279528252.469528253.596.05952825TT10.566142.56657324.0337928628900.5680335494754516351552112.5WETH
2025-10-29 16:00:02FORECAST20263611642.22434.66438.44401.2712605292.4012605293.626.021260529TT10.224141.22457324.0337928628900.5532766884782816351552112.5WETH
2025-10-29 12:00:02FORECAST20263611641.23433.99837.61601.0358273311.5158273313.715.225827331TF9.234136.23457324.0337928628900.5102145970916916351552112.5WETM
2025-10-29 08:00:04FORECAST20263611639.48833.99836.74301.0358273311.5158273313.925.435827331TF7.488140.48857324.0337928628900.4342907239910316251552100WETM
2025-10-29 04:00:04FORECAST20263611639.95634.73637.34601.0633864011.4333864013.875.303386401TF7.956143.95657324.0337928628900.454521155437971625145280WETM
2025-10-29 00:00:03FORECAST20263611637.56231.69434.62801.1720478771.8220478774.065.882047877TT5.562135.56257324.0337928628900.3533739667530816251552100WETH
2025-10-28 20:00:06FORECAST20263611637.45431.69434.57401.1720478771.8220478773.965.782047877TF5.454137.45457324.0337928628900.3489909474695416251552100WETM
2025-10-28 16:00:02FORECAST20263611635.85229.8432.84600.8618114891.6918114894.225.911811489TT3.852136.85257324.0337928628900.2865934326631916251552100WETH
2025-10-28 12:00:02FORECAST20263611639.09231.71235.40200.6334649091.6134649094.556.163464909TT7.092143.09257324.0337928628900.4173039099575516251552100WETH
2025-10-28 08:00:03FORECAST20263611639.97433.65636.81500.6334649091.6134649094.416.023464909TT7.974149.97457324.0337928628900.4553019553152616251552100WETH
2025-10-28 04:00:06FORECAST20263611640.94633.1737.05800.5834648821.4334648824.445.873464882TF8.946147.94657324.0337928628900.497642541392841625145280WETM
2025-10-28 00:00:03FORECAST20263611644.47435.640.03700.1440945661.7140945664.135.844094566TF12.474153.47457324.0337928628900.6480892347732416351552112.5WETMH
2025-10-27 20:00:03FORECAST20263611644.47435.640.03700.1440945661.7140945664.175.884094566TT12.474153.47457324.0337928628900.6480892347732416351552112.5WETH
2025-10-27 16:00:03FORECAST20263611644.09637.43640.76600.9716540682.7816540684.136.911654068TT12.096156.09657324.0337928628900.6326202136135416351552112.5WETH
2025-10-27 12:00:02FORECAST20263611640.60436.06838.33601.4366149492.3266149494.146.466614949TT8.604150.60457324.0337928628900.4827172790023816251552100WETH
2025-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20263611639.95635.7837.86801.5751977012.3451977014.086.425197701TT7.956156.95657324.0337928628900.4545211554379716251552100WETH
2025-10-27 04:00:04FORECAST20263611642.45834.21438.33601.6429142732.2629142733.916.172914273TT10.458157.45857324.0337928628900.5633827290980916351552112.5WETH
2025-10-27 00:00:02FORECAST20263611640.20832.37836.29300.366141931.146141934.745.88614193TF8.208154.20857324.0337928628900.465466977610731625145280WETM
2025-10-26 20:00:03FORECAST20263611640.20832.37836.29300.366141931.146141934.845.98614193TF8.208157.20857324.0337928628900.465466977610731625145280WETM
2025-10-26 16:00:03FORECAST20263611640.98235.76238.37200.2712599891.1312599894.545.671259989TF8.982156.98257324.0337928628900.499214176398981635145290WETM
2025-10-26 12:00:03FORECAST20263611640.58639.36239.97401.3669298723.4369298723.677.106929872TT8.586163.58657324.0337928628900.4819322264135416251552100WETH
2025-10-26 08:00:03FORECAST20263611640.58639.36239.97401.3669298723.4369298723.46.836929872TT8.586163.58657324.0337928628900.4819322264135416251552100WETH
2025-10-26 04:00:05FORECAST20263611647.69646.20246.94900.0744094890.4444094893.624.064409489TF15.696180.69657324.0337928628900.768157082093351645125250WETMH