MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 9, 2025

[ Wednesday, October 8, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, October 10, 2025 ]

DAY 9 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/10/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.82°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.29°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.657
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 402

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.57 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.58 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.49 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.50 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 85
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 351.68 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 89

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 75.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-10 04:00:03OBSERVATION202698954.7599239.8199247.2899200.570000000000050.580000000000051.872.45FF22.75992401.7599285351.67649212947 00.6572598740955516 34335275DRYVH
2025-10-10 00:00:01FORECAST202698948.12837.34642.73700.3429135710.3529135711.872.222913571FF16.128395.12885351.6764921294700.431860541797761624225240DRYM
2025-10-09 12:00:02FORECAST202698949.0137.50843.25900.3145670990.3245670991.872.194567099FF17.01396.0185351.6764921294700.462176877942551624225240DRYM
2025-10-09 08:00:01FORECAST202698949.9138.28244.09600.3732285480.3832285481.872.253228548FF17.91396.9185351.6764921294700.493338929278461624225240DRYM
2025-10-09 04:00:03FORECAST202698949.69437.79643.74500.3799214650.3899214651.872.259921465FF17.694396.69485351.6764921294700.485849128467421624225240DRYM
2025-10-09 00:00:01FORECAST202698949.5538.9344.2400.3566931060.3566931061.872.226693106FF17.55391.5585351.6764921294700.480858536682981624225240DRYM
2025-10-08 20:00:02FORECAST202698948.77638.80443.7900.476378210.476378211.872.34637821FF16.776389.77685351.6764921294700.454104909038291624225240DRYM
2025-10-08 16:00:02FORECAST202698949.15438.69643.92500.4429136250.4429136251.872.312913625FF17.154390.15485351.6764921294700.467152212574651624225240DRYM
2025-10-08 12:00:03FORECAST202698948.63238.10243.36700.4062994320.4062994321.872.276299432FF16.632389.63285351.6764921294700.449146733792451624225240DRYM
2025-10-08 08:00:02FORECAST202698948.75838.53443.64600.3893702890.3893702891.872.259370289FF16.758391.75885351.6764921294700.453484729713341624225240DRYM
2025-10-08 04:00:04FORECAST202698948.7438.67843.70900.2547245470.2547245471.872.124724547FF16.74391.7485351.6764921294700.452864663800911624225240DRYM
2025-10-08 00:00:02FORECAST202698948.77638.33643.55600.3090552850.3090552851.872.179055285FF16.776386.77685351.6764921294700.454104909038291624225240DRYM
2025-10-07 20:00:02FORECAST202698948.48837.65243.0700.2787403080.2787403081.872.148740308FF16.488385.48885351.6764921294700.444196486383281624225240DRYM
2025-10-07 16:00:02FORECAST202698947.76836.17641.97200.1503937820.1503937821.872.020393782FF15.768383.76885351.6764921294700.419590682045541624225240DRYM
2025-10-07 12:00:03FORECAST202698946.50834.73640.62200.0732283860.0732283861.871.943228386FF14.508381.50885351.6764921294700.377331816772071624215220DRYL
2025-10-07 08:00:02FORECAST202698945.8635.640.7300.0271653690.0271653691.871.897165369FF13.86382.8685351.6764921294700.356123823453411624215220DRYL
2025-10-07 04:00:03FORECAST202698945.03233.7139.37100.0185039470.0185039471.871.888503947FF13.032381.03285351.6764921294700.329666571816141624215220DRYL
2025-10-07 00:00:01FORECAST202698944.9633.3539.15500.1685040280.1685040281.872.038504028FF12.96377.9685351.6764921294700.327403400365971624225240DRYM
2025-10-06 20:00:02FORECAST202698946.56234.10640.33400.1169291970.1169291971.871.986929197FF14.562377.56285351.6764921294700.37911698866321624225240DRYM
2025-10-06 16:00:02FORECAST202698948.16434.6141.38700.0913386320.0913386321.871.961338632FF16.164379.16485351.6764921294700.43309135548991624225240DRYM
2025-10-06 12:00:01FORECAST202698947.98434.23241.10800.0322834820.0322834821.871.902283482FF15.984379.98485351.6764921294700.426944013883091624215220DRYL
2025-10-06 08:00:02FORECAST202698946.72433.9840.35200.0291338740.0291338741.871.899133874FF14.724381.72485351.6764921294700.384487846646041624215220DRYL
2025-10-06 04:00:02FORECAST202698947.333.04440.17200.031496080.031496081.871.90149608FF15.3380.385351.6764921294700.403757696453711624215220DRYL
2025-10-06 00:00:02FORECAST202698945.57234.64640.10900.3354332520.3354332521.872.205433252FF13.572379.57285351.6764921294700.346834562881441624225240DRYM
2025-10-05 20:00:02FORECAST202698946.1335.54640.83800.3303151390.3303151391.872.200315139FF14.13379.1385351.6764921294700.364910841294131624225240DRYM
2025-10-05 16:00:01FORECAST202698944.61835.92440.27100.3318899430.3318899431.872.201889943FF12.618377.61885351.6764921294700.316740854334821624225240DRYM
2025-10-05 12:00:02FORECAST202698948.05636.6842.3680001.871.87FF16.056378.05685351.6764921294700.429400909125021624215220DRYL
2025-10-05 08:00:02FORECAST202698952.73639.27246.0040001.871.87FF20.736388.73685351.6764921294700.590572591817231634215222.5DRYL
2025-10-05 04:00:03FORECAST202698955.70640.87448.290001.871.87FF23.706393.70685351.6764921294700.686962695241511634215222.5DRYL
2025-10-05 00:00:02FORECAST202698946.72434.8840.80200.0102362260.0202362261.451.470236226FF14.724382.72485351.6764921294700.384487846646041624215220DRYL
2025-10-04 20:00:02FORECAST202698943.4333.24238.33600.0102362260.0202362261.451.470236226FF11.43378.4385351.6764921294700.280912158140391624215220DRYL
2025-10-04 16:00:01FORECAST202698942.42230.63236.52700.0102362260.0202362261.451.470236226FF10.422376.42285351.6764921294700.252134004667191624215220DRYL
2025-10-04 12:00:02FORECAST202698945.98632.0939.03800.0507874290.2107874291.451.660787429FF13.986381.98685351.6764921294700.360215263119761624225240DRYM
2025-10-04 08:00:02FORECAST202698947.44435.18641.31500.0507874290.2107874291.451.660787429FF15.444379.44485351.6764921294700.408613895923361624225240DRYM
2025-10-04 04:00:03FORECAST202698947.85835.6941.77400.0507874290.2207874291.461.680787429FF15.858382.85885351.6764921294700.422651313984491624225240DRYM
2025-10-04 00:00:02FORECAST202698953.2439.48846.3640001.441.44FF21.24396.2485351.6764921294700.607511973049181634215222.5DRYL
2025-10-03 20:00:02FORECAST202698955.07639.247.1380001.441.44FF23.076402.07685351.6764921294700.667303577178521634315225DRYL
2025-10-03 16:00:02FORECAST202698954.98639.59647.2910001.51.5FF22.986400.98685351.6764921294700.664455560970281634315225DRYL
2025-10-03 12:00:02FORECAST202698949.76638.35444.0600.0751968910.2151968911.481.695196891FF17.766389.76685351.6764921294700.488345304706981624225240DRYM
2025-10-03 08:00:02FORECAST202698943.75433.15238.45300.0751968910.2151968911.481.695196891FF11.754382.75485351.6764921294700.290487840363461624225240DRYM
2025-10-03 04:00:03FORECAST202698944.49233.20638.84900.0740157880.2140157881.471.684015788FF12.492379.49285351.6764921294700.312849977160771624225240DRYM
2025-10-03 00:00:02FORECAST202698941.84632.03636.94100.1803150580.4803150581.481.960315058FF9.846374.84685351.6764921294700.236415175015861614225235DRYL
2025-10-02 20:00:02FORECAST202698943.71831.58637.65200.1803150580.4803150581.481.960315058FF11.718373.71885351.6764921294700.289416376044751624225240DRYM
2025-10-02 16:00:02FORECAST202698943.46631.08237.27400.2011812110.5011812111.441.941181211FF11.466373.46685351.6764921294700.281968557263811624235260DRYH
2025-10-02 12:00:02FORECAST202698940.49630.41635.45600.2511812380.5011812381.431.931181238FF8.496372.49685351.6764921294700.201775151726741614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-02 08:00:03FORECAST202698940.29829.42634.86200.2511812380.5011812381.441.941181238FF8.298372.29885351.6764921294700.19696272673951614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-02 04:00:04FORECAST202698940.06429.51634.7900.255905650.505905651.471.97590565FF8.064372.06485351.6764921294700.191365585929451614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-02 00:00:03FORECAST202698940.13629.91235.02400.5216538250.6516538251.62.251653825FF8.136374.13685351.6764921294700.193077333484541614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-01 20:00:04FORECAST202698940.13630.36235.24900.5216538250.6516538251.772.421653825FF8.136368.13685351.6764921294700.193077333484541614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-01 16:00:03FORECAST202698938.53428.43633.48500.5263782370.6563782371.772.426378237FF6.534367.53485351.6764921294700.157211012852161614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-01 12:00:02FORECAST202698944.04234.32239.18200.1196851040.1196851041.761.879685104FF12.042379.04285351.6764921294700.299125570159081624225240DRYM
2025-10-01 08:00:02FORECAST202698943.68234.17838.9300.1192914030.1192914031.942.059291403FF11.682377.68285351.6764921294700.288346769974711624225240DRYM
2025-10-01 04:00:04FORECAST202698941.28831.9136.59900.1244095160.1244095161.841.964409516FF9.288373.28885351.6764921294700.221715890782111614225235DRYL
2025-10-01 00:00:02FORECAST202698950.19837.4943.8440001.561.56FF18.198381.19885351.6764921294700.503328527794181634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-30 20:00:02FORECAST202698950.19837.4943.8440001.721.72FF18.198383.19885351.6764921294700.503328527794181634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-30 16:00:03FORECAST202698949.71237.16643.4390001.741.74FF17.712379.71285351.6764921294700.486473124373651624215220DRYL
2025-09-30 12:00:02FORECAST202698952.21438.82245.5180001.661.66FF20.214392.21485351.6764921294700.572848567397961634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-30 08:00:03FORECAST202698952.35838.82245.590001.51.5FF20.358388.35885351.6764921294700.57775426671141634215222.5DRYL
2025-09-30 04:00:05FORECAST202698949.78430.43440.1090001.391.39FF17.784389.78485351.6764921294700.48896942393281624215220DRYL
2025-09-30 00:00:03FORECAST202698939.25434.03436.6440001.51.5FF7.254374.25485351.6764921294700.172753300243361614215217.5DRYL
2025-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST202698938.94834.03436.4910002.12.1FF6.948369.94885351.6764921294700.166032196631991614215217.5DRYL
2025-09-29 16:00:02FORECAST202698939.23636.66237.9490002.252.25FF7.236368.23685351.6764921294700.172353216305531614215217.5DRYL
2025-09-29 12:00:03FORECAST202698942.47639.8341.1530002.932.93FF10.476370.47685351.6764921294700.253635356091281624215220DRYL
2025-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST202698942.47639.8341.1530002.732.73FF10.476363.47685351.6764921294700.253635356091281624215220DRYL
2025-09-29 04:00:05FORECAST202698940.60438.89439.7490002.662.66FF8.604350.60485351.6764921294700.204429468108091614215217.5DRYL