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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 30, 2025

[ Wednesday, October 29, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, October 31, 2025 ]

DAY 30 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/31/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.530
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 166

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.86 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.39 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 13 in
SWE DAY: 64
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 331.22 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 110

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-31 04:00:02OBSERVATION20263011042.0099832.6499837.329980000.390.39FF10.00998166.0099864331.2225989804 00.5302281490425216 35115222.5DRYL
2025-10-31 00:00:01FORECAST20263011039.229.28234.2410000.390.39FF7.2163.264331.222598980400.413791908613081625115220DRYL
2025-10-30 12:00:02FORECAST20263011039.61429.6634.6370000.390.39FF7.614163.61464331.222598980400.430721289348081625115220DRYL
2025-10-30 08:00:02FORECAST20263011041.930.4736.1850000.390.39FF9.9165.964331.222598980400.525654388406561635115222.5DRYL
2025-10-30 04:00:05FORECAST20263011041.95430.21836.0860000.390.39FF9.954165.95464331.222598980400.527900557598871635115222.5DRYL
2025-10-30 00:00:01FORECAST20263011041.66631.15436.41000.540.390.93FF9.666164.66664331.222598980400.515912477386791635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-29 20:00:01FORECAST20263011041.50430.52436.014000.540.390.93FF9.504163.50464331.222598980400.50916215765511635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-29 16:00:01FORECAST20263011041.79231.08236.437000.540.390.93FF9.792163.79264331.222598980400.52115967393631635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-29 12:00:02FORECAST20263011041.75631.7336.743000.540.390.93FF9.756163.75664331.222598980400.519660809224491635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-29 08:00:03FORECAST20263011041.28831.60436.446000.550.390.94FF9.288164.28864331.222598980400.500157982120381635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-29 04:00:03FORECAST20263011041.8131.02836.419000.530.390.92FF9.81164.8164331.222598980400.521908995420111635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-29 00:00:02FORECAST20263011042.00831.136.554001.160.391.55FF10.008161.00864331.222598980400.530145839803871635145290DRYVH
2025-10-28 20:00:03FORECAST20263011042.3531.04636.698000.890.391.28FF10.35163.3564331.222598980400.54434078373421635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-28 16:00:01FORECAST20263011042.38631.11836.752001.060.391.45FF10.386165.38664331.222598980400.545832018450481635145290DRYVH
2025-10-28 12:00:02FORECAST20263011043.2532.55837.904000.980.391.37FF11.25165.2564331.222598980400.581380481067971635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-28 08:00:02FORECAST20263011042.99833.22438.111000.830.391.22FF10.998165.99864331.222598980400.571067326318121635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-28 04:00:04FORECAST20263011043.5233.22438.372000.860.391.25FF11.52165.5264331.222598980400.59236837932731635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-28 00:00:02FORECAST20263011042.833.02637.913000.80.581.38FF10.8160.864331.222598980400.562929588348651635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-27 20:00:02FORECAST20263011041.86432.3637.112000.780.671.45FF9.864160.86464331.222598980400.524156484664561635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-27 16:00:02FORECAST20263011041.9932.12637.058000.750.671.42FF9.99159.9964331.222598980400.529397515347941635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-27 12:00:01FORECAST20263011042.85432.50437.679000.640.671.31FF10.854160.85464331.222598980400.565151763518991635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-27 08:00:02FORECAST20263011043.68232.39638.039000.630.681.31FF11.682164.68264331.222598980400.598926998840831635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-27 04:00:04FORECAST20263011043.8832.68438.282000.710.621.33FF11.88163.8864331.222598980400.606905221113291635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-27 00:00:01FORECAST20263011042.9831.85637.418000.612.192.8FF10.98157.9864331.222598980400.570328724971341635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-26 20:00:02FORECAST20263011043.0731.15437.112000.612.292.9FF11.07161.0764331.222598980400.574019219012451635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-26 16:00:02FORECAST20263011043.68231.24437.463000.662.22.86FF11.682161.68264331.222598980400.598926998840831635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-26 12:00:02FORECAST20263011045.06831.87438.471000.422.262.68FF13.068163.06864331.222598980400.653729934516911635125245DRYM
2025-10-26 08:00:02FORECAST20263011045.19432.05438.624000.362.052.41FF13.194166.19464331.222598980400.658575189913541635125245DRYM
2025-10-26 04:00:04FORECAST20263011044.76231.83838.3000.432.022.45FF12.762166.76264331.222598980400.641859068446951635125245DRYM
2025-10-26 00:00:02FORECAST20263011043.64631.62237.634000.53.063.56TF11.646163.64664331.222598980400.597471864539911635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-25 20:00:03FORECAST20263011042.69231.60437.148000.593.474.06TF10.692163.69264331.222598980400.558479346063481635135267.5WETM
2025-10-25 16:00:02FORECAST20263011043.0731.7337.4000.753.464.21TF11.07163.0764331.222598980400.574019219012451635135267.5WETM
2025-10-25 12:00:02FORECAST20263011042.67431.0136.842000.753.474.22TF10.674163.67464331.222598980400.557736905126361635135267.5WETM
2025-10-25 08:00:04FORECAST20263011042.56631.76637.166000.813.684.49TF10.566162.56664331.222598980400.553278090044961635135267.5WETM
2025-10-25 04:00:05FORECAST20263011042.20631.26236.734000.573.263.83TF10.206165.20664331.222598980400.538369804327891635135267.5DRYH
2025-10-25 00:00:02FORECAST20263011040.31627.5933.953000.625.225.84TF8.316148.31664331.222598980400.45970432997321625135260WETM
2025-10-24 20:00:03FORECAST20263011041.61230.07435.843000.625.696.31TF9.612150.61264331.222598980400.513662781849331635135267.5WETM
2025-10-24 16:00:02FORECAST20263011041.41428.95835.186000.675.76.37TF9.414151.41464331.222598980400.505410721874211635135267.5WETM
2025-10-24 12:00:02FORECAST20263011040.2831.83836.059000.955.766.71TT8.28146.2864331.222598980400.458211449749021625135260WETH
2025-10-24 08:00:02FORECAST20263011039.43429.1234.277000.955.436.38TT7.434146.43464331.222598980400.42334311941261625135260WETH
2025-10-24 04:00:05FORECAST20263011039.79429.94834.871001.135.186.31TT7.794145.79464331.222598980400.438123718696711625145280WETH
2025-10-24 00:00:02FORECAST20263011039.2928.6733.9800.1515748851.6315748854.616.241574885TT7.29147.2964331.222598980400.4174597452620716251552100WETH
2025-10-23 20:00:02FORECAST20263011039.2929.60634.44800.1515748851.6315748854.576.201574885TT7.29152.2964331.222598980400.4174597452620716251552100WETH
2025-10-23 16:00:02FORECAST20263011038.96630.07434.5200.03937011.61937014.626.2393701TT6.966148.96664331.222598980400.4042914201295916251552100WETH
2025-10-23 12:00:02FORECAST20263011039.18229.3934.28600.2185040551.6585040555.036.688504055TT7.182146.18264331.222598980400.4130592319219716251552100WETH
2025-10-23 08:00:03FORECAST20263011036.66227.15831.9100.2137796431.6737796434.986.653779643TT4.662139.66264331.222598980400.3145376194041716251552100WETL
2025-10-23 04:00:04FORECAST20263011035.56427.57231.56800.2153544471.6753544474.956.625354447TT3.564141.56464331.222598980400.2749935222774516251552100WETL
2025-10-23 00:00:03FORECAST20263011035.90629.3932.648000.944.45.34TF3.906139.90664331.222598980400.287045499189831625135260WETM
2025-10-22 20:00:04FORECAST20263011036.26630.12833.197000.944.585.52TF4.266144.26664331.222598980400.299995468334351625135260WETM
2025-10-22 16:00:04FORECAST20263011034.6129.69632.15300.2909450391.2109450394.836.040945039TF2.61140.6164331.222598980400.242748547623181615145270WETM
2025-10-22 12:00:03FORECAST20263011033.827.60830.70400.2236221681.7836221684.76.483622168TT1.8139.864331.222598980400.217061579911991615155287.5WETL
2025-10-22 08:00:03FORECAST20263011033.827.60830.70400.2236221681.7836221684.476.253622168TT1.8138.864331.222598980400.217061579911991615155287.5WETL
2025-10-22 04:00:05FORECAST20263011036.1427.91432.02700.0110236281.2310236284.445.671023628TF4.14140.1464331.222598980400.295432978339871625145280WETM
2025-10-22 00:00:03FORECAST20263011033.27827.55430.41600.0122047310.9422047314.695.632204731TF1.278126.27864331.222598980400.201373827453671615135252.5WETL
2025-10-21 20:00:03FORECAST20263011033.27827.55430.41600.0122047310.9422047314.615.552204731TF1.278122.27864331.222598980400.201373827453671615135252.5WETL
2025-10-21 16:00:03FORECAST20263011032.75629.40831.08200.1484252770.9084252774.545.448425277TF0.756120.75664331.222598980400.186384699589041615135252.5WETL
2025-10-21 12:00:03FORECAST20263011035.16827.10431.13600.4468506351.1368506354.665.796850635TF3.168132.16864331.222598980400.261357109650031625145280WETL
2025-10-21 08:00:03FORECAST20263011035.16827.10431.13600.4468506351.1368506354.615.746850635TF3.168131.16864331.222598980400.261357109650031625145280WETL
2025-10-21 04:00:05FORECAST20263011035.90629.69632.80100.2633859690.7633859694.375.133385969TF3.906129.90664331.222598980400.287045499189831625135260WETM
2025-10-21 00:00:02FORECAST20263011036.87835.47436.17600.1866142740.2966142743.884.176614274TF4.878127.87864331.222598980400.322594578790341625125240WETM
2025-10-20 20:00:03FORECAST20263011035.2422.02828.63400.1866142740.2966142743.754.046614274TF3.24124.2464331.222598980400.263810416852881625125240WETL
2025-10-20 16:00:03FORECAST20263011053.65445.51849.58600.1322835360.1322835364.144.272283536TF21.654166.65464331.222598980400.902023764365161655125255WETMH
2025-10-20 12:00:03FORECAST20263011055.97649.71252.844000.24.324.52TF23.976175.97664331.222598980400.937778069095571655125255WETMH
2025-10-20 08:00:02FORECAST20263011055.97649.71252.844000.24.324.52TF23.976175.97664331.222598980400.937778069095571655125255WETMH
2025-10-20 04:00:04FORECAST20263011055.95854.1455.049000.24.324.52TF23.958183.95864331.222598980400.937546527243021655125255WETMH