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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 25, 2025

[ Friday, October 24, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, October 26, 2025 ]

DAY 25 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/26/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.32°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.32°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.126
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 208

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.96 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 2 in
SWE DAY: 69
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 336.24 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 105

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-26 04:00:03OBSERVATION20262510533.3199427.3230.319970002.22.2FF1.31994208.3199469336.24163774302 00.1257190712821216 15215220DRYL
2025-10-26 00:00:01FORECAST20262510531.29825.77228.53501.2940951871.2940951872.23.494095187TF-0.702206.29869336.2416377430200.0897070569631661615245280DRYVH
2025-10-25 12:00:02FORECAST20262510531.51425.728.60701.6311032431.6311032432.23.831103243TF-0.486206.51469336.2416377430200.09314276951949816152552100DRYVH
2025-10-25 08:00:01FORECAST20262510531.15426.6928.92201.9220482821.9220482822.24.122048282TF-0.846206.15469336.2416377430200.08746932788102516152552100WETL
2025-10-25 04:00:04FORECAST20262510532.46826.18629.32701.4708669361.4708669362.23.670866936TF0.468207.46869336.2416377430200.109479381644221615245280DRYVH
2025-10-25 00:00:01FORECAST20262510531.4626.20428.83201.4811031623.3511031622.25.551103162TT-0.54200.4669336.2416377430200.092274889334316152552100WETL
2025-10-24 20:00:01FORECAST20262510531.3726.40228.88601.3881897263.8881897262.26.088189726TT-0.63199.3769336.2416377430200.09084170229122516152552100WETL
2025-10-24 16:00:02FORECAST20262510531.33426.07828.70601.3669298723.8669298722.26.066929872TT-0.666199.33469336.2416377430200.09027306004234216152552100WETL
2025-10-24 12:00:01FORECAST20262510530.93827.12229.0301.5468512294.0468512292.26.246851229TT-1.062198.93869336.2416377430200.0841909750905641615155287.5WETL
2025-10-24 08:00:01FORECAST20262510532.03626.76229.39901.6007882663.7507882662.25.950788266TT0.036000000000001201.03669336.2416377430200.1018440094677716152552100WETL
2025-10-24 04:00:04FORECAST20262510532.0927.17629.63301.5657488773.4957488772.25.695748877TT0.090000000000003200.0969336.2416377430200.102776726957216152552100WETL
2025-10-24 00:00:02FORECAST20262510532.52227.44629.98401.5748043.0348042.25.234804TT0.522200.52269336.2416377430200.1104618799115216152552100WETL
2025-10-23 20:00:02FORECAST20262510533.42227.98630.70401.7413395233.2013395232.25.401339523TT1.422201.42269336.2416377430200.1277714380470316152552100WETL
2025-10-23 16:00:01FORECAST20262510533.2628.2230.7401.7614182743.1614182742.25.361418274TT1.26201.2669336.2416377430200.1245244568923216152552100WETL
2025-10-23 12:00:01FORECAST20262510533.0828.0430.5601.4952763983.1952763982.25.395276398TT1.08201.0869336.2416377430200.1209846660619316152552100WETL
2025-10-23 08:00:02FORECAST20262510531.38827.82429.60601.4228354143.1628354142.25.362835414TT-0.612200.38869336.2416377430200.09112701477959616152552100WETL
2025-10-23 04:00:04FORECAST20262510531.96427.75229.85801.4830716673.2430716672.25.443071667TT-0.036000000000001201.96469336.2416377430200.1006099601902216152552100WETL
2025-10-23 00:00:02FORECAST20262510531.87428.2230.04701.3476385233.0276385232.25.227638523TT-0.126198.87469336.2416377430200.0990827335760431615155287.5WETL
2025-10-22 20:00:03FORECAST20262510531.98228.20230.09201.4637803183.2737803182.25.473780318TT-0.018000000000001194.98269336.2416377430200.100917448435711615155287.5WETL
2025-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20262510532.0927.10429.59701.5881898343.4681898342.25.668189834TT0.090000000000003195.0969336.2416377430200.10277672695721615155287.5WETL
2025-10-22 12:00:02FORECAST20262510532.93627.51830.22701.381890513.381890512.25.58189051TT0.936195.93669336.2416377430200.118204107099411615155287.5WETL
2025-10-22 08:00:02FORECAST20262510534.10626.65430.3801.3023629083.1423629082.215.352362908TT2.106199.10669336.2416377430200.142125002560216152552100WETL
2025-10-22 04:00:04FORECAST20262510532.66626.629.63301.3696857793.1396857792.25.339685779TT0.666197.66669336.2416377430200.113112637686291615155287.5WETL
2025-10-22 00:00:02FORECAST20262510532.10826.1529.12901.5377961063.1477961062.25.347796106TT0.108188.10869336.2416377430200.103089003531761615155287.5WETL
2025-10-21 20:00:03FORECAST20262510530.39824.90827.65301.5633866713.0733866712.25.273386671TT-1.602185.39869336.2416377430200.0763982908804571615155287.5WETL
2025-10-21 16:00:02FORECAST20262510530.41624.69227.55401.5311031892.9711031892.25.171103189TF-1.584184.41669336.2416377430200.076648914956361615155287.5WETL
2025-10-21 12:00:02FORECAST20262510530.54223.2726.90601.2877959712.7477959712.224.967795971TF-1.458183.54269336.2416377430200.0784207611033821615155287.5WETL
2025-10-21 08:00:02FORECAST20262510530.70424.81827.76101.2877959712.7177959712.24.917795971TF-1.296185.70469336.2416377430200.0807441054132331615155287.5WETL
2025-10-21 04:00:04FORECAST20262510531.15423.9927.57201.3342526892.7442526892.24.944252689TF-0.846184.15469336.2416377430200.0874693278810251615155287.5WETL
2025-10-21 00:00:02FORECAST20262510529.94826.25828.10301.0248037032.6848037032.325.004803703TF-2.052184.94869336.2416377430200.0703327350755021615155287.5WETL
2025-10-20 20:00:02FORECAST20262510529.6625.12427.39201.0248037032.5948037032.284.874803703TF-2.34180.6669336.2416377430200.0666489564300831615155287.5WETL
2025-10-20 16:00:02FORECAST20262510532.39627.82430.1101.1129927272.8029927272.295.092992727TF0.396190.39669336.2416377430200.108179137717891615155287.5WETL
2025-10-20 12:00:02FORECAST20262510530.41627.89629.15601.2141738842.7841738842.275.054173884TF-1.584189.41669336.2416377430200.076648914956361615155287.5WETL
2025-10-20 08:00:02FORECAST20262510530.41627.89629.15601.2141738842.7841738842.275.054173884TF-1.584189.41669336.2416377430200.076648914956361615155287.5WETL
2025-10-20 04:00:03FORECAST20262510531.31628.47229.89401.2141738842.7841738842.275.054173884TF-0.684193.31669336.2416377430200.0899897289428051615155287.5WETL
2025-10-20 00:00:02FORECAST20262510531.26225.03428.14800.9897643142.6497643144.677.319764314TT-0.738189.26269336.2416377430200.0891436876590871615155287.5WETL
2025-10-19 20:00:03FORECAST2026251053227.28429.64200.9897643142.6497643144.867.509764314TT018869336.2416377430200.101225619013371615155287.5WETL
2025-10-19 16:00:03FORECAST20262510531.65826.74429.20100.7523626112.3523626114.837.182362611TT-0.342186.65869336.2416377430200.095486484857311615155287.5WETL
2025-10-19 12:00:03FORECAST20262510532.16227.30229.73200.7818901862.7218901864.867.581890186TT0.162188.16269336.2416377430200.104029953318251615155287.5WETL
2025-10-19 08:00:03FORECAST20262510532.34227.62629.98400.7818901862.7218901864.947.661890186TT0.342190.34269336.2416377430200.107211252466741615155287.5WETL
2025-10-19 04:00:05FORECAST20262510531.89228.56230.22700.8437012432.6637012434.847.503701243TT-0.108190.89269336.2416377430200.099386818904361615155287.5WETL
2025-10-19 00:00:02FORECAST20262510533.7129.6631.68501.566929982.776929985.638.40692998TT1.71192.7169336.2416377430200.133687699547981615155287.5WETL
2025-10-18 20:00:03FORECAST20262510533.81829.28231.5501.566929982.776929985.217.98692998TT1.818194.81869336.2416377430200.135953965740411615155287.5WETL
2025-10-18 16:00:02FORECAST20262510534.39429.6063201.4358275472.6158275474.937.545827547TT2.394195.39469336.2416377430200.148482347644141615155287.5WETL
2025-10-18 12:00:02FORECAST20262510535.4230.0232.7201.3098432273.7298432274.698.419843227TT3.42191.4269336.2416377430200.172650246520871615155287.5WETH
2025-10-18 08:00:02FORECAST20262510534.28630.00232.14401.3098432273.7298432274.618.339843227TT2.286188.28669336.2416377430200.146076468869971615155287.5WETH
2025-10-18 04:00:04FORECAST20262510534.6129.80432.20701.2688983233.9488983234.448.388898323TT2.61186.6169336.2416377430200.153372967584381615155287.5WETH
2025-10-18 00:00:02FORECAST20262510536.96829.7533.35900.8051185455.4151185454.8510.265118545TT4.968183.96869336.2416377430200.213573274422771615155287.5WETH
2025-10-17 20:00:03FORECAST20262510534.86228.34631.60400.8035437415.4035437414.7410.143543741TT2.862177.86269336.2416377430200.159211723341151615155287.5WETL
2025-10-17 16:00:04FORECAST20262510535.38426.90631.14500.2818899164.9418899164.689.621889916TT3.384177.38469336.2416377430200.171762071896931615155287.5WETL
2025-10-17 12:00:02FORECAST20262510534.86228.18431.52300.7641736414.0141736414.178.184173641TT2.862180.86269336.2416377430200.159211723341151615155287.5WETL
2025-10-17 08:00:02FORECAST20262510534.14227.39230.76700.7641736414.0141736414.168.174173641TT2.142182.14269336.2416377430200.14290946791261615155287.5WETL
2025-10-17 04:00:04FORECAST20262510534.98829.1232.05400.952756424.082756424.028.10275642TT2.988178.98869336.2416377430200.162184848072381615155287.5WETH
2025-10-17 00:00:03FORECAST20262510533.60226.74430.17300.4535435522.6935435524.236.923543552TT1.602174.60269336.2416377430200.131447466747281615155287.5WETL
2025-10-16 20:00:02FORECAST20262510533.60226.74430.17300.4535435522.6935435524.226.913543552TT1.602175.60269336.2416377430200.131447466747281615155287.5WETL
2025-10-16 16:00:02FORECAST20262510533.36826.09629.73200.4145671532.9945671534.197.184567153TT1.368171.36869336.2416377430200.126682655555111615155287.5WETL
2025-10-16 12:00:03FORECAST20262510542.33230.09236.21200.1511811840.6011811843.914.511181184TF10.332199.33269336.2416377430200.391397241492441625235267.5WETM
2025-10-16 08:00:02FORECAST20262510542.36832.66637.51700.1511811840.6011811843.884.481181184TF10.368206.36869336.2416377430200.392734003597041625235267.5WETM
2025-10-16 04:00:04FORECAST20262510539.4730.93835.20400.2157481481.2057481483.895.095748148TF7.47205.4769336.2416377430200.290385841488281625245290WETM
2025-10-16 00:00:02FORECAST20262510536.75234.4335.59100.0803150040.3403150043.764.100315004TF4.752197.75269336.2416377430200.20754636320491615125235WETM
2025-10-15 20:00:02FORECAST20262510536.60834.73635.67200.0803150040.3403150043.84.140315004TF4.608194.60869336.2416377430200.203584751839031615125235WETM
2025-10-15 16:00:03FORECAST20262510534.62826.3330.47900.0082677210.5082677213.874.378267721TF2.628192.62869336.2416377430200.153785269022871615135252.5WETL
2025-10-15 12:00:03FORECAST20262510541.70238.69640.199000.973.914.88TF9.702189.70269336.2416377430200.368224381571421625135260WETMH
2025-10-15 08:00:03FORECAST20262510541.70238.69640.199000.973.94.87TF9.702183.70269336.2416377430200.368224381571421625135260WETMH
2025-10-15 04:00:08FORECAST20262510536.39235.38435.88800.3677167341.7377167344.175.907716734TT4.392174.39269336.2416377430200.197727449970081615155287.5WETH