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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 24, 2025

[ Thursday, October 23, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, October 25, 2025 ]

DAY 24 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/25/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.94°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.495
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 236

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.92 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.92 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.38 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.96 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 70
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 337.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 104

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-25 04:00:03OBSERVATION20262410445.3500630.5299437.940002.22.2FF13.35006236.3500670337.2340527369 00.4952381537382816 25215222.5DRYL
2025-10-25 00:00:01FORECAST20262410439.23628.95834.09701.8696860491.8696860492.24.069686049TF7.236230.23670337.234052736900.2743496901005416252552112.5WETM
2025-10-24 12:00:01FORECAST20262410437.97629.333.63802.4956706392.4956706392.24.695670639TF5.976228.97670337.234052736900.2354986436046316152552100WETM
2025-10-24 08:00:01FORECAST20262410438.51629.15633.83602.1472452542.1472452542.24.347245254TF6.516229.51670337.234052736900.2517683344717216252552112.5WETM
2025-10-24 04:00:04FORECAST20262410438.10231.78434.94301.9295286011.9295286012.24.129528601TF6.102229.10270337.234052736900.2392423078459716152552100WETM
2025-10-24 00:00:01FORECAST20262410440.04632.0936.06801.4555125971.4555125972.23.655512597TF8.046229.04670337.234052736900.30089226793291625245290DRYVH
2025-10-23 20:00:02FORECAST20262410440.4632.3636.4101.45669371.45669372.23.6566937TF8.46229.4670337.234052736900.314890598303581625245290DRYVH
2025-10-23 16:00:01FORECAST20262410440.131.26235.68101.3996070551.3996070552.23.599607055TF8.1229.170337.234052736900.302702177650221625245290DRYVH
2025-10-23 12:00:01FORECAST20262410440.4630.6535.55501.6980324131.6980324132.23.898032413TF8.46229.4670337.234052736900.3148905983035816252552112.5DRYVH
2025-10-23 08:00:02FORECAST20262410440.06431.06435.56401.7444891311.7444891312.23.944489131TF8.064230.06470337.234052736900.3014950293684716252552112.5DRYVH
2025-10-23 04:00:03FORECAST20262410440.53230.77635.65401.7563001611.7563001612.23.956300161TF8.532230.53270337.234052736900.3173532267552816252552112.5DRYVH
2025-10-23 00:00:02FORECAST20262410440.60431.5536.07701.6842528781.6842528782.23.884252878TF8.604227.60470337.234052736900.3198239607605816252552112.5DRYVH
2025-10-22 20:00:03FORECAST20262410439.8331.6435.73501.807087591.807087592.24.00708759TF7.83223.8370337.234052736900.2937018986147816252552112.5WETM
2025-10-22 16:00:03FORECAST20262410440.2831.96436.12201.8826781821.8826781822.24.082678182TF8.28224.2870337.234052736900.3087700819037816252552112.5WETM
2025-10-22 12:00:02FORECAST20262410440.2833.20636.74301.996064071.996064072.24.19606407TF8.28224.2870337.234052736900.3087700819037816252552112.5WETM
2025-10-22 08:00:02FORECAST20262410440.15433.3536.75201.8429143811.8529143812.24.052914381TF8.154226.15470337.234052736900.3045169437901116252552112.5WETM
2025-10-22 04:00:04FORECAST20262410440.26233.02636.64401.7657489851.7657489852.23.965748985TF8.262226.26270337.234052736900.3081609014004616252552112.5DRYVH
2025-10-22 00:00:02FORECAST20262410439.12832.57635.85201.6082685851.6082685852.23.808268585TF7.128217.12870337.234052736900.2708998547299516252552112.5DRYVH
2025-10-21 20:00:02FORECAST20262410438.55230.68634.61901.5051189231.5051189232.23.705118923TF6.552215.55270337.234052736900.2528736624752116252552112.5DRYVH
2025-10-21 16:00:02FORECAST20262410438.53430.43434.48401.4350401451.4350401452.23.635040145TF6.534214.53470337.234052736900.252320679851561625245290DRYVH
2025-10-21 12:00:02FORECAST20262410438.35431.1934.77201.4614181121.4814181122.23.681418112TF6.354214.35470337.234052736900.246826051035741615245280DRYVH
2025-10-21 08:00:02FORECAST20262410438.71431.47835.09601.4125991881.4325991882.23.632599188TF6.714215.71470337.234052736900.257879029033081625245290DRYVH
2025-10-21 04:00:04FORECAST20262410438.37230.68634.52901.3913393341.4113393342.23.611339334TF6.372214.37270337.234052736900.247372620728211615245280DRYVH
2025-10-21 00:00:02FORECAST20262410438.4829.76834.12401.6563001071.7163001072.263.976300107TF6.48216.4870337.234052736900.2506655590916252552112.5DRYVH
2025-10-20 20:00:02FORECAST20262410436.24829.67832.96301.5736228971.5936228972.263.853622897TF4.248212.24870337.234052736900.1875307812088416152552100DRYVH
2025-10-20 16:00:02FORECAST20262410438.71433.09835.90601.69291431.72291432.263.9829143TF6.714218.71470337.234052736900.2578790290330816252552112.5DRYVH
2025-10-20 12:00:02FORECAST20262410439.36230.99235.17701.5744102991.5844102992.263.844410299TF7.362220.36270337.234052736900.2784016839089616252552112.5DRYVH
2025-10-20 08:00:02FORECAST20262410439.36230.99235.17701.5744102991.5844102992.263.844410299TF7.362220.36270337.234052736900.2784016839089616252552112.5DRYVH
2025-10-20 04:00:03FORECAST20262410440.69431.38836.04101.5744102991.5844102992.263.844410299TF8.694222.69470337.234052736900.3229236366868516252552112.5DRYVH
2025-10-20 00:00:02FORECAST20262410440.51431.44235.97801.5964575551.7464575554.586.326457555TT8.514218.51470337.234052736900.3167368061828516252552112.5WETH
2025-10-19 20:00:03FORECAST20262410439.27231.22635.24901.5964575551.7764575554.746.516457555TT7.272217.27270337.234052736900.2755044299077416252552112.5WETH
2025-10-19 16:00:03FORECAST20262410439.383235.6901.5437016211.6937016214.746.433701621TT7.38216.3870337.234052736900.2789829093532116252552112.5WETH
2025-10-19 12:00:02FORECAST20262410439.70431.2835.49201.9314971062.0414971064.766.801497106TT7.704216.70470337.234052736900.2895445445556216252552112.5WETH
2025-10-19 08:00:03FORECAST20262410440.92831.38836.15801.9314971062.0314971064.856.881497106TT8.928218.92870337.234052736900.3310400825449416252552112.5WETH
2025-10-19 04:00:05FORECAST20262410440.9131.29836.10401.8161427131.9661427134.696.656142713TT8.91219.9170337.234052736900.3304128531655816252552112.5WETH
2025-10-19 00:00:02FORECAST20262410440.53230.81235.67201.1267722621.3467722625.496.836772262TT8.532219.53270337.234052736900.317353226755281625245290WETH
2025-10-18 20:00:02FORECAST20262410440.35230.95635.65401.1267722621.3467722625.076.416772262TT8.352222.35270337.234052736900.311212051779881625245290WETH
2025-10-18 16:00:02FORECAST20262410439.79430.59635.19501.1043313051.3243313054.796.114331305TT7.794221.79470337.234052736900.292511269729051625245290WETH
2025-10-18 12:00:02FORECAST20262410440.94633.29637.12101.6937017022.6037017024.517.113701702TT8.946216.94670337.234052736900.3316677861374216252552112.5WETH
2025-10-18 08:00:02FORECAST20262410439.14631.4635.30301.6937017022.6037017024.437.033701702TT7.146215.14670337.234052736900.2714733225829516252552112.5WETH
2025-10-18 04:00:04FORECAST20262410439.45231.40635.42901.7594497692.8594497694.267.119449769TT7.452213.45270337.234052736900.2813136887168216252552112.5WETH
2025-10-18 00:00:02FORECAST20262410441.37833.837.58902.1145680715.4345680714.039.464568071TT9.378208.37870337.234052736900.3468709277499416252552112.5WETH
2025-10-17 20:00:02FORECAST20262410440.35231.92836.1402.1137806695.4137806693.939.343780669TT8.352204.35270337.234052736900.3112120517798816252552112.5WETH
2025-10-17 16:00:04FORECAST20262410439.59630.72235.15901.9275600965.3875600963.959.337560096TT7.596202.59670337.234052736900.2860032190280216252552112.5WETH
2025-10-17 12:00:02FORECAST20262410439.235.47437.33701.059055693.359055694.067.41905569TT7.2207.270337.234052736900.2731973417921116252552112.5WETH
2025-10-17 08:00:02FORECAST20262410439.2934.736.99501.059055693.359055694.057.40905569TT7.29209.2970337.234052736900.2760826938578416252552112.5WETH
2025-10-17 04:00:04FORECAST20262410438.46234.736.58100.9889769123.2389769123.917.148976912TT6.462205.46270337.234052736900.2501151308991816252552112.5WETH
2025-10-17 00:00:02FORECAST20262410438.8433.33236.08600.7472444982.7072444983.766.467244498TT6.84201.8470337.234052736900.2618072858950916252552112.5WETH
2025-10-16 20:00:02FORECAST20262410438.8433.33236.08600.7472444982.7072444983.756.457244498TT6.84202.8470337.234052736900.2618072858950916252552112.5WETH
2025-10-16 16:00:02FORECAST20262410438.1234.17836.14900.9854336033.0454336033.726.765433603TT6.12199.1270337.234052736900.239779754552916152552100WETH
2025-10-16 12:00:03FORECAST20262410444.97835.63640.30700.0653543660.4453543663.914.355354366TF12.978217.97870337.234052736900.480976268434081625225245WETMH
2025-10-16 08:00:02FORECAST20262410446.88639.27243.07900.0653543660.4453543663.884.325354366TF14.886224.88670337.234052736900.553977597669561635225250WETMH
2025-10-16 04:00:04FORECAST20262410447.08439.70443.39400.6232286831.0332286833.854.883228683TF15.084227.08470337.234052736900.5614913841066416352452100WETMH
2025-10-16 00:00:02FORECAST20262410446.18437.70641.94500.2614174640.2614174643.764.021417464TF14.184222.18470337.234052736900.527199623593711635225250WETMH
2025-10-15 20:00:02FORECAST20262410446.0437.50841.77400.2614174640.2614174643.84.061417464TF14.04219.0470337.234052736900.521687448989461635225250WETMH
2025-10-15 16:00:03FORECAST20262410444.11435.5139.81200.4468506350.5068506353.864.366850635TF12.114219.11470337.234052736900.447981802648521625235267.5WETM
2025-10-15 12:00:02FORECAST20262410443.35836.03239.69500.5948822111.0548822113.834.884882211TF11.358209.35870337.234052736900.419396279244591625245290WETM
2025-10-15 08:00:03FORECAST20262410443.35836.03239.69500.5948822111.0548822113.824.874882211TF11.358203.35870337.234052736900.419396279244591625245290WETM
2025-10-15 04:00:08FORECAST20262410441.50434.17837.84100.59055151.58055153.965.5405515TF9.504198.50470337.234052736900.3513533584231116251552100WETM
2025-10-15 00:00:03FORECAST20262410442.90834.91638.91200.1500000811.9000000813.765.660000081TF10.908192.90870337.234052736900.4025710148725616251552100WETM
2025-10-14 20:00:03FORECAST20262410442.90834.91638.91200.1500000811.9000000813.785.680000081TF10.908192.90870337.234052736900.4025710148725616251552100WETM
2025-10-14 16:00:02FORECAST20262410434.91630.8332.87300.145669371.875669373.775.64566937TF2.916186.91670337.234052736900.155014352522581615155287.5WETM
2025-10-14 12:00:03FORECAST20262410443.19642.2642.72800.5267719381.0067719383.744.746771938TF11.196203.19670337.234052736900.413320477518481625245290WETMH
2025-10-14 08:00:02FORECAST20262410443.19642.2642.72800.5267719381.0067719383.734.736771938TF11.196204.19670337.234052736900.413320477518481625245290WETMH
2025-10-14 04:00:06FORECAST20262410434.732.91833.809000.533.644.17TF2.7201.770337.234052736900.150114262478411615235260WETM