Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 23, 2025

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DAY 23 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/24/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.08°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.87°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.97°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.530 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 14 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 249 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.04 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 71 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.22 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 103 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 5 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-24 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2026	23	103	46.07996	35.87	40.97498	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	14.07996	249.07996	71	338.22270370998	0	0.52973922556016	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-24 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	23	103	44.222	33.944	39.083	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	12.222	247.222	71	338.22270370998	0	0.46275484749482	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-23 12:00:01	FORECAST	2026	23	103	44.042	33.926	38.984	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	12.042	247.042	71	338.22270370998	0	0.45629098376563	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-23 08:00:01	FORECAST	2026	23	103	44.924	33.746	39.335	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	12.924	247.924	71	338.22270370998	0	0.48804225949849	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	23	103	44.726	33.764	39.245	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	12.726	247.726	71	338.22270370998	0	0.48090062151573	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	45.356	34.25	39.803	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	13.356	245.356	71	338.22270370998	0	0.50363419731953	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	46.076	34.502	40.289	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	14.076	242.076	71	338.22270370998	0	0.52959667802804	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	45.824	33.926	39.875	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	13.824	241.824	71	338.22270370998	0	0.52051845385449	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	45.536	34.394	39.965	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	13.536	241.536	71	338.22270370998	0	0.51013056656652	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-22 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	45.896	34.412	40.154	0	0	0.01	2.2	2.21	F	F	13.896	243.896	71	338.22270370998	0	0.5231135255103	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	23	103	45.716	34.484	40.1	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	13.716	243.716	71	338.22270370998	0	0.51662424941512	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-22 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	45.014	34.376	39.695	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	13.014	236.014	71	338.22270370998	0	0.49128986453146	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	43.106	32.918	38.012	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	11.106	235.106	71	338.22270370998	0	0.42290289376363	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	43.25	32.594	37.922	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	11.25	234.25	71	338.22270370998	0	0.42800978083255	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-21 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.962	32.324	37.643	0	0	0.02	2.2	2.22	F	F	10.962	233.962	71	338.22270370998	0	0.41780892830824	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-21 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.656	31.874	37.265	0	0.017716545	0.017716545	2.2	2.217716545	F	F	10.656	234.656	71	338.22270370998	0	0.407030933178	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.62	31.874	37.247	0	0.016535442	0.016535442	2.2	2.216535442	F	F	10.62	233.62	71	338.22270370998	0	0.40576738139652	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-21 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	23	103	41.72	31.91	36.815	0	0	0.06	2.26	2.32	F	F	9.72	235.72	71	338.22270370998	0	0.37452965929674	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	40.82	30.938	35.879	0	0	0.02	2.26	2.28	F	F	8.82	233.82	71	338.22270370998	0	0.34409439595998	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	43.142	33.008	38.075	0	0	0.03	2.26	2.29	F	F	11.142	238.142	71	338.22270370998	0	0.42417843667519	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-20 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	43.61	34.16	38.885	0	0	0.01	2.26	2.27	F	F	11.61	238.61	71	338.22270370998	0	0.44082802967287	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	43.61	34.16	38.885	0	0	0.01	2.26	2.27	F	F	11.61	238.61	71	338.22270370998	0	0.44082802967287	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-20 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	23	103	44.168	34.196	39.182	0	0	0.01	2.26	2.27	F	F	12.168	240.168	71	338.22270370998	0	0.46081457680844	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.764	33.836	38.3	0	0.060236253	0.150236253	4.58	4.730236253	T	F	10.764	235.764	71	338.22270370998	0	0.41082734674158	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.926	34.988	38.957	0	0.060236253	0.180236253	4.74	4.920236253	T	F	10.926	235.926	71	338.22270370998	0	0.41653755329225	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.584	34.304	38.444	0	0.064173263	0.154173263	4.74	4.894173263	T	F	10.584	234.584	71	338.22270370998	0	0.4045048104213	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.224	33.8	38.012	0	0.012992133	0.112992133	4.76	4.872992133	T	F	10.224	235.224	71	338.22270370998	0	0.39193580476087	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.26	33.998	38.129	0	0.012992133	0.102992133	4.85	4.952992133	T	F	10.26	236.26	71	338.22270370998	0	0.39318787907297	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-19 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.71	34.178	38.444	0	0	0.15	4.69	4.84	T	F	10.71	236.71	71	338.22270370998	0	0.40892807218907	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.602	34.268	38.435	0	0.075590592	0.215590592	5.49	5.705590592	T	F	10.602	236.602	71	338.22270370998	0	0.40513597251891	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.188	32.738	37.463	0	0.075590592	0.215590592	5.07	5.285590592	T	F	10.188	240.188	71	338.22270370998	0	0.39068484825186	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.17	32.36	37.265	0	0.075590592	0.215590592	4.79	5.005590592	T	F	10.17	240.17	71	338.22270370998	0	0.39005979300369	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	43.412	34.88	39.146	0	0.729134252	0.909134252	4.51	5.419134252	T	F	11.412	234.412	71	338.22270370998	0	0.43376943305621	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2025-10-18 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.872	33.944	38.408	0	0.729134252	0.909134252	4.43	5.339134252	T	F	10.872	233.872	71	338.22270370998	0	0.41463213047583	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2025-10-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	23	103	43.214	33.998	38.606	0	0.922441443	1.102441443	4.26	5.362441443	T	F	11.214	232.214	71	338.22270370998	0	0.42673189327205	16	2	5	2	4	5	2	90	WET	M
2025-10-18 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.242	34.646	38.444	0	2.50393836	3.32393836	4.03	7.35393836	T	T	10.242	225.242	71	338.22270370998	0	0.39256170295867	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2025-10-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	41.108	33.998	37.553	0	2.487009217	3.297009217	3.93	7.227009217	T	T	9.108	222.108	71	338.22270370998	0	0.35373536468367	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2025-10-17 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	23	103	41.198	33.98	37.589	0	2.734253445	3.464253445	3.95	7.414253445	T	T	9.198	221.198	71	338.22270370998	0	0.3567678511397	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2025-10-17 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	43.142	35.33	39.236	0	2.191339766	2.491339766	3.87	6.361339766	T	T	11.142	226.142	71	338.22270370998	0	0.42417843667519	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2025-10-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.926	34.358	38.642	0	2.191339766	2.491339766	3.86	6.351339766	T	T	10.926	227.926	71	338.22270370998	0	0.41653755329225	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2025-10-17 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.512	33.152	37.832	0	2.144883048	2.444883048	3.72	6.164883048	T	T	10.512	224.512	71	338.22270370998	0	0.40198266132189	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2025-10-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.926	33.224	38.075	0	1.485827574	1.995827574	3.72	5.715827574	T	F	10.926	220.926	71	338.22270370998	0	0.41653755329225	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2025-10-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.926	33.224	38.075	0	1.485827574	1.995827574	3.71	5.705827574	T	F	10.926	221.926	71	338.22270370998	0	0.41653755329225	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2025-10-16 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	43.448	33.944	38.696	0	1.59055204	2.21055204	3.57	5.78055204	T	T	11.448	219.448	71	338.22270370998	0	0.43505131249462	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2025-10-16 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	23	103	46.724	37.526	42.125	0	0.379527764	0.379527764	3.91	4.289527764	T	F	14.724	230.724	71	338.22270370998	0	0.55285893178044	16	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2025-10-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	48.146	38.93	43.538	0	0.379527764	0.379527764	3.88	4.259527764	T	F	16.146	236.146	71	338.22270370998	0	0.60316658534999	16	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2025-10-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	23	103	47.894	37.958	42.926	0	0.37007894	0.41007894	3.85	4.26007894	T	F	15.894	237.894	71	338.22270370998	0	0.59435055996992	16	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2025-10-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	49.532	36.788	43.16	0	0	0	3.76	3.76	T	F	17.532	233.532	71	338.22270370998	0	0.65060714342852	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	48.326	36.464	42.395	0	0	0	3.8	3.8	T	F	16.326	231.326	71	338.22270370998	0	0.60943190933497	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	23	103	48.974	36.86	42.917	0	0.052362233	0.082362233	3.84	3.922362233	T	F	16.974	232.974	71	338.22270370998	0	0.63174210875382	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	43.826	36.932	40.379	0	0.384645877	0.594645877	3.7	4.294645877	T	F	11.826	223.826	71	338.22270370998	0	0.44854973685529	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2025-10-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	23	103	43.826	36.932	40.379	0	0.384645877	0.594645877	3.69	4.284645877	T	F	11.826	217.826	71	338.22270370998	0	0.44854973685529	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2025-10-15 04:00:08	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.458	37.13	39.794	0	0.779921681	1.219921681	3.73	4.949921681	T	F	10.458	215.458	71	338.22270370998	0	0.40009371771623	16	2	5	2	4	5	2	90	WET	M
2025-10-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	23	103	39.812	34.664	37.238	0	1.42519762	2.13519762	3.37	5.50519762	T	F	7.812	207.812	71	338.22270370998	0	0.31117500491577	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2025-10-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	23	103	39.812	34.664	37.238	0	1.42519762	2.13519762	3.39	5.52519762	T	F	7.812	207.812	71	338.22270370998	0	0.31117500491577	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2025-10-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	37.904	34.052	35.978	0	1.403937766	2.123937766	3.38	5.503937766	T	F	5.904	209.904	71	338.22270370998	0	0.25296825701796	16	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2025-10-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	23	103	44.186	36.68	40.433	0	0.225196972	0.475196972	3.74	4.215196972	T	F	12.186	218.186	71	338.22270370998	0	0.46146123236752	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2025-10-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	44.186	36.68	40.433	0	0.225196972	0.475196972	3.73	4.205196972	T	F	12.186	219.186	71	338.22270370998	0	0.46146123236752	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2025-10-14 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	23	103	44.708	35.384	40.046	0	0.333071046	0.533071046	3.64	4.173071046	T	F	12.708	224.708	71	338.22270370998	0	0.48025165106346	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	MH
2025-10-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	23	103	40.37	34.196	37.283	0	0.076377994	0.556377994	3.43	3.986377994	T	F	8.37	223.37	71	338.22270370998	0	0.32923306671497	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2025-10-13 20:00:05	FORECAST	2026	23	103	40.37	34.196	37.283	0	0.076377994	0.556377994	3.44	3.996377994	T	F	8.37	223.37	71	338.22270370998	0	0.32923306671497	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2025-10-13 16:00:04	FORECAST	2026	23	103	41.036	34.448	37.742	0	0.198819005	0.568819005	3.41	3.978819005	T	F	9.036	225.036	71	338.22270370998	0	0.35131602577082	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2025-10-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.818	40.694	41.756	0	0.083070911	0.563070911	3.08	3.643070911	T	F	10.818	232.818	71	338.22270370998	0	0.41272871387383	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2025-10-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	23	103	42.818	40.694	41.756	0	0.083070911	0.563070911	3.09	3.653070911	T	F	10.818	235.818	71	338.22270370998	0	0.41272871387383	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2025-10-13 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	23	103	43.898	41.936	42.917	0	0	0.2	3.12	3.32	F	F	11.898	236.898	71	338.22270370998	0	0.45112812487136	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M