Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 22, 2025

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DAY 22 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/23/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.32°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.82°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.57°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.690 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 19 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 251 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.14 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.04 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.04 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 72 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 339.21 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 102 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 5 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-23 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2026	22	102	51.31994	35.81996	43.56995	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	19.31994	251.31994	72	339.20760493838	0	0.69045877887949	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-23 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	22	102	48.308	35.204	41.756	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	16.308	248.308	72	339.20760493838	0	0.58363530993102	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-22 12:00:01	FORECAST	2026	22	102	44.168	35.69	39.929	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	12.168	244.168	72	339.20760493838	0	0.42785600922425	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-22 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.554	36.41	40.982	0	0.012992133	0.012992133	2.2	2.212992133	F	F	13.554	245.554	72	339.20760493838	0	0.47996034811212	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	22	102	46.184	36.914	41.549	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	14.184	246.184	72	339.20760493838	0	0.50381261338544	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-22 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.896	36.086	40.991	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	13.896	238.896	72	339.20760493838	0	0.49290527023644	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-21 20:00:01	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.734	35.528	40.631	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	13.734	239.734	72	339.20760493838	0	0.48677169765381	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-21 16:00:01	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.482	35.564	40.523	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	13.482	239.482	72	339.20760493838	0	0.47723733430791	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-21 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.428	35.384	40.406	0	0.024409462	0.024409462	2.2	2.224409462	F	F	13.428	239.428	72	339.20760493838	0	0.4751957641986	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-21 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	46.202	35.024	40.613	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	14.202	240.202	72	339.20760493838	0	0.50449431230436	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.662	34.916	40.289	0	0	0	2.2	2.2	F	F	13.662	238.662	72	339.20760493838	0	0.48404658321701	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-21 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.32	35.222	40.271	0	0.060236253	0.120236253	2.2	2.320236253	F	F	13.32	242.32	72	339.20760493838	0	0.47111463052524	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	44.852	35.06	39.956	0	0.020866153	0.080866153	2.2	2.280866153	F	F	12.852	240.852	72	339.20760493838	0	0.45347020728964	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	46.004	36.482	41.243	0	0.028346472	0.088346472	2.2	2.288346472	F	F	14.004	243.004	72	339.20760493838	0	0.4969953403316	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-20 12:00:01	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.86	36.878	41.369	0	0.010236226	0.070236226	2.2	2.270236226	F	F	13.86	242.86	72	339.20760493838	0	0.49154205803637	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-20 08:00:01	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.86	36.878	41.369	0	0.010236226	0.070236226	2.2	2.270236226	F	F	13.86	242.86	72	339.20760493838	0	0.49154205803637	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-20 04:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	46.238	37.094	41.666	0	0.010236226	0.070236226	2.2	2.270236226	F	F	14.238	244.238	72	339.20760493838	0	0.5058576687807	16	3	5	2	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2025-10-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	46.238	35.798	41.018	0	0.091732333	0.091732333	4.58	4.671732333	T	F	14.238	241.238	72	339.20760493838	0	0.5058576687807	16	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2025-10-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.608	35.384	40.496	0	0.117322898	0.127322898	4.73	4.857322898	T	F	13.608	240.608	72	339.20760493838	0	0.48200322933488	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2025-10-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.716	35.942	40.829	0	0.092913436	0.102913436	4.73	4.832913436	T	F	13.716	239.716	72	339.20760493838	0	0.4860903561544	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	MH
2025-10-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	46.706	36.626	41.666	0	0.104724466	0.134724466	4.73	4.864724466	T	F	14.706	240.706	72	339.20760493838	0	0.52356928628746	16	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2025-10-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	46.832	36.14	41.486	0	0.090157529	0.130157529	4.81	4.940157529	T	F	14.832	241.832	72	339.20760493838	0	0.52833130983683	16	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2025-10-19 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	22	102	47.372	36.626	41.999	0	0.151968586	0.181968586	4.66	4.841968586	T	F	15.372	242.372	72	339.20760493838	0	0.54868576555738	16	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2025-10-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	47.228	36.554	41.891	0	0.138189051	0.148189051	5.48	5.628189051	T	F	15.228	242.228	72	339.20760493838	0	0.54326817958102	16	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2025-10-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	48.884	36.23	42.557	0	0.138189051	0.158189051	5.05	5.208189051	T	F	16.884	245.884	72	339.20760493838	0	0.60483649400958	16	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2025-10-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	49.226	36.248	42.737	0	0.138582752	0.158582752	4.77	4.928582752	T	F	17.226	246.226	72	339.20760493838	0	0.61728369521255	16	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	WET	MH
2025-10-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	43.952	35.942	39.947	0	0.176771749	0.186771749	4.5	4.686771749	T	F	11.952	238.952	72	339.20760493838	0	0.41982484712994	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-18 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	42.8	34.988	38.894	0	0.176771749	0.216771749	4.39	4.606771749	T	F	10.8	238.8	72	339.20760493838	0	0.37763083384921	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	22	102	41.594	34.916	38.255	0	0.177559151	0.217559151	4.22	4.437559151	T	F	9.594	236.594	72	339.20760493838	0	0.33497937497805	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-18 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	40.676	35.546	38.111	0	0.815354771	0.815354771	4.03	4.845354771	T	F	8.676	230.676	72	339.20760493838	0	0.30384963817917	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2025-10-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	39.524	34.196	36.86	0	0.805118545	0.805118545	3.93	4.735118545	T	F	7.524	228.524	72	339.20760493838	0	0.26672848238385	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2025-10-17 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	22	102	40.136	33.602	36.869	0	0.725590943	0.725590943	3.95	4.675590943	T	F	8.136	228.136	72	339.20760493838	0	0.28616272528159	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2025-10-17 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	43.502	33.566	38.534	0	0.109448878	0.299448878	3.87	4.169448878	T	F	11.502	230.502	72	339.20760493838	0	0.40320376708587	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	44.456	33.656	39.056	0	0.109448878	0.299448878	3.86	4.159448878	T	F	12.456	233.456	72	339.20760493838	0	0.43861032063479	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-17 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	22	102	43.466	33.278	38.372	0	0.109842579	0.299842579	3.72	4.019842579	T	F	11.466	230.466	72	339.20760493838	0	0.40188118074923	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M
2025-10-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	40.64	34.538	37.589	0	0.473228602	0.513228602	3.72	4.233228602	T	F	8.64	225.64	72	339.20760493838	0	0.30265547062623	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2025-10-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	40.64	34.538	37.589	0	0.473228602	0.513228602	3.71	4.223228602	T	F	8.64	226.64	72	339.20760493838	0	0.30265547062623	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2025-10-16 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	39.866	33.674	36.77	0	0.471260097	0.621260097	3.57	4.191260097	T	F	7.866	223.866	72	339.20760493838	0	0.27750635936828	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2025-10-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.608	34.556	40.082	0	0	0.03	3.88	3.91	T	F	13.608	231.608	72	339.20760493838	0	0.48200322933488	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.266	34.592	39.929	0	0	0.03	3.85	3.88	T	F	13.266	236.266	72	339.20760493838	0	0.46907517372702	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.068	34.214	39.641	0	0.035826791	0.045826791	3.84	3.885826791	T	F	13.068	238.068	72	339.20760493838	0	0.46160450952138	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	42.296	35.996	39.146	0	0	0.07	3.69	3.76	T	F	10.296	232.296	72	339.20760493838	0	0.35958898226391	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	42.782	37.022	39.902	0	0	0.07	3.73	3.8	T	F	10.782	230.782	72	339.20760493838	0	0.3769815932781	16	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2025-10-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	22	102	42.746	37.004	39.875	0	0.00787402	0.10787402	3.76	3.86787402	T	F	10.746	231.746	72	339.20760493838	0	0.37568415636498	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	41.054	33.638	37.346	0	0.078346499	0.238346499	3.67	3.908346499	T	F	9.054	228.054	72	339.20760493838	0	0.31651290227916	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	22	102	41.144	29.984	35.564	0	0.078346499	0.238346499	3.66	3.898346499	T	F	9.144	222.144	72	339.20760493838	0	0.31956066968155	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-15 04:00:07	FORECAST	2026	22	102	40.64	29.858	35.249	0	0.214960746	0.494960746	3.68	4.174960746	T	F	8.64	220.64	72	339.20760493838	0	0.30265547062623	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	M
2025-10-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	22	102	37.508	30.524	34.016	0	0.319685212	0.739685212	3.34	4.079685212	T	F	5.508	215.508	72	339.20760493838	0	0.207772552647	16	1	5	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	22	102	37.508	30.308	33.908	0	0.319685212	0.739685212	3.36	4.099685212	T	F	5.508	215.508	72	339.20760493838	0	0.207772552647	16	1	5	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	38.066	31.064	34.565	0	0.329527737	0.749527737	3.35	4.099527737	T	F	6.066	220.066	72	339.20760493838	0	0.22327394764973	16	1	5	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-14 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	22	102	40.748	32.432	36.59	0	0.247244228	0.337244228	3.65	3.987244228	T	F	8.748	221.748	72	339.20760493838	0	0.30624424867144	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	40.748	32.432	36.59	0	0.247244228	0.337244228	3.64	3.977244228	T	F	8.748	222.748	72	339.20760493838	0	0.30624424867144	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-14 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	22	102	40.946	33.08	37.013	0	0.196456799	0.286456799	3.55	3.836456799	T	F	8.946	227.946	72	339.20760493838	0	0.31287196311814	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	22	102	38.822	29.12	33.971	0	0.042126007	0.572126007	3.34	3.912126007	T	F	6.822	230.822	72	339.20760493838	0	0.24528772734666	16	1	5	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-13 20:00:05	FORECAST	2026	22	102	38.822	29.12	33.971	0	0.042126007	0.572126007	3.35	3.922126007	T	F	6.822	230.822	72	339.20760493838	0	0.24528772734666	16	1	5	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	22	102	39.29	28.922	34.106	0	0.037795296	0.467795296	3.31	3.777795296	T	F	7.29	232.29	72	339.20760493838	0	0.25947788137561	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.014	28.328	36.671	0	0.464960881	0.684960881	2.88	3.564960881	T	F	13.014	238.014	72	339.20760493838	0	0.459569292765	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2025-10-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	22	102	45.014	28.328	36.671	0	0.464960881	0.684960881	2.89	3.574960881	T	F	13.014	241.014	72	339.20760493838	0	0.459569292765	16	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2025-10-13 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	22	102	49.352	29.12	39.236	0	0.170866234	0.380866234	2.94	3.320866234	F	F	17.352	241.352	72	339.20760493838	0	0.62183989956406	16	3	5	2	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2025-10-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	22	102	33.818	29.804	31.811	0	0.42126007	1.12126007	3.55	4.67126007	T	F	1.818	220.818	72	339.20760493838	0	0.12205927161426	16	1	5	2	4	5	2	80	WET	L
2025-10-12 20:00:04	FORECAST	2026	22	102	33.818	29.804	31.811	0	0.42126007	1.12126007	3.45	4.57126007	T	F	1.818	209.818	72	339.20760493838	0	0.12205927161426	16	1	5	2	4	5	2	80	WET	L
2025-10-12 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	38.66	30.74	34.7	0	0.155118194	0.785118194	3.49	4.275118194	T	F	6.66	217.66	72	339.20760493838	0	0.24047461142273	16	1	5	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-12 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	38.678	34.898	36.788	0	0	0.49	3.04	3.53	T	F	6.678	221.678	72	339.20760493838	0	0.24100685363527	16	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-12 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	22	102	38.678	34.898	36.788	0	0	0.49	3.18	3.67	T	F	6.678	214.678	72	339.20760493838	0	0.24100685363527	16	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-12 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	22	102	37.976	36.824	37.4	0	0	0.67	2.84	3.51	T	F	5.976	216.976	72	339.20760493838	0	0.22073017427402	16	1	5	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H