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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, October 21, 2025

[ Monday, October 20, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, October 22, 2025 ]

DAY 21 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/22/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.81°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.22°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.51°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.790
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 242

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.18 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.46 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 73
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 340.19 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 101

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-22 04:00:03OBSERVATION20262110154.8099632.2199643.514960002.622.62FF22.80996241.8099673340.18877064411 00.7901306236302316 45215227.5DRYL
2025-10-22 00:00:02FORECAST20262110147.76833.99840.8830002.622.62FF15.768234.76873340.1887706441100.553240588456871635215225DRYL
2025-10-21 12:00:02FORECAST20262110148.68633.67441.180002.622.62FF16.686235.68673340.1887706441100.587680147831941635215225DRYL
2025-10-21 08:00:02FORECAST20262110148.54232.97240.7570002.622.62FF16.542235.54273340.1887706441100.58231529347211635215225DRYL
2025-10-21 04:00:04FORECAST20262110148.234.28641.2430002.622.62FF16.2235.273340.1887706441100.569513992655091635215225DRYL
2025-10-21 00:00:01FORECAST20262110148.70433.63841.171000.062.622.68FF16.704238.70473340.1887706441100.588349626145371635215225DRYL
2025-10-20 20:00:02FORECAST20262110147.42632.55839.992000.062.622.68FF15.426238.42673340.1887706441100.540292188668591635215225DRYL
2025-10-20 16:00:02FORECAST20262110148.43432.97240.703000.062.622.68FF16.434239.43473340.1887706441100.57828151805791635215225DRYL
2025-10-20 12:00:01FORECAST20262110148.09233.02640.559000.062.622.68FF16.092239.09273340.1887706441100.56545558228441635215225DRYL
2025-10-20 08:00:01FORECAST20262110148.09233.02640.559000.062.622.68FF16.092239.09273340.1887706441100.56545558228441635215225DRYL
2025-10-20 04:00:02FORECAST20262110149.0133.27841.144000.062.622.68FF17.01240.0173340.1887706441100.599689900645271635215225DRYL
2025-10-20 00:00:02FORECAST20262110148.8333.56641.198002.382.625TF16.83236.8373340.1887706441100.5930286715683616352552125WETMH
2025-10-19 20:00:03FORECAST20262110149.06434.68241.873002.542.625.16TF17.064237.06473340.1887706441100.6016827238826816352552125WETMH
2025-10-19 16:00:02FORECAST20262110148.09234.59241.342002.542.625.16TF16.092236.09273340.1887706441100.565455582284416352552125WETMH
2025-10-19 12:00:02FORECAST20262110148.2934.86241.576002.562.625.18TF16.29236.2973340.1887706441100.5728904209664716352552125WETMH
2025-10-19 08:00:02FORECAST20262110148.6535.25841.954002.652.625.27TF16.65236.6573340.1887706441100.5863404275559416352552125WETMH
2025-10-19 04:00:04FORECAST20262110149.06434.6141.837002.492.625.11TF17.064237.06473340.1887706441100.6016827238826816352552125WETMH
2025-10-19 00:00:02FORECAST20262110149.65835.18642.422002.363.555.91TT17.658236.65873340.1887706441100.6234182699885316352552125WETH
2025-10-18 20:00:02FORECAST20262110150.30635.36642.836002.283.215.49TF18.306239.30673340.1887706441100.646689335451616352552125WETMH
2025-10-18 16:00:02FORECAST20262110150.50435.11442.8090023.215.21TF18.504238.50473340.1887706441100.653696556116352552125WETMH
2025-10-18 12:00:02FORECAST20262110149.47835.29442.386001.723.214.93TF17.478237.47873340.1887706441100.6168694468004916352552125WETMH
2025-10-18 08:00:01FORECAST20262110148.72235.43842.08001.63.254.85TF16.722237.72273340.1887706441100.5890188473991216352552125WETMH
2025-10-18 04:00:04FORECAST20262110148.09234.8841.486001.573.114.68TF16.092237.09273340.1887706441100.565455582284416352552125WETMH
2025-10-18 00:00:02FORECAST20262110144.36634.68239.524001.423.034.45TF12.366232.36673340.1887706441100.424161669857781625245290WETM
2025-10-17 20:00:02FORECAST20262110143.1634.2538.705001.382.974.35TF11.16231.1673340.1887706441100.379608318160621625245290WETM
2025-10-17 16:00:03FORECAST20262110142.5334.82638.678001.42.974.37TF10.53229.5373340.1887706441100.356915382905021625245290WETM
2025-10-17 12:00:02FORECAST20262110141.41433.20637.3100.1862205731.6662205732.814.476220573TF9.414229.41473340.1887706441100.3179747935179516252552112.5WETM
2025-10-17 08:00:02FORECAST20262110142.11633.27837.69700.1862205731.5962205732.874.466220573TF10.116231.11673340.1887706441100.3422681643339316252552112.5WETM
2025-10-17 04:00:03FORECAST20262110142.00832.97237.4900.1866142741.5666142742.764.326614274TF10.008229.00873340.1887706441100.3384847695651716252552112.5WETM
2025-10-17 00:00:02FORECAST20262110139.59633.27836.43700.0362204921.4062204922.774.176220492TF7.596226.59673340.1887706441100.25877648031851625245290WETM
2025-10-16 20:00:02FORECAST20262110139.59633.27836.43700.0362204921.4262204922.744.166220492TF7.596227.59673340.1887706441100.25877648031851625245290WETM
2025-10-16 16:00:02FORECAST20262110138.49831.53235.01500.1519685861.4319685862.714.141968586TF6.498226.49873340.1887706441100.226003353119591615245280WETM
2025-10-16 12:00:02FORECAST20262110139.39833.65636.527001.482.854.33TF7.398228.39873340.1887706441100.252690561111981625245290WETM
2025-10-16 08:00:02FORECAST20262110140.33434.17837.256001.542.764.3TF8.334233.33473340.1887706441100.2821093916468716252552112.5WETM
2025-10-16 04:00:03FORECAST20262110140.3734.30437.337001.512.764.27TF8.37235.3773340.1887706441100.2832729580110916252552112.5WETM
2025-10-16 00:00:02FORECAST20262110141.59433.51237.553001.582.64.18TF9.594231.59473340.1887706441100.3241349041023516252552112.5WETM
2025-10-15 20:00:02FORECAST20262110141.95433.02637.49001.572.654.22TF9.954229.95473340.1887706441100.3365991350485416252552112.5WETM
2025-10-15 16:00:03FORECAST20262110141.9932.95437.47200.0216535551.6116535552.674.281653555TF9.99230.9973340.1887706441100.3378557720364716252552112.5WETM
2025-10-15 12:00:02FORECAST20262110139.63232.68436.15800.1311024331.5011024332.754.251102433TF7.632228.63273340.1887706441100.2598910937404316252552112.5WETM
2025-10-15 08:00:02FORECAST20262110137.41834.01635.71700.1342520411.4842520412.764.244252041TF5.418223.41873340.1887706441100.19618722177921615245280WETM
2025-10-15 04:00:07FORECAST20262110136.10433.834.95200.2267717761.6067717762.774.376771776TF4.104222.10473340.1887706441100.1633058728421616152552100WETM
2025-10-15 00:00:03FORECAST20262110136.3230.66833.49400.3893702891.3293702892.854.179370289TF4.32220.3273340.1887706441100.168450737085061615245280WETM
2025-10-14 20:00:03FORECAST20262110138.01230.16434.08800.3893702891.3293702892.874.199370289TF6.012220.01273340.1887706441100.212280868817191615245280WETM
2025-10-14 16:00:02FORECAST20262110138.26430.4734.36700.3870080831.3270080832.864.187008083TF6.264224.26473340.1887706441100.219334658961251615245280WETM
2025-10-14 12:00:03FORECAST20262110137.97628.14833.06200.0031496081.0031496083.164.163149608TF5.976222.97673340.1887706441100.211284100130221615245280WETM
2025-10-14 08:00:02FORECAST20262110136.44627.46431.95500.0031496081.0031496083.154.153149608TF4.446224.44673340.1887706441100.171499396662211615245280WETL
2025-10-14 04:00:05FORECAST20262110136.5927.53632.06300.0031496080.9031496083.164.063149608TF4.59228.5973340.1887706441100.175026365324191615235260WETM
2025-10-14 00:00:03FORECAST20262110135.07827.75231.41500.4433073261.4433073262.854.293307326TF3.078234.07873340.1887706441100.140273200290871615245280WETL
2025-10-13 20:00:04FORECAST20262110135.07827.80631.44200.4433073261.4433073262.864.303307326TF3.078234.07873340.1887706441100.140273200290871615245280WETL
2025-10-13 16:00:03FORECAST20262110135.56427.71631.6400.3338584481.3038584482.864.163858448TF3.564234.56473340.1887706441100.150894129432371615245280WETL
2025-10-13 12:00:02FORECAST20262110136.6827.21231.94600.0224409570.8924409572.633.522440957TF4.68234.6873340.1887706441100.177253864653281615235260DRYH
2025-10-13 08:00:03FORECAST20262110136.6827.21231.94600.0224409570.8924409572.643.532440957TF4.68237.6873340.1887706441100.177253864653281615235260DRYH
2025-10-13 04:00:04FORECAST20262110136.62626.47431.5500.0307086780.9307086782.643.570708678TF4.626233.62673340.1887706441100.175915230359411615235260DRYH
2025-10-13 00:00:03FORECAST20262110135.49226.47430.98300.4692915921.4392915923.234.669291592TF3.492229.49273340.1887706441100.149287841301041615245280WETL
2025-10-12 20:00:04FORECAST20262110135.49226.47430.98300.4692915921.4392915923.134.569291592TF3.492218.49273340.1887706441100.149287841301041615245280WETL
2025-10-12 16:00:02FORECAST20262110137.1326.74431.93700.4385829141.3785829143.164.538582914TF5.13221.1373340.1887706441100.188657466425571615245280WETL
2025-10-12 12:00:02FORECAST20262110141.30630.09235.69900.31496081.24496082.713.9549608TF9.306225.30673340.1887706441100.314302598217221625245290DRYVH
2025-10-12 08:00:02FORECAST20262110141.30630.09235.69900.31496081.24496082.854.0949608TF9.306218.30673340.1887706441100.314302598217221625245290WETM
2025-10-12 04:00:04FORECAST20262110141.52229.6635.59100.3397639631.4897639632.443.929763963TF9.522220.52273340.1887706441100.321664960067531625245290DRYVH
2025-10-12 00:00:03FORECAST20262110133.49430.72232.108000.522.382.9FF1.494207.49473340.1887706441100.109226200060951615235260DRYH
2025-10-11 20:00:03FORECAST20262110129.9327.78828.859000.522.462.98FF-2.07198.9373340.1887706441100.0579727705563131615135252.5DRYMH
2025-10-11 16:00:03FORECAST20262110129.37227.93228.65200.0311023790.7111023792.553.261102379FF-2.628194.37273340.1887706441100.0520258129508931615135252.5DRYMH
2025-10-11 12:00:03FORECAST20262110123.93621.18222.559000.962.943.9TF-8.064190.93673340.1887706441100.0158768826429541615135252.5DRYMH
2025-10-11 08:00:04FORECAST20262110123.93621.18222.559000.962.963.92TF-8.064191.93673340.1887706441100.0158768826429541615135252.5DRYMH
2025-10-11 04:00:04FORECAST20262110127.6826.79827.23900.0295275751.0295275752.863.889527575TF-4.32196.6873340.1887706441100.0369009900242091615145270DRYH