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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 20, 2025

[ Sunday, October 19, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, October 21, 2025 ]

DAY 20 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/21/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.39°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.88°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.147
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 234

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.14 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.20 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.51 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 74
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 341.17 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 100

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-21 04:00:03OBSERVATION20262010036.3700431.3899833.88001000.382.262.64FF4.37004234.3700474341.1662149952 00.1471828028325716 15225240DRYM
2025-10-21 00:00:01FORECAST20262010039.39828.05833.72800.0566929440.4366929442.262.696692944FF7.398237.39874341.166214995200.228199513749991615225240DRYM
2025-10-20 12:00:01FORECAST20262010039.90228.92234.41200.0570866450.4370866452.262.697086645FF7.902237.90274341.166214995200.243766768653031615225240DRYM
2025-10-20 08:00:01FORECAST20262010039.90228.92234.41200.0570866450.4370866452.262.697086645FF7.902237.90274341.166214995200.243766768653031615225240DRYM
2025-10-20 04:00:02FORECAST20262010039.50629.91234.70900.0570866450.4370866452.262.697086645FF7.506237.50674341.166214995200.231487617815741615225240DRYM
2025-10-20 00:00:02FORECAST20262010039.75830.23634.997002.762.265.02TF7.758234.75874341.166214995200.2392614434675816152552100WETM
2025-10-19 20:00:02FORECAST20262010040.06429.98435.02400.0129921332.9229921332.265.182992133TF8.064235.06474341.166214995200.2488894187491716152552100WETM
2025-10-19 16:00:01FORECAST20262010040.02830.23635.13200.0133858342.9233858342.265.183385834TF8.028235.02874341.166214995200.2477461300482316152552100WETM
2025-10-19 12:00:02FORECAST20262010039.93830.39835.16800.0342519872.9442519872.265.204251987TF7.938234.93874341.166214995200.2449002019135816152552100WETM
2025-10-19 08:00:02FORECAST20262010040.26230.5635.41100.0397638013.0297638012.265.289763801TT8.262235.26274341.166214995200.2552273026782416252552112.5WETH
2025-10-19 04:00:04FORECAST20262010039.8330.30835.06900.0322834822.8722834822.265.132283482TF7.83234.8374341.166214995200.2415084094840116152552100WETM
2025-10-19 00:00:01FORECAST20262010040.22630.1135.16800.0114173293.6714173292.265.931417329TT8.226234.22674341.166214995200.2540687261117816252552112.5WETH
2025-10-18 20:00:02FORECAST20262010040.22630.18235.20400.0232283593.2532283592.265.513228359TT8.226236.22674341.166214995200.2540687261117816252552112.5WETH
2025-10-18 16:00:02FORECAST20262010040.15429.334.72700.0244094622.9744094622.265.234409462TF8.154235.15474341.166214995200.2517598642140916252552112.5WETM
2025-10-18 12:00:01FORECAST20262010040.17229.5734.87100.0122047312.6922047312.264.952204731TF8.172235.17274341.166214995200.2523360406612516252552112.5WETM
2025-10-18 08:00:01FORECAST20262010039.57830.9235.24900.0401575022.6101575022.264.870157502TF7.578235.57874341.166214995200.233694255151416152552100WETM
2025-10-18 04:00:03FORECAST20262010039.84830.34435.09600.0358267912.4358267912.264.695826791TF7.848235.84874341.166214995200.242071933494616152552100WETM
2025-10-18 00:00:01FORECAST20262010040.9129.4835.195002.212.264.47TF8.91234.9174341.166214995200.2765436723037616252552112.5WETM
2025-10-17 20:00:02FORECAST20262010040.58629.33634.961002.112.264.37TF8.586234.58674341.166214995200.2657773019804116252552112.5WETM
2025-10-17 16:00:03FORECAST20262010040.76629.19234.979002.132.264.39TF8.766233.76674341.166214995200.2717323486633416252552112.5WETM
2025-10-17 12:00:02FORECAST20262010041.52229.1235.321002.052.264.31TF9.522234.52274341.166214995200.2974448438791416252552112.5WETM
2025-10-17 08:00:02FORECAST20262010041.79229.33635.5640022.34.3TF9.792235.79274341.166214995200.3068895346519616252552112.5WETM
2025-10-17 04:00:03FORECAST20262010041.52228.434.961001.92.264.16TF9.522233.52274341.166214995200.2974448438791416252552112.5WETM
2025-10-17 00:00:02FORECAST20262010040.33428.00434.169001.892.274.16TF8.334234.33474341.166214995200.2575527045628516252552112.5WETM
2025-10-16 20:00:01FORECAST20262010040.33428.18434.259001.872.284.15TF8.334235.33474341.166214995200.2575527045628516252552112.5WETM
2025-10-16 16:00:02FORECAST20262010039.3827.51833.449001.752.264.01TF7.38235.3874341.166214995200.2276540562104316152552100WETM
2025-10-16 12:00:02FORECAST20262010039.14628.36433.75500.0271653692.0671653692.284.347165369TF7.146236.14674341.166214995200.2206301341372616152552100WETM
2025-10-16 08:00:02FORECAST20262010040.42429.33634.8800.0267716682.0567716682.264.316771668TF8.424240.42474341.166214995200.2604748339286216252552112.5WETM
2025-10-16 04:00:03FORECAST20262010040.3729.60634.98800.0122047312.0322047312.264.292204731TF8.37242.3774341.166214995200.2587195126117516252552112.5WETM
2025-10-16 00:00:02FORECAST20262010038.10230.48834.29500.0716535821.9416535822.264.201653582TF6.102237.10274341.166214995200.1908419671833916152552100WETM
2025-10-15 20:00:02FORECAST20262010038.01230.57834.29500.0716535821.9816535822.264.241653582TF6.012235.01274341.166214995200.1883947393777416152552100WETM
2025-10-15 16:00:02FORECAST20262010037.95830.23634.09700.0830709111.9930709112.294.283070911TF5.958235.95874341.166214995200.1869357162736816152552100WETM
2025-10-15 12:00:02FORECAST20262010037.5829.80433.69200.0299212761.8199212762.324.139921276TF5.58235.5874341.166214995200.1769189125728716152552100WETM
2025-10-15 08:00:02FORECAST20262010037.18429.19233.18800.0299212761.8199212762.314.129921276TF5.184233.18474341.166214995200.1667954716675516152552100WETM
2025-10-15 04:00:07FORECAST20262010036.96829.3933.17900.0507874291.8707874292.34.170787429TF4.968232.96874341.166214995200.1614339553136916152552100WETM
2025-10-15 00:00:03FORECAST20262010034.68227.33831.0100.0322834821.5122834822.33.812283482TF2.682230.68274341.166214995200.1115997091956516152552100DRYVH
2025-10-14 20:00:02FORECAST20262010035.04228.27431.65800.0322834821.5222834822.313.832283482TF3.042229.04274341.166214995200.1186199551221516152552100DRYVH
2025-10-14 16:00:02FORECAST20262010034.9728.92231.94600.0318897811.5218897812.33.821889781TF2.97232.9774341.166214995200.1171915893163416152552100DRYVH
2025-10-14 12:00:03FORECAST20262010034.91628.05831.48700.0893701271.8593701272.324.179370127TF2.916231.91674341.166214995200.1161283159961416152552100WETL
2025-10-14 08:00:02FORECAST20262010034.93427.96831.45100.0893701271.8593701272.314.169370127TF2.934234.93474341.166214995200.1164819793791816152552100WETL
2025-10-14 04:00:05FORECAST20262010035.9628.00431.98200.0889764261.7689764262.314.078976426TF3.96238.9674341.166214995200.137911591230916152552100WETL
2025-10-14 00:00:03FORECAST20262010036.1426.47431.30700.0929134361.5029134362.373.872913436TF4.14246.1474341.166214995200.1419313961016216152552100DRYVH
2025-10-13 20:00:04FORECAST20262010033.81826.40230.1100.0929134361.5029134362.383.882913436TF1.818245.81874341.166214995200.09597235430169416152552100DRYVH
2025-10-13 16:00:03FORECAST20262010034.30426.79830.55100.1011811571.4711811572.383.851181157TF2.304246.30474341.166214995200.104552831003371615245280DRYVH
2025-10-13 12:00:02FORECAST20262010035.70829.0332.36900.1964567991.1164567992.43.516456799TF3.708244.70874341.166214995200.132415101035961615245280DRYVH
2025-10-13 08:00:03FORECAST20262010035.00628.61631.81100.1964567991.1164567992.413.526456799TF3.006248.00674341.166214995200.117904246648771615245280DRYVH
2025-10-13 04:00:04FORECAST20262010034.75428.9431.84700.1799213571.1499213572.413.559921357TF2.754243.75474341.166214995200.112979505160441615245280DRYVH
2025-10-13 00:00:02FORECAST20262010032.05427.53629.79500.2338583941.5438583942.684.223858394TF0.054000000000002241.05474341.166214995200.06915230510958816152552100WETL
2025-10-12 20:00:04FORECAST20262010032.05427.33829.69600.2338583941.5438583942.584.123858394TF0.054000000000002230.05474341.166214995200.06915230510958816152552100WETL
2025-10-12 16:00:02FORECAST20262010032.5427.30229.92100.185039471.515039472.64.11503947TF0.54230.5474341.166214995200.07588964296076816152552100WETL
2025-10-12 12:00:02FORECAST20262010033.00827.37430.19100.1842520681.1842520682.483.664252068TF1.008231.00874341.166214995200.0828373732409171615245280DRYVH
2025-10-12 08:00:02FORECAST20262010033.00827.37430.19100.1842520681.1842520682.623.804252068TF1.008224.00874341.166214995200.0828373732409171615245280DRYVH
2025-10-12 04:00:03FORECAST20262010033.31428.6730.99200.3279529331.3579529332.253.607952933TF1.314226.31474341.166214995200.0876313828653391615245280DRYVH
2025-10-12 00:00:03FORECAST20262010037.79629.04833.42200.0618110570.7618110572.162.921811057FF5.796220.79674341.166214995200.182600660240431615235260DRYH
2025-10-11 20:00:02FORECAST20262010037.1327.24832.18900.0618110570.7618110572.243.001811057FF5.13216.1374341.166214995200.165444468416271615235260DRYH
2025-10-11 16:00:03FORECAST20262010037.86827.30232.58500.1232284130.9132284132.343.253228413FF5.868211.86874341.166214995200.184519563152121615235260DRYH
2025-10-11 12:00:03FORECAST20262010036.57221.88429.22800.0980315491.2780315492.643.918031549TF4.572213.57274341.166214995200.151898969936931615245280DRYVH
2025-10-11 08:00:04FORECAST20262010036.57221.88429.22800.0980315491.2780315492.663.938031549TF4.572214.57274341.166214995200.151898969936931615245280DRYVH
2025-10-11 04:00:04FORECAST20262010035.47426.00630.7400.3287403351.2387403352.643.878740335TF3.474216.47474341.166214995200.127447721929821615245280DRYVH
2025-10-11 00:00:03FORECAST20262010026.70822.8224.76400.0188976480.8388976482.813.648897648TF-5.292184.70874341.166214995200.0216700148325961615135252.5DRYMH
2025-10-10 20:00:03FORECAST20262010026.45622.8224.63800.0177165450.8577165453.083.937716545TF-5.544190.45674341.166214995200.0203866155855951615135252.5DRYMH
2025-10-10 16:00:03FORECAST20262010030.30826.31228.3100.0173228440.7173228442.893.607322844TF-1.692197.30874341.166214995200.0486822284885591615135252.5DRYMH
2025-10-10 12:00:03FORECAST20262010022.15420.78621.47000.193.223.41FF-9.846197.15474341.166214995200.00656942353222821615125235DRYL
2025-10-10 08:00:03FORECAST20262010022.15420.78621.47000.193.163.35FF-9.846198.15474341.166214995200.00656942353222821615125235DRYL
2025-10-10 04:00:05FORECAST20262010027.42825.21426.321000.333.283.61TF-4.572203.42874341.166214995200.0257174374617321615225240DRYM