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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 19, 2025

[ Saturday, October 18, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, October 20, 2025 ]

DAY 19 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/20/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.16°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.22°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.69°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.201
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 241

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.90 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.45 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 75
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 99

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-20 04:00:02OBSERVATION2026199939.1600430.2199834.69001000.382.342.72FF7.16004241.1600475342.13995210598 00.2007372019284516 14225235DRYL
2025-10-20 00:00:01FORECAST2026199935.92427.53631.7302.3775603392.7575603392.345.097560339TF3.924237.92475342.1399521059800.123115538387471614255287.5WETL
2025-10-19 12:00:01FORECAST2026199935.85227.24831.5502.527560422.907560422.345.24756042TF3.852237.85275342.1399521059800.121668159411251614255287.5WETL
2025-10-19 08:00:02FORECAST2026199935.83427.98631.9102.6125998362.9925998362.345.332599836TT3.834237.83475342.1399521059800.121308184920731614255287.5WETL
2025-10-19 04:00:03FORECAST2026199935.88827.19431.54102.4637808582.8437808582.345.183780858TF3.888237.88875342.1399521059800.122390351893561614255287.5WETL
2025-10-19 00:00:01FORECAST2026199935.67226.99631.33402.3472453623.6572453622.345.997245362TT3.672236.67275342.1399521059800.118101992328921614255287.5WETL
2025-10-18 20:00:02FORECAST2026199938.24630.93834.59202.2566941323.2266941322.345.566694132TT6.246239.24675342.1399521059800.176312518031611614255287.5WETH
2025-10-18 16:00:02FORECAST2026199937.47230.8334.15101.9759853192.9459853192.345.285985319TT5.472238.47275342.1399521059800.157165919767981614255287.5WETH
2025-10-18 12:00:01FORECAST2026199937.47230.48833.9801.7055127322.6755127322.345.015512732TF5.472238.47275342.1399521059800.157165919767981614255287.5WETM
2025-10-18 08:00:01FORECAST2026199937.59831.02834.31301.5570874552.5670874552.344.907087455TF5.598238.59875342.1399521059800.160186218995321614255287.5WETM
2025-10-18 04:00:03FORECAST2026199937.72431.71234.71801.5271661792.3971661792.344.737166179TF5.724238.72475342.1399521059800.163244111099561614255287.5WETM
2025-10-18 00:00:01FORECAST2026199937.86830.7434.30401.4208669092.2108669092.344.550866909TF5.868236.86875342.1399521059800.166784860100531614255287.5WETM
2025-10-17 20:00:02FORECAST2026199937.02229.91233.46701.3834653142.1134653142.344.453465314TF5.022237.02275342.1399521059800.146685921716211614255287.5WETM
2025-10-17 16:00:03FORECAST2026199937.11230.233.65601.4007881582.1307881582.344.470788158TF5.112236.11275342.1399521059800.148743599729841614255287.5WETM
2025-10-17 12:00:02FORECAST2026199937.43631.1934.31301.4779535542.0479535542.344.387953554TF5.436236.43675342.1399521059800.156309882386631614255287.5WETM
2025-10-17 08:00:02FORECAST2026199937.3130.39833.85401.4102369822.0402369822.344.380236982TF5.31237.3175342.1399521059800.153337916824321614255287.5WETM
2025-10-17 04:00:03FORECAST2026199936.64430.0233.33201.3811031081.9011031082.344.241103108TF4.644234.64475342.1399521059800.138252405129541614255287.5WETM
2025-10-17 00:00:02FORECAST2026199937.0429.89433.46701.3720479851.9020479852.344.242047985TF5.04237.0475342.1399521059800.14709592598031614255287.5WETM
2025-10-16 20:00:01FORECAST2026199936.98629.67833.33201.3933078391.8933078392.344.233307839TF4.986237.98675342.1399521059800.145868209309781614255287.5WETM
2025-10-16 16:00:01FORECAST2026199937.54429.55233.54801.2763786421.7463786422.344.086378642TF5.544238.54475342.1399521059800.158887201502111614255287.5WETM
2025-10-16 12:00:02FORECAST2026199938.71430.25434.48401.4456700722.0556700722.344.395670072TF6.714239.71475342.1399521059800.188574675305911614255287.5WETM
2025-10-16 08:00:01FORECAST2026199939.32631.06435.19501.5063000262.0263000262.344.366300026TF7.326243.32675342.1399521059800.205379892752371614255287.5WETM
2025-10-16 04:00:03FORECAST2026199939.05630.7434.89801.5035441192.0235441192.344.363544119TF7.056245.05675342.1399521059800.197859036820741614255287.5WETM
2025-10-16 00:00:02FORECAST2026199938.78631.85635.32101.5110244381.8710244382.344.211024438TF6.786241.78675342.1399521059800.190506671961111614255287.5WETM
2025-10-15 20:00:02FORECAST2026199938.3931.6435.01501.4984260061.9084260062.344.248426006TF6.39240.3975342.1399521059800.180030726536881614255287.5WETM
2025-10-15 16:00:02FORECAST2026199938.2131.53234.87101.5106307371.9406307372.344.280630737TF6.21241.2175342.1399521059800.175390594461961614255287.5WETM
2025-10-15 12:00:02FORECAST2026199938.49829.08433.79101.3417330081.8517330082.344.191733008TF6.498241.49875342.1399521059800.182851372136741614255287.5WETM
2025-10-15 08:00:02FORECAST2026199938.62429.71434.16901.3248038651.8448038652.344.184803865TF6.624238.62475342.1399521059800.186176698691721614255287.5WETM
2025-10-15 04:00:07FORECAST2026199938.91229.64234.27701.3255912671.8555912672.344.195591267TF6.912238.91275342.1399521059800.193916716038591614255287.5WETM
2025-10-15 00:00:03FORECAST2026199938.33630.4734.40300.9074808051.5174808052.343.857480805TF6.336239.33675342.1399521059800.178630680688271614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-14 20:00:02FORECAST2026199937.02230.4733.74600.9074808051.5274808052.353.877480805TF5.022237.02275342.1399521059800.146685921716211614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-14 16:00:02FORECAST2026199938.6630.84834.75400.9110241141.5310241142.343.871024114TF6.66240.6675342.1399521059800.187133617791771614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-14 12:00:02FORECAST2026199938.62429.44434.03400.9082682071.8282682072.344.168268207TF6.624239.62475342.1399521059800.186176698691721614255287.5WETM
2025-10-14 08:00:02FORECAST2026199939.39829.60634.50200.9082682071.8182682072.344.158268207TF7.398243.39875342.1399521059800.207413710844421614255287.5WETM
2025-10-14 04:00:05FORECAST2026199939.45230.14634.79900.8137799671.7337799672.344.073779967TF7.452246.45275342.1399521059800.208946842555331614255287.5WETM
2025-10-14 00:00:03FORECAST2026199939.45229.53434.49300.9149611241.4249611242.443.864961124TF7.452253.45275342.1399521059800.208946842555331614245270DRYH
2025-10-13 20:00:04FORECAST2026199938.89428.54433.71900.9149611241.4249611242.453.874961124TF6.894254.89475342.1399521059800.1934273069511614245270DRYH
2025-10-13 16:00:03FORECAST2026199938.96628.72433.84500.874016221.384016222.453.83401622TF6.966254.96675342.1399521059800.195389455400181614245270DRYH
2025-10-13 12:00:02FORECAST2026199938.49830.75834.62800.6657483910.9457483912.453.395748391TF6.498252.49875342.1399521059800.182851372136741614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-13 08:00:03FORECAST2026199938.9329.62434.27700.6657483910.9457483912.463.405748391TF6.93255.9375342.1399521059800.194406877408741614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-13 04:00:04FORECAST2026199938.40829.53433.97100.7157484180.9957484182.463.455748418TF6.408252.40875342.1399521059800.180498931821591614245270DRYH
2025-10-13 00:00:02FORECAST2026199939.88429.19234.53800.7444885911.3744885912.74.074488591TF7.884251.88475342.1399521059800.221449667710041614245270WETM
2025-10-12 20:00:03FORECAST2026199939.90228.97634.43900.7444885911.3744885912.63.974488591TF7.902240.90275342.1399521059800.221979719623221614245270DRYH
2025-10-12 16:00:02FORECAST2026199939.54228.95834.2500.7547248171.3947248172.624.014724817TF7.542240.54275342.1399521059800.21151681447011614245270WETM
2025-10-12 12:00:02FORECAST2026199939.6529.35434.50200.7535437141.0135437142.553.563543714TF7.65240.6575342.1399521059800.214625033607061614245270DRYH
2025-10-12 08:00:02FORECAST2026199936.37429.35432.86400.7535437141.0135437142.693.703543714TF4.374234.37475342.1399521059800.132434202550551614245270DRYH
2025-10-12 04:00:03FORECAST2026199936.35630.84833.60200.8244098941.0344098942.333.364409894TF4.356236.35675342.1399521059800.132052395057891614245270DRYH
2025-10-12 00:00:03FORECAST2026199937.09432.7234.90700.4625986750.7825986752.162.942598675FF5.094226.09475342.1399521059800.148330532549061614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-11 20:00:02FORECAST2026199935.630.32632.96300.4625986750.7825986752.243.022598675FF3.6221.675342.1399521059800.116696366162221614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-11 16:00:03FORECAST2026199935.54630.66833.10700.5633861310.9033861312.313.213386131FF3.546216.54675342.1399521059800.115649935291681614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-11 12:00:03FORECAST2026199933.83628.92231.37900.8649610971.5449610972.363.904961097TF1.836219.83675342.1399521059800.0858800114019011614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-11 08:00:04FORECAST2026199933.83628.92231.37900.8649610971.5349610972.393.924961097TF1.836220.83675342.1399521059800.0858800114019011614255287.5DRYVH
2025-10-11 04:00:04FORECAST2026199936.3228.47232.39600.6657483911.2557483912.373.625748391TF4.32224.3275342.1399521059800.131291052329521614245270DRYH
2025-10-11 00:00:03FORECAST2026199932.70227.06829.88500.6283467961.3283467962.383.708346796TF0.702200.70275342.1399521059800.0695591411437241614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 20:00:02FORECAST2026199932.34226.81629.57900.6629924841.3429924842.664.002992484TF0.342207.34275342.1399521059800.0649097949033581614245270WETL
2025-10-10 16:00:03FORECAST2026199933.76427.39230.57800.5992129221.1292129222.543.669212922TF1.764209.76475342.1399521059800.0847655307390121614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 12:00:03FORECAST2026199933.6223.01828.31900.1157480940.9557480942.533.485748094TF1.62217.6275342.1399521059800.0825690518448171614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-10 08:00:03FORECAST2026199933.6223.01828.31900.1157480940.9557480942.473.425748094TF1.62218.6275342.1399521059800.0825690518448171614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-10 04:00:05FORECAST2026199933.83627.9530.89300.2759844011.0959844012.593.685984401TF1.836218.83675342.1399521059800.0858800114019011614245270DRYH
2025-10-10 00:00:02FORECAST2026199929.1219.5824.3500.0149606380.1349606382.282.414960638FF-2.88202.1275342.1399521059800.0332594261976471614225235DRYL
2025-10-09 20:00:03FORECAST2026199929.1219.5824.3500.0149606380.1349606382.362.494960638FF-2.88206.1275342.1399521059800.0332594261976471614225235DRYL
2025-10-09 16:00:02FORECAST2026199938.13829.55233.84500.0255905650.2455905652.192.435590565FF6.138227.13875342.1399521059800.173555912823961614225235DRYL
2025-10-09 12:00:03FORECAST2026199940.53239.16439.848000.21.962.16FF8.532239.53275342.1399521059800.240981305836471614225235DRYL
2025-10-09 08:00:03FORECAST2026199940.53239.16439.848000.22.072.27FF8.532236.53275342.1399521059800.240981305836471614225235DRYL
2025-10-09 04:00:04FORECAST2026199933.04432.932.972000.292.152.44FF1.044222.04475342.1399521059800.0742087606505231614225235DRYL