Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 18, 2025

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DAY 18 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/19/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.64°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.07°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.35°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.375 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 242 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.02 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.02 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.28 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.27 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 76 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.11 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 98 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-19 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2026	18	98	44.63996	32.07002	38.35499	0	0.38	0.38	3.18	3.56	T	F	12.63996	241.63996	76	343.10999603722	0	0.37473585098701	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-19 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	18	98	44.006	32.036	38.021	0	1.306299918	1.306299918	3.18	4.486299918	T	F	12.006	241.006	76	343.10999603722	0	0.35010753758369	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	M
2025-10-18 12:00:01	FORECAST	2026	18	98	43.826	31.676	37.751	0	0.974803676	0.974803676	3.18	4.154803676	T	F	11.826	240.826	76	343.10999603722	0	0.34322299438484	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-18 08:00:01	FORECAST	2026	18	98	43.916	32.126	38.021	0	1.005118653	1.005118653	3.18	4.185118653	T	F	11.916	240.916	76	343.10999603722	0	0.34665893946428	16	2	4	2	4	5	2	80	WET	M
2025-10-18 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	44.006	32.468	38.237	0	0.872835117	0.872835117	3.18	4.052835117	T	F	12.006	241.006	76	343.10999603722	0	0.35010753758369	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-18 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	18	98	43.412	31.262	37.337	0	0.790157907	0.790157907	3.18	3.970157907	T	F	11.412	239.412	76	343.10999603722	0	0.32758764420202	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	43.034	30.902	36.968	0	0.731102757	0.731102757	3.18	3.911102757	T	F	11.034	240.034	76	343.10999603722	0	0.31357022911516	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-17 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	42.26	31.532	36.896	0	0.734646066	0.734646066	3.18	3.914646066	T	F	10.26	239.26	76	343.10999603722	0	0.28570852757919	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-17 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	42.35	31.766	37.058	0	0.572834955	0.572834955	3.18	3.752834955	T	F	10.35	239.35	76	343.10999603722	0	0.28888711171066	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-17 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	41.684	31.748	36.716	0	0.593701108	0.633701108	3.18	3.813701108	T	F	9.684	239.684	76	343.10999603722	0	0.26576912958392	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-17 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	41.018	31.028	36.023	0	0.521653825	0.521653825	3.18	3.701653825	T	F	9.018	238.018	76	343.10999603722	0	0.24362661137015	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2025-10-17 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	41.954	31.064	36.509	0	0.520866423	0.530866423	3.18	3.710866423	T	F	9.954	239.954	76	343.10999603722	0	0.27502747797264	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-16 20:00:01	FORECAST	2026	18	98	42.422	31.154	36.788	0	0.477165612	0.497165612	3.18	3.677165612	T	F	10.422	241.422	76	343.10999603722	0	0.29144188797754	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-16 16:00:01	FORECAST	2026	18	98	42.242	31.172	36.707	0	0.465748283	0.465748283	3.18	3.645748283	T	F	10.242	241.242	76	343.10999603722	0	0.28507481073435	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	41.702	32.324	37.013	0	0.588582995	0.608582995	3.18	3.788582995	T	F	9.702	240.702	76	343.10999603722	0	0.26638140901288	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-16 08:00:01	FORECAST	2026	18	98	43.394	32.45	37.922	0	0.520079021	0.520079021	3.18	3.700079021	T	F	11.394	244.394	76	343.10999603722	0	0.32691440662241	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	43.88	32.468	38.174	0	0.51968532	0.51968532	3.18	3.69968532	T	F	11.88	245.88	76	343.10999603722	0	0.34528302894887	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-16 00:00:01	FORECAST	2026	18	98	44.618	32.936	38.777	0	0.355512003	0.355512003	3.18	3.535512003	F	F	12.618	242.618	76	343.10999603722	0	0.37387346228689	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	44.222	32.63	38.426	0	0.408267937	0.408267937	3.18	3.588267937	T	F	12.222	242.222	76	343.10999603722	0	0.35843427109467	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	44.708	32.18	38.444	0	0.400393917	0.430393917	3.18	3.610393917	T	F	12.708	242.708	76	343.10999603722	0	0.37741180316626	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	45.77	32.936	39.353	0	0.450000243	0.510000243	3.18	3.690000243	T	F	13.77	242.77	76	343.10999603722	0	0.41986580504031	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	42.8	32.972	37.886	0	0.470472695	0.520472695	3.18	3.700472695	T	F	10.8	239.8	76	343.10999603722	0	0.30502403241052	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-15 04:00:07	FORECAST	2026	18	98	43.448	33.08	38.264	0	0.485433333	0.525433333	3.18	3.705433333	T	F	11.448	240.448	76	343.10999603722	0	0.32893579942359	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	43.106	33.584	38.345	0	0.573622357	0.613622357	3.18	3.793622357	T	F	11.106	241.106	76	343.10999603722	0	0.31622036175605	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	43.124	32.45	37.787	0	0.583464882	0.633464882	3.18	3.813464882	T	F	11.124	240.124	76	343.10999603722	0	0.31688437852063	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-14 16:00:01	FORECAST	2026	18	98	44.528	33.44	38.984	0	0.583858583	0.623858583	3.18	3.803858583	T	F	12.528	241.528	76	343.10999603722	0	0.37034571432587	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	44.186	33.134	38.66	0	0.856299675	0.916299675	3.18	4.096299675	T	F	12.186	241.186	76	343.10999603722	0	0.35704167386472	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-14 08:00:01	FORECAST	2026	18	98	44.042	33.026	38.534	0	0.856299675	0.906299675	3.18	4.086299675	T	F	12.042	244.042	76	343.10999603722	0	0.35149046289156	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-14 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	18	98	44.564	33.422	38.993	0	0.868110705	0.918110705	3.18	4.098110705	T	F	12.564	246.564	76	343.10999603722	0	0.3717555247728	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	45.446	34.502	39.974	0	0.502756177	0.512756177	3.28	3.792756177	T	F	13.446	254.446	76	343.10999603722	0	0.40678971310023	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	45.032	35.114	40.073	0	0.502756177	0.512756177	3.29	3.802756177	T	F	13.032	256.032	76	343.10999603722	0	0.39023323951038	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	45.428	35.15	40.289	0	0.503149878	0.513149878	3.29	3.803149878	T	F	13.428	256.428	76	343.10999603722	0	0.40606615824182	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2025-10-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	45.392	35.168	40.28	0	0.254330846	0.284330846	3.29	3.574330846	F	F	13.392	254.392	76	343.10999603722	0	0.40462001277716	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	46.904	35.726	41.315	0	0.254330846	0.284330846	3.3	3.584330846	F	F	14.904	256.904	76	343.10999603722	0	0.46623893954046	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	46.274	35.006	40.64	0	0.24803163	0.28803163	3.29	3.57803163	F	F	14.274	254.274	76	343.10999603722	0	0.44037816357687	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-13 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	44.6	34.754	39.677	0	0.572047553	0.652047553	3.52	4.172047553	T	F	12.6	251.6	76	343.10999603722	0	0.37316705645897	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	43.358	33.386	38.372	0	0.572047553	0.652047553	3.42	4.072047553	T	F	11.358	241.358	76	343.10999603722	0	0.32556962087306	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-12 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	43.754	32.252	38.003	0	0.583071181	0.663071181	3.44	4.103071181	T	F	11.754	240.754	76	343.10999603722	0	0.34048351719142	16	2	4	2	3	5	2	60	WET	M
2025-10-12 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	44.168	34.736	39.452	0	0.250000135	0.270000135	3.38	3.650000135	T	F	12.168	241.168	76	343.10999603722	0	0.35634608712676	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-12 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	41.432	32.99	37.211	0	0.250000135	0.270000135	3.52	3.790000135	T	F	9.432	238.432	76	343.10999603722	0	0.25727268878426	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-12 04:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	42.17	31.658	36.914	0	0.214960746	0.224960746	3.16	3.384960746	F	F	10.17	240.17	76	343.10999603722	0	0.28254665974878	16	2	4	2	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2025-10-12 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	40.604	29.498	35.051	0	0.241732414	0.331732414	2.99	3.321732414	F	F	8.604	228.604	76	343.10999603722	0	0.23038061991937	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2025-10-11 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	41.036	27.608	34.322	0	0.241732414	0.331732414	3.07	3.401732414	F	F	9.036	226.036	76	343.10999603722	0	0.24421169218747	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2025-10-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	39.272	26.24	32.756	0	0.233070992	0.353070992	3.14	3.493070992	F	F	7.272	221.272	76	343.10999603722	0	0.19060502346157	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2025-10-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	37.508	26.582	32.045	0	0.324803325	0.794803325	3.09	3.884803325	T	F	5.508	225.508	76	343.10999603722	0	0.1448945633726	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2025-10-11 08:00:04	FORECAST	2026	18	98	37.31	27.266	32.288	0	0.324803325	0.784803325	3.12	3.904803325	T	F	5.31	227.31	76	343.10999603722	0	0.14026685459388	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2025-10-11 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	18	98	37.706	27.536	32.621	0	0.235433198	0.695433198	3.1	3.795433198	T	F	5.706	227.706	76	343.10999603722	0	0.14962368601563	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2025-10-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	32.18	25.412	28.796	0	0.18897648	0.85897648	3.06	3.91897648	T	F	0.18	208.18	76	343.10999603722	0	0.053502786629001	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2025-10-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	31.982	25.268	28.625	0	0.182283563	0.832283563	3.35	4.182283563	T	F	-0.018000000000001	214.982	76	343.10999603722	0	0.051299040974078	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	L
2025-10-10 16:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	33.692	24.458	29.075	0	0.103543363	0.683543363	3.23	3.913543363	T	F	1.692	215.692	76	343.10999603722	0	0.072881264242988	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2025-10-10 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	35.384	28.148	31.766	0	0.07086618	0.84086618	3.37	4.21086618	T	F	3.384	224.384	76	343.10999603722	0	0.10045485822461	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	L
2025-10-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	35.384	28.148	31.766	0	0.07086618	0.84086618	3.31	4.15086618	T	F	3.384	225.384	76	343.10999603722	0	0.10045485822461	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	L
2025-10-10 04:00:05	FORECAST	2026	18	98	36.554	27.248	31.901	0	0.053149635	0.823149635	3.43	4.253149635	T	F	4.554	224.554	76	343.10999603722	0	0.12352447434532	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	WET	L
2025-10-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	34.43	27.122	30.776	0	0.07480319	0.12480319	3.12	3.24480319	F	F	2.43	213.43	76	343.10999603722	0	0.084099961257901	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2025-10-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	34.43	27.122	30.776	0	0.07480319	0.12480319	3.2	3.32480319	F	F	2.43	217.43	76	343.10999603722	0	0.084099961257901	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2025-10-09 16:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	38.12	32.018	35.069	0	0.155118194	0.215118194	3.03	3.245118194	F	F	6.12	229.12	76	343.10999603722	0	0.15984030213049	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2025-10-09 12:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	48.164	36.752	42.458	0	0.183070965	0.203070965	2.8	3.003070965	F	F	16.164	239.164	76	343.10999603722	0	0.51828027617607	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-09 08:00:02	FORECAST	2026	18	98	48.164	36.752	42.458	0	0.183070965	0.203070965	2.91	3.113070965	F	F	16.164	236.164	76	343.10999603722	0	0.51828027617607	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-09 04:00:04	FORECAST	2026	18	98	48.038	33.62	40.829	0	0.18110246	0.29110246	2.99	3.28110246	F	F	16.038	229.038	76	343.10999603722	0	0.51307552230205	16	3	4	2	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2025-10-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	35.78	32.54	34.16	0	0	0.23	3.12	3.35	F	F	3.78	209.78	76	343.10999603722	0	0.10788350491107	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2025-10-08 20:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	35.78	32.54	34.16	0	0	0.23	3.31	3.54	F	F	3.78	208.78	76	343.10999603722	0	0.10788350491107	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2025-10-08 16:00:04	FORECAST	2026	18	98	34.124	33.134	33.629	0	0.002362206	0.522362206	3.19	3.712362206	T	F	2.124	206.124	76	343.10999603722	0	0.07930083171273	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2025-10-08 12:00:04	FORECAST	2026	18	98	34.142	32.486	33.314	0	0	0.44	3.64	4.08	T	F	2.142	214.142	76	343.10999603722	0	0.079577287412653	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	WET	M
2025-10-08 08:00:03	FORECAST	2026	18	98	34.142	32.486	33.314	0	0	0.44	3.51	3.95	T	F	2.142	207.142	76	343.10999603722	0	0.079577287412653	16	1	4	2	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2025-10-08 04:00:07	FORECAST	2026	18	98	40.388	39.83	40.109	0	0	0.08	3.47	3.55	F	F	8.388	216.388	76	343.10999603722	0	0.22363251647159	16	1	4	2	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L