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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 17, 2025

[ Thursday, October 16, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, October 18, 2025 ]

DAY 17 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/18/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.86°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.72°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.79°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.197
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 244

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.31 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.36 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 77
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 344.08 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 97

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-10-18 04:00:02OBSERVATION2026179738.8599832.7235.789990003.293.29FF6.85998243.8599877344.07636079638 00.1965902920552816 14215217.5DRYL
2025-10-18 00:00:01FORECAST2026179738.1231.71234.9160003.293.29FF6.12243.1277344.0763607963800.177408308432641614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-17 12:00:01FORECAST2026179738.85832.1835.5190003.293.29FF6.858243.85877344.0763607963800.196537348593471614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-17 08:00:01FORECAST2026179739.9232.34236.13100.0413386050.0413386053.293.331338605FF7.92244.9277344.0763607963800.226156254371951614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-17 04:00:03FORECAST2026179739.27231.47835.3750003.293.29FF7.272244.27277344.0763607963800.207794057323491614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-17 00:00:01FORECAST2026179740.17231.49635.83400.0102362260.0102362263.293.300236226FF8.172245.17277344.0763607963800.233537012763031614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-16 20:00:01FORECAST2026179740.24431.78436.01400.0173228440.0173228443.293.307322844FF8.244246.24477344.0763607963800.235670037006781614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-16 16:00:01FORECAST2026179740.02831.92835.9780003.293.29FF8.028246.02877344.0763607963800.229303208954171614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-16 12:00:01FORECAST2026179740.38832.84636.61700.0204724520.0204724523.293.310472452FF8.388246.38877344.0763607963800.239968085923461614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-16 08:00:01FORECAST2026179741.30633.15237.2290003.293.29FF9.306248.30677344.0763607963800.268344257941271624215220DRYL
2025-10-16 04:00:02FORECAST2026179741.50433.02637.2650003.293.29FF9.504248.50477344.0763607963800.274678344834641624215220DRYL
2025-10-16 00:00:01FORECAST2026179740.71233.54837.130003.293.29FF8.712244.71277344.0763607963800.249792801294781624215220DRYL
2025-10-15 20:00:01FORECAST2026179740.42433.60237.0130003.293.29FF8.424245.42477344.0763607963800.241049228010041614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-15 16:00:02FORECAST2026179740.11833.1736.64400.0271653690.0271653693.293.317165369FF8.118245.11877344.0763607963800.23194428507341614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-15 12:00:02FORECAST2026179740.11833.96237.0400.0598425520.0598425523.293.349842552FF8.118244.11877344.0763607963800.23194428507341614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-15 08:00:02FORECAST2026179740.0133.81836.91400.0496063260.0496063263.293.339606326FF8.01244.0177344.0763607963800.228777020790291614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-15 04:00:06FORECAST2026179740.26234.05237.15700.0444882130.0444882133.293.334488213FF8.262244.26277344.0763607963800.236204964303691614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-15 00:00:02FORECAST2026179740.60434.66437.63400.0377952960.0377952963.293.327795296FF8.604244.60477344.0763607963800.246494389366421614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-14 20:00:02FORECAST2026179740.87434.2537.56200.0421260070.0521260073.293.342126007FF8.874243.87477344.0763607963800.254783957501511624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 16:00:01FORECAST2026179741.01835.04238.0300.0409449040.0409449043.293.330944904FF9.018244.01877344.0763607963800.259263918268791624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 12:00:02FORECAST2026179741.10833.27837.19300.0578740470.0578740473.293.347874047FF9.108244.10877344.0763607963800.262084396441341624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 08:00:01FORECAST202617974133.06237.03100.0543307380.0543307383.293.344330738FF924777344.0763607963800.258701708321581624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 04:00:04FORECAST2026179741.41433.54837.48100.0547244390.0547244393.293.344724439FF9.414249.41477344.0763607963800.271790104001621624215220DRYL
2025-10-14 00:00:02FORECAST2026179742.8934.82638.85800.0125984320.0125984323.393.402598432FF10.89255.8977344.0763607963800.320964605730131624215220DRYL
2025-10-13 20:00:03FORECAST2026179742.81835.56439.19100.0066929170.0066929173.43.406692917FF10.818257.81877344.0763607963800.318481422596961624215220DRYL
2025-10-13 16:00:03FORECAST2026179743.1635.45639.30800.0066929170.0066929173.43.406692917FF11.16258.1677344.0763607963800.330347263785621624215220DRYL
2025-10-13 12:00:02FORECAST2026179742.45834.4338.44400.0287401730.0287401733.43.428740173FF10.458256.45877344.0763607963800.306189148611581624215220DRYL
2025-10-13 08:00:02FORECAST2026179742.83634.71838.77700.0287401730.0287401733.413.438740173FF10.836256.83677344.0763607963800.319101460671091624215220DRYL
2025-10-13 04:00:03FORECAST2026179742.22433.7137.96700.0307086780.0407086783.43.440708678FF10.224255.22477344.0763607963800.298313369700621624215220DRYL
2025-10-13 00:00:02FORECAST2026179741.68433.11637.400.0641732630.0841732633.633.714173263TF9.684253.68477344.0763607963800.280499795923921624215220DRYL
2025-10-12 20:00:02FORECAST2026179739.93832.43236.18500.0641732630.0841732633.533.614173263FF7.938244.93877344.0763607963800.226679048740591614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-12 16:00:02FORECAST2026179739.88431.83835.86100.0645669640.0845669643.553.634566964FF7.884243.88477344.0763607963800.225112708826691614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-12 12:00:02FORECAST2026179741.82833.04437.43600.0070866180.0170866183.493.507086618FF9.828243.82877344.0763607963800.285199495639121624215220DRYL
2025-10-12 08:00:01FORECAST2026179741.86434.08837.97600.0070866180.0170866183.633.647086618FF9.864243.86477344.0763607963800.286380250458711624215220DRYL
2025-10-12 04:00:03FORECAST2026179741.41433.38637.400.0027559070.0127559073.273.282755907FF9.414245.41477344.0763607963800.271790104001621624215220DRYL
2025-10-12 00:00:02FORECAST2026179736.0530.32633.18800.0783464990.0883464993.13.188346499FF4.05235.0577344.0763607963800.130262452547351614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-11 20:00:02FORECAST2026179734.71828.56231.6400.0783464990.0883464993.183.268346499FF2.718231.71877344.0763607963800.104952371276451614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-11 16:00:02FORECAST2026179733.60228.45431.02800.1066929710.1166929713.253.366692971FF1.602228.60277344.0763607963800.0866481346132351614225235DRYL
2025-10-11 12:00:02FORECAST2026179734.35827.33830.84800.3649608270.4749608273.23.674960827TF2.358235.35877344.0763607963800.0987658464084921614225235DRYL
2025-10-11 08:00:03FORECAST2026179734.91627.53631.22600.350393890.460393893.233.69039389TF2.916236.91677344.0763607963800.108471847794341614225235DRYL
2025-10-11 04:00:04FORECAST2026179736.89628.20232.54900.3452757770.4552757773.213.665275777TF4.896236.89677344.0763607963800.14836900204421614225235DRYL
2025-10-11 00:00:02FORECAST2026179732.46828.07630.27200.5070868880.6670868883.173.837086888TF0.468223.46877344.0763607963800.0705991112325721614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-10 20:00:02FORECAST2026179733.85427.10430.47900.4972443630.6472443633.464.107244363TF1.854229.85477344.0763607963800.0905577692203691614235252.5WETL
2025-10-10 16:00:03FORECAST2026179733.87226.47430.17300.425197080.575197083.343.91519708TF1.872228.87277344.0763607963800.090841943787691614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-10 12:00:03FORECAST2026179735.9630.1133.03500.767716950.767716953.484.24771695TF3.96235.9677344.0763607963800.128430037655951614235252.5WETM
2025-10-10 08:00:02FORECAST2026179736.44630.68633.56600.767716950.767716953.424.18771695TF4.446237.44677344.0763607963800.138538840849271614235252.5WETM
2025-10-10 04:00:04FORECAST2026179735.52829.42632.47700.7688980530.7688980533.544.308898053TF3.528234.52877344.0763607963800.119883136626971614235252.5WETM
2025-10-10 00:00:02FORECAST2026179739.57829.87634.72700.047244120.047244123.233.27724412FF7.578225.57877344.0763607963800.216353272626991614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-09 20:00:02FORECAST2026179739.57829.87634.72700.047244120.047244123.313.35724412FF7.578229.57877344.0763607963800.216353272626991614215217.5DRYL
2025-10-09 16:00:02FORECAST2026179742.15234.23238.19200.0570866450.0570866453.143.197086645FF10.152238.15277344.0763607963800.29590872123611624215220DRYL
2025-10-09 12:00:03FORECAST2026179746.54434.740.62200.0192913490.0192913492.912.929291349FF14.544237.54477344.0763607963800.45521850470471624215220DRYL
2025-10-09 08:00:02FORECAST2026179746.54434.740.62200.0192913490.0192913493.023.039291349FF14.544234.54477344.0763607963800.45521850470471624215220DRYL
2025-10-09 04:00:04FORECAST2026179744.94234.84439.89300.1110236820.1110236823.13.211023682FF12.942227.94277344.0763607963800.394720303791371624225240DRYM
2025-10-09 00:00:02FORECAST2026179740.0133.63836.82400.0547244390.2347244393.233.464724439FF8.01221.0177344.0763607963800.228777020790291614225235DRYL
2025-10-08 20:00:02FORECAST2026179740.0133.63836.82400.0547244390.2347244393.423.654724439TF8.01220.0177344.0763607963800.228777020790291614225235DRYL
2025-10-08 16:00:04FORECAST2026179738.5731.76635.16800.240157610.520157613.33.82015761TF6.57218.5777344.0763607963800.188928567655431614235252.5DRYMH
2025-10-08 12:00:04FORECAST2026179747.89430.41639.15500.1059055690.5659055693.624.185905569TF15.894226.89477344.0763607963800.507081253706721634235267.5WETM
2025-10-08 08:00:03FORECAST2026179747.89430.41639.15500.1059055690.5659055693.494.055905569TF15.894219.89477344.0763607963800.507081253706721634235267.5WETM
2025-10-08 04:00:07FORECAST2026179752.37630.99241.68400.0031496080.2231496083.443.663149608TF20.376223.37677344.0763607963800.673697314220631634225245DRYM
2025-10-08 00:00:04FORECAST2026179744.40231.31637.859000.033.693.72TF12.402210.40277344.0763607963800.374812910511651624215220DRYL
2025-10-07 20:00:05FORECAST2026179744.40231.31637.859000.033.663.69FF12.402211.40277344.0763607963800.374812910511651624215220DRYL
2025-10-07 16:00:03FORECAST2026179746.29232.23439.263000.023.543.56FF14.292211.29277344.0763607963800.445595034975071624215220DRYL
2025-10-07 12:00:05FORECAST2026179750.5443.41246.9760003.573.57FF18.54222.5477344.0763607963800.607580476380671634215222.5DRYL
2025-10-07 08:00:03FORECAST2026179750.5443.41246.9760003.553.55FF18.54223.5477344.0763607963800.607580476380671634215222.5DRYL
2025-10-07 04:00:04FORECAST2026179742.63841.43242.0350003.713.71FF10.638206.63877344.0763607963800.312309195210791624215220DRYL